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I wouldn't read too much into the percentages. Certainly when I drafted examples in my valuation reports or helped lawyers to do them, I would make sure they couldn't be construed as relating to anything 'actual'. But the substance behind those (or at least my interpretation) is representing that MA has a right of first refusal / is the expected purchaser, if it happens, of S&J's shares (or at least within the short/medium term). @shefcanary FWIW, I don't think a deferred consideration route is likely. I'm not aware of any takeover in a football club with such a mechanism (though it's common outside of football and of course in player transfers!). I only offered it as an example of why I think we're likely not in a 'straightforward' deal scenario (note: there are ways you can structure deferred consideration via loan notes to delay GCT being triggered). My interpretation of the 'delay' is that this is coming form our point of view. I imagine the people involved don't see it like that. They've set up the mechanism for shooting the starting pistol (the allotment) but are currently making sure the track is all clear. You want there to be as little obstacle between you and the finish line as possible. Basically a checklist you tick off. Just to be clear, I have absolutely no contacts at the club or any inside knowledge. I only come at it as someone who has worked on some deals and, maybe more importantly, been the person who analyses the ones that have gone wrong. My hope is that my posts are of some interest to fellow fans and that I can explain these things in an approachable way (hopefully the antithesis of Mello's post!) I'm under no illusion that for most people finance is incredibly boring, but maybe a little interesting here as it involves something we all care deeply about.

Imagine if there was a thread created for it but you just happened to miss it 🙃😉😂

Til, this is almost certainly the most important issue faced by Norwich City Football Club in quarter of a century. It will quite likely have a fundamental influence on the direction of travel - and likelihood of increased success or otherwise - of the club and team for perhaps the next decade. If there was ever a time for interested minds to kick around possibilities, implications and possible outcomes, then this is surely it? Parma

Mello, you'll be glad to know I've been focusing elsewhere for a while, too busy to come on here, i do have another life. Indulge me in some musings following catching up on another three pages on this thread over the weekend. The current valuation of the club has been set at £100m by the issue of the convertible C preference shares being effectively 10% of Ordinary shares at a cost of £10m. Now it may be the trigger event linked to any conversion might not happen, thus a different valuation could be inputed. Additionally the potential allotment of 194,814 shares, which of itself doesn't change the value of the club, could reduce the value of each share. If Smith & Jones do not take any of this allotment, their share of the club would also reduce. So, if Attanasio did acquire a large proportion of Smith & Jones' shares in order to gain effective control of the club, there would be a significant capital gain arising, potentially as high as £40m, on which tax at up to 40% could be payable. It is likely Smith & Jones will be taking tax advice to try and minimise the tax payable on the capital gain. Note here that the tax would be payable in the following tax year to the completion of the deal, and I believe it will be payable at that time irrespective of any deferred consideration. This makes me feel it is unlikely deferred consideration would feature in such a deal, as I do not believe Smith & Jones have access to finance elsewhere to cover such a tax charge other than from the consideration itself. However one reason for delay in progressing the takeover could be that Smith & Jones are creating a new charitable trust to gift their gain which could avoid some of the capital gains tax, whilst also creating a vehicle that could be a community charity with some form of say over future direction of the club. I am only thinking outside of the box here, but we know Smith & Jones are keen that any new owner should have the interests of the fans and local community at the forefront of their decisions after they gain control. By gifting both proceeds and some legacy shareholding (say 10% of the total club shareholding), Smith & Jones could ensure they minimise tax liability but create some form of attributable "watchdog" to ensure the future controlling owner cannot sell the club "down the river". The creation of such a charity is complicated and would take a lot of legal steps, not least clearance from the Charities Commission. Such clearance takes several months at the moment, I have current experience of this. It's only my supposition, but just another reason for the delay in progress which may have been underestimated by the club's advisers. Or something similar. Or a straightforward deal has already been done. Or the deal is off. Anyone with any other thoughts on the source of a delay?

We had Farkeball. Then we had Smith's 'pragmatism', whatever that was (to me it looked like doing something different every week without any underlying philosophy in the hope that eventually something would turn up). And now we have a manager who prefers a Klopp-style hard-pressing approach. As a result, we seem to have a bunch of players, some of whom are suited to A, some to B, and hardly anyone to C. But presumably the next transfer window will add to the Cs. I thought the rationale for a Director of Football was that this provided continuity within the club irrespective of managerial changes.

The Social Club hosted a fun-filled pop-up stall at the Carrow Park FanZone earlier today, before the Norwich City Women’s game at Carrow Road. The FanZone was buzzing with excitement and had a fantastic atmosphere, with a brilliant turnout. The stall was run by Norwich City Fans Social Club volunteers, Bev, Mike, and Amy. They had plenty of activities planned to keep fans entertained. The pop-up stall had freebies for children, competitions, and great prizes up for grabs. There was a ‘Name of the teddy bear’ competition and fans could also try their luck with the ‘Guess the number of sweets in the jar’ competition, with the winner taking home a jar of sweets. Additionally, fans could participate in a lucky dip to win signed Norwich City Women’s team glossy posters. The UEFA Women’s Euro trophy lifted by the Lionesses in 2022 was also available in the FanZone for fans to take photos with the prestigious trophy. Norwich City Fans Social Club was delighted to meet fans and make some new friends. The event was a fantastic opportunity for fans to show their support for Norwich City Women’s team and enjoy a great day out. 💛💚⚽

There are plenty of ways to do it. Not wishing to attract the ire of Til too much I can outline three possibilities. First, Smith & Jones could agree a deal to sell their whole stake at a lower price on the condition that Mr Attanasio commits to invest that amount, or more, into the club over a defined period. So say S&J sell at price which is £20m less than 'market value', Mr Attanasio agrees to put in £10m of extra equity (or non-repayable loans) in year 1 and then another £10m in year 2. This is similar to what Abramovich and Boehly agreed to with Chelsea where Boehly has committed to investing a certain amount of money to improve the club post deal. Second, S&J can agree to some of the money they receive for the shares being paid at a later date and potentially dependent on certain conditions being met. This is called 'deferred consideration'. A common form of this is where the consideration is dependent on future profits and some kind of profit share is agreed (often called an 'earn out'). For example, some of the money S&J would receive could be tied to the club gaining promotion back to the Premier league within a certain number of years. Third, S&J might instead just sell some of their shares at 'market value' but keep a minority stake in the club. That might be at the 25% level conferring them some rights or via an agreement which allows them to keep a say in the running of the club. This has become quite a popular way to keep experienced and 'popular' owners at clubs but allowing for new investment. Perhaps the most prominent example is at Crystal Palace where the original 'saviours' of the club still own a minority stake and, in the case of Steve Parish, a significant say in operations in his role as Chairman. All that said, 'option 3' (or some derivative of it) would seem to me to be the most likely scenario due to its simplicity and possibility of keeping many masters happy. I'm sure the lawyers are all working very hard to come up with an elegant solution. Regardless, it's clear to me that the allotment of shares is more complex than a simple deal which would have been completed by now. I also imagine that the beginning of the baseball season plus the mini-banking crisis has likely occupied Mr Attanasio somewhat. That, plus the current uncertain end to the season, suggests to me that we won't hear anything more until at least after the season ends. I echo @Parma Ham's gone mouldy very wise comment that this is likely the most important situation at the club. Arguably since the share rights issue some 20 years ago. That is instructive because, in my opinion, the club got that right. You need only look at the very many 'sleeping giants' that are still struggling to recover from the ITV digital fiasco after all this time (maybe that club down the road could said to have been in one of the longest comas of all). The long and short is that football is a game of money and the amount and quality of that money is arguably the single largest determinant of the fortunes of the football club. So getting it right is paramount.

I think Pukki hasn’t scored in 12 - abysmal for your main striker. I suppose that run must end sometime, but I’d only be using him from the bench for the remainder of the season.

So all the other posters who have shared their limited thoughts on this thread can now go home and boil their heads...

Very well said. Personally I have found this thread very informative and thought-provoking. This and the 'State of the Nation' thread are this board at its best. Thoughtful and interesting comments, helped along by by people with genuine expertise. Obviously it's been fashionable in recent years to declare 'we've had enough of experts' and to denigrate thoughtfulness or intellectualism, but I'd mildly suggest that didn't get us very far.

Byram for Jacob, Jacob as DM & Gibbs for Nacho. Marchinos looks solid but stolid - a slight upgrade on Sinani - so would give Tzolis a go. He at least gives flashes of goal scoring talent. However I don't think Onel is properly fit so might have to keep Marchinos & start with Tzolis instead of Onel.

I wouldn't say he's failed. He has however found numerous ways not to succeed.

They are, and you do. Since professional football began in England around the late 1880s finance has arguably always been the most significant factor in determining success and failure. Over the decades the source of that money has changed several times, often resulting in fluctuating fortunes for clubs (not least Norwich City) but not its importance.

Went to it today, took my granddaughter to her first ever game, she loved it! Sat just in front of Directors Box, no sign of Delia and Mickey, but good old Stuart and family were there. im sure it’s the most entertaining game there’s been at Carrow Road for a few months lol!

I would imagine that some kind of formal arrangement was put in place. Usually a step in a deal is to agree a Term Sheet or Memorandum of Understanding or Letter of Intent (as a non-lawyer the distinction was always lost on me). It basically sets out some general principles and aims of what is trying to be achieved. For example you might say person A is interested in acquiring a stake in Company C. Person B is interested in selling their stake to Person A. As a first step person A will at first seek to acquire a minority interest in Company C. If this arrangement is successful, Person A will intend to buy out Person B and Person B will seek to sell to Person A. It will then set out some steps on the road to getting there.

Well as no one like us inferior average joe supporting simpletons would ever appear on BBC2 Universally Challenged or Mastermind. Then we thicko lot will just have to tolerate being preached to by the Punk um resident pseudo interlektools who whilst giving their opinion and theories, they actually also don't really know what's really occurring in the corridors of dour at Carra.... So unfortunately we onlooking numpties will just have to work around the clash of the clever clogs surmising wiv their educated egoism's an' how they can't help noticing how they are incredibly smarter than the less than average intelligence punk um poster..... When actually all us average joe majority type of posters wanna do is moan, whinge, grunt, f@rt wheeze an' belch an' talk about how carp we are/were, team selection etc an proper footy stuff like sack Webbo, the board and anyone else that we see fit.....and that's including the norm to personally snipe and point score against those of different political persuasion, how they should support the club or that drum's feckin tinpot....or maybe carry on with their long continuing disagreements and personal vendettas that occasionally resurface on here.....well not occasionally, but all of the time..... Us dunces and failed 11 plus peasants will just have to keep googling them big wurdz the punk um educated use and to see what they mean as we continue to despise the resident academically astute and creamy clever clogs.....Who lets face it, in reality these billy no mate types really only use this forum to strut their air of superiority smuggy stuff as they've actually got nowhere else to go....and if they went onto a forum that did have real academic folk interacting? Then our punk um pretentious pseudo interlektools would be out of their depth on there like what the type of I am on here.....ain't I? Coz anyway if them pseudo's on here were in the boozer after the game and spoke to me an' me mates like they pout an' pontificate on here...Me an' the lads would all say in unison 'flug orft yer borin' tiresome arrogant saddo tweed jacket an' pressed slack wearin' geeks!'... An' then we'd guffaw really hard (in unison) into their cabbage patch kid faces - and then we'd turn our backs on 'em and carry on with proper bloke talk an swiggin' proper 6% ale and eatin' nobby's nuts (that's not a euphemism by the way) and certainly not imbibing on overly expensive hip dude 'yah yah absolutely' craft wee wee beer or bleedin' babycham with a splash o' blackcurrant....or just a non-alcoholic J2O bottle thingy coz they're out in the Porsche....If it's not proppa ale then it's all tasteless flamin' pee water an' devil's tiddle.... Anyway if these Punk um resident pretentious pseudo interlektools were the high flyin' big salary earning living in big houses pubic skool edumikated academics that they purport to be? I'm pretty sure that they wouldn't find valuable time to come on a two bit footy forum to flex their air of intellectual smug superiority and arrogance. I mean the real clever old feckers would have an allotment or a hobby like crown green bowls, maybe a thrice weekly quick 9 holes of "whoosh foogit where's it gorn?" Or twice or thrice a year on a cruise which is a floating petri dish of "what's gonna make me puke or sheet meself next darlin'?"...Plus the younger affluent academics would be elsewhere with the rest of the Lord Snooty clever clogs buying cottages in North Norfolk to uber 'em or use them as weekend and holiday retreats or flittin' orft to Dubai....or sitting atop an exclusive trendy expensive terrace bar with a local Deb's delight in tow....whilst I'm swiggin' in Spoons sittin' with....well, with whatever's available and has a nice personality....or when my 6 pint beer goggles are activated..... Right spleen vented, gotta go....crack on and continue to astound us with your cleverness....you supposed affluent an' smuggy smarty pants pink um pretendy porsche drivin' patronising pretentious posters....Really gotta go, as I live in a 13th floor flat and with some scissors, I've now got to go and trim my window box of watercress....(that's not a euphemism by the way).... Anyway.....what was this topic about again?....

More preventative focus is required, IMO. Totally agree with a tax hike on junk food/adverts. I'd keep turning the screw on sugar, alcohol and tobacco too. More than anything, I'd like to see more focus on sport again in schools and NOT selling off playing fields!

Post of the week

What a world. When we ended up in division 3 (old money) it was the ultimate embarrassment on here, worse than applying for re-election. They’ve been down there for how long? They’ve thrown the bank, the kitchen sink, the Drum and Monkey and the tree growing out of the stand at it this year and still aren’t up. Worried about them? Am I ****. Not even guaranteed to play them. Bunch of cry babies. They’ve got fans in sixth form/uni that have NEVER seen them beat us. Get a grip.

That should have been the question Webber asked before he sacked Farke.

Yes. As Director of Football

Binner

Close enough. Though of course we are in any case sportingly inferior to Middlesbrough by some distance - certainly to the neutral. To be quite as weak as we are now - sportingly, mentally, tactically - is quite an ‘achievement’ from the peak of promotion in ‘21 with Buendia-Skipp, plus £60m laid out. Forget about Boro, Brentford, Brighton or Blackburn comparisons, positive or negative outlooks, play-off chances or no play off chances, style of play to no style of play, winning mentality to a weaker fragile one, to have as ineffectual a set of players as we have now - from such a high point and so much money gained, with many of our contextually major investments far distant from use or capital return- is horrible mis-management. The right question is not ‘why aren’t we someone else?’ .. …The right questions to ask, that every employee of Norwich City should - and must - be asking themselves, is ‘why aren’t we what we were in ‘21?…how have we been so active, received so much, spent so much, traded so much, to get so much worse in every sense than what we ourselves had already built? Comparing ourselves to ourselves is not only valid, it is necessary, essential and demands an empirical self-reflective answer in order for the club to progress from here. Parma

I have always assumed that there is a formal side agreement, or at least an informal one that provided for three possible outcomes: 1) MA takes control and the format of that; 2) S&J call the whole thing off; and 3) MA calls the whole thing off. For 2 & 3 MA gets his cash back, for 1 S&J take their equity gain & protect their reputation. Deferred consideration is only a mechanism in support of all three options. Further to that there is no market value to the clubs shares, because there is not market in which they are traded. Equally there is no market in football clubs, so no no market value. Where the complication is the the large number of minority shareholders & their legal protections including the takeover code. MA won't cross the Rubicon until there is a mechanism in place to manage this fact, and ultimately the price and structure of the transaction. So we have to wait.......

Not sure Idah could even put the ball in the wrong net at the momment

Sounds like you love drugs more. 😵😵‍💫

Blimey. Are they that good?!

After Friday night, I have decided to just go with it. Our club surprises us when we lest expect it. We could quite easily win the next four and see ourselves in the play offs. This club is like drug. You feel sometimes down and you'll never come back, then it turns and you're tripping. Love City.

He's just started up his own channel. Possibly not the most auspicious time to do so 🙂 Whatever you might think of the content, his commitment & genuine passion for the club are indisputable. It takes a lot of courage to start something like this under these circumstances. Let's hope the rest of the squad are as embarrassed & determined to make amends as he is.

Top man, comes through as such a genuine guy who loves the club.

Indeed @MrBunce… …and once deferred consideration type deals are engaged - with conditional, what if and trigger point clauses - then lawyers must inevitably be employed and collaborative intentions can easily give way to partisan professionalism. Keeping a lid on the process is a job and a skill all of its own. Parma

The issue for me is is that the Boomers (us) have generally eaten our seed corn. We have voted in parties and policies that suit us but the younger generations are now burdened with student debt, unaffordable house prices or rent and to cap it all a regressive isolationist Brexit damaging the economy too. May our children forgive us. I can't.

MrBunce, I agree about the club's reaction to the ITV Digital farce but I would argue this is an even more critical juncture. This in effect is the owners bowing to the financial realities not just of the Premier League but the Championship as well. An acceptance (I know some would argue belated) that their morally virtuous self-funded model could no longer work. This takeover, if that is what it is, must indeed be got right, although in the "too much and never enough" financial world of the EPL no deal Norwich City could pull off would ever allow it to compete on equal terms with the mega-funded elite.

Your more likely to see an immigrant in the consulting room or caring for people on a ward than the waiting room. I wasn't born in the UK as my father was in the RAF and posted abroad at the time. Your 'solution' is stupid.

You could have linked to it! https://www.youtube.com/@TheCubanBaller/videos

Walk in the Park for us. Its like saying Burnley who are rampaging through the Champ could suddenly turn up and beat say Aston Villa or a team just outside the top 6 in the prem. ALWAYS $hit on the old blue and white…

Pukki is leaving and hqsnt scored in 12. Sargent at least has scored, puts himself about and is a target man. Absolutely no point playing Hayden so id go Gunn Aarons Omi Byram Mcallum Sorenson Sara Tzolis Gibbs Onel Sargent Pukki, Rowe, Idah, Hayden, Marquinhos on bench

I could literally count on one hand how many of the current squad I would keep. Probably an unpopular opinion, but Aaron’s is one I’m really not bothered about going and think a steady right back at this level is a better option

as long as its only one of Sargent or Pukki, the extra midfielder in midfield makes us much harder to break down

Because other people who were obviously contributing have left and the club is being entirely run by two chancers, both promoted way above their station by our gullible owners. And they are raking in millions in the process.

The first change was the club trying to fix the obvious limitation of Farkeball after five years of perseverance. The second was simply firefighting trying to appease a fan base revolting against the club's approach to dealing with the limit imposed by Farkeball.

Ditching mediocrity is all very well, but people who want this total clear-out of players seem to assume this is a simple process, like buying a new pair of shoes when the old ones wear out. What if we just replace the existing mediocrity with a different mediocrity? Lots of money spent for no gain. We're in the Championship and supporters are talking as if we can swoop and pick up a group of players who are almost good enough for the PL. Personally I agree with the OP that there is the makings of a good side at CR, at least for the Championship. Sara in particular has the potential to be a fantastic player at this level. Build the team around him and get some solid, unspectacular midfielders to support him. Again, easier said than done, especially since Webber seems to have little ability to imagine how players might work together as a unit. And will probably flog Sara and spaff the money up the wall on a couple of useless loans.

He's had enough shots. None of them went in. He should be loaned out, probably to L1 (I can't see a championship team being interested)

Absolutely true and I remember those games and that period as well. I think it just goes to show that the type of football Norwich fans like most of all is winning football, just like fans of any other club. You can talk all you want about playing styles and philosophies but ultimately it's results on the pitch that matter. There wasn't much difference in how we played in Farke's first season and his next two Championship seasons but in those next two we had two players too good for the Championship who could create and score chances at will. If we played long ball or counter attacking football but won games fans would be happy and if we played a pure possession based passing game that was great to watch but if we didn't get results the fans would be angry. I suspect that with our current squad if we had Farke in charge things would be going much like they did in his first season and even though we would have a clear philosophy and a manager that fans can connect with most people wouldn't be happy as we wouldn't be winning enough games or scoring enough goals. People often over estimate how important the manager is and underestimate the role the players play. A bad manager will have an effect of course, but if you have a good team that has good chemistry even an average manager will get results. We all thought Lambert was the next big thing, but it's now clear that it was more about Ruddy/Martin/Hoolahan/Holt. Alex Neil the same but he had a great team of experienced players, and Farke again wouldn't have had much success without Buendia and Pukki. I honestly don't think Farke would make much of a difference right now and I think it's unfair to compare Wagner and Smith to be fair to a Farke team that had Buendia and an in his prime Pukki. We have a very average team right now with no 'weapons' and a lot of mental scars from previous relegations. It reminds me of when people were clamoring to have Lambert back in 2016 and in Farke's first season, what would he have done with that team and without the star players from his time here? Not a lot I'd imagine.

I think we made an Icarussian mistake Neymar. I think Farke was a special man and a special fit here. Perhaps he wouldn’t come back. Perhaps he feels the glass cracked. Mine is an unapologetically emotional response to someone else’s question. It isn’t analytical, tactical or strategic. I think we’d be lucky if he forgave us. I suspect it won’t happen. I don’t think it will happen. We failed our Dario Gradi test. I imagine he knows it and we know it. Parma

It’s a tough call and I’m a self confessed Farke fan boy. I’d like to see him as director of football rather than back as manager. But I tell you one thing, I’m pretty sure he’d have this team in the play offs this season. The squad may not be great but when you look at current top 6 I’ve no doubts Farke would’ve been able to inspire the players to at least be good enough for that.

LYB in defence of lover deano shock

Going to be a miserable round of golf for Deano and Shakey tomorrow

5.0 us

There is absolutely no doubt that Nutty loves Norwich City............