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BigFish

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BigFish last won the day on December 10 2018

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  1. BigFish

    OT - EU straw poll...

    Big problem for Labour I agree @Van wink. I was just clarifying that the majority of that 49% are going to Remain Parties, not like some on here think Farage. Apologies for phrasing it a bit sharpely.
  2. BigFish

    OT - EU straw poll...

    Labour does have a massive problem, but it is not Farage's Brexit Party, it is the loss of Remain voters.
  3. BigFish

    OT - EU straw poll...

    In attempting to make the Euros a referendum it seems the Brexiteers have shot themselves in the foot. All but slightly, Remain is ahead
  4. BigFish

    OT - EU straw poll...

    Is this not the exact same position he was in after the 2014 with UKIP, to which he responded by rarely turning up
  5. BigFish

    OT - EU straw poll...

    Quoted from @Rock the Boat on the Brexit Party Thread as I think it warrants further discussion A lot of the success of the Brexit Party will come about because it really is made up of ordinary people from all walks of life (or chancers as you call them). They won't be slick careerist politicians and they will come with warts and all because that's just how normal people are, and that is the great appeal in the North to former Labour voters, and why I think Labour could get really hammered if there is a general election shortly after the EU vote. The two-party system has been around for a long time because the two main parties don't really have much in the way of competition up until now. The Chuk party now provides a Blairite option separate from the broad-left of the Labour Party, which allows soft-left Tories to attach themselves. They will, and are, failing as a party because they are no different to a social democratic party and they really belong in the LibDems. Maybe they will eventually end up there. The Brexit party, meanwhile, offer a real Brexit choice (and not the BRINO deal that May has been trying to force through). They will hoover up votes in the north of England because they represent real people. The Tories were always perceived as toffs and could never make headway, while Labour has lost its working-class roots and has become a metropolitan-based party. Just how far this has gone was outlined in a study by University College, London who described just how quickly working-class politicians have disappeared from the Labour Party. I quote a relevant section from the study: The report finds that career MPs, categorised as politicians that come from a background in politics or a closely related profession, are more likely to adopt policies for strategic political reasons to win over swing voters and win elections. In contrast, working-class MPs, categorised as politicians that have a background in manual and unskilled labour, are more likely to support policies that benefit working class communities Study author Dr Tom O'Grady, Lecturer in Quantitative Political Science, (UCL Political Science), said: "Political parties across the developed world, particularly European Social Democratic parties, once consisted of politicians drawn from a broad range of classes and occupations, including manual trades. Today, many political parties are dominated by middle-class professional politicians with little experience outside of politics itself. Working-class people find it increasingly difficult to enter politics. "Before Tony Blair came to power there was only a modest difference in working-class and careerists positions on welfare reform. But our research finds that during his premiership - the influence of working-class MPs dropped while there was a rise in the influence of careerist politicians. "The former had a stronger ideological attachment to welfare provision because it benefits working-class voters, whereas the latter's greater concerns for electoral success and career advancement meant they were more likely to support welfare reforms. The findings suggest that the large shift from working-class MPs to career politicians in the British Labour Party considerably weakened the representation of working-class voters' interests. Put bluntly, careerist MPs are much more likely to blow with the political winds." When the Labour Party first achieved electoral success in the 1920s, more than 70% of its MPs were drawn from working-class backgrounds. This has declined drastically from the mid- 80s and today just 8% of Labour MPs are working-class. Working-class have been replaced one for one with careerists, a rare phenomenon up until the 80s when career MPs made up just a 10th of the party. Careerists are now the largest occupational group, outnumbering MPs from public and voluntary sector, private and financial sectors and professional backgrounds. In other words, the Brexit Party now offers a choice to traditional Labour voters in the north and provides direct competition to the Labour Party. You only have to look north of the English border to see what happened when the SNP (a single-issue party much like the Brexit Party) also promoted strong socialist policies and as a result wiped out the Labour Party in Scotland (though admittedly in the last election there was movement away from SNP as services began to collapse). But it sows there is a precedence that voters are prepared to change allegiances when they see that alternatives do exist. The Brexit Party needs a quick GE as the momentum will be with them after the EU vote. If there is an election I predict they'll gain 100 seats, taking many former Labour seats with them. Now this argument also plays into @Van wink's thinking that The Brexit Party will clean up on disaffected Labour Votes even after I pointed out this current polling indicates that this swing is less the 5% of the electorate, as opposed to a massive tsunami. The argument appears to centre on 3 main points: 1) That professional politicians (mainly Labour) no longer represent or are representative of the voters that elect them, 2) That the Brexit Party is made up of normal people, therefore 3) The Brexit Party will wipe out Labour (particularly in the North) On 1) there is an element of truth, but ignores the fact that neither the system that created working class politicians or the working class remains what it was when the people who make this argument formed their opinions. Many politicians came through the Unions or Municipal Socialism. This were largely constrained and opportunities reduced in the Eighties by Thatcher. At the same time the bastions of organised Labour in the Mining, Steel, Ship building & much of manufacturing were destroyed by Conservattive neo-liberal dogma. It meant that for decades brightest and the best in the North had to "get on their" bike and head to where the opportunity was, predominately London, the South East and University towns. It is therefore not surprising that the Left continues to flourish in these areas and that politicians from these areas are more representative of their electorates. On 2) it is difficult to see how a company led by a career politician of 20 Years funded by a billionaire is in any way more representative of the electorate. That is before we trawl through the candidates in favour of legalising child pornography, supporting the IRA, abolishing the NHS etc etc. Yes, it does represent segment of older, nostalgic, white, Englishness but the modern British Electorate - I don't think so. On 3) the Brexit Party has done a good job of sweeping up Conservative, UKIP and non-voters to the degree of support in the thirty something percents but that is not Labour's problem. Labour's problem is not the 4.9% of supporters turning Brexit Party, it is the far larger number going the other way to support Leave supporting parties. It is this large swathe of the electorate that will never support Farage. Yes he may get the most votes, yes he may get the most seats but it won't be a majority and it won't give him power.
  6. BigFish

    OT - EU straw poll...

    Here you go @Van wink , 47% (Labour Leavers supporting Brexit Party, YouGov poll 12 to 16 May 2019) of 35% (Labour Leave voters, YouGov after the referendum) of 30% (Labour voters, based on 2015 election, Wikipedia) gives a rough hit to Labour in the North of England. E.G. 4.9% swing from Labour to The Brexit Party in terms of total vote share from 2015. Not nice, but not the tsunami Guido would have @Jools believe. Made up of Labour Leave voters willing to support Farage.
  7. BigFish

    OT - EU straw poll...

    No @Van wink I included them in the second cohort. Labour is only taking a small hit in the North where less than half of Labour voters who voted Leave are considering defecting - even in the North the majority of Labour voters voted Remain. Brexit Party is predominately hoovering up the votes from UKIP & the Conservatives - even in the North. Meanwhile Labour is losing voters to Remain Parties. It is a fallacy to say Brexit was won in the Labour heartlands, rather than the Tory Shires.
  8. BigFish

    The Brexit Party

    You can never underestimate how many selfish pensioners there are in the UK......
  9. Certainly this was true but there are alarming indications that this has gone into reverse in the poorer parts of the UK and US. For me this in part of the unwinding of the post war social democratic consensus since the eighties. The neo-liberals/monetarist/Thatcherites/whatever you want to call them took the benefits of the consensus, the UK's one off North Sea Oil bounty, the one off sales of assets and a private debt bubble to reform the economy. Unfortunately the financial crash demonstrated the limitations of this approach. Growth is not now driven from the productive economy because there has been massive underinvestment but rather through asset bubbles, borrowing and rent. Effectively a giant Ponzi scheme. The low wage, low investment, low productivity, low tax economy has successfully created this jobs miracle but is unsustainable.
  10. BigFish

    The Brexit Party

    Maybe @Rock the Boat, although not really aimed at someone who can come back with such an appropriate reply. It was more about what a disreputable bunch of chancers The Brexit Party are. They do little to advance the cause of Brexit with their vapid attention seeking. There may be a pragmatic route to Brexit but it will never involve Farage (and for that matter as you mention it, it will never include the stupidity of WTO rules)
  11. BigFish

    OT - EU straw poll...

    Like @Creative Midfielder I agree there is a hard core but much lower than 35%. This core is also concentrated in the Tory shires, amongst the older, less educated and often poorer and excluded voters. This tends to be in England & Wales, outside London, University towns and the South East. Scotland and NI seem immune. Therefore to be really significant the UK either needs to change the electoral method or support goes well above 40%. And that shows no sign of happening.
  12. BigFish

    The Brexit Party

    Seems like some of the Brexit Party candidates are on record with some interesting views. Legalising pornography involving children, legalising Internet Pornography in general, supporting the IRA, in favour of revolutionary communism. Perhaps some ideas for Fraudage when he does put a manifesto together (along with abolishing the NHS)
  13. Will just need to keep finding new players then...........something that has kept Southampton afloat in the Prem
  14. BigFish

    new party, same stale minds and no policies

    Possibly @Rock the Boat, and agree that the Brexit Party's vote share of slightly under a third of the electorate means it will probably "win" the Euros, whatever "win" means in the context of a pan EU election. But the only polling I can find on parties disappearing doesn't support this. These sort of polls are always flakey though.
  15. BigFish

    new party, same stale minds and no policies

    @Jools is trying to big up the Brexit Party insurgancy amongst the over 55s for the Euros despite support largely being cannibalised from UKIP & the Tories and the expectation in the electorate that the BP will disappear afterwards. Same old bunkem that he tried on the EU thread before being thoroughly debunked @Herman
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