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Barbe bleu

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Barbe bleu last won the day on October 26 2020

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  1. The boosters have been at around 200k a day for two weeks now
  2. I've no idea how the vaccine rollout is branded. I said NHS England as that's where I got the 200,000 a day figure from. I didnt really mean to make a point of it at all. One thing I was making a point of is flu. In an average season it can kill 300 a day. Numbers are low at the moment but it can explode and resistance is likely to be low this year due to lockdown. We really cannot let this slip. There is no sense in getting worked up about 200 covid deaths a day if we ignore the 300 flu deaths over the same 24 hours.
  3. Its a play on the suffrage movement. There is a school of thought that the biggest reason that women got the vote wasn't the suffragists or the suffragettes but because women proved with their munition work etc that they could play a worthwhile role in society and that the vote was the reward for not protesting and instead getting on with vital work.
  4. No idea where they can be done but as NHS England is delivering 200,000 a day it doesn't seem to have been a big issue so far. You could argue that 500,000 a day is better but boosters are not as urgent as the initial jab and we might find that the real priority is the flu jab...
  5. I would definitely prioritise boosters over jabs for the healthy under 18s.
  6. It's one of those 'should have quite while you were ahead' boards that one. He was doing OK until he got to CND, Arab spring, Hong Kong and HS2. At which point he may as well have written, 'sometimes annoying protests achieve nothing worthwhile' One annoying protest I hope achieves nothing is the one where people go into an NHS Trust building and subject staff to a lecture on nuremburg code and 'serve' papers on them. I'm sure these guys have honestly held intentions , but they still need to go away I've always imagined the UK, domestic, abolition of slavery movement to have been a rather genteel affair, with lots of Quakers speaking in soft voices over a bowl of porridge, whilst wearing some nice badges made by that kindly Mr Wedgwood. I don't think I want to be told this is wrong
  7. Its one of those big questions isn't it, Did militant suffragettes help or hinder the suffragist campaign? Probably along with, who did more to acheive the aim: pankhurst or fawcett, or kaiser bill? People will arrogantly claim to have all the answers but the truth is no one really knows. Even MPs who voted through the legislation could not have known for sure from where their motivation came. There are no absolute truths in our understanding of historical events, only ideas, opinions and hypotheses.
  8. It did take four years (1914-1918) of the suffragettes not protesting for them to achieve their aim. Maybe these protestors could do the same, promise to not protest and to demonstrate that climate activists can fulfill a worthwhile role in society in return for an Act of Parliament down the line....
  9. As I recall there were ten groups that were brigaded into 3 categories. The first one being over 75s , health and social care workers and clinically vulnerable. Which was around 10 Mill if I recall correctly. I might be a little off but the basic premise still stands. Yes, 50-60/70 odd won't be boosted by end of November but as they will still/should still have good antibody levels in blood one shouldn't be needed or appropriate
  10. Vaccine stats for England can be found at https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/?dm_t=0,0,0,0,0 I guess you can add 10% and have a reasonable UK figure It looks like 4 million boosters/3rd doses have already been done. So about 6 million more to complete the category 1 population. At a rate of 1.5 million a week roll out should be complete before the end of November. The body's response should be quicker than for primary jabs so people should have good antibody levels for the flu season in December- march. It's uptake in young age groups that needs work but realistically it's going to take a lot of natural infection before this becomes fully set in an endemic cycle as R0 of delta is so massive.
  11. You're going to run out of immune cells at this rate! There must be a limit to the number injections a person can take in one short period, surely.... Your lymph nodes must already think you live in a medieval dustbin and regularly lick the sides
  12. Putting that all together are you advocating never ending restrictions or a complete absence of restrictions as there is no point in them as this will remain epidemic forever regardless of what we do? Either of those seem the logical end points of your arguments I understand your interpretation of that article but I am not sure it was the intended one. Its an article really about vaccination as a route to elimination and discusses the prospects for herd immunity by this method alone. I have never thought that vaccines alone would bring this to a halt and I have long accepted that endemic disease is the end state ( or at least have since 18 may 2020 when @Van wink shared the story about the vaccine not giving sterilising immunity in monkeys). I hope I am wrong a zero covid becomes a thing, its possible even if unlikely What i am sure of is that we will get herd immunity to this disease, it cannot remain epidemic (ie growing exponentially) forever. Like the article says that immunity won't be just because of vaccines, some of it will need to be done the hard way. Maybe I should state what the terms 'herd immunity' and 'endemic' mean to me as that might situate my response a bit better. In reality being at the herd immunity threshold means no more and no less than, on average, R=1 when mixing is free. A disease that is endemic is one , as you put it, in a steady state, which is of course also R=1. If we combine these two then we can say with certainty that if we are in an endemic state then herd immunity is acheived and vice versa. I have said 'on average' because endemic diseases will flare up and die down from time to time. That's what will probably happen with this as it does with all. I guess what I think is beneficial is that these.flare ups happen when the pressure is not on the health service and, crucially, when immunity in individuals is high, like soon after a vaccine or three.... I am therefore not adverse to targeted measures but they must be carefully applied with a very specific goal. A circuit breaker just because the August figures are looking dodgy just wouldn't cut it. As a concluding thought the HIT for Delta is crazy high. I've seen estimates of an R0 of 7 or 8 so HIT would be between 86 and 88% ([1- 1/R0]*100%) so i wouldn't necessarily expect is to be at that level already, the key thing is will we be there because the flu patients really start checking in...
  13. OK, so we lockdown or take measures that increase social distancing; Infections will fall in line with the severity of the measures. But do we keep these measures in place until the end of time? Until we achieve Herd immunity all these measures can do is delay the point at which people get the disease. Herd immunity appears to have become a dirty phrase but it is the end point that all epidemics reach. They set in, they multiply and then, when the immunity threshold is met, they become endemic. If we are lucky R might fall below 1 for long enough in enough places that this thing goes goes the way of SARS 1 but after 18 months of trying that's that's big ask and certainly unachievable without Herd immunity. If we were locking down etc because the reformulated vaccine was being produced and we wanted to buy a bit of time or we wanted to deflect hospitalisations away from the seasonal peak then there might be a point but there doesn't appear to be much evidence of that just yet. Is what you really mean 'we need measures now because i fear a seasonal effect that will push numbers up at just the time to coincide with seasonal pressure on the NHS. I would then welcome relaxation when the flu season is done'?
  14. I am inclined to agree. I have thought for a fair while now that the assumption that high infection rate =bad might be a thing of the past. Neither past exposure or vaccination appears to give 100% (sterilising) protection from infection and won't stop you getting exposed to the pathogen. What we do know is that that best protection and nearest we get to the gold standard comes from double vaccination and exposure So when you are exposed, as you probably will be given the R0 of delta is astronomical, would you rather that was when you still had antibodies in circulation in your blood or when only your baseline memory still existed? Would you rather be exposed go a virus against which the vaccine still has very good efficacy or an indeterminate variant? And that's before the NHS seasons come into play
  15. If herd immunity won't stop the spread then nothing will. The only other possible way of stopping spread for good would be for covid to become extinct in every single part of the world at the same time. That's not happening. If you don't believe that herd, sterilising, immunity will ever be achieved and you are not so barking mad as to believe in spontaneous extinction them exactly what would the measures you think are appropriate be for? In the past this could be explained as buying us time for vaccine delivery and medical research but the gains in these areas now will be limited so all restrictions can really do now is to 'encourage' hospital cases to come forward in the summer rather than winter. By this token June/July would have been the 'ideal' time to reopen surely?
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