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Lakey: No one will make a more stupid comment regarding odds and probability. Bill: Hold my beer.

Title says it all - not complaining at that!

3732 days since they beat us !

Like this apparently

I don't give a monkeys about the moneybags clubs, however they're funded. Very happy with and proud of our club (and our owners), for doing it our way, however this season ends up.

For a player reportedly disruptive at his last club his comments about his love of the city and his relationship with his team mates speaks volumes. Last season he was a comprehensive team player and ironically that makes him such an outstanding individual who makes the team tick. That is why he was targeted by foul play. He just has to carry on doing what he does and everything else will fall into place for him but for now he found a home in Norwich and he knows it. It is so rare to see a player so gifted graft like he does and tackle like he does. I love it when he and Aarons in tandem mug the opposition player in possession. He is different to Maddison, infact I don't know who to compare him to. I hope he takes the EPL by storm.

One-trick show pony. Not fit to lace Bryan Conlon's boots.

A few good performances next season, which barring injury will happen, and surely Scaloni will be looking at him for the senior squad. Norwich’s first £80mil player 👍 (but I’d rather keep him!)

GOOD NEWS ALERT! Buendia now signed up on a new, 5 year contract.

Liked Reed a lot but I have a feeling the DM we sign will need to be more impressive than him.

F*ck off.

Lakey 100% believes he has a 50/50 chance of winning the lottery, Because he can either win or lose.

That makes no sense. Have you not heard of a thing called variables? To genuinely believe that you would need to believe that experience or players, talent of players, ability of the coaching team, aptitude of the manager/coach, transfer and wage budgets etc, etc have absolutely no bearing on the sport of football.

Aren't Errea Italian? Maybe there are fewer of the larger proportioned in Italy than the UK. What's with all the centimeters? Inches man, inches.

And therein lies the issue NN. Here's a sample from Cotton Traders, a place I often get T-shirts and sweaters from: 5XL = 152-157cm Chest A full TWENTY centimetres more than the 5XL in the Errea shirt, and 10cm more than the 8XL maximum available in the Errea shirt. Similarly if I look on Jacamo, another place I've ordered from on occasion: 5XL = 163-168cm Chest, which is even larger than the Cotton Traders sizing (which is understandable somewhat as they market to bigger people), and again, a good 20cm larger in just a 5XL than in the biggest size 8XL Errea shirt. A few cm's here and there is fine, but that much variance is beyond ridiculous and makes a mockery of the Errea sizing, because they are simply NOT correctly sized, and it's misrepresentative of the shirt size by claiming that 142cm's is 8XL, because I've never seen even a 4XL that small, never mind 8XL (which would swamp even me from most places I could order).

The OP did start off by asking what the probability was, so that's what most people gave him, though he did then ruin it by asking what the chances were, so yeah Emi is magic and the OP should stop trying to do his son's homework...

Wolfie was still better.

Here you go Indy, I googled to find the difference between probability and likelihood. Apologies for the answer. Discrete Random Variables Suppose that you have a stochastic process that takes discrete values (e.g., outcomes of tossing a coin 10 times, number of customers who arrive at a store in 10 minutes etc). In such cases, we can calculate the probability of observing a particular set of outcomes by making suitable assumptions about the underlying stochastic process (e.g., probability of coin landing heads is pp and that coin tosses are independent). Denote the observed outcomes by OO and the set of parameters that describe the stochastic process as θθ. Thus, when we speak of probability we want to calculate P(O|θ)P(O|θ). In other words, given specific values for θθ, P(O|θ)P(O|θ) is the probability that we would observe the outcomes represented by OO. However, when we model a real life stochastic process, we often do not know θθ. We simply observe OO and the goal then is to arrive at an estimate for θθ that would be a plausible choice given the observed outcomes OO. We know that given a value of θθ the probability of observing OO is P(O|θ)P(O|θ). Thus, a 'natural' estimation process is to choose that value of θθ that would maximize the probability that we would actually observe OO. In other words, we find the parameter values θθ that maximize the following function: L(θ|O)=P(O|θ)L(θ|O)=P(O|θ) L(θ|O)L(θ|O) is called the likelihood function. Notice that by definition the likelihood function is conditioned on the observed OO and that it is a function of the unknown parameters θθ. Continuous Random Variables In the continuous case the situation is similar with one important difference. We can no longer talk about the probability that we observed OO given θθ because in the continuous case P(O|θ)=0P(O|θ)=0. Without getting into technicalities, the basic idea is as follows: Denote the probability density function (pdf) associated with the outcomes OO as: f(O|θ)f(O|θ). Thus, in the continuous case we estimate θθ given observed outcomes OO by maximizing the following function: L(θ|O)=f(O|θ)L(θ|O)=f(O|θ) In this situation, we cannot technically assert that we are finding the parameter value that maximizes the probability that we observe OO as we maximize the PDF associated with the observed outcomes OO.

I think that probability and likelihood are two different measures, are they not? In probability you know the set of parameters (something is either heads or tails) and the possible outcomes whereas in likelihood you know (observe) the possible outcomes but don't know the process that produces those outcomes

Exactly why I picked him. Very few posters around in a position to contradict me...

Great news by the way about Buendia and not too many letters to make it expensive on the back of my new shirt.

The existence of futures surely only applies dependent on your frame of reference, and I fear you are mixing yours here. The future as not happened yet from within our frame of reference and as such those multiverses are mirrors of our own or yet to be. If you are saying they already exist then they then they are no longer futures and are merely fact from the frame of reference where future and past have no meaning...

Fantastic news! Some outrageous play from him last season, was a pleasure to watch.

Best news - ever. 😀

Since all possible futures already exist somewhere in the Multiverse, It just depends upon which Universe we happen to be in.

err, that's because their odds reflect what money has been bet not what they think will happen the clue is in the name........... bookmaker not predictors

I have a feeling that Mario is understandably probably trying to secure a longer deal than a 1 year extension, and to be honest, I’d be wondering why we’d be adverse to that IF that were the case. Hopefully it will all get sorted soon, as he’s Premier League quality for sure. Interesting on the Gilmour thing. Other than the official club announcement, it couldn’t really sound anymore concrete than that. As for Reed, it’s a no for me. Good little player, and I appreciated him whilst he was here. But with the greatest respect, I think we can do much better than that at this level, as I’m sure we’ll all see soon.

2000-1 seems about right to me and possibly worth a £1 each way bet. If Lakey wants to see the odds lower then a series of £1,000 bets should do it. Of more interest to me is the 25-1 that Sky is offering on us at Liverpool. Once again it's probably correct mathemically but it's very generous for a Premier league game.

These are my thoughts entirely, Bethnal. They have massive work to do, but unlike Leeds, I’m quite happy to see Villa back in the big time. Villa and their supporters were extremely gracious to us on the last day of the season, as has been well documented, and anything to do with Lambert is long since forgotten about. I do get the feeling that, as it stands, this season will be far more of a struggle for them than TalkSport presenters realise. It’s one hell of an overhaul they have to undertake, and Dean Smith has got his work cut out to build a cohesive and effective unit in just a few weeks. I don’t envy him. So, with the greatest of respect to them, I have a feeling that they will occupy one of the bottom 2 places with Sheff Utd (sorry, but I certainly don’t give Sheff Utd a chance this season - look at their front 2 for starters, they are definitely not PL quality). And that gives me all the more confidence that we’ll stay up, but then I’ve already stated that we are quite capable of a mid table finish, and that’s what I fully expect to happen. I actually think that if somehow we were to shock Liverpool, that result alone could be the catalyst for a fantastic season that not many would have the balls to predict.

Good to get another one in for the future in Gilmour. It is a little odd to have no news on Mario, but I guess whatever, he’s with us next season anyway.

I believe you are talking about Lauren Hemp, she is from North Walsham. The pathway in Norfolk isn't great. The FA regionalised their Advanced Coaching centres, and believe the closest one to us is Suffolk. CSF run RDP sessions for girls football and we have a lot of clubs growing locally with girls teams and Wildcats centres. There's a bit more info on the pathway here... NCFC Ladies, are linked - but I believe more through CSF than the club.

Reed is likely to go to Forest I think. He’s a decent player, but not going to improve Norwich’s starting XI. One month today until the window closes, I suspect we won’t see anything major before the team head out to Germany. Webber talked about how sometimes clubs have to wait until the end of the window before some deals can be done - so that could be where Norwich are at right now.

The equal pay thing is only in America and for the money the USA National Team give their women and men’s teams. The USA women’s team is the best in the world, win tournaments etc. The USA Women’s team has bigger TV audiences, the players have higher profiles than most on the male players and draw in bigger sponsorship deals - yet the men’s team receive larger payments from the USA National Association. That is the basis for the case There isn’t an argument that an amateur women’s team like Norwich LFC should have equal pay to the men’s team.

Inclusivity at its finest.

Just because something improbable happened, it does not mean it was wrong to class it as improbable in the first place. The probability was still - and always will be - correct; it's a way of quantifying and ordering outcomes based upon their likelihood. It does not forbid an unlikely outcome from occurring.

It is a game in its own right. Comparisons are wasted in reality. If people find some enjoyment from watching women's football then good for them. From what I saw of the WC, it is not something I would contribute financially to. As said before, its like Benny Hill being the lead in the Deer Hunter.

You are probably right, but in football terms, probability is only relative.....

Based on most of what I read on here, I'm not too sure there are any gentlemen in Norwich😉😂

Many listening ? Excellent interviewer in Michael Bailey, barely notice him but subtle and poignant.

....and there we have it. What I've been saying all along, if you think that VAR will save us from the ridiculous decisions that have plagued us in the past at this level, you're going to be disappointed.

I don't know about that; he was a bit of a wankspangle at lunchtime as well.

Agree with much of the above. There's never a good time to play the likes of Liverpool if we're serious about picking up points, but there are some times which are better than others and this is one of them. I’m happier with our pre-season than theirs which might prove distracting and wearing, also we play them a few days after their Community Shield Wembley date with Man C and a few days before their Super Cup match in Istanbul. Jurgen Klopp will not disrespect or underestimate us but would be failing in his duty if he did not rest some key performers. As the support act for the Anfield love-in curtain raiser can there be a better free hit for us? – no-one, including ourselves, expects us to win so we lose nothing in self esteem and confidence if we get worked over. And then at home we have the car crash which is Newcastle United. Jamal to get the only goal of the game (preferably at the Kop End) then Jordan to come off the bench to get the winner against the Geordies at the Barclay End would be a nice way to go top!!! If none of this happens so be it, it’s a long time since there’s been so much fun to look forward to. Love it. Btw love the new kit.

I don’t know why but I just have this strong belief that we’re going to end their unbeaten run at Anfield, a sort of ‘catch them cold’ type of thing. This is why I’m happy we’re playing them in the opening game, I feel it’ll be our best chance, but that said my Liverpool supporting friends (who are actually from Liverpool) say that they have the squad depth to cope should a few players need any additional rest at the start of the season. I do believe that whatever happens, we will create chances, and will come out of the Liverpool game with credit, and hopefully, respect. I can’t wait!

I have a sneaky feeling they are falling apart...........................................again

That's the thing. I don't think anyone can argue that VAR is getting 99.9% right, but at what cost?It's nice winning games,lifting trophies, but it's the moments us as fans remember, not the end result. That feeling of pukkis winner v Millwall Vrancic v sheff wed, Klose v ipswich, Jackson v derby, you can't get that feeling of a total explosion of emotion anywhere. VAR Dilutes that feeling because it adds doubt,it delays the decision. I would rather keep football as a human game with all the human errors and human emotion than a robotic game

I think Trybull is an excellent ball winner tbh

Newcastle aside, most Premier League clubs that might be in danger of relegation, are looking pretty well run. West Ham in particular have seemingly turned a corner and are starting to recruit sensibly. Fornas is an excellent player, so when you add him to Anderson and Yamalenko then it is hard to see them struggle. They also have a good manager to go with that. Even if Arnautovic does go, I think they could replace him wisely. Talk is of Maxi Gomes from Celta and he is top quality. Southampton have also seemingly turned a corner and are recruiting well. Everton have also sorted themselves out a little and should have far too much to be in any danger. The same goes for Wolves and Leicester - who all well run at the top and recruiting well. You could see Bournemouth or Palace dropping into trouble - Palace if they lose Zaha and Bournemouth if Wilson’s knee goes again. Also talk of Ake leaving Bournemouth and Howe’s recruitment has often been a bit ropey. Burnley could be one to watch. They looked better after coming out of Europe, but you do feel that Dyche’s methods and reliance on the domestic market will eventually catch up with them. Newcastle could be in real danger. Can see their manage search dragging on for a while and no Rondon or Pérez means they have a lot to replace up front. Villa are signing Championship players and have overpaid in a big way for Wesley. Their recruitment doesn’t look great so far, so will be interesting to see how the rest of the window goes. I think the league looks a really tough one this season. Clubs are starting to use the money they have much more wisely (apart from Villa). I’m starting to move toward optimism now, which always happens when pre-season starts but survival would be a massive achievement for Norwich.

Man Utd

To be honest I'm surprised any train stations have free car parks at this point.

We’re doing it the only way we can - we aren’t in a position to pee money away a la Fulham, nor would most supporters want us to - and IMO it’d be as likely to fail as to succeed. What others like Villa do doesn’t/shouldn’t really concern us, we’ll go about things in a relatively low-key/quiet way as per usual.