Bethnal Yellow and Green

I agree that Vrancic struggled a bit last night. Looks short of match sharpness (not a surprise) and had some very heavy touches losing the ball in key positions. When McClean came on he changed the game in Norwich’s favour by moving the ball quicker and most importantly being prepared to shoot. A Vrancic/Trybull midfield will always struggle for mobility and luckily Tottenham were happy to sit off them for a large chunk of the game. Vrancic just hasn’t been able to get up to speed this season and is well below the level he was performing at last season. Which isn’t a surprise as he hasn’t been able to get a run of games. I wouldn’t be surprised if he does get to have a say between now and the end of the season, but absolutely no need to drop Kenny McClean who has generally been pretty good.

In fairness he also said Norwich were the better team last night and deserved to win the game. Stephen Warnock and Dion Dublin both also mentioned that Krul was off his line.

He looked very good in the game against Seville, which I guess is when he first came to prominence with Norwich’s scouts. Norwich have a lack of left footed attacks so he could some balance. Bit of a gamble, but on a free and unlikely to be on high wages means it doesn’t particularly matter if it doesn’t come off.

Oxborough isn’t doing particularly well at Wealdstone apparently so I doubt he’ll be around beyond the summer. Ruddy will probably end up as 2nd choice for a Prem side, or even get the coveted 3rd choice homegrown keeper at a Champions’ League club. Can’t see Krul leaving, even if he goes to the Euros I can’t see how being Holland’s 3rd choice (and highly unlikely to play a minute of football) would change that.

I get info from StatsBomb - who are Norwich’s data provider this season as well. They have the best xg model in the business. Those Understat numbers include penalties so you need to deduct 2 goals and 1.5 xg to get non-penalty figures (which are the only ones that really matter). Understat’s model is very basic and only takes a couple of factors into account, which is true of any free to public models unfortunately. I’m not being critical of Pukki, his numbers are still good, especially considering Norwich’s season - they just don’t stand out as excellent. I When the whole package is factored together with his age, importance to Norwich and contract length; I just can’t see there being much interest in signing him. If he was in the last year of his deal and available for £8m - £10m then I’m sure he’d have many suitors.

The Poilcy Statement says; “Under the current immigration rules, there are a range of other immigration routes for specialist occupations, including innovators, ministers of religion, sportspeople and to support the arts. Our broad approach for January 2021 will be to open existing routes that already apply to non-EU citizens, to EU citizens.“ Which seemingly means that all non-British passport holders will be required to get a ‘work permit’ as they do currently. Getting a work permit in football means passing the requirements to get approval from the Governing body i.e. the FA. The FA will work with the Home Office and stakeholders to see whether the current system will be fit for purpose under the new immigration rules. The next two transfer windows will seemingly take place under the current rules, so no immediate change in the offing.

The Premier League have been trying to get rid of the work permit rules for years. They would welcome it going, as long as the quota on non-homegrown players was generous. The FA are happy they don’t have to treat EU players like English players. It could be that the ‘homegrown’ definition is changed to ‘British’ to strengthen the FA’s position. Again, that is fairly standard in other leagues with players regularly taking citizenship to help their clubs meet their quotas. What the home-office decide is hard to predict at the moment. But I can’t see any real desire for high earning individuals from being refused access to the UK. Even the current work permit rules have a loophole for highly paid players to get through.

Absolutely no way in this world that Dortmund would sign Pukki, just not going to happen. They have a ‘no over 26’ rule that means they won’t sign anyone older than 26, apart from in exceptional circumstances - like getting club legend Hummels back. Even if Farke went there, he’d have no say over transfers. Also worth noting that he is scoring below his expected goals level, so I don’t think too many will consider he’s having a very good season this time around - certain not enough to make them want to spend the £20m that Norwich would probably ask for. I can see the situation that King Canary brings up that should Norwich not be challenging for play-offs come January there might be a change in the situation. But even then I can see Prem teams looking for the next Jarrod Bowen rather than a 30 something striker.

Due to rule changes in China that route has been pretty much closed off. Clubs there now have to pay 100% on transfer fees on overseas players. So a £20m signing would cost a club £40m. I also can’t see Pukki being someone looking to semi-retire to a China/Middle Eastern league at this point of his career. If he scores plenty and Norwich get promoted again he’ll be back in the Prem before he’s 32.

That seems to be where things are heading. No more work permits but limitations to the amount of non-homegrown players. It would match the system most European Leagues adopt.

British Immigration rules will always have loopholes for people who earn the amount of money that footballers do. Brexit will probably mean that clubs can bring in more South American players than before - I understand that Norwich already have a scout dedicated to Brazil and Argentina in anticipation of these markets opening up.

It looks like Norwich are laying the ground to sell Cantwell. He has been sent on a bit of a press junket recently, doing interviews in the Telegraph, Daily Mail and BBC. Webber did the same with Maddison 6 months before selling him. Cantwell, like Maddison, has had some accusations of arrogance and being a bit of a play boy going on in the background, so getting him out there to say how humble he is etc is a good way to help raise his fee. Maddison’s agent and Leicester make sure he’s in the press fairy regularly saying how humble and dedicated he is (despite a lot of evidence contrary to this). It is all work to maximise value of an asset. It looks like Lewis will be getting games until the end of the season now with Byram’s injury. If he plays well then Norwich might feel he’s a good one to sell with McCallum already in the building. Godfrey would be very hard to replace. A quick centre back who is good at playing the ball out from the back is a rare commodity - arguably more so than a good Championship striker.

I just can’t see it. How many clubs would seriously want to sign him? I’m not knocking him as a player but don’t feel he is the hot property many Norwich fans believe him to be. Most clubs want to target players younger than 30 (I can barely think of one signing of an over 30 player made by a Prem team this season) and I don’t think any clubs will want to spend the £20m+ that Norwich will probably demand for Pukki, if they only intend to use him as a back up. I could see someone like Palace wanting to sign him, but they would never spend the fee Norwich could command for Pukki. As for the Finnish team; I think his place is pretty much guaranteed for the foreseeable future, whether he is a regular starter or not.

Highly doubt Pukki will leave this summer. While he has done well so far this season - I don’t think he’s done enough to make any clubs offer Norwich what they’ll demand for him. Especially considering he’ll be turning 30 next month.

This is spot on. If expected goals didn’t have some value, it wouldn’t exist. It wasn’t a statistic created for TV or newspapers but was developed by the betting industry (both bookmakers and professional gambling) to make themselves money. If it didn’t work to help them get and edge and improve their profits then it would had died out before anyone outside those industries had even heard of it.