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https://www.efl.com/news/2023/april/efl-awards-2023-shortlists-revealed/ Our very own @Diane has been nominated for EFL Supporter of the Season. Congratulations on the nomination Diane.

The three clubs directly above us have a nominal points maximum of 77 points each However, and a big however, each of the three have to play the other two, meaning only one club can reach 77, with another reaching 74 and the third 71 - or 72 each for the other two should they draw. That means either 10 or 11 points needed from our final 5 games, which I am sure will set off howls of anguish among some in here. To clarify. It does not mean we will. But it does mean we can..........without needing any favours from anyone else. We can even lose against Boro and still make the playoffs - should either Preston or Blackburn finish 6th (superior goal difference for us)

Wasn't that the game where Bamford and their keeper spent about 75 of the 90 minutes writhing in fake pain from non-existent fouls ? I was watching that with a bunch of Sheffield United fans and even they were shouting abuse at the screen.

If you take out the 3 promoted teams from last season's championship (one of which has all but secured Premiership survival this season, with the other two at least in with a fighting chance with 8 games to go) the league table looks remarkably similar this season with the exception of Huddersfield who have imploded for various (explicable) reasons. The 3 teams that were below the playoffs are now in it, with Huddersfield replaced by relegated Burnley at the top. So the main difference is that two of the three relegated teams - ourselves and Watford - haven't outperformed the existing playoff contending championship sides. Now, i would agree that based on the evidence of this season, much of the division is pretty ordinary, but to complain that the likes of Luton and Millwall aren't up there on merit denies the evidence of last season. There is certainly an argument that with parachute payments the relegated clubs should be in a stronger position than Championship sides, but as we are seeing, parachute payments are actually (as designed, shock horror !) required to deal with the financial consequences of relegation, not just to outspend the rest of the division (with the caveat that we appear to have the highest net spend in the division this season with limited sales and Sara and Nunez arriving) - both Watford and Burnley have operated at a significant transfer profit this season. Both us and Watford were pretty abject last season and a long way adrift of the rest and there is certainly an argument that our positions reflect more or less accurately both where we are both in terms of performances and squad strength. Which is an indictment in itself given that they sold roughly €60m worth of players and bought €20m whereas we sold roughly €4m and bought €14m - we have / had loaned out two of our larger Premiership expenses in Rashica and Tzolis, but at best selling them at the moment would more or less break even for the season. Last season's transfer dealings, the sacking of Farke and Dean Smith's directionless football have cost us so much, particularly when you look at how Burnley have rebuilt with a net profit of €35m and a totally new playing style. Two promotion seasons have spoilt us into assuming that the Championship is a cake walk. It isn't. I hope we get into the playoffs and send Teemu off with a playoff winners medal (whilst remaining entirely apprehensive about next season if we do.) For what it's worth, I think this season was always going to be a transitional one given the age / contract status of a number of recent stalwarts and the fact that we would need to start planning for a Pukki-less future (even without the contract situation, he can't go on forever) which will almost by necessity involve an adaptation of the playing style. Although given how ineffective it has been without Emi this may not necessarily be a bad thing. I do still think we'll squeak the playoffs and after that who knows. But either way, a time of change at CR - part of the joy of being a City fan. Buckle up and enjoy the ride. Whoever gets promoted will have deserved it over the course of a long and tough season, be it us or any of the other contenders. But to deride the likes of Luton or Millwall as not being worthy of a playoff spot and / or promotion is to adopt an elitist attitude somewhat similar to that directed at us in the Premiership but with considerably less justification.

It is too. A bargain for a "proper footballer" (Farke's words on Max) and one who has a great attitude, gives a solid performance after performance, time and again. He has shown real loyalty (all the headlines he must have read about him over the last couple of years). Like Teemu, if he leaves he has little to prove to us fans.

Players get dropped, managers get sacked. But incompetent referees can be as incompetent as they want and never get punished.

Pukki's goals and xG for Norwich 18/19: 29 goals - 24.2 xG 19/20: 11 goals - 11.2 xG 20/21: 26 goals - 26.4 xG 21/22: 11 goals - 11.4 xG 22/23: 10 goals - 11.5 xG Bar his first year he's pretty much always scored at the same rate as his xG. The big difference this year is that he is getting less chances than he has in his previous 2 championship seasons. Had Dean Smith been able to coach the team to consistently create chances for Pukki then he would probably score 20+ goals again. Even in the games under Smith where our xG was good but we lost it's important first to take into account game state, being behind will inflate the losing side's xG performance. The other consistent factor under Smith was that our xG would consist of lots of low quality chances, which can make a single game xG score look good while masking the fact that the team isn't creating many good chances. In 2018/19, 9 of Pukki's goals had an xG value of 0.4 or greater, this season he has had just 3 shots of that value.

It's not just about the summer the club will need to restructure for the following season without parachute payments. To think we'll just go up next season is just a little bit of wishful thinking, not saying it can't or won't happen but this club won't gamble on it this season coming should we not gain promotion, its not our style. More likely as we are seeing youth products are being used and Wagner singing their praises shows that we going back to basics using our Cat 1 system to promote youth products. Mumba, Rowe to come back next year, Gibbs, Sorensen & McCullum looking decent prospects with Omobamedele we have a core of very promising young team. If Idah & Sargent can get going up top its a very youthful set of players and if we can keep hold of Sara & Nunez decent prime players who should now make that adjustment to English football. There's a very decent core of good players sprinkled with older players with the best days behind them, I hope we start to use the younger players who make a claim by warranting their place in the team and not just bring back old experienced players. I don't expect massive changes, I do see Dowell going too, just too injury prone, Byram, Hayden is out of contract this summer but I really don't want him back taking up wages while injured all season again. Should be a fun summer, but one thing for sure picking up gems from EU on the cheap has long gone.

@newsthump.

I get the impression we'll always have Kenny ...

The question was whether Webber can do a good job. And he can, which is not to say he will. But there are some potential positives. Assuming we don’t get promoted, sorting out a transfer strategy for another season in the Championship is markedly easier than the kind of split-personality strategy he has had to use for the Premier League. Pukki’s decline and his decision to leave makes finding another striker a necessity, which it might not have appeared to be (even though because of his decline it would have been) if he was staying. Seemingly Rashica will definitely not be around, one way or another, which is another clarifying development. And Wagner will have by the end of the season have seen enough to make clear which players he wants to keep and which won’t make the grade. Another clarifying factor. As will be some certainty - at least in private - about the club’s financial position. Webber could still get it wrong, but he is not the useless idiot some here believe.

It's becoming increasingly clear that the main man behind our most positive recruitment on field success in recent times was Kieran Scott and not Stuart Webber. It went very downhill after he went to Middlesbrough and... oh, yeah, they've suddenly starting signing good players.

Coming up on the John Peel Show, The Left Wing Economic Establishment will be airing their brand new single "Socialists In Environmental Clothing".

Is anybody seriously thinking Webber can do a good job in the transfer market after his efforts in the last 4 windows ?

And I thought it was because there are too many of the left wing anti-growth economic establishment. (Edit: And ironically not enough of them in SW Norfolk)

Would be scandalous to let them have him on loan for another season. The one thing Stu does well is sell players for decent money. We don't want him back, he doesn't want to come back. Get a decent return and our rebuild begins

Also applies to Watford

Yes, agree entirely (and didn't mean to suggest otherwise). You definitely have to interpret xG stats, which is personally exactly why I find them interesting. As long as people don't overplay them and suggest that they're gospel truth or that they're worth more than an informed 'eye test' view, then I think they can prompt and inform a very interesting discussion, of which there is a lot on this thread. In my humble opinion, of course.

£10m seems very fair. Big Stuart looking silly again mind after stating Todd would go for £30m+😆 😀

Let's remember, because sometimes people put words in my mouth (neither of you) - xG is not the be all and end all. It's just an indicator. All I'm saying is the xG for and against indicated that Brentford might perform better than us in the Prem. Don't get me wrong, we had accumulated many more points than them and there were intangibles / factors that made me believe we'd out-perform Brentford. Naturally, I was wrong 😄 I haven't looked into West Brom in enough detail to be able to judge the million other impacting factors but on xG alone it appears they concede to very low probability chances (poor defending / goalkeeping?) and don't score from a relatively high xG ( @repman makes a very good counter argument to that). It's also worth looking into the xG graphs of a West Brom - for example, are they creating 10 really low probability chances resulting in a 1.2xg? Or do they create 2 really good chances that produce a 0.9 xG? We can then look and see if it's a problem with under-par strikers or the chances being frequent but poor (shots taken too early?)

Oh, must be true if on tw@tter then!

I think the point about comparing us and Brentford going into last season is more that their greater xG numbers suggested they may perform better against stronger competition, definitely in a defensive sense. I think West Brom will possibly be better next year but their xG has certainly been inflated by the fact they haven't been leading in so many games. This was certainly true earlier in the season I'm not sure now but I'd imagine its similar. Their keeper was the worst performer in the league in terms of xG to goals conceded, that meant they were playing many games having given the opposition a 1-0 headstart. That's always going to lead to them creating more chances and the opposition creating less. People look season by season because that's what matters in sport, if you can look at your xG and say oh well we were a bit unlucky maybe that's going to give you more hope for next year, which is what every fan wants. xG is not a perfect predictor, it has an r of about 0.7 I believe which is better than anything else such as shots or possession.

That's an amazing stat and a real corrective for those of us who think he's in decline. Where do you get your xG stats from?

I think the biggest issue in all of this is recruitment. I don’t think the notion of relying on the academy for first team regulars is particularly smart. If that’s the case everyone would be doing it. We’re now hamstrung because of fkng Brexit, so goodbye cheap European gems. We’re now reliant on a recruitment team that bought us the treat of Rashica et al and last summer’s patchy signings. Not entirely convinced with our bodies in that dept. It’s going to be interesting to see if Attanasio’s gaze falls hard on this aspect of the club’s output and not just solely player sales and wage budget.

'Manager of the Month' at Watford should be the job title!

Your first time here?

Yet another sh*t Cambridge thread. I seem to remember we played Man City after our first Farke promotion. At the time they hadn’t’t lost for ages. This type of thread appeared pre match. Can’t remember the result though!!

None, Omo would have him in his pocket. Honestly, some on here were pant wetting how many Hugill would score against us. He was sh1te.

Thanks Greavsy 😄

As I said to Hoggy: I think sometimes the difference between xG and the actual goals scored can denote luck (most obviously, as @repman says, with own goals) but also if, say, you come up against an opposition goalkeeper having an unusual stormer or an opposition player who scores a Nunez-type worldie that's a once-a-season at best moment. But even that is to do with skill - and most of the time, a team underperforming its xG in a given game means that its strikers didn't take their chances, while a team who's overperformed its xG has its goalscorers to thank for a moment or two of excellence. I think that's mostly a question of skill, or composure, rather than luck. I think xG is at its most useful in trying to analyse an overall box-to-box performance, rather than basing everything on the score. But I don't think 'luck' is a helpful concept when talking about it.

It's not just the fact that anyone watching could see that it doesn't seem to work well, the numbers back it up too. We have 34 points from games where 2 or more strikers started, and 27 from when we only started 1. Nearly a 50/50 split in terms of points, however we've started with 2 or more strikers in 29 games compared to just 12 with only 1 up top. The points per game with 2 strikers would have us 18th on 48 points, the points per game with 1 striker would have us top with 92 points. Obviously the sample size for the 1 striker games may still be too small to accurately judge, but I'd counter that we've seen plenty enough of what it's like with more than 1. Even when looking at the xG numbers we both create more and concede less chances in games with only 1 up top. At the current moment we are going through an injury crisis where we're struggling to get players in that midfield but I think there's just about enough options worth trying. I'd even rather see Tzolis playing in that no10 position over making one of the strikers attempt to do it.

Not sure there, I'd have said the frustrated and more conservative wing would head towards UKIP/Reform (depending on era) and the more liberal ones would head towards the LibDems if they wanted to protest.

Cheers Nutty for the kind intro (and not mentioning my final six form 😭😅), it was great to meet everyone after a dreary old day at Carrow Rd! 😍 I'll be looking to post the City picks after about 2ish on Friday so get them all in. Nutty, I'll wing you some cash so we can cover as many picks as possible, no suggestion too outlandish, so PUPs go for it! 💛💚 Apples

Can't wait! Thanks Nutty. As usual when I select the final six each and every selection will be checked and considered until the last moment. Nutty I shall post my six Friday evening around 6.30pm. Good luck everybody.

Whatever negativity is on here they still have to face the uncomfortable fact that it is in our hands now. Nothing I or they say can change that. So it is a case of how you see it. To me, great. I wasn't expecting that so I'll enjoy it while it lasts. Rather like being told at closing time, the pub is going to stay open for another hour "ooh no, I'll have to spend some more money, what happens if they add another hour after that one, this means an hour less sleep...... whine, moan" - so it's on to Riverside with Robinson Crusoe's favourite song

More investigations by the standards commission. Including a shocked and surprised Matt Hancock. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65253933

I think it's probably the case that both things can be true. Pukki has declined a bit, he's 33 which is well beyond what you'd consider his prime age years. But it's also the case that we are not creating the chances in a similar manner to his 2 previous championship seasons.

Yes, true. It is sport and yes, the gulf between Championship and PL is big. Forest are struggling and spent a good part of £200m, so I understand. Wages will compound that too. Would I actually feel much love for a bought for club like Man City? It would be novel if ever us, but something of the soul has left too for me when I see them. I admire the technical skill, strength and speed of the players (presumably all costing over £20m each and with high wages too) but it's also a hollow feeling. It's money talking. And in the perpetual media rounds it literally is money talking. It's an interesting question about Farke you've raised. I felt upon the first promotion we were due a comfortable mid table finish. I was so wrong. The differences in power and strength were all too apparent. I do enjoy seeing a smaller team (stature wise) ...say Brighton or Fulham beat teams - not that I like either particularly, but because the narrative of much money versus a little money is challenged. Albeit briefly. Fair play to Brentford too. It shows something is possible. Yet, don't we all know it's temporary? Something that isn't true for Arsenal, the Manchester's etc. I wish they would just create their own league. I suppose I'm someone who likes resources to be spread as evenly as possible (back to politics) and therefore elitist sport is just not very interesting to me. Buy the best and excel....Well, so what...that's my take. Far better watching say an athlete win a run having trained like hell for 4 years. That is an emotional thing to watch (and I'm not especially a fan of athletics - just an example). It's all about perspective. As a club we probably are in the top 25 in the country. We DO get to see a Buendia from time to time. We have been able to 'pull our weight'. Since my son was born we've had a wonderful 20+ years in my view. I suppose what I'm really saying is that not too much irks me about player performances nor makes me want to post my anger. I often would start with different teams than Wagner does but I'm just a supporter. I did intensely like Roeder (RIP) and was happy he went. He wasn't a fit for me. Just want to see more continuity and for Wagner to have a decent few years. We can't win every time. And I don't see a lack of effort from any team player, even in this disappointing season (so far).

Maybe football is just becoming more and more of a product. Maybe it already is. Especially higher up the football league chain. Go to a non league team and expectations and the whole experience is markedly different of course. A loss is one of those things. A player having an awful game is a subject for myrrh. There is a darker humour but nevertheless there is a solidity in support. It's the same with the managerial merry-go-round we see every year. No long term attempt to stick with a vision. If you are lucky you might get a 5 year plan 😅....we used to have one of those. We nearly even stuck at it all the way through but decided to bail out. Consumerism (even Roy Keane's prawn sandwich comments ....scampi for us🙂 was a reference) is a good term. Look at the prices to 'support' your team. Folk want a return for the money at the end of the day. For some though being a fan remains a love for life. Such fans tend to be less critical (on the whole) - I think. And the older you get the more you consider the passing of time and re-evaluate what's really important in life.

I would have thought xG is more about expectation than chance and is a reasonable indicator of the progressiveness of your general play. If you just wanted to create a chance of scoring then just lump the ball in the box and wait for a lucky break. Sure there will be an element of luck but generally xG is a good indicator of your finishing. Unfortunately ours was really poor against Rotherham.

Well, I for one, am fearing another season in the Championship as much as some seem to be scared stiff of the team being pitted against the might of the Premier League. Of course it might be down to Annatasio with regards investment, but otherwise it seem squite credible to assume that the rather rapid decline in the club's fortunes over the past tweelve months might well continue should there not be sufficient funds to be competitive. This would likely lead to our better and younger performers such as Sara and Omo, along with Aarons jumping ship and us being reliant upon raw youth and cheapies from here there and anywhere. Decline come quickly in football ask the supporters of Derby, Sunderland and others. Also, with ITFC finally on the up I am fearful of the so-called cyclical effect being seen to prevail in East Anglian football. Humiliation in the Premier League? So what? Losing to the binners at Carrow Road would be far, far more humiliating in my book.

Absolutely this. Pukki either as a #10 or wide right given that he tends to operate in that inside right channel anyway. He is such an intelligent player that he would suit either role. In fact if memory serves it was where he was initially signed to play with Rhodes at #9. Ironically the only player who would have the vision to give Pukki the sort of service that he would thrive on is actually probably Pukki ... But if nothing else it gives Sargent time to develop as a central striker which is what we are going to need him to be next season, and hopefully gets him back to his early season form.

I planned on posting last night, but didn’t arrive home until very late! Despite the result, I enjoyed the game…I don’t think anyone could argue that we didn’t deserve to win. Very good opening 20 mins or so…if Pukki or Sargent take their chances in that period I think it would have been a very comfortable win. We huffed and puffed second half & the obsession of playing it out from the back seemed to frustrate everyone around me (indeed we nearly scored first half via a Gunn ‘boot down the middle’) As a solo fan yesterday, thanks to the chaps around me in the Barclay Upper for their company…myself and one bloke nearly banged heads as Tzolis blazed that last min chance high and wide! As for the drum…slightly ambivalent. The Sara song was painfully overdone! Miss the old ‘just can’t get enough’ days…

Six months ago I'd probably have agreed with you but he's somehow looked worse in the Championship this season than he did when we were getting slapped in the EPL.

I think we have to acknowledge that our current injury list has forced Wagner's hand a little. I'm sure he'd have played an unchanged side from the Blackburn game if we hadn't lost two players during it, forcing us to move a midfielder back into defence. That said, I do basically agree. Really think if Sargent is going to play he has to be at centre-forward. The thing I am surprised by is that we haven't tried Pukki behind him as a sort of 10. He's such an intelligent player that he seems much better suited to that role than Josh. I understand how difficult it must be as a coach to leave Pukki out: for all his apparent decline this season he's still pretty close to being our best player. But if you're trying to get him and Sargent in the same team, the opposite of the current solution seems an obvious one to me. Wonder why neither Smith or Wagner tried it?

Marquinhos is getting the best out of Sara which I'm fine with. I actually quite like him. He gives us directness along with Hernandez.

Exactly, he is the one accountable for the recruiting and he didn’t replace the two most crucial players Emi and Skipp - he overloaded the squad with unproven wingers who had failed in Germany or took another punt on crocked players - it works a few times but not continuously as we have found out.

Had McCallum been able to play 90 minutes it would have surely been him.