Back in the fight, or cut adrift?

[Sooty57 414]

After tonight's results the game against Leicester takes on even more importance. A win puts us above them, just 2 points behind Ipswich who are in second spot. A loss, and there is just one point separating the top three, with us five points adrift.

It seems ridiculous to be talking of 'crunch' games this early in the season, but it really does have that feel about it.

Edited September 19, 2023 by Sooty57
fat fingers hitting the '0' key in error

[GJL Mid-Norfolk Canary 2,035]

Seems nobody us talking about the team who are actually top.....depends on whether anyone expects them to be able to stay there?

[Branston Pickle 4,150]

What now - we’ve played 6 league games. How the hell can anyone in their right mind think this is a ‘crunch’ game and/or that we’ll be cut adrift….there’ll be 39 games left after tomorrow!!!

[cambridgeshire canary 7,798]

3 minutes ago, GJL Mid-Norfolk Canary said:

Seems nobody us talking about the team who are actually top.....depends on whether anyone expects them to be able to stay there?

It's amusing how Preston are THE perfect number one midtable championship club and even they are top of the table.

Let's see what the table looks like come new year

[Indy 3,471]

1 minute ago, Branston Pickle said:

What now - we’ve played 6 league games. How the hell can anyone in their right mind think this is a ‘crunch’ game and/or that we’ll be cut adrift….there’ll be 39 games left after tomorrow!!!

We’ll be 20 points adrift? How or is that just a bit of fun? 

[Indy 3,471]

13 minutes ago, Sooty57 said:

After tonight's results the game against Leicester takes on even more importance. A win puts us above them, just 20 points behind Ipswich who are in second spot. A loss, and there is just one point separating the top three, with us five points adrift.

It seems ridiculous to be talking of 'crunch' games this early in the season, but it really does have that feel about it.

I’m not sure 20 points is that big a gap! 😉

[nutty nigel 7,902]

If we'll be cut adrift Southampton, Leeds, Watford and West Brom are fooked whilst Boro are relegated

Happy Days

[Wacky Waving Inflatable Arm Flailing Tube Man 4,618]

17 minutes ago, Indy said:

We’ll be 20 points adrift? How or is that just a bit of fun? 

I think it will be even more than that, right? Ipswich were basically promoted after three games, so those wins must have been worth about 15 points each. 

[Well b back 3,605]

It seems ridiculous to be talking of 'crunch' games this early in the season, 
 

You’re right not only does it seem, but it is.

[Pyro Pete 2,353]

Mmm, Nestlé Crunch.

[Ernie Wise 112]

1 hour ago, Sooty57 said:

After tonight's results the game against Leicester takes on even more importance. A win puts us above them, just 20 points behind Ipswich who are in second spot. A loss, and there is just one point separating the top three, with us five points adrift.

It seems ridiculous to be talking of 'crunch' games this early in the season, but it really does have that feel about it.

Was it our 2020/21 championship winning season when Reading were 7 or 8 points clear early on? What happened to them?🤔

[Sooty57 414]

1 hour ago, Indy said:

We’ll be 20 points adrift? How or is that just a bit of fun? 

hit the '0' in error - now corrected

[If wed kept Howie.. 300]

W T A F

[Billyboybunters 27]

QPR were top after 15 games last season and only just survived relegation!

[BroadstairsR 2,273]

Every game is a crunch game for me. Every point counts whether at the start of the season or at the end. Stating the obvious day.

I particularly dislike the way ITFC seem to be flying and am uncomfortable with them sitting above us in the league, let alone opening up a gap in the points tally. 

Beating Leicester tonight will be a massive confidence booster and a major factor in mitigating against the loss of Sargent. It will demonstrate that Wagnerball can succeed against the best without that vital ingredient and will announce the club as real contenders for a play-off place at least. It might well also indicate any sort of  tactical change employed by the manager to make up for the loss of action man ... whether this be resorting to a more populated/defensive midfield with one up-front or changing around the starting personnel in some way or another.

Citing examples of others who have flown at the beginning of the season only to fold later is not valid and perhaps indicates a lack of strength in depth as the long season takes its toll. I like to think that in young Gibbs, Sorensen, Nunez, Saintz and others that we have just that. PNE and even ITFC might not equal that,  but that's no reason to dismiss any lead they may open up at this stage of the season.

I'm with the O/P.  

 

 

Edited September 20, 2023 by BroadstairsR

[Petriix 3,219]

I wouldn't call this a 'crunch' game at all. What it is...is a genuine test of our aspirations against one of the best teams in the league. This is more of a barometer of how we would fare in the Premier League than the Championship.

Remember in Farke's first title season we were 17th with 4 points after 6 games. We didn't beat the other top 4 teams and were arguably worse than them in direct competition. However, winning the Championship is about accumulating points across the whole season. 

[Nuff Said 5,964]

9 hours ago, Ernie Wise said:

Was it our 2020/21 championship winning season when Reading were 7 or 8 points clear early on? What happened to them?🤔

The thing about Reading that season was that (tin hat on) all the stats like xG showed their results were a run of flukes, and over the whole season those stats turned out to be a pretty good predictor. I’ve read the statistical domination thread with interest about our performances but not seen anything about our close rivals. Does anyone have a summary to share?

Edited September 20, 2023 by Nuff Said

[hogesar 10,765]

I actually don't think this game is hugely relevant. They have comfortably the best squad in this league and should cruise to the title. Win or lose this decides nothing - it may help a bit with confidence but you'd have thought the same when we beat Man City at home (not comparing). 

Under Farke we didn't really get results against the other top teams yet won the division comfortably. 

Plus, 5 points this early in the season is nothing. 

[hogesar 10,765]

9 minutes ago, Nuff Said said:

The thing about Reading that season was that (tin hat on) all the stats like xG showed their results were a run of flukes, and over the whole season those stats turned out to be a pretty good predictor. I’ve read the statistical domination thread with interest about our performances but not seen anything about our close rivals. Does anyone have a summary to share?

Take that tin hat off right now!

It was really, really clear using xG that Reading were never going to keep that up. So far, we are in the top 6 both for chances created and for defensive solidarity (xGA). 

Reading were exceptionally clinical in that early period but it was by such a margin that even with Haaland up front for them you wouldn't have said it was ever going to continue throughout the season.

Speaking of Haaland, he's performing a bit under his xG for the first time.

[Midlands Yellow 4,682]

2 minutes ago, hogesar said:

I actually don't think this game is hugely relevant. They have comfortably the best squad in this league and should cruise to the title. Win or lose this decides nothing - it may help a bit with confidence but you'd have thought the same when we beat Man City at home (not comparing). 

Under Farke we didn't really get results against the other top teams yet won the division comfortably. 

Plus, 5 points this early in the season is nothing. 

Cruise to the title? Admittedly they are down to 2/1 from 6/1 to win the title. That’s still a 66.6*% chance they don’t according to the bookies. 

[Leedscanary 389]

Every game is important. 
 

I remember last season under Dean Smith (shudder) we were top, unbeaten in 5(?) and could have gone 6 points in front of Burnley. 
 

We lost and went on the downward spiral that ultimately defined our season. 
 

Momentum is key, some may see Leicester as a free hit but I’d expect at least a draw

[TheBaldOne66 768]

16 minutes ago, hogesar said:

I actually don't think this game is hugely relevant. They have comfortably the best squad in this league and should cruise to the title. Win or lose this decides nothing - it may help a bit with confidence but you'd have thought the same when we beat Man City at home (not comparing). 

Under Farke we didn't really get results against the other top teams yet won the division comfortably. 

Plus, 5 points this early in the season is nothing. 

Weren’t we all told we had the best squad in the division last season? Look how well that turned out. What a squad looks like on paper doesnt necessarily bear fruit on the pitch

[Nuff Said 5,964]

29 minutes ago, hogesar said:

Take that tin hat off right now!

It was really, really clear using xG that Reading were never going to keep that up. So far, we are in the top 6 both for chances created and for defensive solidarity (xGA). 

Reading were exceptionally clinical in that early period but it was by such a margin that even with Haaland up front for them you wouldn't have said it was ever going to continue throughout the season.

Speaking of Haaland, he's performing a bit under his xG for the first time.

Are the others in the top 6 the same as those in the top 6 of the actual table? (He asked desperately hoping that the binners aren’t)

[Capt. Pants 5,010]

1 hour ago, Petriix said:

I wouldn't call this a 'crunch' game at all. What it is...is a genuine test of our aspirations against one of the best teams in the league. This is more of a barometer of how we would fare in the Premier League than the Championship.

Remember in Farke's first title season we were 17th with 4 points after 6 games. We didn't beat the other top 4 teams and were arguably worse than them in direct competition. However, winning the Championship is about accumulating points across the whole season. 

Agree with most of this. Across the whole season this game has little relevance, but the performance might. 

For me, it's how we learn to play, create chances and score goals without Sargent in the team. Tbh on the strength of the Rotherham and Stoke games I'm a little worried.

The period without Josh may well define our season and we had the opportunity in the transfer window to address that. We chose Hwang.

Interesting challenge tonight.

 

[keelansgrandad 6,680]

Sooty is a bit nervous obviously.

[hogesar 10,765]

4 hours ago, Midlands Yellow said:

Cruise to the title? Admittedly they are down to 2/1 from 6/1 to win the title. That’s still a 66.6*% chance they don’t according to the bookies. 

The closest to them are nearly 7 to 1. I.e Leicester are 3.5x more likely to win it than them, and 5x more likely than us. If we're using bookies odds.

[A Load of Squit 6,260]

We've got 90 minutes to save our season! 😀

[Barham Blitz 869]

Aren't we due a 'beating Leicester could relegate us' post sometime around now ?

[Sooty57 414]

7 hours ago, BroadstairsR said:

Every game is a crunch game for me. Every point counts whether at the start of the season or at the end. Stating the obvious day.

I particularly dislike the way ITFC seem to be flying and am uncomfortable with them sitting above us in the league, let alone opening up a gap in the points tally. 

Beating Leicester tonight will be a massive confidence booster and a major factor in mitigating against the loss of Sargent. It will demonstrate that Wagnerball can succeed against the best without that vital ingredient and will announce the club as real contenders for a play-off place at least. It might well also indicate any sort of  tactical change employed by the manager to make up for the loss of action man ... whether this be resorting to a more populated/defensive midfield with one up-front or changing around the starting personnel in some way or another.

Citing examples of others who have flown at the beginning of the season only to fold later is not valid and perhaps indicates a lack of strength in depth as the long season takes its toll. I like to think that in young Gibbs, Sorensen, Nunez, Saintz and others that we have just that. PNE and even ITFC might not equal that,  but that's no reason to dismiss any lead they may open up at this stage of the season.

I'm with the O/P.  

 

 

What I meant by my original post..... but put far more eloquently 

[Sooty57 414]

4 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

Sooty is a bit nervous obviously.

Not nervous, but also not totally convinced that we are quite there as a complete package to compete for an automatic promotion spot, particularly if we let a few teams steal an early march on us.