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1 hour ago, PurpleCanary said:

Re Attanasio, no news is good news, right?!

What do we know for certain? Only that in a private deal Attanasio has bought Foulger’s shares.  Except we don’t know that for certain, because there are at least three different tranches of what might be called Foulger’s shares.

There is the total family holding of around 98,000 of the controlling Ordinary shares. But Foulger split that up a while back, while keeping the voting rights to it all, so it could be the 80,000 he passed onto his daughter. Or the 18,000 he held onto for himself.

The reports from the EDP and The Athletic put the holding Attanasio bought at about 16 per cent of the total, which would mean it was the whole 98,000, give or take a few kept back. But The Athletic apparently also said Attanasio had paid only £3m, which would seem on the low side for nearly 100,000 shares.

My guess is that it was the largest tranche, but in one sense it doesn’t matter, since this was a private transaction that put money into the Foulger family rather than the club (as opposed to Attanasio’s £10m purchase of non-voting C preference shares, which did benefit the club), and whichever tranche was bought was large enough to qualify Attanasio as a director, which he subsequently became.

But it matters in terms of where Attanasio stands as far as increasing his holding, and perhaps even becoming the majority owner, goes, because the club has made available nearly 200,000 new Ordinaries. The obvious assumption, which I share, is that these were earmarked for Attanasio.

And if he already has 16 per cent then buying all or even just most of the new shares would put him comfortably over the 30 per cent mark. It would also reduce S&J’s percentage holding so they were no longer majority owners.* At which point Attanasio would officially be regarded as having launched a takeover and would have to offer to buy everyone else’s shares.**

And that would be at the highest price he has paid in the last 12 months. So not only is the size of the Foulger tranche relevant but potentially so is the price Attanasio paid, bearing in mind there are other decent-sized minority holdings, such as RG Carter’s, he might have acquired. And bearing in main the price for the new shares.

But here we come to an odd hiatus. Shareholders voted to allocate these 194,512 new Ordinaries on February 13, and two months on there has been no news, apart from a gnomic statement from the club about legal details to be worked through.

As a matter of corporate law, if Attanasio had or has bought them and gone past 30 per cent then there should have been an immediate announcement. In fact as I understand the law, even his telling the club he intended to buy them should have provoked an announcement, but I may be misreading that clause.

One has to assume then that Attanasio has not bought the new shares, or at least not enough to breach the 30 per cent barrier. Which might indicate he didn’t buy that many Foulger shares. But then why has he not yet acquired all or most of the shares that seemingly were created just for him?

I am afraid I discount the delicious theory that S&J have snaffled them up. It would explain why there has been no takeover announcement, since it would be a continuation of the status quo. But I can see no way in which that would make any sense, apart the fun of sending this message-board into a spluttering rage to end all spluttering rages, with the forum actually exploding, like one of those computers on Star Trek faced with a Mr Spock riddle.

I like Shef’s notion that Attanasio paid more than he wanted to for whatever he bought from Foulger, and so – particularly with another season in the Championship looming – is having to wait until a year has passed so that price is no longer the benchmark. I love its negative creativity, but I am afraid I doubt it.

I don’t believe Attanasio was banking on us getting back straight away to the Premier League (his approach with the Milwaukee Brewers seems to have been long-term and consolidatory) and it would need this tough US hedge-fund tycoon to have been outsmarted by a Norfolk chicken farmer.***

It is possible the deal has been done and the club simply doesn’t realise the Takeover Code demands an announcement, but I gather people involved in this do know it applies.

Perhaps, in optimistic contrast to Shef’s pessimism, Attanasio is just waiting for the football (as opposed to the baseball) season to end, to tie the news in with an announcement of his plans (including perhaps at least one new board member) and hopes for next season and beyond. 

*The EDP reported that the allocation or creation of these Ordinary shares has already pushed S&J’s holding below 50 per cent but my understanding is that until they are actually bought by someone that may not legally be the case and certainly in effect is not the case. In practice until they are bought by someone and so can be used in votes S&J still have a controlling 53 per cent.

**There is a procedure called a whitewash waiver by which shareholders can decide that Attanasio (in this case) would not have to offer to buy out everyone. However I suspect he would want the chance, and I for one would want him to be bound to do so.

***That of course is grossly unfair on Foulger, but I could not resist the cheapskate contrast.

Re The legal details to be worked through . Do you think this in any way could be linked to Delia and Michael relinquishing some of their shareholding or purely the acquisition of the newly allocated shareholding.

 

it would be helpful to know unequivocally how many shares MA obtained from Foulger and how many other minority shareholdings he purchased …

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1 minute ago, Soldier on said:

Re The legal details to be worked through . Do you think this in any way could be linked to Delia and Michael relinquishing some of their shareholding or purely the acquisition of the newly allocated shareholding.

 

it would be helpful to know unequivocally how many shares MA obtained from Foulger and how many other minority shareholdings he purchased …

I don't know. it was an odd statement because it didn't explain whether it was referring to the legalities of someone having bought some or all of the shares, or just the legalities of making the shares available before any sale. Or the legalities of S&J potentially losing majority control. Or something else I haven't thought of!😍

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1 minute ago, PurpleCanary said:

I don't know. it was an odd statement because it didn't explain whether it was referring to the legalities of someone having bought some or all of the shares, or just the legalities of making the shares available before any sale. Or the legalities of S&J potentially losing majority control. Or something else I haven't thought of!😍

Can only presume it’s further down the line than we think and nothing has been mentioned so as not to detract from an ailing play off push ?

expectation is there will be some major news as soon as the season is finished but at this point who knows .

The fans could definitely use some positive news / intent for next season and beyond though.

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I would not be surprised if there was a full US take over announced as well as the departures of Webber's and Wagner shortly after the final whistle of the season.

He would want a total clean slate to start with I would expect and that includes this current misery of a season.

 

Edited by Nexus_Canary

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9 minutes ago, Nexus_Canary said:

I would not be surprised if there was a full US take over announced as well as the departures of Webber's and Wagner shortly after the final whistle of the season.

He would want a total clean slate to start with I would expect and that includes this current misery of a season.

 

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I’m still puzzled by the proposal to allot 194,152 shares. It’s a specific number with, seemingly, no apparent reason to it.

One thing I’ve mentioned before, Michael Foulger is due to step down as a director this summer. What odds he’s replaced by another from the Attanasio stable, who also picks up these shares, and injecting new equity at the same time.

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1 hour ago, GMF said:

I’m still puzzled by the proposal to allot 194,152 shares. It’s a specific number with, seemingly, no apparent reason to it.

One thing I’ve mentioned before, Michael Foulger is due to step down as a director this summer. What odds he’s replaced by another from the Attanasio stable, who also picks up these shares, and injecting new equity at the same time.

GMF, that looks like a distinct possibility. I certainly expect at least one more Attanasio-affiliated director.

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Sooner they Americans get hold of city the better, and hopefully see through Webber and his Mrs who think they are untouchable 

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50 minutes ago, PurpleCanary said:

GMF, that looks like a distinct possibility. I certainly expect at least one more Attanasio-affiliated director.

Was expected to be Richard Ressler wasn’t it ?

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There are of course benefits to buying distressed assets.

We are distressed in a sporting sense and have some financial distress in that we have forward contracted some of our monies due. 

Attanasio is now moving into the kind of territory that is comfortable to him. 

You have an attractive asset owner who is about to run into difficulties paying for its basic upkeep.

The asset has inherent equity gain value that is as yet unrealised.

This puts you in the elegant position - as you have some cash that you can inject - of looking good buying equity, whilst saying all the right things of course.

You inevitably present positively as offering a brighter tomorrow by virtue of simply being someone else to the current owner. 

You then rubber-stamp this impression by throwing some sexy early money at signings, perhaps even leveraging the club a little for some eye-catching, popular - and possibly overdue - infrastructure improvements. 

This fun early dice roll gives you a reasonable shout at a promotion within a year or two. Perfect. All was ‘true’.

Or. 

The investments you inject amount to somewhere south of the current c£43m equity gain - that the thoroughly decent, though perhaps over-credulous -  current owner has, willingly or blindly,  bequeathed you .

At some point within or around the c£43million ‘invested’ mark, you take on new American cousins to ‘help get you to the next level’ or you receive an offer ‘you can’t refuse’.

How generous were you? 

Parma 
 

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4 hours ago, Nexus_Canary said:

I would not be surprised if there was a full US take over announced as well as the departures of Webber's and Wagner shortly after the final whistle of the season.

He would want a total clean slate to start with I would expect and that includes this current misery of a season.

 

That won't happen as from what we hear the boy Attanasio thinks Webber is the 'main man'. He will want some 'stability' in terms of club management personnel in his first season at least while he works out just what a mess NCFC is in. Then, when he has begun to understand the issues of running an English professional football club a little better, he may 'come to an agreement' with Webber to dispense with said person's services but I can't see Webber going anywhere for another 12 months at least. Ditto Z Ward / Webber.   

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1 minute ago, yellowrider120 said:

That won't happen as from what we hear the boy Attanasio thinks Webber is the 'main man'. He will want some 'stability' in terms of club management personnel in his first season at least while he works out just what a mess NCFC is in. Then, when he has begun to understand the issues of running an English professional football club a little better, he may 'come to an agreement' with Webber to dispense with said person's services but I can't see Webber going anywhere for another 12 months at least. Ditto Z Ward / Webber.   

To be honest its pretty much way it should be, but with change at the top comes expectation, pressure but also tools to do the job expected, be it funds, people or structure. Webber is only a small cog in the machine but a very important cog. Replace him in due time with a stronger part but to take time to understand the mechanism first.

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My worry is Attanasio has no experience working in football and probably has few if any contacts to get advice from. So he takes over and decides Webber isn't up to the task...fine. But when choosing his successor how does he identify the candidate? Can he speak to a contact at Spurs like Delia did to find Webber? Or would be taken in by a charismatic charlatan who interviews well and says the right things but is ultimately not up to the job? We see this time and time again with new owners who are new to football and they hire the wrong people in upper management roles or they bring in their mates who have no experience working in football in terms of hiring/firing/building a strategy/working in the transfer market etc 

As poor as Webber has been in terms of transfers over the last few years I honestly hope he's kept on if and when Attanasio takes full control because I shudder at the thought of an ex Milwaukee Brewers GM or a CEO from another field being given the job. Football is a unique environment, watch the Sunderland documentary to see how easily well meaning owners with little experience can be suckered in by charlatans and how complicated completing transfers are. 

This is the big unknown for me. yes it would be nice to have an owner who has enough money to maybe not spend our way to success but perhaps keep a Buendia and buy a Skipp upon promotion but what experience does he have hiring people in football to work for him? Would he get caught up in the heat of it all, bow to pressure and make stupid last minute signings in transfer windows, get burned and then never invest again? There are so many unknowns right and it could all go horribly wrong very quickly. We have our glass ceiling with Delia and MWJ but at least they have enough knowledge, experience and contacts in the game to find good people to manage the football side of the club for them. It took them about 15 years to come to the conclusion that they need qualified football people to run the club and that it's better if they took a back seat and their record as owners has been pretty decent since then, would people be willing to let Attanasio have 15 years to figure things out? 

Edited by Christoph Stiepermann
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2 hours ago, Hucks6 said:

Sooner they Americans get hold of city the better, and hopefully see through Webber and his Mrs who think they are untouchable 

Exactly. 

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But what if they don't? What if the starred  and striped glasses show the Webber's in a good light...

Edited by nutty nigel
Glory glory Norwich City 💛🇺🇸💚
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The thing I like about the club model at the moment is the certainty it brings. You know the type of players we are going to buy buy cheap sell high run the club to break even at best.

Was selling Buendia a surprise No, if we sell Sara in the summer will it be a surprise no it won’t. Everyone knows that is how the club operates sure you might hate it but you know how the game works and what to expect.

If the Yanks takeover all of a sudden there is doubt all over the shop. As they do have the money to blow the wage budget, incentivise players to stay etc… so selling a key player is a choice not a strategy this is much harder to communicate if you ask me.

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4 hours ago, Soldier on said:

Was expected to be Richard Ressler wasn’t it ?

If I remember Attanasio and Ressler have been friends since college, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he would be the obvious choice.

It depends whether Attanasio (assuming he in effect takes over) just needs another vote or whether he wants a director/investor who will be his voice on the board, and an active participant, perhaps with expertise in a section of the business that seems under-exploited.

Ressler might fit the latter bill or he might have too much on his plate and so might not. I have no idea. Just to add, if it was an Attanasio associate who bought the new shares they would I believe be regarded as acting in concert, and so their holdings would be added together, potentially bringing the 30 per cent rule into play.

 

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4 hours ago, Christoph Stiepermann said:

My worry is Attanasio has no experience working in football and probably has few if any contacts to get advice from. So he takes over and decides Webber isn't up to the task...fine. But when choosing his successor how does he identify the candidate? Can he speak to a contact at Spurs like Delia did to find Webber? Or would be taken in by a charismatic charlatan who interviews well and says the right things but is ultimately not up to the job? We see this time and time again with new owners who are new to football and they hire the wrong people in upper management roles or they bring in their mates who have no experience working in football in terms of hiring/firing/building a strategy/working in the transfer market etc 

As poor as Webber has been in terms of transfers over the last few years I honestly hope he's kept on if and when Attanasio takes full control because I shudder at the thought of an ex Milwaukee Brewers GM or a CEO from another field being given the job. Football is a unique environment, watch the Sunderland documentary to see how easily well meaning owners with little experience can be suckered in by charlatans and how complicated completing transfers are. 

This is the big unknown for me. yes it would be nice to have an owner who has enough money to maybe not spend our way to success but perhaps keep a Buendia and buy a Skipp upon promotion but what experience does he have hiring people in football to work for him? Would he get caught up in the heat of it all, bow to pressure and make stupid last minute signings in transfer windows, get burned and then never invest again? There are so many unknowns right and it could all go horribly wrong very quickly. We have our glass ceiling with Delia and MWJ but at least they have enough knowledge, experience and contacts in the game to find good people to manage the football side of the club for them. It took them about 15 years to come to the conclusion that they need qualified football people to run the club and that it's better if they took a back seat and their record as owners has been pretty decent since then, would people be willing to let Attanasio have 15 years to figure things out? 

Go watch interviews with him. He's friends with Liverpools owners and has been looking into imvesting in a football club for ten years.

Plus, though baseball is a different sport, it still has agents, endorsements and a similar international market.

As for 15yrs... the nepotism thing is amusing. His sons are involved and in 15yrs time Attanasio senior will be 80. He's bringing an ownership legacy to the club.

His measured approach already suggests he has a good idea how to approach it IMHO.

In fact, I have a sneaky suspission that the Liverpool connection is just a bit too coincidental when it comes to Webber and Ward.

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4 hours ago, nutty nigel said:

But what if they don't? What if the starred  and striped glasses show the Webber's in a good light...

People are forgetting Webber and Ward were the ones who enticed Attanasio to Norwich.

Not only that, but the common link to Liverpool.

Lastly, all of a sudden Ward has been brought into this too. Not sure what she has done wrong tbh?

I see that some tools are suggesting she's stopping Webber getting sacked... which is ofcourse, utter BS.

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I think re Webber, opinions seem to be too black and white, either he's the messiah responsible for everything that's gone right in the last 5 years, or he's the devil incarnate. I've been guilty of wanting him gone, but maybe the answer is somewhere in between.  I actually wouldn't be adverse to him staying on at a business level but having all recruitment responsibilities taken away from him and people brought in to overhaul the whole scouting and recruitment department. 

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2 minutes ago, Ken Hairy said:

I think re Webber, opinions seem to be too black and white, either he's the messiah responsible for everything that's gone right in the last 5 years, or he's the devil incarnate. I've been guilty of wanting him gone, but maybe the answer is somewhere in between.  I actually wouldn't be adverse to him staying on at a business level but having all recruitment responsibilities taken away from him and people brought in to overhaul the whole scouting and recruitment department. 

Who took over Kieran Scott’s role assisting him with recruitment ? When you look at the number of staff chelsea employ in these roles it does seem Webber may be guilty of taking on rather too much !

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1 minute ago, Soldier on said:

Who took over Kieran Scott’s role assisting him with recruitment ? When you look at the number of staff chelsea employ in these roles it does seem Webber may be guilty of taking on rather too much !

I think you're exactly right, I think regardless of ownership our first priority right now should be employing more suitable people into the recruitment department. 

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13 hours ago, Parma Ham's gone mouldy said:

The asset has inherent equity gain value that is as yet unrealised.

Has anyone suggested a coherent solution to this situation? The two obvious ones, that Delia and Michael 'cash out' when they hand over control of the club, or that they essentially 'give' Attanasio £43million for nothing, both have serious problems attached.

Is there a workable 'third way'? Is there some mechanism whereby D&M could use this value to gift a stake in the club to something like the supporters' trust - some kind of body that keeps Attanasio honest and keeps some aspect of the club in community hands.

As will already have become obvious, I have no expertise in the financial side of this, but just wondered whether anyone has outlined a way out of this that doesn't just involve D&M (now) or MA (in the future) just making a pile of cash. (Obviously D&M would be more than entitled to said cash, it's just not a great look...)

Would be very interested in @PurpleCanary, @GMF and others' informed views on this.

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12 hours ago, Christoph Stiepermann said:

My worry is Attanasio has no experience working in football and probably has few if any contacts to get advice from. So he takes over and decides Webber isn't up to the task...fine. But when choosing his successor how does he identify the candidate? Can he speak to a contact at Spurs like Delia did to find Webber? Or would be taken in by a charismatic charlatan who interviews well and says the right things but is ultimately not up to the job? We see this time and time again with new owners who are new to football and they hire the wrong people in upper management roles or they bring in their mates who have no experience working in football in terms of hiring/firing/building a strategy/working in the transfer market etc 

As poor as Webber has been in terms of transfers over the last few years I honestly hope he's kept on if and when Attanasio takes full control because I shudder at the thought of an ex Milwaukee Brewers GM or a CEO from another field being given the job. Football is a unique environment, watch the Sunderland documentary to see how easily well meaning owners with little experience can be suckered in by charlatans and how complicated completing transfers are. 

This is the big unknown for me. yes it would be nice to have an owner who has enough money to maybe not spend our way to success but perhaps keep a Buendia and buy a Skipp upon promotion but what experience does he have hiring people in football to work for him? Would he get caught up in the heat of it all, bow to pressure and make stupid last minute signings in transfer windows, get burned and then never invest again? There are so many unknowns right and it could all go horribly wrong very quickly. We have our glass ceiling with Delia and MWJ but at least they have enough knowledge, experience and contacts in the game to find good people to manage the football side of the club for them. It took them about 15 years to come to the conclusion that they need qualified football people to run the club and that it's better if they took a back seat and their record as owners has been pretty decent since then, would people be willing to let Attanasio have 15 years to figure things out? 

We currently have a charlatan who speaks well but in reality isn’t up to the job so I’m not sure we’d be much worse off even in that worst case scenario!

Even a charlatan could probably identify the gaps in our squad that Webber seems incapable of dealing with. 

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Good to see that speculation coupled with if ,buts and maybe is rife on this thread again.

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24 minutes ago, TIL 1010 said:

Good to see that speculation coupled with if ,buts and maybe is rife on this thread again.

To be fair there’s not much on the pitch to talk about!!

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