Mark Attanasio

[PurpleCanary 5,562]

42 minutes ago, Robert N. LiM said:

Has anyone suggested a coherent solution to this situation? The two obvious ones, that Delia and Michael 'cash out' when they hand over control of the club, or that they essentially 'give' Attanasio £43million for nothing, both have serious problems attached.

Is there a workable 'third way'? Is there some mechanism whereby D&M could use this value to gift a stake in the club to something like the supporters' trust - some kind of body that keeps Attanasio honest and keeps some aspect of the club in community hands.

As will already have become obvious, I have no expertise in the financial side of this, but just wondered whether anyone has outlined a way out of this that doesn't just involve D&M (now) or MA (in the future) just making a pile of cash. (Obviously D&M would be more than entitled to said cash, it's just not a great look...)

Would be very interested in @PurpleCanary, @GMF and others' informed views on this.

Robert, I should think there is a third way, given some creative thinking, but it's beyond any area of expertise I might have.

[Parma Ham's gone mouldy 2,220]

36 minutes ago, TIL 1010 said:

Good to see that speculation coupled with if ,buts and maybe is rife on this thread again.

Til, this is almost certainly the most important issue faced by Norwich City Football Club in quarter of a century.

It will quite likely have a fundamental influence on the direction of travel - and likelihood of increased success or otherwise - of the club and team for perhaps the next decade.

If there was ever a time for interested minds to kick around possibilities, implications and possible outcomes, then this is surely it?

Parma 

[Soldier on 160]

9 minutes ago, Parma Ham's gone mouldy said:

Til, this is almost certainly the most important issue faced by Norwich City Football Club in quarter of a century.

It will quite likely have a fundamental influence on the direction of travel - and likelihood of increased success or otherwise - of the club and team for perhaps the next decade.

If there was ever a time for interested minds to kick around possibilities, implications and possible outcomes, then this is surely it?

Parma 

Precisely ….

[GMF 745]

54 minutes ago, Robert N. LiM said:

Has anyone suggested a coherent solution to this situation? The two obvious ones, that Delia and Michael 'cash out' when they hand over control of the club, or that they essentially 'give' Attanasio £43million for nothing, both have serious problems attached.

Is there a workable 'third way'? Is there some mechanism whereby D&M could use this value to gift a stake in the club to something like the supporters' trust - some kind of body that keeps Attanasio honest and keeps some aspect of the club in community hands.

As will already have become obvious, I have no expertise in the financial side of this, but just wondered whether anyone has outlined a way out of this that doesn't just involve D&M (now) or MA (in the future) just making a pile of cash. (Obviously D&M would be more than entitled to said cash, it's just not a great look...)

Would be very interested in @PurpleCanary, @GMF and others' informed views on this.

There’s always the possibility that MA, having picked up MF’s shares for a modest price, does similar with D&M’s in due course. That’s their personal choice, of course, but does have wider implications when the 30% threshold is reached.

However, the way to “clear the hurdle” would be for the allotment of the new shares to be at what’s considered the full market price, thereby making that particular transaction the relevant one when having to make the offer to all other minority shareholders.

Pure speculation, on my part, of course.

[GMF 745]

14 minutes ago, Parma Ham's gone mouldy said:

Til, this is almost certainly the most important issue faced by Norwich City Football Club in quarter of a century.

It will quite likely have a fundamental influence on the direction of travel - and likelihood of increased success or otherwise - of the club and team for perhaps the next decade.

If there was ever a time for interested minds to kick around possibilities, implications and possible outcomes, then this is surely it?

Parma 

Well said @Parma Ham's gone mouldy

[Mello Yello 2,295]

I can see and hear it now....The Carra rendition of OTBC being replaced by the Star Spangled Banner before kick-off....Yes Soiree!....

[Robert N. LiM 4,362]

49 minutes ago, Parma Ham's gone mouldy said:

Til, this is almost certainly the most important issue faced by Norwich City Football Club in quarter of a century.

It will quite likely have a fundamental influence on the direction of travel - and likelihood of increased success or otherwise - of the club and team for perhaps the next decade.

If there was ever a time for interested minds to kick around possibilities, implications and possible outcomes, then this is surely it?

Parma 

Very well said. Personally I have found this thread very informative and thought-provoking. This and the 'State of the Nation' thread are this board at its best. Thoughtful and interesting comments, helped along by by people with genuine expertise. Obviously it's been fashionable in recent years to declare 'we've had enough of experts' and to denigrate thoughtfulness or intellectualism, but I'd mildly suggest that didn't get us very far.

[Robert N. LiM 4,362]

40 minutes ago, GMF said:

There’s always the possibility that MA, having picked up MF’s shares for a modest price, does similar with D&M’s in due course. That’s their personal choice, of course, but does have wider implications when the 30% threshold is reached.

Very much appreciate the reply.

But if I'm understanding you right, that would mean that MA is getting the club at a knock-down sum, which doesn't seem quite right. He seems a decent guy, but he's also a businessman - and the possibility of him making a massive profit down the line out of Delia and Michael's putative generosity is a very real one, no?

But the only alternative I can see is D&M making that massive profit now, which personally I would consider fair enough given their years of service to the club, but it would be very unpopular with their detractors and obviously that's also money that's not benefiting the club in any way.

Is that a fair summary - and is there another way forward, one that allows the club to benefit from this 'gain' that Parma is talking about.

[kick it off 1,952]

14 hours ago, yellowrider120 said:

That won't happen as from what we hear the boy Attanasio thinks Webber is the 'main man'. He will want some 'stability' in terms of club management personnel in his first season at least while he works out just what a mess NCFC is in. Then, when he has begun to understand the issues of running an English professional football club a little better, he may 'come to an agreement' with Webber to dispense with said person's services but I can't see Webber going anywhere for another 12 months at least. Ditto Z Ward / Webber.   

I have it on fairly good authority that Webber was always leaving this summer and that has been the plan for 18months. I dont want to say that's 100% certain, and plans can obviously change, but that's what I was told 6 or 7 months ago by one of my best mates who knows a family member of someone in the club's hierarchy very well. That source has always provided reliable info in the past so I 100% believe it was true at the time it was said, but whether anything has changed, I dont know

[TIL 1010 4,748]

1 hour ago, Parma Ham's gone mouldy said:

Til, this is almost certainly the most important issue faced by Norwich City Football Club in quarter of a century.

It will quite likely have a fundamental influence on the direction of travel - and likelihood of increased success or otherwise - of the club and team for perhaps the next decade.

If there was ever a time for interested minds to kick around possibilities, implications and possible outcomes, then this is surely it?

Parma 

There are only two posters really worth reading the thoughts of on this thread Parma and you are one of them.

[nutty nigel 7,537]

So all the other posters who have shared their limited thoughts on this thread can now go home and boil their heads...

Edited April 16, 2023 by nutty nigel
😂😂🙃🎣🎏

[GMF 745]

1 hour ago, Robert N. LiM said:

Very much appreciate the reply.

But if I'm understanding you right, that would mean that MA is getting the club at a knock-down sum, which doesn't seem quite right. He seems a decent guy, but he's also a businessman - and the possibility of him making a massive profit down the line out of Delia and Michael's putative generosity is a very real one, no?

But the only alternative I can see is D&M making that massive profit now, which personally I would consider fair enough given their years of service to the club, but it would be very unpopular with their detractors and obviously that's also money that's not benefiting the club in any way.

Is that a fair summary - and is there another way forward, one that allows the club to benefit from this 'gain' that Parma is talking about.

It’s a fair question. All directors have a fiduciary duty to all shareholders, which, potentially gives D&M a conflict of interests. However, if the allotment of new shares is next in line, before D&M sell out, that removes a potential hurdle.

And, yes, if they decide to sell at less than market value, there’s potential upside for the purchaser, albeit they have a record as long term investors. 

[MrBunce 245]

3 hours ago, PurpleCanary said:

Robert, I should think there is a third way, given some creative thinking, but it's beyond any area of expertise I might have.

There are plenty of ways to do it. Not wishing to attract the ire of Til too much I can outline three possibilities. 

First, Smith & Jones could agree a deal to sell their whole stake at a lower price on the condition that Mr Attanasio commits to invest that amount, or more, into the club over a defined period. So say S&J sell at price which is £20m less than 'market value', Mr Attanasio agrees to put in £10m of extra equity (or non-repayable loans) in year 1 and then another £10m in year 2. This is similar to what Abramovich and Boehly agreed to with Chelsea where Boehly has committed to investing a certain amount of money to improve the club post deal. 

Second, S&J can agree to some of the money they receive for the shares being paid at a later date and potentially  dependent on certain conditions being met. This is called 'deferred consideration'. A common form of this is where the consideration is dependent on future profits and some kind of profit share is agreed (often called an 'earn out'). For example, some of the money S&J would receive could be tied to the club gaining promotion back to the Premier league within a certain number of years. 

Third, S&J might instead just sell some of their shares at 'market value' but keep a minority stake in the club. That might be at the 25% level conferring them some rights or via an agreement which allows them to keep a say in the running of the club. This has become quite a popular way to keep experienced and 'popular' owners at clubs but allowing for new investment. Perhaps the most prominent example is at Crystal Palace where the original 'saviours' of the club still own a minority stake and, in the case of Steve Parish, a significant say in  operations in his role as Chairman. 

All that said, 'option 3' (or some derivative of it) would seem to me to be the most likely scenario due to its simplicity and possibility of keeping many masters happy. I'm sure the lawyers are all working very hard to come up with an elegant solution. 

Regardless, it's clear to me that the allotment of shares is more complex than a simple deal which would have been completed by now. I also imagine that the beginning of the baseball season plus the mini-banking crisis has likely occupied Mr Attanasio somewhat. That, plus the current uncertain end to the season, suggests to me that we won't hear anything more until at least after the season ends. 

I echo @Parma Ham's gone mouldy very wise comment that this is likely the most important situation at the club. Arguably since the share rights issue some 20 years ago. That is instructive because, in my opinion, the club got that right. You need only look at the very many 'sleeping giants' that are still struggling to recover from the ITV digital fiasco after all this time (maybe that club down the road could said to have been in one of the longest comas of all). 

The long and short is that football is a game of money and the amount and quality of that money is arguably the single largest determinant of the fortunes of the football club. So getting it right is paramount. 

[essex canary 496]

Well done folks! Delighted to note with one notable exception that the spirit of the 'Thursday Funny' has been fully taken on board.

If we sell our house it is clearly worth what someone will pay for it. If a neighbour sells their identical house it should nevertheless give a clue. Apparently West Brom sold not so long ago for nearly £200 million. That seems ridiculously high.

Arguably we could be worth £100 million so £165 per share. If Foulger got that it ought to be the settlement rate. S&J could always come to a different arrangement. Such a settlement for minorities would be comparable to Burnley's settlement. Then again at this juncture our financial performance falls short of theirs so perhaps less. Then again the principles of the Crouch Report ought to see settlement on the same principles as Burnley. @GMF suggestion of alignment with the new issue capital seems the right one.

[BigFish 1,987]

3 hours ago, TIL 1010 said:

There are only two posters really worth reading the thoughts of on this thread Parma and you are one of them.

Is the other Essex, Til?

[Indy 3,300]

2 hours ago, GMF said:

It’s a fair question. All directors have a fiduciary duty to all shareholders, which, potentially gives D&M a conflict of interests. However, if the allotment of new shares is next in line, before D&M sell out, that removes a potential hurdle.

And, yes, if they decide to sell at less than market value, there’s potential upside for the purchaser, albeit they have a record as long term investors. 

What is the market value of this club and how can you set it given the financial challenges ahead? Surely the market value per share is fluid this summer a lot less without promotion? Just asking.

[Mello Yello 2,295]

Well as no one like us inferior average joe supporting simpletons would ever appear on BBC2 Universally Challenged or Mastermind. Then we thicko lot will just have to tolerate being preached to by the Punk um resident pseudo interlektools who whilst giving their opinion and theories, they actually also don't really know what's really occurring in the corridors of dour at Carra....

So unfortunately we onlooking numpties will just have to work around the clash of the clever clogs surmising wiv their educated egoism's an' how they can't help noticing how they are incredibly smarter than the less than average intelligence punk um poster.....

When actually all us average joe majority type of posters wanna do is moan, whinge, grunt, f@rt wheeze an' belch an' talk about how carp we are/were, team selection etc an proper footy stuff like sack Webbo, the board and anyone else that we see fit.....and that's including the norm to personally snipe and point score against those of different political persuasion, how they should support the club or that drum's feckin tinpot....or maybe carry on with their long continuing disagreements and personal vendettas that occasionally resurface on here.....well not occasionally, but all of the time.....  

Us dunces and failed 11 plus peasants will just have to keep googling them big wurdz the punk um educated use and to see what they mean as we continue to despise the resident academically astute and creamy clever clogs.....Who lets face it, in reality these billy no mate types really only use this forum to strut their air of superiority smuggy stuff as they've actually got nowhere else to go....and if they went onto a forum that did have real academic folk interacting? Then our punk um pretentious pseudo interlektools would be out of their depth on there like what the type of I am on here.....ain't I?

Coz anyway if them pseudo's on here were in the boozer after the game and spoke to me an' me mates like they pout an' pontificate on here...Me an' the lads would all say in unison 'flug orft yer borin' tiresome arrogant saddo tweed jacket an' pressed slack wearin' geeks!'... An' then we'd guffaw really hard (in unison) into their cabbage patch kid faces - and then we'd turn our backs on 'em and carry on with proper bloke talk an swiggin' proper 6% ale and eatin' nobby's nuts (that's not a euphemism by the way)  and certainly not imbibing on overly expensive hip dude 'yah yah absolutely' craft wee wee beer or bleedin' babycham with a splash o' blackcurrant....or just a non-alcoholic J2O bottle thingy coz they're out in the Porsche....If it's not proppa ale then it's all tasteless flamin' pee water an' devil's tiddle.... 

Anyway if these Punk um resident pretentious pseudo interlektools were the high flyin' big salary earning living in big houses pubic skool edumikated academics that they purport to be? I'm pretty sure that they wouldn't find valuable time to come on a two bit footy forum to flex their air of intellectual smug superiority and arrogance. I mean the real clever old feckers would have an allotment or a hobby like crown green bowls, maybe a thrice weekly quick 9 holes of "whoosh foogit where's it gorn?" Or twice or thrice a year on a cruise which is a floating petri dish of "what's gonna make me puke or sheet meself next darlin'?"...Plus the younger affluent academics would be elsewhere with the rest of the Lord Snooty clever clogs buying cottages in North Norfolk to uber 'em or use them as weekend and holiday retreats or flittin' orft to Dubai....or sitting atop an exclusive trendy expensive terrace bar with a local Deb's delight in tow....whilst I'm swiggin' in Spoons sittin' with....well, with whatever's available and has a nice personality....or when my 6 pint beer goggles are activated.....

Right spleen vented, gotta go....crack on and continue to astound us with your cleverness....you supposed affluent an' smuggy smarty pants pink um pretendy porsche drivin' patronising pretentious posters....Really gotta go, as I live in a 13th floor flat and with some scissors, I've now got to go and trim my window box of watercress....(that's not a euphemism by the way)....

Anyway.....what was this topic about again?....

    

[PurpleCanary 5,562]

1 hour ago, MrBunce said:

I echo @Parma Ham's gone mouldy very wise comment that this is likely the most important situation at the club. Arguably since the share rights issue some 20 years ago. That is instructive because, in my opinion, the club got that right. You need only look at the very many 'sleeping giants' that are still struggling to recover from the ITV digital fiasco after all this time (maybe that club down the road could said to have been in one of the longest comas of all). 

The long and short is that football is a game of money and the amount and quality of that money is arguably the single largest determinant of the fortunes of the football club. So getting it right is paramount. 

MrBunce, I agree about the club's reaction to the ITV Digital farce but I would argue this is an even more critical juncture. This in effect is the owners bowing to the financial realities not just of the Premier League but the Championship as well. An acceptance (I know some would argue belated) that their morally virtuous  self-funded model could no longer work.

This takeover, if that is what it is, must indeed be got right, although in the "too much and never enough" financial world of the EPL no deal Norwich City could pull off would ever allow it to compete on equal terms with the mega-funded elite.

[Mello Yello 2,295]

3 hours ago, TIL 1010 said:

There are only two posters really worth reading the thoughts of on this thread Parma and you are one of them.

Am I the other one?.....

[Midlands Yellow 3,986]

3 hours ago, TIL 1010 said:

There are only two posters really worth reading the thoughts of on this thread Parma and you are one of them.

Parma and Pete? 

[essex canary 496]

19 minutes ago, Mello Yello said:

Am I the other one?.....

Perhaps not on this thread but definitely worthy of top prize on many others.

 

 

 

[A Load of Squit 5,167]

58 minutes ago, BigFish said:

Is the other Essex, Til?

If it is it means that Til's thoughts on this thread aren't worth reading so his original assumption is wrong and what I've typed doesn't matter as it isn't worth reading.

[MrBunce 245]

40 minutes ago, PurpleCanary said:

MrBunce, I agree about the club's reaction to the ITV Digital farce but I would argue this is an even more critical juncture. This in effect is the owners bowing to the financial realities not just of the Premier League but the Championship as well. An acceptance (I know some would argue belated) that their morally virtuous  self-funded model could no longer work.

This takeover, if that is what it is, must indeed be got right, although in the "too much and never enough" financial world of the EPL no deal Norwich City could pull off would ever allow it to compete on equal terms with the mega-funded elite.

Completely agree Purple. You can see it in the numbers. Championship clubs lost a collective £370m last season. WBA were the only club to make a substantial profit, £5.2m of which £5m was write off of owner loans (and FWIW WBA is a basket case at the moment). 

[GMF 745]

1 hour ago, Indy said:

What is the market value of this club and how can you set it given the financial challenges ahead? Surely the market value per share is fluid this summer a lot less without promotion? Just asking.

This is the $64,000 question, especially as they are unlisted securities, there’s relatively few transactions for consideration each year (most are between family and friends upon the passing of the existing shareholder) and effectively worth whatever someone is willing to pay for them.

Does the share price change following promotion, or relegation, or loss of parachute payments? In theory, yes, but there’s little evidence to support that, primarily because there’s so few transactions each year.

That said, I sense that MA is here for the long term, therefore he’s unlikely to be concerned about the short term fluctuations, unless, of course, the asset is more distressed than we imagined.

Sorry if this doesn’t really answer your question @Indy

[Parma Ham's gone mouldy 2,220]

2 hours ago, MrBunce said:

There are plenty of ways to do it. Not wishing to attract the ire of Til too much I can outline three possibilities. 

First, Smith & Jones could agree a deal to sell their whole stake at a lower price on the condition that Mr Attanasio commits to invest that amount, or more, into the club over a defined period. So say S&J sell at price which is £20m less than 'market value', Mr Attanasio agrees to put in £10m of extra equity (or non-repayable loans) in year 1 and then another £10m in year 2. This is similar to what Abramovich and Boehly agreed to with Chelsea where Boehly has committed to investing a certain amount of money to improve the club post deal. 

Second, S&J can agree to some of the money they receive for the shares being paid at a later date and potentially  dependent on certain conditions being met. This is called 'deferred consideration'. A common form of this is where the consideration is dependent on future profits and some kind of profit share is agreed (often called an 'earn out'). For example, some of the money S&J would receive could be tied to the club gaining promotion back to the Premier league within a certain number of years. 

Third, S&J might instead just sell some of their shares at 'market value' but keep a minority stake in the club. That might be at the 25% level conferring them some rights or via an agreement which allows them to keep a say in the running of the club. This has become quite a popular way to keep experienced and 'popular' owners at clubs but allowing for new investment. Perhaps the most prominent example is at Crystal Palace where the original 'saviours' of the club still own a minority stake and, in the case of Steve Parish, a significant say in  operations in his role as Chairman. 

All that said, 'option 3' (or some derivative of it) would seem to me to be the most likely scenario due to its simplicity and possibility of keeping many masters happy. I'm sure the lawyers are all working very hard to come up with an elegant solution. 

Regardless, it's clear to me that the allotment of shares is more complex than a simple deal which would have been completed by now. I also imagine that the beginning of the baseball season plus the mini-banking crisis has likely occupied Mr Attanasio somewhat. That, plus the current uncertain end to the season, suggests to me that we won't hear anything more until at least after the season ends. 

I echo @Parma Ham's gone mouldy very wise comment that this is likely the most important situation at the club. Arguably since the share rights issue some 20 years ago. That is instructive because, in my opinion, the club got that right. You need only look at the very many 'sleeping giants' that are still struggling to recover from the ITV digital fiasco after all this time (maybe that club down the road could said to have been in one of the longest comas of all). 

The long and short is that football is a game of money and the amount and quality of that money is arguably the single largest determinant of the fortunes of the football club. So getting it right is paramount. 

Indeed @MrBunce…

…and once deferred consideration type deals are engaged - with conditional, what if and trigger point clauses - then lawyers must inevitably be employed and collaborative intentions can easily give way to partisan professionalism. 

Keeping a lid on the process is a job and a skill all of its own. 

Parma 

[GMF 745]

1 minute ago, Parma Ham's gone mouldy said:

Indeed @MrBunce…

…and once deferred consideration type deals are engaged - with conditional, what if and trigger point clauses - then lawyers must inevitably be employed and collaborative intentions can easily give way to partisan professionalism. 

Keeping a lid on the process is a job and a skill all of its own. 

Parma 

@MrBunce @PurpleCanary and @Parma Ham's gone mouldy any opinions on how deferred consideration or commitments to inject further funding into the Club would have to be reflected in any required offers to remaining minority shareholders, as per the Takeover Code? Nuanced stuff, obviously but relevant nevertheless to the remaining 6,800 plus minority shareholders.

[Robert N. LiM 4,362]

3 hours ago, MrBunce said:

Not wishing to attract the ire of Til too much

Who knows, maybe you're the other poster on this thread he considers of value. If so, in your faces, @GMF and @PurpleCanary

 

[Robert N. LiM 4,362]

3 hours ago, MrBunce said:

There are plenty of ways to do it.

Thanks so much for such a full and interesting reply. Much appreciated

[Parma Ham's gone mouldy 2,220]

On 10/12/2022 at 10:57, Parma Ham's gone mouldy said:

Indeed. I wonder if Delia - who is thoroughly decent - and quite possibly including Michael Foulger (as the reverse stalking horse), have created a scenario whereby they perhaps don’t get top price, but smaller shareholders do?

nota bene: MF shares @ c £30, Delia’s @ maybe similar, smaller shareholders @ c  £100 as per (vaguely) C preference.

This would be akin to the halfway house scenario I painted earlier, with Delia and MF getting a return, but not an exaggerated one (leaving something clearly in the pot for Attanasio and somewhat avoiding accusations of profiteering and/or previously under-leveraging) with many small shareholders making quite a dramatic % equity gain on their shares acting as a ‘soft landing’ for the new regime?

Parma 

What says you @GMF @PurpleCanary @essex canary @shefcanary @BigFish ?

@nutty nigel @Petriix @king canary

@GMF…I posited this earlier in the thread. It was intended as indicative of a potential model. 

It was clear to me that - once outside professionals got involved - conditionality and trigger clauses would then come  into play. 

It was further likely to me that this would be to the ‘advantage’ of Delia and Michael - in that the unrealised equity gain elephant in the room would be unmasked - though it was therefore almost certain that any smooth, friendly, private heads-of-agreement ideas between Delia-Michael and Attanasio would come into contact with real world corporate finance and legal intervention. 

Frankly I am glad about this. I feared - perhaps patronisingly I accept - that Delia vs Attanasio was not a fair fight. 

Parma 

Edited April 16, 2023 by Parma Ham's gone mouldy

[Graham Paddons Beard 2,431]

Question. 
 

Am I right- I’m looking for guidance . 
 

@PurpleCanary @GMF @MrBunce@Parma Ham's gone mouldy @shefcanary

My view has been that MA would not have embarked on this without a high degree of certainty that he will secure control of the club. 
Foulger sells his shares , but that doesn’t give MA control. 
The new shares are released and MA will buy them. The money goes to the club . 
These shares dilute the overall shareholding . So D and M don’t own 51% anymore ? But MA still doesn’t control the club. 
So MA needs to buy some shares from M and D ? 
The whole initiative is supported by The Club - evidenced by the Post Match Meeting in the pitch after the Spurs game . 
Is this correct so far? 

Edited April 16, 2023 by Graham Paddons Beard