Will we stay up?

[Crafty Canary 496]

Looking at our remaining fixtures I see us ending up with 37 points. I came to this total as follows:

Wins: Aston villa (a), Newcastle (h), Sunderland (h)

Draws: West ham (h), Swansea (a), West Brom (a), Palace (a), Watford (h)

Defeats: Leicester (a), Chelsea (h), Man City (h), Arsenal (a), Man Utd (h), Everton (a)

To stay up we have to hope that two of Sunderland, Newcastle and Swansea do worse than us over the remaining 14 games. I believe Sunderland will go down this time but have real concerns that the other two will pick up the necessary points. Bournemouth and those just above them are now starting to look safe. Bournemouth only need 4 wins from their last 14 to reach the 40 points mark.

[Row D Seat 7 0]

I think it''s going to be a struggle. Currently think it''ll be Villa, Sunderland and us. This changes daily.

[Jim Smith 2,322]

Its obviously possible and one good run of four of five games can change things hugely but right now I can''t see us staying up. We are just not playing very well at all, i think Newcastle are showing enough signs of improvement to get out of it and I am struggling to see who else we are going ti finish against. Clearly the head to heads against the other relegation candidates are going to be crucial.

[Hoola Han Solo 448]

Just about. We desperately need a win and decent performance on Saturday to fire a bit of confidence into both players and fans.

[Haggerdoo 6]

Not unless we drop Bassonkey and get the defence sorted

[nutty nigel 7,537]

[quote user="Crafty Canary"]Looking at our remaining fixtures I see us ending up with 37 points. I came to this total as follows:

Wins: Aston villa (a), Newcastle (h), Sunderland (h)

Draws: West ham (h), Swansea (a), West Brom (a), Palace (a), Watford (h)

Defeats: Leicester (a), Chelsea (h), Man City (h), Arsenal (a), Man Utd (h), Everton (a)

To stay up we have to hope that two of Sunderland, Newcastle and Swansea do worse than us over the remaining 14 games. I believe Sunderland will go down this time but have real concerns that the other two will pick up the necessary points. Bournemouth and those just above them are now starting to look safe. Bournemouth only need 4 wins from their last 14 to reach the 40 points mark.[/quote]

 

I remain confident that we can stay up. There''s nothing to be gained by not being so. I''m also confident that we''ll drop points from within your totals and gain points from the other games. Realistically I don''t believe anybody expected us to be looking safe or cut adrift at this point.

 

 

[Feedthewolf 4,846]

[quote user="nutty nigel"]

[quote user="Crafty Canary"]Looking at our remaining fixtures I see us ending up with 37 points. I came to this total as follows:

Wins: Aston villa (a), Newcastle (h), Sunderland (h)

Draws: West ham (h), Swansea (a), West Brom (a), Palace (a), Watford (h)

Defeats: Leicester (a), Chelsea (h), Man City (h), Arsenal (a), Man Utd (h), Everton (a)

To stay up we have to hope that two of Sunderland, Newcastle and Swansea do worse than us over the remaining 14 games. I believe Sunderland will go down this time but have real concerns that the other two will pick up the necessary points. Bournemouth and those just above them are now starting to look safe. Bournemouth only need 4 wins from their last 14 to reach the 40 points mark.[/quote]

 

I remain confident that we can stay up. There''s nothing to be gained by not being so. I''m also confident that we''ll drop points from within your totals and gain points from the other games. Realistically I don''t believe anybody expected us to be looking safe or cut adrift at this point.[/quote]

Agree with this assessment, Eddie – although it will be difficult to remain optimistic should we lose on Saturday. The differential in quality between Villa and Liverpool/Spurs is huge, so you''d expect us to put in a stirring performance. However, we thought that might happen at Newcastle earlier in the season – in the unthinkable event that we do the same against Villa, we''ll be nailed on for the drop.

[norfolkngood 1,087]

There is a little gap opening up at bottom we need a win badly

if Newcastle win toght we are in the bottom 3 bornemouth are having a few good results and opened a health gap

football is a funny thing as we saw over Christmas can neil do that again ? if so we will be safe

if not and we continue to lose by 3 goals and lose at villa

I don''t think anyone could complain if he got the chop with 10 to 8 games to go

why not ? we have to do everything we can to stay in this league this year every roll of the dice we can if that means getting in someone then so be it

but then you look a villa new manager has done nothing

then Swansea look better last game or so

no point going for a neil adams for the last 8 games or a underperforming alex neil

we have to DO something this time before its to late

I hope like many AN can sort this out and stays for many years but if he can not find someone that can

[ricardo 7,395]

I hope to be pleasantly surprised but it''s looking more and more unlikely.

The goals against column is shouting out relegation. Playing open football against better teams can only end one way. If you want to survive you have to be like West Brom or Swansea and concede fewer goals. Unattractive to watch but they will be picking up the big money next season while we probably won''t.

If we concede another 20 goals in the remaining 14 games we will certainly be relegated.

[Highland Canary 76]

We''ll finish 19th with Villa and Swansea as company.

[Ivan Easter 0]

If we keep playing like this we will be relegated, we need to play every half good not just second half games, and not throw away leads like we did playing Liverpool. Not optimistic at the moment.

[nutty nigel 7,537]

[quote user="Feedthewolf"][quote user="nutty nigel"]

[quote user="Crafty Canary"]Looking at our remaining fixtures I see us ending up with 37 points. I came to this total as follows:

Wins: Aston villa (a), Newcastle (h), Sunderland (h)

Draws: West ham (h), Swansea (a), West Brom (a), Palace (a), Watford (h)

Defeats: Leicester (a), Chelsea (h), Man City (h), Arsenal (a), Man Utd (h), Everton (a)

To stay up we have to hope that two of Sunderland, Newcastle and Swansea do worse than us over the remaining 14 games. I believe Sunderland will go down this time but have real concerns that the other two will pick up the necessary points. Bournemouth and those just above them are now starting to look safe. Bournemouth only need 4 wins from their last 14 to reach the 40 points mark.[/quote]

 

I remain confident that we can stay up. There''s nothing to be gained by not being so. I''m also confident that we''ll drop points from within your totals and gain points from the other games. Realistically I don''t believe anybody expected us to be looking safe or cut adrift at this point.[/quote]

Agree with this assessment, Eddie – although it will be difficult to remain optimistic should we lose on Saturday. The differential in quality between Villa and Liverpool/Spurs is huge, so you''d expect us to put in a stirring performance. However, we thought that might happen at Newcastle earlier in the season – in the unthinkable event that we do the same against Villa, we''ll be nailed on for the drop.

[/quote]

 

That''s the fragility of our situation buddy. It''s only human nature to think that way but hopefully the team don''t feel that way too. We''d like them to believe in themselves unless there aren''t enough points to play for. Or until the last minute of a game we are losing. To give up with more than a dozen games left would be akin to leaving a game we are losing on 60 mins. But then some people gave up in August...

 

 

[Essjayess 307]

Of course mathematically we could yet comfortably stay up, but reality says on current form, and of recent history, we will be relegated and by quite a margin to. By quite a margin because i said quite awhile back this season  teams in the lower half of the league are picking up way more points than recent seasons, this probably due to the insane fear of missing out on next seasons  sky bonanza. Couple that with Citys complete collapse in 2nd half of season, which is now well underway, and im more confident than ever  my prediction of 33 points i made at season beginning will suffice.I am confident whoever finish 17th this season will hit the 40 points total, which will be  quite a way above our total. Accuse me of giving up, doesnt matter what i think, its the players on the pitch who can change it and make me look so so wrong. Alex has a mountain to climb, but thats his job, im just a fan. Nearly all Villa fans have written this season off, they just want the next 3 months to be fast forwarded so they can renew in the Champs. I guess rightly most City fans do not think in those terms, still having some hope we can stay up. Im not one of those, but unlike Villa fans, im positive about the future, even if City go down. But Alex has a heap of short and long term work ahead, he will really have to earn his whack.

[lappinitup 629]

[quote user="Crafty Canary"]Wins: Aston villa (a), Newcastle (h), Sunderland (h)

Draws: West ham (h), Swansea (a), West Brom (a), Palace (a), Watford (h)

Defeats: Leicester (a), Chelsea (h), Man City (h), Arsenal (a), Man Utd (h), Everton (a)[/quote]Hmm! [^o)]Wins against the bottom three........Draws against mid-table teams.......Defeats against the top sides.......Whatever complicated formula did you use to work that out Professor? [:^)] I wish I was clever. [:(] [:(] [:(]

[Helsinki canary 242]

Fail to win at villa and I think it will be curtains, if we win we still might scrape home

[Dean Coneys boots 1,400]

Relegated. Which is gutting because I dont think it will be as easy to bounce back this time round for reasons of personnel etc...

Despite 24million spent in Jan, the buck still stops with the board. Quite simply the summer disaster of a window sunk us before a ball was kicked.

In this division there is zero chance of a team whose defend was already relegated and who struggled in the champ (firepower saved us) staying up if they wait half a season to address the issues.

Also- despite the January spend- we only replaced ONE cb when all are clearly not up to this standard.

Been saying it for ages, and often slated for it, but we have not made the most of promotion. Too late in opening the purse strings + a rookie manager leads to where we are now.

19th above Villa but beneath all the others.

[It's Character Forming 1,161]

At the start of the season I hoped/expected that Watford and Bournemouth would be in the relegation mix now.  As it is, Watford have managed to get the points, like we did in our first season up under Lambert, so they''re now virtually safe, and Bournemouth are well placed too (although not out of it yet).

 

So we''re left with us and a small bunch of more established Prem teams competing to avoid the 2 relegation places above Villa.  It''s like the joke about being chased by the bear - it doesn''t matter whether you''re quicker than the bear, just whether you''re quicker than the other guy.  Or in this case, better than at least 2 other teams.

If Newcastle fail to win tonight - and you wouldn''t rule them out - then at least we will have done this after 24 games, so we''d "just" need to do no worse than Sunderland and Newcastle for the last 14 games. 

 

The margins in the Prem are so fine.  A run of 3 wins for any team catapults them up the table - 3 wins on the spin for Villa and they''d be right back in it.

 

For me it''s crunch time.  We had a good run before Christmas which put us within reach of safety, now we''ve had a bad run and are right back in the dogfight.  The next few games, starting Saturday, are crucial.  Can AN turn it around - how far has the bad run come from a virus sweeping through Colney ?  My bet is yes, but it''s pretty uncomfortable right now !

[Crafty Canary 496]

Sarcastic, nothing sensible to say post by Lappinitup shocker!!

[Canaries north 151]

I would say Everton are mid table and Chelsea are one of the bottom sides at the moment. Sorry to be pedantic.

[Salopian 1]

I have to say that it''s looking less and less likely, especially with surrounding teams having bought well recently.

Villa seem doomed, and unless AN can marshal the defence rather better I see us going down with Villa.

[Mello Yello 2,296]

On our current dreadful goal conceding form - we are uncontrollably spiralling downwards - and there''s insufficient altitude to recover from a gravity pulling collision with terra firma.....Lose at Villa......? Well, having just renewed my season ticket before the first deadline......I unfortunately may be watching four extra lower league home games next season......

But, Bamford has yet to appear and, he just may be our saviour alongside Nay Say Die!

[Guest]

Right now I still think we can do it. Just.Admittedly, should we fail to beat Villa it''s hard to see where the required points are going to come from to reach the 38/40 point mark.  What was worrying about the way the team began the match last night was the lack of energy and commitment from the first whistle.  Suggests a malaise is setting into the mindset of the players.  We desperately need to get the players thinking positive again.

[Crafty Canary 496]

I have had a look at the remaining fixtures for Newcastle, Sunderland and Swansea and they show that we could finish above all of them.

Newcastle

wins: West Brom (h), Swansea (h), Palace (h), Villa (h)

draws: Bournemouth (h), Sunderland (h), Southampton (a)

defeats: Everton (a), Chelsea (a), Man City (a), Stoke (a), Leicester (a), Norwich (a), Liverpool (a), Spurs (h)

prediction: 36 points.

Sunderland

wins: Palace (h), West Brom (h)

draws: West Ham (a), Southampton (a), Everton (h), Newcastle (a)

defeats: Liverpool (a), Man Utd (h), Leicester (h), Norwich (a), Arsenal (h), Stoke (a), Chelsea (h), Watford (a)

prediction: 29 points

Swansea

wins: Villa (h)

draws: Palace (h), Southampton (h), Norwich (h), Bournemouth (a), Stoke (a), Chelsea (h), Liverpool (h)

defeats: Spurs (a), Arsenal (a), Newcastle (a), Leicester (a), West Ham (a), Man City (h)

Swansea is the unlikeliest prediction as the above assumes only one more win. A second win instead of a draw would put them above us on 38 points. Sunderland really do have a tough fixture list so the home game against Newcastle could be the season turner for us.

Naturally the above has a huge amount of ''wet finger in the air'' to it but shows that all hope is not lost.

prediction: 36 points

[Mr Jenkins 0]

No idea if we will stay up, we are in a bit of a hole at the moment but it''s not beyond the realms of possibility that we will have another good little run and move a few places up the table. So for me it''s a yes.

[PurpleCanary 5,562]

[quote user="Crafty Canary"]I have had a look at the remaining fixtures for Newcastle, Sunderland and Swansea and they show that we could finish above all of them.

Newcastle

wins: West Brom (h), Swansea (h), Palace (h), Villa (h)

draws: Bournemouth (h), Sunderland (h), Southampton (a)

defeats: Everton (a), Chelsea (a), Man City (a), Stoke (a), Leicester (a), Norwich (a), Liverpool (a), Spurs (h)

prediction: 36 points.

Sunderland

wins: Palace (h), West Brom (h)

draws: West Ham (a), Southampton (a), Everton (h), Newcastle (a)

defeats: Liverpool (a), Man Utd (h), Leicester (h), Norwich (a), Arsenal (h), Stoke (a), Chelsea (h), Watford (a)

prediction: 29 points

Swansea

wins: Villa (h)

draws: Palace (h), Southampton (h), Norwich (h), Bournemouth (a), Stoke (a), Chelsea (h), Liverpool (h)

defeats: Spurs (a), Arsenal (a), Newcastle (a), Leicester (a), West Ham (a), Man City (h)

Swansea is the unlikeliest prediction as the above assumes only one more win. A second win instead of a draw would put them above us on 38 points. Sunderland really do have a tough fixture list so the home game against Newcastle could be the season turner for us.

Naturally the above has a huge amount of ''wet finger in the air'' to it but shows that all hope is not lost.

prediction: 36 points[/quote]It could easily come down to our results against Sunderland and Swansea. One poster was making the point (I didn''t think it had that much validity but even so) that two of our new signings would take too long to bed in, having not played in the Premier League before. If that is true for us it is more so for Sunderland, with all their four new outfielders being new to English football. And at least as true for Swwnsea - whose signings were the problematic Fer (is he the man for a relegation fight?) and an Italian striker.

[Cantiaci Canary 557]

Most likely we''ll go down I''m afraid ...

1. We should''ve been as shrewd in the summer window as we have been in January and used this recent window for refinements rather than surgery.

2. We are suffering from the fellow promoted sides out performing us and Leicester''s revolution. I had hoped we could finish above all 3. Only Villa look definitely weaker.

Still, I doubt any other club offers lower wages than us and we aren''t bankrolled by a billionaire. Despite having an excellent manager, team spirit and a few eye catching players we are counting on bigger clubs to remain as dysfunctional as they have been to date to survive.

We are very similar to Burnley last season in this respect.

[Ginja 26]

So how''s the feeling from those who were confident we''d stay up? still confident after the complete shambles today?

[First Wazzock 902]

No

[? 0]

Not a chance!

[Tetteys Jig 830]

Was on the fence until today. The manner of that defeat and everything, we''re down.