Convinced of our survival this season?

[Row D Seat 7 0]

We lie 8th now as Christmas approaches.

Just wondering who is convinced of our survival as we sit 15 points away from the supposed magic 40 point mark.

I am still unsure. Something would have to go badly wrong for us to be relegated, but I think quite a bit hinges on our additions in January. We don''t need a squad overhaul, just some smart additions to the squad whilst moving some players out too.

I know this may seem like a negative post, but I just can''t shake that feeling of being still a little edgy that we remain in a relegation fight and I''m conscious that we don''t want to think the job is done before it is.

What do you think?

[Move Klose 303]

If you looked at us as a neutral you would say we will stay up. A few weeks ago when I looked at table I said likes of west ham and west brom are already safe. So I think realisticly we are safe its just you prepare yourself for worst. QPR & Reading will go, plus 1 more maybe Wigan.

[Row D Seat 7 0]

That''s what I try to do too. Look at us as a neutral.

I think Reading will go. I also get feeling a surprise team will drop too. Not sure who. Think QPR will stay up and yeah I think this is Wigan''s time to go now.

[ZLF 274]

I agreethat we should be safe and its very much ours to lose - we just need to carry on doing.

 

 

 but until we get to 40 I will remain nervous - that ''94 season is still a haunting memory.

 

 

[Yobocop 1,105]

Wigan, Reading and Southampton for me (unfortunately in the case of the latter two)

We''re of course not out of the woods just yet, 4 more wins should do it but who knows what''s going to happen between now and May?

The best thing we can do is what we''ve done all season and take one game at a time

[a1canary 0]

[quote user="ZippersLeftFoot"]

 

 but until we get to 40 I will remain nervous - that ''94 season is still a haunting memory.

[/quote]

 

I''ve mentioned this on another thread about 94/5. Never mind the team who is bottom at Christmas being relegated. We are the only team to achieve that from being in the top 6 at christmas. Just because of that, i wasn''t comfortable until February last year and it''ll be no different this year. Irrational as that is!

[Move Klose 303]

If we can''t get 15points between now and end of the season its going to be 1 hell of a collapse. If we can''t get 4 wins & 3 draws in the next 21 games then we don''t deserve to be in the premiership next year.

[BroadstairsR 2,186]

The last time I looked at the table there were twelve clubs below us and we were ten points above the danger area.

 

Sorry to be optimistic, but we are safe and the supporters of the other twelve have more cause to be concerned than us canaries do.

 

Neither is it just about the table as the way we are playing at the moment gives extra cause for lack of concern. 

 

Bye Lambo, welcome Hoots.

[ricardo 7,395]

There is bound to be a bad period where we lose a few games but at worst if you can''t see us getting 3 wins and 6 draws form 21 games then we don''t deserve to stay up.It''s three from the bottom four now. Goal difference tells you all you need to know.

[tele 0]

I''m another who remembers 94/95 too clearly to think we''re safe already.

Was it 7th at new year with 33 points?

 

[ricky knight 0]

i think Reading are goners, QPR Still need a miracle they still need 30 pts for 40 point margin, Think saints will survive, just a hunch, i would be worried if i was a Wigan or Sunderland fan

[Indy 3,307]

We are never safe until it is mathematically safe! 94-95 seaon is a guide to what can happen, also 40 point is not a guarantee as West Ham found out even 42 points can get you relegated.

 

The saving fact for me is that out of our last 6 homes games we play teams who on paper we should get results, so even if we are dragged into the relegation battle, I believe we will get out of trouble.

 

If we can get to 42 points with games in hand, is when I believe we are safe and not before.

[lake district canary 4,540]

How can we be safe when we''ve only got 25 points?    Some of you need a reality check.   Nothing is guaranteed in football.  

[RvWs 4 year contract 0]

The fact that we''ve almost hit the 30 point mark by half way (bear in mind our sh** start) leaves me full of confidence.5 wins is needed for 40 points.We''ll be fine.

[ncfcstar 292]

[quote user="Indy"]

We are never safe until it is mathematically safe! 94-95 seaon is a guide to what can happen, also 40 point is not a guarantee as West Ham found out even 42 points can get you relegated.

 

The saving fact for me is that out of our last 6 homes games we play teams who on paper we should get results, so even if we are dragged into the relegation battle, I believe we will get out of trouble.

 

If we can get to 42 points with games in hand, is when I believe we are safe and not before.

[/quote]You think a team is going to get relegated with 42 points when two of the clubs in the relegation zone have 10 points or less and Wigan only have 15?The stats prove that 37 points is usually enough to guarantee you have more points than the club in 18th and I don''t see that changing this year.  We could *potentially* come out of the Christmas period with 37 points, I''m not saying we will, I''d be more than happy with 30 come 5pm on Jan 1st - if you honestly think Hughton, who has lost only 2 home games in 3 seasons is going to see us drop that dramatically in form then you need to have some positivity pills.

[YankeeCanary 0]

 

I realise it''s tempting to say how many wins or draws we will need but the fact is none of us knows what it will take. That''s why I disagree with Whitbread and Ricardo above who opine that if we can''t get x wins and y draws then we don''t deserve to stay up. Surely if we get one point more than the 18th place team come the end of the season then we do deserve to stay up, regardless of our results between now and then. What I am sure of is that we are all enjoying the team performances being put in and, as long as that remains, we should be happy that we''ve got that level of effort to watch.

[Bws Cat 0]

Here they come out again, the ones who want us to reach for the coveted 17th spot.

After a massive unbeaten run, and a points tally greater than Lambert last year, it would require a catastrophic failure to be relegated,

We should be asking if we can stay in the top half of the table, not if we will stay up.

[ncfcstar 292]

[quote user="BWs Cat "]Here they come out again, the ones who want us to reach for the coveted 17th spot.

After a massive unbeaten run, and a points tally greater than Lambert last year, it would require a catastrophic failure to be relegated,

We should be asking if we can stay in the top half of the table, not if we will stay up.[/quote][Y]

[a1canary 0]

[quote user="tele"]

I''m another who remembers 94/95 too clearly to think we''re safe already.

Was it 7th at new year with 33 points?

[/quote]

You''re right, it was 7th not 6th. Although i''m sure we were sixth at one stage in December. We won 1 game in our last 20, which happened to be the fateful derby featuring Cureton''s famed green hair. A game which allegedly resulted in Chase concluding the team didn''t need strengthening for the run-in. If it''s true, the fact that Ispwich were cut adrift at the bottom of the table and the worst side anyone could face in the division must have been lost on him.

We''ve got 21 games left this season. Also, given the amount of points being taken off the top sides this season, i''m not at all sure 40 will be enough. Having said all that, i do thing we''ll be fine, just that we might have to wait a little longer than we would rather to confirm it.

[Indy 3,307]

Why are so many convinved we will stay up while we are on 25 points is the question?

 

As proven this year any team can go on a good run, look at Arry and QPR, 3 draws and 1 win, if they go on to win again that will be 5 unbeaten. To think we are so far away with 25 games to is dangerous.

 

And we need to saty clear of 18th who could end up with 40 points! no one knows.

 

I know that not many of us thought we would go down 18 years ago and we were in a similliar position as this time.

 

Do I think we will go down, no of course not, but then did anyone think we would win 5 games at home on the bounce this season?

 

So as asked am I convinced we will stay up, no, do I think we will stay up, yes.

 

[Indy 3,307]

To think we are so far away with 25 games to is dangerous. meant 21 games, got confused with points we had......

[PurpleCanary 5,575]

[quote user="a1canary"][quote user="tele"]

I''m another who remembers 94/95 too clearly to think we''re safe already.

Was it 7th at new year with 33 points?

[/quote]

You''re right, it was 7th not 6th. Although i''m sure we were sixth at one stage in December. We won 1 game in our last 20, which happened to be the fateful derby featuring Cureton''s famed green hair. A game which allegedly resulted in Chase concluding the team didn''t need strengthening for the run-in. If it''s true, the fact that Ispwich were cut adrift at the bottom of the table and the worst side anyone could face in the division must have been lost on him.

We''ve got 21 games left this season. Also, given the amount of points being taken off the top sides this season, i''m not at all sure 40 will be enough. Having said all that, i do thing we''ll be fine, just that we might have to wait a little longer than we would rather to confirm it.

[/quote]

 

I remember driving back to London on New Year''s Eve after we had beaten Newcastle 2-1 and thinking - even as a pessimist - we were safe for another season. I suspect it was the performance of Marshall (it was the first post-Gunn injury game and he had an absolute blinder) that convinced Chase not to get a replacement. But we started shipping goals and Marshall''s confidence got shot, and indeed we won just that one more game.

But it is very hard to see that happening now. Then we were a club in decline with a thin squad (exacerbated by the loss of Gunn) with questionable management. Even if we have a bad spell there is enough quality and cover in the squad (with some more to come?) and managerial nous to get enough points.

[Yelloow Since 72 54]

It''s true there is no certainty yet, but the probability is certainly in our favour. My minimum target was a point a match and thus 38 points to stay up. I still think that will be enough, but I also feel that City will do far better than that and that at least Wigan, Reading and QPR won''t. I also think that there''s a good chance of a win on Saturday, as the Baggies have both DMFs out and haven''t scored in their last 3 matches. Keep the faith and OTBC!

[paul moy 235]

I just laugh at those that said Fulham would do well this season after beating us 5-0, when I was adamant that we made them look good. Look where they are now after losing to QPR. We are not safe until we get to around 38 points but it really would take a disaster of epic proportions for us to be relegated.  If we have the belief and luck with injuries it is not beyond us to finish 7th but we must not get complacent as I think we did after hitting 40 points or so last season.

[Yorkshire Canary 118]

We know from the previous history of our club that we are not safe i am sure that will be the message to the players. That said even if we lose the next 2 games we will have 25 points at the halfway stage this would probably mean that we only need another 13 pts as i am sure 38 will be enough this season like last. If that was the case we would have to perform as bad as reading and  QPR have done to date not to get those 13 pts. Possible of course but on the balance of probabilities and dont forget we stiill have 11 home games left we should not only be fine but  on or around the points tally of last season

[Hackedoff 0]

Southampton,Villa,Reading,Swansea,Wba,Newcastle,Fulham. I just can''t see any of these teams getting results against us at home.

[Highland Canary 76]

I''m certainly not convinced. I also would be surprised that any of us who watched our demise in 94/95 would be convinced either. Holt is key to our survival - take him out for a few weeks and I begin to fear.

I suspect that Reading will go down. Perm any two from City, Wigan and possibly QPR for the other spot. I think we can afford to write off the next few games but lose against Newcastle and we''ll be firmly in the mire.

[ncfcstar 292]

[quote user="Highland Canary"]I''m certainly not convinced. I also would be surprised that any of us who watched our demise in 94/95 would be convinced either. Holt is key to our survival - take him out for a few weeks and I begin to fear.

I suspect that Reading will go down. Perm any two from City, Wigan and possibly QPR for the other spot. I think we can afford to write off the next few games but lose against Newcastle and we''ll be firmly in the mire.[/quote]I''m finding your posts very amusing Highland, but they will begin to annoy me within the next few days.  You''re either a poor troll or just an idiot.

[Yorkshire Canary 118]

To be fair i think the situations are very different. I remember going to the Newcastle game that season just about this time of year we won 2 - 1 but htey must have hit our woodwork about 6 times. The rest is history but as others have said we have a much better manager and cash reserves if we need them and the spine of our team is very good

[Beauseant 0]

I never cease to be amazed by the mindset of some people on here. Nobody is suggesting that the job is done, nor will it be for some time. However, this is one of, if not the, best squads we''ve had at Norwich in the 40 odd years I''ve been a fan, and there''s every reason to expect that it will be strengthened in the window.

To believe that we will go down, or even be involved in a dog fight you must, logically, think that the team has played way beyond it''s capabilities in amassing 25 point from 17 games and will now go into sharp decline. In my view, we''ve got 25 points without hitting our full potential, and while there will inevitably be a bad spell at some point I think that there is even better to come from the squad that we have, let alone any new arrivals.Also, to suggest that Holt is the single key to our survival is ridiculous, and insulting to the likes of Bassong, Wes , Snoddy etc. Obviously, like everyone else we want to keep key players fit, but if you think that we are a just one man side you''re kidding yourselves.