Odds - We Are Favourite To Win The League

[KiwiScot 1,450]

I can only assume the bookmakers are expecting us to sort ourselves out by the start of the season otherwise the rest must be poor.

[Branston Pickle 3,661]

They will be looking at it dispassionately, and as such it probably represents a more realistic view of where things are.   Too many of our ‘supporters’ have written us off already, which is of course somewhat ridiculous, though there’s clearly a tonne of work to do.

Edited June 21, 2022 by Branston Pickle

[GJL Mid-Norfolk Canary 1,768]

If Watford lose Sarr and Dennis and Burnley lose Cornet and Weighorst , I would fancy us

Sheff Utd and WBA are the unkowns next season, will they go again and have a stronger second season such as Bournemouth did last season  ..or will they merge within the Championship pack i.e Stoke?

Even if if we didnt sign anyone else , I dont thi k I'd swap our current squad with anyone elses in this league

[Pockthorpe 531]

I got on at 8/1 with Skybet as soon as odds came out . Put some on for Pups . Down to 6/1 in places now. Who knows , but at 8/1 I think that’s a really good bet. Burnley - I don’t think so . Watford - maybe , but a bit of a mess I reckon. Glad Forest went up in play offs as I think they were head and shoulders above the rest of the Championship really. 

[Nora's Ghost 157]

The more money that goes on a loser the more the bookies stand to make.

 

We won't go up this season and people need to get used to the idea.

[Canary dwarf 221]

If we keep hold of pukki I think we'll bounce back straight away, however if we don't midtable finish , I don't want to sound like I think we're reliable on one single player, but pukki gets 25 goals at this level .😄

[TheGunnShow 5,940]

Just now, Canary dwarf said:

If we keep hold of pukki I think we'll bounce back straight away, however if we don't midtable finish , I don't want to sound like I think we're reliable on one single player, but pukki gets 25 goals at this level .😄

Needs a supply line. Hayden's going to be ultra-important here as if he does his job well, it frees the more attacking midfielders up, and above all, it frees the full-backs up.

[Midlands Yellow 3,995]

It’s very open who will win it. Those odds might look very generous with some clever signings. 

[Orly 277]

1 hour ago, Branston Pickle said:

They will be looking at it dispassionately, and as such it probably represents a more realistic view of where things are.   Too many of our ‘supporters’ have written us off already, which is of course somewhat ridiculous, though there’s clearly a tonne of work to do.

I'm not sure.  I'm not particularly knee-jerk inclined, and I have my doubts about this season.  Lots of wheeling and dealing yet to be done of course, but I was confident in 20/21.  Am worried about 22/23.

[Canary dwarf 221]

From the footage I've seen of Hayden he looks just what we need , however a creative midfielder would not go amiss.😙

[canarydan23 4,060]

16 minutes ago, Nora's Ghost said:

The more money that goes on a loser the more the bookies stand to make.

 

We won't go up this season and people need to get used to the idea.

Yeah, you won't. Derby, Peterborough and Portsmouth will finish ahead of you at least I reckon.

[Branston Pickle 3,661]

22 minutes ago, Orly said:

I'm not sure.  I'm not particularly knee-jerk inclined, and I have my doubts about this season.  Lots of wheeling and dealing yet to be done of course, but I was confident in 20/21.  Am worried about 22/23.

I’m not totally certain, you can’t be and we were definitely crap last season - but bookies will be looking beyond that.  There is a huge gulf between the divisions as we’ve shown in recent years, and despite others suggesting differently, Smith does know what he’s doing. But there’s still a heck of a lot of work to do to make it happen.

Edited June 21, 2022 by Branston Pickle

[Commonsense 624]

33 minutes ago, Nora's Ghost said:

The more money that goes on a loser the more the bookies stand to make.

 

We won't go up this season and people need to get used to the idea.

If by ‘we’ you mean the Binners that you support, I suggest that you are correct, and also that everybody has got used to that idea as you are playing at your natural level.

[Pockthorpe 531]

34 minutes ago, Nora's Ghost said:

The more money that goes on a loser the more the bookies stand to make.

If you ever set up as a bookmaker please let me know . 

[Christoph Stiepermann 1,138]

If we can sort central midfield we should be fine in terms of quality. The issue might be motivation and mentality if we can't freshen the squad up. Most will know they would need to be replaced if we get promoted again and this group has already shown itself to being mentally fragile, lacking in composure and inconsistent. As we know at that level constancy and and a strong mentality matters as much if not more than quality. We had a very good team when we were relegated under Alex Neil and at times tore teams apart, but we were inconsistent and heads always dropped quickly which meant we finished mid table, I'd argue on an individual quality level that team was better than the teams promoted under Farke the first time and Lambert but those two teams never gave up in the face of adversity, had belief and were consistent in managing good stretches of form throughout the whole season.

On paper we should walk it, but from what I saw last year I'm not relishing watching this team perform away at Rotherham or Luton away on a Tuesday night so changing the mentality will be just as important as any transfer activity. 

[YellowCanary 11]

54 minutes ago, Canary dwarf said:

If we keep hold of pukki I think we'll bounce back straight away, however if we don't midtable finish , I don't want to sound like I think we're reliable on one single player, but pukki gets 25 goals at this level .😄

 

[canarybubbles 1,923]

I think those odds are incredibly stingy.

1) We have no Farke, no Buendia, no Skipp, perhaps no Pukki.

2) We were embarrassingly bad in about half of our games last season. We were a total mess, the whipping boys. So we not only have to improve a lot, we also have to shed a losing mentality and shed it almost immediately.

3) We have a manager who showed no sign last season of knowing what to do to correct that situation. He may come good, but I'd argue there's no evidence from last season that he will. Forget his record at Villa and Brentford; look at his record last season. It was poor.

Maybe I'm wrong and we'll waltz it again, but 7/1 is a ridiculous price at the moment IMO.

[GodlyOtsemobor 2,326]

57 minutes ago, canarybubbles said:

Forget his record at Villa and Brentford; look at his record last season. It was poor.

So for this argument we have to forget what he done in the league we're about to compete in with teams he had a chance to build and bring players into, and just concentrate on what he done in a few months with a group of players who he didn't bring in and who were clearly not good enough to compete no matter what the tactics... Also no chance of him bringing his own players in until this window..... I'd say give him at least till Christmas this coming season, if I'm proven wrong and he's woeful in this league id be the first to hold my hands up. 

 

As it is, I fully believe we have someone in charge who will work in this league, I fully expect a top 6 finish. 

[BroadstairsR 2,174]

We'll need a bit more activity in the transfer market for me to be happy with that price. My pounds remain prisoners.

[canarydan23 4,060]

32 minutes ago, GodlyOtsemobor said:

So for this argument we have to forget what he done in the league we're about to compete in

You see, I'm not forgetting his record. Failed to get Brentford up, or even into the playoffs, despite both full time managers before and after him managing top 6 finishes, Frank twice.

Managed to get Villa up, but only via the playoffs and with arguably the best squad in the league. Yes, they'd started poorly under Bruce, but they were only 2 or 3 points behind us when Smith walked through the door.

His record at this level, given the teams he was in charge of, is not actually all that great.

[canarybubbles 1,923]

41 minutes ago, GodlyOtsemobor said:

So for this argument we have to forget what he done in the league we're about to compete in with teams he had a chance to build and bring players into, and just concentrate on what he done in a few months with a group of players who he didn't bring in and who were clearly not good enough to compete no matter what the tactics... Also no chance of him bringing his own players in until this window..... I'd say give him at least till Christmas this coming season, if I'm proven wrong and he's woeful in this league id be the first to hold my hands up. 

 

As it is, I fully believe we have someone in charge who will work in this league, I fully expect a top 6 finish. 

And if I'm wrong, I'll hold my hands up, too.

In retrospect, I think it would have been much better for the club, and for Smith personally, if he had been brought in with five or six matches to go. Then none of last season's failure would have attached to him, and there might be a real 'new broom' feel around the club. As it is, even those fans who argue in favour of Smith (a clear majority, I believe) are saying 'give him till Christmas' rather than offering enthusiastic support.

[Danke bitte 965]

9 hours ago, Christoph Stiepermann said:

If we can sort central midfield we should be fine in terms of quality. The issue might be motivation and mentality if we can't freshen the squad up. Most will know they would need to be replaced if we get promoted again and this group has already shown itself to being mentally fragile, lacking in composure and inconsistent. As we know at that level constancy and and a strong mentality matters as much if not more than quality. We had a very good team when we were relegated under Alex Neil and at times tore teams apart, but we were inconsistent and heads always dropped quickly which meant we finished mid table, I'd argue on an individual quality level that team was better than the teams promoted under Farke the first time and Lambert but those two teams never gave up in the face of adversity, had belief and were consistent in managing good stretches of form throughout the whole season.

On paper we should walk it, but from what I saw last year I'm not relishing watching this team perform away at Rotherham or Luton away on a Tuesday night so changing the mentality will be just as important as any transfer activity. 

Excellent post. 

[GodlyOtsemobor 2,326]

26 minutes ago, canarydan23 said:

You see, I'm not forgetting his record. Failed to get Brentford up, or even into the playoffs, despite both full time managers before and after him managing top 6 finishes, Frank twice.

Managed to get Villa up, but only via the playoffs and with arguably the best squad in the league. Yes, they'd started poorly under Bruce, but they were only 2 or 3 points behind us when Smith walked through the door.

His record at this level, given the teams he was in charge of, is not actually all that great.

But......

 

his record at this level is better than farke's and Alex Neil's were when we brought them in.. both got us up 😉 (I jest of course) 

I just believe he will give us enough to push for promotion, do I think it'll be easy? Absolutely not, and of course incomings will determine how much of a chance we have. But I do think top 6 is where we will be. (Maybe 6th but top 6 nonetheless) 

 

[Capt. Pants 4,246]

We still don't have a promotion winning midfield imo. 

The expectation will be for automatic promotion and rightly so. I can see a Championship bereft of quality, back to the good old days and will be quite open. Wouldn't surprise me if Sunderland do well.

A couple of quality signings and it should be a walk in the park.

[hogesar 9,676]

10 hours ago, Nora's Ghost said:

The more money that goes on a loser the more the bookies stand to make.

 

We won't go up this season and people need to get used to the idea.

I'm more than comfortable with the idea of Ipswich wasting another season in the third tier.

[lincsy88 95]

11 hours ago, Nora's Ghost said:

The more money that goes on a loser the more the bookies stand to make.

 

We won't go up this season and people need to get used to the idea.

What evidence do you have to show this? 

[Bert 236]

Still not enough goals in our team to make us favourites, needs some additional attacking options that can put the ball in the net before we get carried away 

[canarydan23 4,060]

1 hour ago, GodlyOtsemobor said:

But......

 

his record at this level is better than farke's and Alex Neil's were when we brought them in.. both got us up 😉 (I jest of course) 

I just believe he will give us enough to push for promotion, do I think it'll be easy? Absolutely not, and of course incomings will determine how much of a chance we have. But I do think top 6 is where we will be. (Maybe 6th but top 6 nonetheless) 

 

We should be top 2 on paper. Just look at that list, who should frighten us? I know there is a lot of talk over our midfield but Kenny is fine at this level, that's proven by 2 medals, and Hayden is a Premier League DM. We have the same back four that did a fantastic job two years ago with an arguable upgrade in Omo. Admittedly, Aarons may go but Byram is a capable replacement. 

Basically, if this squad isn't challenging for top 2 then there has been a serious failure by Smith.

[TheGunnShow 5,940]

If Farke had this team, I think we'd be in the automatic places and we'd pull out some scintillating performances along the way. With Smith, it'll be more functional and I think we'll lose a few we should win, but we might win a few that we might not expect to as a counter-balance.

Success will depend, IMO, on these three things above all:

1. The squad's collective ability to put a bad season behind them. (This is where Farke earned his corn for me last time. The Championship is notoriously tough to get straight back out of, the fact we won it after being relegated the previous year is a rare event).

2. Development/performance of the fringe/promising youngsters. Omobamidele and Idah are the obvious two. I would throw Sörensen, Tzolis and one of Rowe or Springett in there. I suspect one of the last two will get a loan unless Rashica is sold. This is the season for Idah to come out and shine if he has what some of us think he has.

3. Smith's ability to manage player workloads/expectations. We had a serious injury crisis last time in the earlier stages of the Championship due to a congested Covid-related season. We have a similarly congested season this time due to the World Cup in winter. Smith will need a fairly large squad, and he will need to make sure his reserves are match-sharp or close to it. It should be made easier with the new 5 subs rule for this season.

Just behind those, I'd say similar to 2, development/performance of last year's purchases, so PLM and Rashica in particular, as well as Tzolis who is mentioned anyway as one of the youngsters. Rupp showed himself a player who was excellent in the Champs after half-a-season of getting used to English football, and I get the impression both PLM and Rashica should kick on.

[lake district canary 4,533]

Truth is none of us know how it will go next season. If we had Farke in charge, then I would expect him to have got us playing his scintilating style of football that the rest of the division could not cope with, but without him and with a much more traditionally English style manager, the outcome is totally unknowable. 

I was hugely positive that Farke was going to be a great manager from the moment he joined the club in 2018, but I do not get that positivity with Smith. We have the potential to do well, of course - and with Shaky as coach I think we will see some exciting developments with the players like Idah,Sargent, Tzolis and Rowe, but will we do a Farke and bounce straight into championship winning form?  That is as much a mental thing as anything - and that is where Farke was so good - but with Smith?  We'll see.