Odds - We Are Favourite To Win The League

[canarybubbles 1,946]

49 minutes ago, TheGunnShow said:

2. Development/performance of the fringe/promising youngsters. Omobamidele and Idah are the obvious two. I would throw Sörensen, Tzolis and one of Rowe or Springett in there. I suspect one of the last two will get a loan unless Rashica is sold. This is the season for Idah to come out and shine if he has what some of us think he has.

 

I don't think there's much chance of Tzolis being here. Smith clearly doesn't rate him and has more or less ignored him ever since he took over as manager. Plus there have been the rumours around Club Brugge. Sadly (IMO, although I know others will strongly disagree with me), I think Tzolis is history as far as NCFC are concerned.

Also, look at it from Tzolis's perspective. You can play in the under-23s for a Championship club under a manager who thinks you're dross, or you can play in the Champions League. Bit of a no-brainer, isn't it?

Edited June 22, 2022 by canarybubbles

[Fiery Zac 1,066]

3 hours ago, canarydan23 said:

Managed to get Villa up, but only via the playoffs and with arguably the best squad in the league. Yes, they'd started poorly under Bruce, but they were only 2 or 3 points behind us when Smith walked through the door.

Playing horrible football under Bruce.

He changed the philosophy of the club in less than a season and got them promoted. Farke had a whole mid table season to change ours before getting us up the next.

Villa also lost Grealish for 3 months. We'll never know, but I imagine losing Emi for 3 months would've had some sort of impact.

It's your opinion, it's fine. I think he's proven he's a very good manager at this level and plays good football.

[yellowrider120 791]

12 hours ago, Christoph Stiepermann said:

If we can sort central midfield we should be fine in terms of quality. The issue might be motivation and mentality if we can't freshen the squad up. Most will know they would need to be replaced if we get promoted again and this group has already shown itself to being mentally fragile, lacking in composure and inconsistent. As we know at that level constancy and and a strong mentality matters as much if not more than quality. We had a very good team when we were relegated under Alex Neil and at times tore teams apart, but we were inconsistent and heads always dropped quickly which meant we finished mid table, I'd argue on an individual quality level that team was better than the teams promoted under Farke the first time and Lambert but those two teams never gave up in the face of adversity, had belief and were consistent in managing good stretches of form throughout the whole season.

On paper we should walk it, but from what I saw last year I'm not relishing watching this team perform away at Rotherham or Luton away on a Tuesday night so changing the mentality will be just as important as any transfer activity. 

Absolutely right. Much has been made of 'proven Championship winners' (twice) in the squad but have Krul, Aarons (if he stays), Hanley, McLean and Pukki really got that drive to 'get up and go again'?? None will throw a strop like Cantwell and Buendia did but (equally) what will their motivation be like after the scars of last season when Webber implicitly promised them so much??   

[canarybubbles 1,946]

7 minutes ago, yellowrider120 said:

Absolutely right. Much has been made of 'proven Championship winners' (twice) in the squad but have Krul, Aarons (if he stays), Hanley, McLean and Pukki really got that drive to 'get up and go again'?? None will throw a strop like Cantwell and Buendia did but (equally) what will their motivation be like after the scars of last season when Webber implicitly promised them so much??   

And, in Pukki's case, does he fancy another season of pointlessly chasing long balls hoofed up towards him? He deserves better than that, and he's savvy enough to make sure he gets it. He may not get a move to a PL club, but there'll be a queue for his services if he makes it clear that he wishes to go, both from Championship rivals and from continental European clubs.

Edited June 22, 2022 by canarybubbles

[canarydan23 4,060]

14 minutes ago, Fiery Zac said:

Playing horrible football under Bruce.

He changed the philosophy of the club in less than a season and got them promoted. Farke had a whole mid table season to change ours before getting us up the next.

Villa also lost Grealish for 3 months. We'll never know, but I imagine losing Emi for 3 months would've had some sort of impact.

It's your opinion, it's fine. I think he's proven he's a very good manager at this level and plays good football.

Bruce finished in the playoffs the season before.

Brentford finished in the playoffs the season before he arrived.

Brentford finished in the playoffs the season after he left.

Brentford didn't finish in the playoffs whilst he was there.

He's proven he's an OK manager at this level, not awful, but certainly not very good. Just have to hope an OK manager is enough for the squad we've got to get up.

[TheGunnShow 6,021]

34 minutes ago, canarybubbles said:

I don't think there's much chance of Tzolis being here. Smith clearly doesn't rate him and has more or less ignored him ever since he took over as manager. Plus there have been the rumours around Club Brugge. Sadly (IMO, although I know others will strongly disagree with me), I think Tzolis is history as far as NCFC are concerned.

Also, look at it from Tzolis's perspective. You can play in the under-23s for a Championship club under a manager who thinks you're dross, or you can play in the Champions League. Bit of a no-brainer, isn't it?

Possible, but at the same time, he may also have struggled to settle as a youngster in a foreign country. He wouldn't be the first to have been a slow starter with us, and he certainly won't be the last. You could certainly be right, but a new, full pre-season with the team after having a year to settle in could be the difference-maker. We can only wait and see.

To name but two, Vrancic and Stiepermann took a season to get going. They were both key members of that first Farke Championship-winning season squad.

[Fiery Zac 1,066]

30 minutes ago, canarydan23 said:

Bruce finished in the playoffs the season before.

Brentford finished in the playoffs the season before he arrived.

Brentford finished in the playoffs the season after he left.

Brentford didn't finish in the playoffs whilst he was there.

He's proven he's an OK manager at this level, not awful, but certainly not very good. Just have to hope an OK manager is enough for the squad we've got to get up.

Getting a team promoted from the championship means whoever it is, they're more than 'OK'. The way he did it that season shows he's more than 'OK'.

Look further than Wikipedia stats to get an insight into the style and philosophy that Smith has brought to clubs. The lasting opinion fans have and the legacies he's left.

It may not work here. Last season may be too much to come back from. But from his past experience, he has all the credentials needed to succeed and there isn't a manager in the championship I'd swap him with.

[Nuff Said 5,178]

58 minutes ago, canarybubbles said:

And, in Pukki's case, does he fancy another season of pointlessly chasing long balls hoofed up towards him? He deserves better than that, and he's savvy enough to make sure he gets it. He may not get a move to a PL club, but there'll be a queue for his services if he makes it clear that he wishes to go, both from Championship rivals and from continental European clubs.

Fortunately, that’s not how Dean Smith gets his teams to play, so irrelevant.

[hogesar 9,760]

7 minutes ago, Nuff Said said:

Fortunately, that’s not how Dean Smith gets his teams to play, so irrelevant.

It's not even worth addressing it. I've done it with that poster multiple times and provided seasons worth of evidence beyond just our limited relegation dogfight scenario, and he seems to completely disregard it.

[By Hook or Ian crook 917]

17 hours ago, KiwiScot said:

I can only assume the bookmakers are expecting us to sort ourselves out by the start of the season otherwise the rest must be poor.

We have won it twice in a row so it’s fairly reasonable odds to be fair 

[sgncfc 1,259]

I think Swansea, Middlesbro and Sheff Utd will join the three relegated clubs in the top 6. Sunderland may threaten if they get a good start. There's a lot of Championship experience at Norwich and Watford - they know what they need to do, and the quality of their squads is high for the league. All depends on the ins and outs before the window closes, but at the moment I'd say we were certainly up there with the favourites.

[canarydan23 4,060]

2 hours ago, Fiery Zac said:

Wikipedia stats

League position. Not Wikipedia stats. It's kind of an important stat for a football manager. Probably the most important. 

And Smith finished 5th at Villa (4th the year before under Bruce) and whilst I accept he was hampered by Bruce being in charge at the start of the season, I come back to the fact that he was only 2 points off Farke at the point he took over, with a squad evidently capable of finishing 4th even under Bruce. It was the best paid squad and most valuable in the league, after all.

And both his successor and full time predecessor at Brentford finished higher than he managed.

[TheGunnShow 6,021]

2 hours ago, Nuff Said said:

Fortunately, that’s not how Dean Smith gets his teams to play, so irrelevant.

Yeah, Smith strikes me as being a pragmatist in the Allardyce mould, but not as good at organising a team defensively. By that I mean he'll look at the situation the club is in, the players he's got, and try to come up with something to fit them (in contrast, Farke had a way of playing that he stuck to, do or die). Allardyce always had this reputation of being a long-ball merchant and uncritical media voices used to say that about his old Bolton teams. Which was absolute dross spouted by the thoughtless and believed by the brainless.

A Bolton team which, in Allardyce's later years at the club, contained the likes of Fernando Hierro, Ivan Campo, Nicolas Anelka, Youri Djorkaeff, Stelios Giannakopoulos, and Jay-Jay Okocha. Yeah. Real long-ball outfit there. Heck, my eyes rolled so hard they just saw last night's dinner. Given a remit, time, and no pressure to stay up, Smith likes his teams to play. His Walsall side played decent football for the league they were in. His Brentford teams definitely turned out some good stuff to watch.

I think we might see the lads relax into playing some nice stuff next season, but it won't have quite the same sparkle as some of the Farkeball's finest moments.

Edited June 22, 2022 by TheGunnShow

[Inch High aka Inchy.. 412]

Dean Smith had no idea what to do with this squad last season so there's no reason to believe he will this season coming. 

Prepare for a rough ride.

[wr4sb 33]

Don't worry, Cardiff will immediately be installed favourites if Part-time Bale signs for them. 

No doubt the part time games will include both games against us... 

[Monty13 2,252]

4 hours ago, lake district canary said:

Truth is none of us know how it will go next season. If we had Farke in charge, then I would expect him to have got us playing his scintilating style of football that the rest of the division could not cope with, but without him and with a much more traditionally English style manager, the outcome is totally unknowable. 

I was hugely positive that Farke was going to be a great manager from the moment he joined the club in 2018, but I do not get that positivity with Smith. We have the potential to do well, of course - and with Shaky as coach I think we will see some exciting developments with the players like Idah,Sargent, Tzolis and Rowe, but will we do a Farke and bounce straight into championship winning form?  That is as much a mental thing as anything - and that is where Farke was so good - but with Smith?  We'll see.

What is traditionally English about Smiths style? 

Other than the fact Farke was German and Smith’s English I’ve no idea why you keep saying this?

Smith may fail here but I don’t think that will be because of his traditional Englishness personally (whatever that is). Everything I’ve read and heard about him he seems much more pragmatic and forward thinking than any traditional English manager. 

[Nora's Ghost 157]

7 hours ago, lincsy88 said:

What evidence do you have to show this? 

 

 

Wait and see.

[AJ 1,230]

Whilst it is slightly surprising, I'm sure it probably takes into account we've won the last two championship seasons we have taken part in

[Essjayess 307]

3 hours ago, By Hook or Ian crook said:

We have won it twice in a row so it’s fairly reasonable odds to be fair 

There is that, but i think the odds also do not reflect long term history, only recent history. No club has ever gone up as Champions from the 2nd tier into the top tier 3 times consecutively, indeed City's 2nd Champions titile season before last was only the 3rd time its ever happened two times on the trot.

But although there is much uncertainty about the coming season,  one would hope we have enough for top 6, maybe even a scrap for 2nd...but as Champions?..Que Sera Sera.

[By Hook or Ian crook 917]

17 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

There is that, but i think the odds also do not reflect long term history, only recent history. No club has ever gone up as Champions from the 2nd tier into the top tier 3 times consecutively, indeed City's 2nd Champions titile season before last was only the 3rd time its ever happened two times on the trot.

But although there is much uncertainty about the coming season,  one would hope we have enough for top 6, maybe even a scrap for 2nd...but as Champions?..Que Sera Sera.

I’m hopeful for next year at the moment 

[mannings bandy legs 399]

What if,and I know its an if,but a horrible if,Hayden gets injured in pre-season? Where's Hayden mk.2? .....we're back to where we  ended last season....just saying!

[Robert N. LiM 4,513]

7 hours ago, TheGunnShow said:

1. The squad's collective ability to put a bad season behind them. (This is where Farke earned his corn for me last time. The Championship is notoriously tough to get straight back out of, the fact we won it after being relegated the previous year is a rare event).

good post. with regard to your point 1, I think DF was hugely helped by the lack of fans in stadiums. (Which is only fair given we were hugely hindered by it in Project Restart). It gave the players a bit of breathing space without a nervous crowd at CR - and it made away games much less daunting. 

[Robert N. LiM 4,513]

1 hour ago, Monty13 said:

What is traditionally English about Smiths style? 

Other than the fact Farke was German and Smith’s English I’ve no idea why you keep saying this?

Smith may fail here but I don’t think that will be because of his traditional Englishness personally (whatever that is). Everything I’ve read and heard about him he seems much more pragmatic and forward thinking than any traditional English manager. 

+1.

Smith just looks English, with his boring clothes and dreadful hair. 

[TheGunnShow 6,021]

8 minutes ago, Robert N. LiM said:

good post. with regard to your point 1, I think DF was hugely helped by the lack of fans in stadiums. (Which is only fair given we were hugely hindered by it in Project Restart). It gave the players a bit of breathing space without a nervous crowd at CR - and it made away games much less daunting. 

Certainly feasible, but could also work both ways - if the team's just battling hard at home regardless of the score in the match at that point in time, an enthusiastic crowd could spur them on.