Will selling Emi Buendia make us a better side?

[Petriix 2,842]

There's some incredible misunderstanding on here about how to manage and evolve a squad. I guess everyone has been playing too much Football Manager so they expect to always be levelling-up and don't appreciate the complexities of the real world.

The truth is that a single player can't ever compensate for a weak squad. You could have Messi in the team and still finish bottom of the league. Not that I believe all the hyperbole about just how good Emi has become: he's a great player, probably about as good as Maddison, not a world-beater. And we've received an astronomical amount of money which ranks somewhere around the 100th highest transfer fee ever paid. Even if you think we've slightly undervalued him, it's not the unmitigated disaster people are suggesting.

We lacked the quality around him to be able to say that Emi would have kept us up so it's nonsensical to think that we need to directly replace him. Consider instead replacing him with three players: a creative central midfielder better than McLean, like Vrancic but with the legs and athleticism required at this level; a pacey winger better than Hernandez and Placheta, able to scare defenders and produce a decent end product; and a quality striker/no 10 able to compete with Pukki and Dowell or as a viable option to change a game from the bench. Even though none of those players would be close to Emi's level, collectively they would make the team stronger than before.

[rock bus 854]

21 minutes ago, Petriix said:

There's some incredible misunderstanding on here about how to manage and evolve a squad. I guess everyone has been playing too much Football Manager so they expect to always be levelling-up and don't appreciate the complexities of the real world.

The truth is that a single player can't ever compensate for a weak squad. You could have Messi in the team and still finish bottom of the league. Not that I believe all the hyperbole about just how good Emi has become: he's a great player, probably about as good as Maddison, not a world-beater. And we've received an astronomical amount of money which ranks somewhere around the 100th highest transfer fee ever paid. Even if you think we've slightly undervalued him, it's not the unmitigated disaster people are suggesting.

We lacked the quality around him to be able to say that Emi would have kept us up so it's nonsensical to think that we need to directly replace him. Consider instead replacing him with three players: a creative central midfielder better than McLean, like Vrancic but with the legs and athleticism required at this level; a pacey winger better than Hernandez and Placheta, able to scare defenders and produce a decent end product; and a quality striker/no 10 able to compete with Pukki and Dowell or as a viable option to change a game from the bench. Even though none of those players would be close to Emi's level, collectively they would make the team stronger than before.

Great post and this is exactly my hope.

It's a brave move by Webber and his future here and longer term may depend on it being the right one (he has an excellent reputation for picking up bargains and getting teams promoted but could have two failures to consolidate the improvements on his CV). The key is can we actually get those 3 players - do we have the resources or will our scouting and recruitment be much better than last time we were in the premier league.

Inevitably, if we are relegated people will blame it on the loss of Buendia (ignoring your point that no-one player can save a team and we might still have been relegated with him). BUT if we survive we will all be looking back at this as a master stroke as we wave Webber off to Liverpool, Man City, Barcelona, Madrid etc!

[Son Ova Gunn 165]

2 hours ago, sgncfc said:

Agree with most of this. Gibson was in the England squad before he was ignored at Burnley. IMO he is a much better centre back than Godfrey ever was for us. I can't really comment on Godfrey's performances at Everton but he played like a headless chicken for England the other night!

Not conceding goals in the PL is (obviously) crucial to having a chance to stay up, so getting Skipp again, or someone as good in that position, is more important for me than keeping Buendia.

The importance of replacing Skipp with someone of similar calibre is I agree up there with the most important issues of the summer. 
I’m surprised at being alone in thinking Gibson is no better that Godfrey, when I think back to our previous title win Godfrey was immense, overshadowed by Pukki but who wasn’t, but a stand out performer in a young inexperienced defence. I think people are comparing his premiership year with Gibsons championship year and there will no doubt be occasions Gibson will be turn inside out by some of the best strikers in the world next year. Gibson wasn’t even our best centre back this year. I’m not putting Gibson down (really!), great addition great season and looking forward to seeing him next year but big upgrade nah, not even with the headless chicken England outing at right back thrown in

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

No

[Mason 47 1,383]

 

I think there's a great deal of progression bias amongst Norwich fans due to how fun the ride was this year. They originally identified Emi was a good fit for us because of the positions he took up and his predilection for setting up the type of chances Pukki did well with. 

Do people think we're now just going to discard that team building method and buy the first player an agent offers us?

[birchfest 397]

I think the answer Webber would give us is yes. Remember this is a man who said he sent Farke to war without a gun last time (with Buendia in the squad) its also the same man who said our goal is to finish the transfer window with a squad that on paper is better than the one we have. Now thats quite a bold thing to say if your willing to let our best individual player go and don't have any idea or plan in place to compensate for that. 

 

I think the way we have to look at it is the club rated Emi as a 9/10 player but within our squad we have too many 5 or 6/10 players at the  Premier league level, something we learnt last time. So at the cost of selling one excellent player we can hope to bring in 3 or 4 players that are more in the 7 or 8/10 to raise the overall quality. 

[AJ 1,222]

2 hours ago, Petriix said:

There's some incredible misunderstanding on here about how to manage and evolve a squad. I guess everyone has been playing too much Football Manager so they expect to always be levelling-up and don't appreciate the complexities of the real world.

The truth is that a single player can't ever compensate for a weak squad. You could have Messi in the team and still finish bottom of the league. Not that I believe all the hyperbole about just how good Emi has become: he's a great player, probably about as good as Maddison, not a world-beater. And we've received an astronomical amount of money which ranks somewhere around the 100th highest transfer fee ever paid. Even if you think we've slightly undervalued him, it's not the unmitigated disaster people are suggesting.

We lacked the quality around him to be able to say that Emi would have kept us up so it's nonsensical to think that we need to directly replace him. Consider instead replacing him with three players: a creative central midfielder better than McLean, like Vrancic but with the legs and athleticism required at this level; a pacey winger better than Hernandez and Placheta, able to scare defenders and produce a decent end product; and a quality striker/no 10 able to compete with Pukki and Dowell or as a viable option to change a game from the bench. Even though none of those players would be close to Emi's level, collectively they would make the team stronger than before.

This is a beautifully crafted response, and full of very good points. The end paragraph is a good review of how far we've come in the past few seasons.

Think about how much we've spent on some of these squad players that you've mentioned there: McLean less than £1M, Hernandez around £2M, Placheta around £2.5M, Vrancic less than £1M [fee's all taken from transfermarkt]. Either way, you get the idea. We now have £33MILLION to spend. That's an astronomical amount compared to those players, and if we invest it wisely yes we probably won't sign someone at Emi's level, but we can sign some decent players who improve what we have, and some players which MIGHT become the Emi of the future.

[Yobocop 1,099]

4 hours ago, Dean Coneys boots said:

It amazes me how many people seem to think replacing a £33million player with a £10million player will prove easy and abs barely impact our team…

We did a lot better than that when we sold James Maddison 

[Yobocop 1,099]

I think we already started to last season 

[TheGunnShow 5,940]

We outgrew players like Leitner and Trybull. Buendia, this season, probably outgrew us and was far ahead to the point where we were potentially a shade unbalanced and discombobulated when without him, although the Forest match without Emi due to childbirth was certainly a performance!

[Kenny Foggo 1,116]

4 hours ago, Dean Coneys boots said:

I agree that skipp is more important in terms of a gap from last year- he protected the back four and is the reason we were defensively so much better. Fingers crossed he returns for loan 2

i disagree Buendia isn’t hard to replace. He creates almost all of our goals 

17% win rate without him in the side....

[BigFish 1,988]

24 minutes ago, Kenny Foggo said:

17% win rate without him in the side....

Not a meaningful sample

[smooth 114]

For me Emi is an exceptional player, he often would track back, get tackles in and then in the attacking 2/3's he has been one of the best players we have had.

Pukki will suffer without him, cantwell and Dowell more closely marked and also they will need to step up.

Buendia did make us a better team, too many people go on about his coue of red cards or grumbles when fouled. But he was the most fouled player in our prem season and last year. Teams knew what he was about, which is an exceptional player who can rightly turn a game.

We have to bring in players, evolve our style a bit and bring in players that raise our game across the field. We won't replace Buendia but we can improve a number of layers around which will share the load.

If buendia had stayed it could have helped with recruitment but again we have internationals throughout our team, young internationals and those who have gone on for big money.

We need 2 defensive midfielders, a wide player who can be a striker, centre half, goalie and full back cover. You could even say we do need to placheta or Hernandez to prove we don't need to buy another wide player.

Bring on the transfer window and new incomings, I imagine there will be outgoings of fringe and possibly Max but I also believe we will bring in some exciting players.

[Canaries north 151]

As I think most people will agree we would all have preferred to keep Buendia. The fact is I think a lot of us suspected he would go. Now this transfer window is huge. Yes we won the league but as it stands we have lost our 2 best players from the squad we had last season and are considerably weaker. On transfer dealings so far we have an extra £15 million give or take in the bank. Do we need to strengthen in a lot of areas for next season, well the obvious answer is yes. Will we spend £100 million on players, no. We really need the signings we make to do the business but let's be honest, when you are looking in the markets we are if 50% of the signings come good you have done well. I feel we need it to be a lot closer to 100% to stand a chance. Good luck Webber. 

[AJ 1,222]

1 hour ago, Kenny Foggo said:

17% win rate without him in the side....

In a team built around him. Things will be different now

[Upo 91]

19 hours ago, Dean Coneys boots said:

I agree that skipp is more important in terms of a gap from last year- he protected the back four and is the reason we were defensively so much better. Fingers crossed he returns for loan 2

i disagree Buendia isn’t hard to replace. He creates almost all of our goals 

Emi Buendia assisted 16 and scored 15 of Norwich's' 75 goals. 31/75 ~ 41.3%. Ergo, he does not create most of our goals. In fact, Teemu Pukki directly contributed to 30 goals, just 1 less than Emi. That's 40% of total goals.

Messi scored 30 and assisted 9 of Barca's 85 goals in La Liga, or 45.9%. That is a ridiculous number. I can't think of a team more critically dependent on one player than Barca has been for 10 years. Ex-Messi Barca scored only 46 goals, matching clubs placed #10 and #14 in points. 

Yet, if Messi left Barca, they wouldn't be outside top 5. The reason is because they adapt their strategy. And so will we next season.

 

[Canary Wundaboy 1,359]

11 minutes ago, Upo said:

Yet, if Messi left Barca, they wouldn't be outside top 5. The reason is because they adapt their strategy. And so will we next season.

Barca are always a top 3 side.

We're not top-17 EPL side. We need to actually improve the side to reach the survival point, the situations aren't equivalent.

[Fuzzar 1,702]

The OP is a fair question.

Perhaps if we get more than 21 points, score more than 26 goals, concede fewer than 75 goals and don't finish bottom we'll have the answer!

[Upo 91]

15 minutes ago, Canary Wundaboy said:

Barca are always a top 3 side.

We're not top-17 EPL side. We need to actually improve the side to reach the survival point, the situations aren't equivalent.

Not sure what you mean. Both clubs need to recruit and adapt strategy to come up with a team that fits their respective goals. Thanks to selling Buendia, we can sign players who overall make for a better team. I have zero doubt that what we can get for what we got from selling Emi, will make us stronger squad even when that particular position is weaker. Of course, that is not guaranteed and recruitment needs to succeed.

It is never about one player.

Edited June 9, 2021 by Upo

[BigFish 1,988]

4 minutes ago, Upo said:

Not sure what you mean. Both clubs need to recruit and adapt strategy to come up with a team that fits their respective goals. Thanks to selling Buendia, we can sign players who overall make for a better team. I have zero doubt that what we can get for what we got from selling Emi, will make us stronger squad even when that particular position is weaker. Of course, that is not guaranteed and recruitment needs to succeed.

It is never about one player.

True, Buendia for all his talents was not going the fill the gaps in CDM, cover at CB, GK and FB if required or act as a 2nd striker.

[lake district canary 4,535]

17 hours ago, TheGunnShow said:

We outgrew players like Leitner and Trybull. Buendia, this season, probably outgrew us and was far ahead to the point where we were potentially a shade unbalanced and discombobulated when without him, although the Forest match without Emi due to childbirth was certainly a performance!

This ^^^   It showed very well that we were not a one man team and that no-one is indispenable.  It's exciting we have Dowell who may well be excellent running at defences, Cantwell who has grown as a player, Idah who is going to offer some physicality and goals too - and whoever can step up - and whoever we can bring in to strengthen. 

Edited June 9, 2021 by lake district canary

[TheGunnShow 5,940]

3 minutes ago, lake district canary said:

This ^^^   It showed very well that we were not a one man team and that no-one is indispenable.  It's exciting we have Dowell who may well be excellent running at defences, Cantwell who has grown as a player, Idah who is going to offer some physicality and goals too - and whoever can step up - and whoever we can bring in to strengthen. 

Also, Dowell is an upgrade on Stiepermann when it comes to cranking up dangerous shots from the edge / outside the box. That was an underrated strength of Stiepi in that he was arguably the only one willing to have a consistent go from a bit further out, and was a threat from it. Also, that made us a bit more unpredictable as then, as defenders, you're thinking "do I block the probable shot or stick with my man?"

With Stiepi, you pretty much know he's going to line one up if he can get it on his left.

[unique 435]

No.

[Indy 3,301]

Some really great posts and I’ll throw another point into the mix, Petrie post was really good, if we could add what he pointed out (I’d also add a good CB / DM Ajer possibly) like Lakey, we still have Cantwell, who lets be honest looked really good last premiership campaign, it’s important we hold on to him now, he could well grow into the next Maddison this year.

Edited June 10, 2021 by Indy

[Bradwell canary 109]

 NO 

[AJ 1,222]

6 minutes ago, Bradwell canary said:

 NO 

That is quite a compelling and thoughtful argument you've put across there!

[Essjayess 307]

Who really knows at this stage, time will tell. But the performance of a side in any season is down to so many different factors, not just whether Emi is at our club or not. Truth be told, ive not been sad or upset at all in seeing Emi leave, he gave us 3 great and mostly wonderful seasons but the  well being of the club  in general vastly outweighs one player leaving us, even  being one of the best ever to adorn the yellow shirt. The fee we have received for him has taken things to a complete new level for the club and im sure will be spent wisely.

For me, when the day comes  when either / both SW or DF leave us, then that day will be a real hard to get thru.