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Upo

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  1. Upo

    Wuhan coronavirus

    I feel sorry for you British folks. Elsewhere (outside Asia anyway) the governments are incompetent, reactionary, unnecessarily hopeless, and incremental to the point of negligence. But Britain is the only country in the world where the government says that the resulting fatalities of such reactionary incompetence is actually the goal. Sort of like, if I shoot you in the head, you can't die again. I believe this is the first case of a major government adopting a policy of assertive defeatism. I don't know what the median age of Pinkun forumers is, but I'm guessing it tilts towards middle age and male. Well, gentlemen over 65 with, or over 70 without, underlying illnesses: You catch COVID-19 and NHS has run out of tubes to pump air into your disintegrating lungs, you're looking at less than a Russian-roulette chance of making it out of Boris Johnson's grand experiment alive. Perhaps you should call your representatives to say that you'd like the government to not pull the plug on you just yet. It would be quite embarrassing for them if the policies that have worked in South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong, China would start working in European countries too. Why, you can almost see things starting to stabilize in Italy already. You are in my prayers.
  2. Lake district canary, I think your idea is reasonable, but I don't see that working if the postponement is more than a couple of months, 6 months at most. The logistical and contractual issues become prohibitive. Plus, players age, develop other issues, lose interest, some might die of infection. It wouldn't be the same teams. I recommend taking the generous approach of awarding 3 extra slots to the next season (when they start again) and then relegating 6 for the season after that - unless they want to keep the expanded league. That would give all the teams a fair opportunity to fight for PL position while staying in PL. It would also help lower leagues as their top clubs can get promoted to fill freed Championship slots. They could skip FA Cup for one season so the players don't get overwhelmed.
  3. Upo

    Leicester City Coronavirus

    I think the situation demand serious rethinking from UEFA. They should probably look at the financial disparities and figure out how to keep the leagues competitive: essentially redistribution. Also redistribution from men's football to women's. The percentages wouldn't need to be huge to be game changers for women and very helpful to small teams.
  4. I'd agree otherwise, but since it is likely that there aren't many other topics to discuss in the future - and it could be a while - there may not be need for it. The pandemic is simply too big an issue to talk about in one thread. Good posts and information just gets buried, because people don't read more than a page or two back.
  5. Upo

    Leicester City Coronavirus

    I really do not see how they could relegate teams with so many games to play and many teams in the relegation mix. The best solution is to bump top 2 or 3 teams up and then relegate 5 or 6. If it proves successful and the teams are competitive, maybe even keep the extra teams and only relegate the usual number. Atleast the PL should seriously consider that.
  6. There is reason to doubt China's numbers, but there is no doubt their response to the epidemic was unprecedented and effective. We would *know* if it was running out of control there. The country is too big to not. Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, even South Korea are examples of controlling the virus with less draconian measures than China took. Granted, South Korea got lucky with their infections being initially concentrated on small religious sect. The western world is not going to be able to contain this in the same way. Nordic countries are probably the best case scenario in terms of preparedness and strength of governments, as well as the trust population has on their leaders. So, follow Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Finland. That's the A team. For the alternative scenario, consult the Americans.
  7. Upo

    Leicester City Coronavirus

    They confirm COVID-19 infection on ANY player in the league, it is over for this year. It is just a matter of time. Any talk about playing behind closed doors is trying to cope with the inevitable. Be prepared that the only football you'll see in the next 12 to 18 months is reruns.
  8. Upo

    Match Analysis

    When you pit "just not good enough" against a detailed analysis backed by stats, always pick the analysis backed by stats vs hand-wringing. Even if it's not correct, you have the opportunity to learn something. Subjectively Norwich looked more dangerous with Drmic playing alongside Pukki. The second half of Sheffield game quite good for Norwich. Statistics support this firmly. Drmic had the highest xG at 0.9 (fbref) or whopping 1.73 (understat). Pukki, despite being widely criticized, only had xG of 0.3 (fbref) or 0.6 (understat). His underperformance is still probably within reasonable range compared to "dry" periods of other top strikers. It's annoying to see people whine about lack of quality when the problem is mostly lack of chances created. Most chances simply aren't nearly as good as Norwich fans think. Heck, even Pinkun staff is starting to ignore facts, to the extent they've now stopped counting Pukki's penalty goals (xG 0.76) as "real" goals and forgotten the stolen Tottenham goal, and calling for Pukki to be benched for Drmic (Who has the most chances missed by any player on the team, behind only Byram and Buendia ). I guess none of us are safe from the effects of frustration. I should probably call them out for this bit of silliness, as they've usually been on the point...if I have the time. Now the following is based on subjective observations: Play three CBs at the back when can. I have noticed time and again that Lewis is lacking confidence in going forward when facing pressure. When he loses confidence he no longer can perform even a throw in decisively. He becomes either a wet blanket or shaky. With confidence we have seen what he can do at the other end. Play two at the front. The opposition have for long been able to calculate how many Pukki runs they can let through without compromising their offence (one or two). Without Buendia they can feel secure from Pukki. With Drmic next to Teemu, they have more to calculate about. Drmic has the xGs of a striker (if not the goals yet), but it was Drmic's header what convinced me. It's not just the header. It's the headache for the opposition. Start Buendia always. Duda...I don't have the stats, but I just don't agree with the general sentiment about him. I saw him play 2nd half against Sheffield (missed 1st half) and he was quite good before getting tired towards the end. He has the talent. I don't think he is disinterested, more like confused a bit and has non-chalant air about him. I think he needs to find a way to work with Buendia. But that may take more time than we have at this point. His corner kicks and potential for crosses is what keeps him on my starting squad. Especially with Drmic there. Tettey is stabilizing force in midfield, but there is a problem with him that is ignored. He takes extremely low chance shots far outside the box, and occasionally spends time to look for that shot. People rate kicks from far way too probable to go in. They make great highlight reel, but are damaging if there are basically any alternatives.
  9. Upo

    6 goals in 15 away games...

    There is a connection between xG and reluctance to shoot from "any sort of distance". And that is because of the garbage xG of most shots out of box. xG = The statistical chance of an attempt to succeed compared to other similar attempts from the same position Basically, the average number of shots to score is about 10. That means there is 10% chance to score on any given random attempt on average. BUT. Outside the box those chances are 2-4% generally. And within the box it's 15 to 30% generally. A penalty kick has only xG of .8 (80% chance to succeed)! Which means it is FAR from a done deal. People just think it is. Just like people think that when Pukki gets the ball, he should score. But really the chances Pukki gets are the sort you have to try 3 to 4 times before you succeed. And because he gets like 1 such chance per game, it takes many games before he gets one in. He scored beautifully against Tottenham earlier, but we got VARed wrongly. But commentators, fans, hell even PinkUn journalists have apparently forgotten this and now are moaning about how Pukki "isn't himself". He needs more chances. Every striker has dry seasons, and the fewer the opportunities, the longer they last!
  10. Upo

    match thread

    Steady Eddie is Rupp's role. He wasn't brought in to blow away the Premier League. He was brought in as backstop multidimensional player with serious Champs quality, but has surpassed expectations and gets to play more than anybody would have expected him to. I rate him as a big success as a signing. Duda on the other hand we can reasonably expect to look comfortable at this level. Which he occasionally does seem. I think he's yet to find a good role because of the chaoticism of Buendia situation. Sometimes Buendia is there and fit. Sometimes he's not. Sometimes Buendia has attitude problems, sometimes Buendia is great. It is difficult to adjust to that. The problem I think is that Duda doesn't find Teemu like Buendia does. You are going to be sorely disappointed if you expect to replace Buendia with Duda or Rupp. In some ways Teemu's positioning IQ is so high that only Buendia can keep up with him, and sometimes McLean. Even Cantwell misses Teemu's position frequently. It is quite frustrating sometimes to watch the fraction of a second where Teemu steps back and becomes immediately available, but the other players don't notice that. Buendia is a genius in those moments and very nearly can read Pukki's mind expecting that fraction of a second.
  11. Upo

    6 goals in 15 away games...

    xG's very close to eachother. Sheffield 1.25, Norwich 1.33. It doesn't really tell about severe underperformance. Both were expected to score about 1 goal. They took their chance and we didn't. We've outperformed recently too. Against Leicester we had xG of 0.6 and they had 1,47. If you don't create opportunities, you can't take them either. Frankly I think people overrate Norwich's chances and their strength, either because they're fans or because Farkeball looks nice and Norwich likes to keep possession of the ball. People should look at the numbers and they are fairly clear over long term: Norwich is a team that would probably rank higher if it wasn't for the CB injury crisis. But not much higher. Edit: I should add that I'm a huge fan and like the way they play. But the statistics have shown that it is very easy to become biased. Sometimes even the commentators get caught up with how nice Norwich looks. And very nice it does look when things are working...
  12. Upo

    match thread

    I disagree about Rupp. Very strongly in fact. Duda I'm agnostic about. He confuses me, because at times you see his capabilities and he even creates an attempt, but then he sort of disappears. The second half today he was ok. His first half must have sucked judging by the hate.
  13. Upo

    match thread

    Boy the team must have performed terribly in the first 45 minutes, because not even Duda was that bad in the second half. Actually he looked rather good at times. It was Buendia really who I didn't see do much, but I assume he was tired. No excuse for his solution in the final minute. I liked Drmic. And Hanley was a beast.
  14. Wacky, on second thought this question is actually very good. Apologies for rushing to conclusions previously. (Hope no lasting bad feelings.) The death rate for those over 80 is certainly more than for those younger. That is the case for a normal seasonal flu, just like it is for Covid-19. If you look at the columns, it is easy to miss the decimal places, because the colums are very low. That chart is actually not very good for that reason. But if you look at the numbers, they tell you the same consistent story: That at any age bracket the mortality rate is about 10 times higher for Covid-19 than for seasonal flu. If you want to find out what the death rate for over 65 year olds is for Covid-19, you need to do a bit of calculations yourself and take a few educated guesses: First, you would need to know how many people are behind the mortality figures for the Covid-19 for all over 65 year olds. Then divide the total deaths in that group with all the infected in that group. It would probably involve quite a bit of investigating, which is why in this case when we are dealing with a magnitude (around 10x) difference between mortality rates, you can pretty much just deduce that the mortality rate for 65+ in covid-19 is at the very least higher than it is for the 60 to 69 bracket, because the mortality is consistently higher for older individuals. So I'll take an educational guess and state that over 65 year olds Covid-19 mortality is significantly higher than 60-65 year olds covid-19 mortality, certainly above 5% and probably closer to if not over 10%. Normally we can be somewhat sceptical of things that we see. You're right that not everything that is available comes without an agenda. That agenda may not always be malicious! Sometimes you are given information to reassure you, or perhaps even slightly scare you in order to drive the point home. The statistics shown in this chart don't seem to carry that kind of baggage however. It just simply states that Covid-19 is much more dangerous than a normal seasonal flu. As for me, I don't financially benefit from any of this. I am not asking you to sell your stocks and buy bitcoin or anything. I recommend heeding to official information, like the ready.gov/pandemic advice about being prepared for 2 weeks, and wash your hands carefully. I give you links to sources, so you don't think I'm the authority here. I'm not. My rhetoric is sharp and I don't really hedge my calls, because it's the internet and "may or may not be" approach demands a lengthy conversation around complex topics. Time is something we do not have in abundance. And because the cost of being ahead of the situation in both practical preparedness and psychological mindset is roughly £150 and maybe slight heartburn, you can be comforted that the downside is very limited for anyone following the advice. While not following the advice could make you somebody else's problem down the line. That is what I'm trying to prevent here.
  15. Sorry. I withdrew my post. Took you for something you were not. Honest question demands honest answer, which I didn't give you.
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