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Rich T The Biscuit

Remaining Fixtures

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I think it's fair to say that the Top 2 will now come from either us, Brentford, Swansea or Watford.

Therefore, I've had a quick look at who has who to play, appreciate there are no easy games in the league but there are some really interesting and key fixtures left to play.

Norwich - Brentford (H), Bournemouth (H), Watford (H), Reading (H), Barnsley (A)

Brentford - Norwich (A), Cardiff (H), Bournemouth (A), Watford (H)

Swansea - Bournemouth (A), Cardiff (H), Reading (A), Reading (A)

Watford - Bournemouth (A), Cardiff (A), Reading (H), Norwich (A), Brentford (A), Swansea (H).

I've only really taken in to consideration those teams in or close to play off but with a couple of good results Stoke and Boro could come in to play, we don't have either to play again, Brentford have Stoke next, Swansea have both to play in the next 3 games and Watford have Boro to play in a few weeks.

Because there are so many teams who still have play off chances, it's going to get interesting.

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Bristol City will have a say too. We have played them twice but are sure to improve Pearson in charge

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I'm hoping that Bristol City will take something at Swansea on Saturday - Swansea have looked shaky at home and are due a defeat there.

I doubt Brentford will have any more wobbles - we need to beat them next week.

Watford are strong. Belief has been their main problem but they seem to have got through that. That's the other game we need to win.

I'm very glad we've built up the 7 point gap to third, and of course if we keep winning no one can catch us anyway.

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Rich T posted

Brentford and Swansea both have Bristol City, Brentford as there last game and Swansea next.

This post makes no sense, can you be more precise

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Cardiff will be the kingmakers, good to have played them before they have turned the corner. 

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5 minutes ago, pete said:

Rich T posted

Brentford and Swansea both have Bristol City, Brentford as there last game and Swansea next.

This post makes no sense, can you be more precise

Oh dear.....just kidding.

What I meant is that Brentford and Swansea both still has Bristol City to play, we don't and neither do Watford.

Change in manager and still have the sights on play off means that they could be crucial/key games.

Brentford play Bristol City as their last fixture for the season, Swansea have Bristol City as their next game.

Make sense?

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I for one hope its all dusted and sealed before Oakwell on the final day of the season, Barnsley will sneak into the playoffs for me and I wouldn't wanna bank on us having to win there final day of the season to get promoted. 

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I've done a fair bit of analysis. Without going into the boring details of my algorithm, I project we will finish on 94 pts. That will be enough to win the league by about 6 pts. We've already played our hardest fixtures and other have not. We only need 8 more wins to be fairly certain of the championship, and definitely automatic promotion. The ultimate outcome is more dependent on our performances against the bottom-half teams. We don't actually need to beat any of our immediate rivals, although avoiding defeat would be ideal.

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On current away form (including goals scored) it would seem that Watford have a huge task to stay in contention. They need to hit the purplest (?)  of purple patches to achieve a top 2 finish. Can't see it at all.

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5 hours ago, Petriix said:

I've done a fair bit of analysis. Without going into the boring details of my algorithm, I project we will finish on 94 pts. That will be enough to win the league by about 6 pts. We've already played our hardest fixtures and other have not. We only need 8 more wins to be fairly certain of the championship, and definitely automatic promotion. The ultimate outcome is more dependent on our performances against the bottom-half teams. We don't actually need to beat any of our immediate rivals, although avoiding defeat would be ideal.

That look suspiciously like the Cummings/Gavin Williamson algorithm. But I like your one better 🙂

I had 95 points on my forecast (7 wins, 7 draws...and I hadn't been able to see a defeat).

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2 minutes ago, sonyc said:

That look suspiciously like the Cummings/Gavin Williamson algorithm. But I like your one better 🙂

I had 95 points on my forecast (7 wins, 7 draws...and I hadn't been able to see a defeat).

All looking good for a seat watching EPL games at CR next season, can’t wait 😁

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6 wins and 3 draws from the next 14 games will do it giving is 88 points. It would take a hell of downturn for us to lose it from here. 6 wins and 3 draws over 14 games would be our worst run of form throughout the season. For me the Watford and Brentford games are do not lose as opposed to must win

 

Edited by Christoph Stiepermann
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We're 67 points from 32 games, and our corresponding position two years ago was 60 points from 32 games, so we're 7 points ahead of where we were before. Though after that we went on a run of 8 straight wins and  finished with 10 wins and 4 draws from our final 14 games.

8 of our next 9 games are against the lower half of the table.

But it's Norwich so I'm sure there will more twists and turns and edge of the seat nail-biting stuff.

 

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17 hours ago, Rich T The Biscuit said:

Watford - Bournemouth (A), Cardiff (A), Reading (H), Norwich (A), Brentford (A), Swansea (H).

That's good news. Whatever happens they will be highly motivated to beat Brentford and Swansea, 

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20 hours ago, Rich T The Biscuit said:

I think it's fair to say that the Top 2 will now come from either us, Brentford, Swansea or Watford.

Therefore, I've had a quick look at who has who to play, appreciate there are no easy games in the league but there are some really interesting and key fixtures left to play.

Norwich - Brentford (H), Bournemouth (H), Watford (H), Reading (H), Barnsley (A)

Brentford - Norwich (A), Cardiff (H), Bournemouth (A), Watford (H)

Swansea - Bournemouth (A), Cardiff (H), Reading (A), Reading (A)

Watford - Bournemouth (A), Cardiff (A), Reading (H), Norwich (A), Brentford (A), Swansea (H).

I've only really taken in to consideration those teams in or close to play off but with a couple of good results Stoke and Boro could come in to play, we don't have either to play again, Brentford have Stoke next, Swansea have both to play in the next 3 games and Watford have Boro to play in a few weeks.

Because there are so many teams who still have play off chances, it's going to get interesting.

I think it’s fair to say that Swansea won’t appreciate playing Reading Away twice. 🧐

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16 hours ago, Norfolk Dan said:

Love an algorithm me. ...

Of all the Vice Presidents  I cant say he had exceptional rhythm. 🕺🏼

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There's a common assumption that the games we are more likely to win are those against teams towards the lower end of the table. I'm not sure I completely agree with this. I know our only recent (league) loss has been to Swansealona, but it's the scrappy, park the bus teams who are *desperate* to avoid relegation who can prove difficult to beat, and have done for us in the past. It was even true last season. We could beat Man City and draw with Leicester, but got clearly beaten by Villa twice.

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18 hours ago, Crabbycanary3 said:

On current away form (including goals scored) it would seem that Watford have a huge task to stay in contention. They need to hit the purplest (?)  of purple patches to achieve a top 2 finish. Can't see it at all.

As a watford fan we have hit form. Since new boss came in we have not conceded first in 12 consecutive games. And we are now unbeaten away in our last 5 away games. Winning 3 and drawing 2. Its 2015 all over again, we didnt enter an automatic place until 3 games to go. We are 4 points ahead of that season and recently look like a proper team. We finished on 89 points in 2015.

Edited by Moosebadge

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32 minutes ago, Moosebadge said:

As a watford fan we have hit form. Since new boss came in we have not conceded first in 12 consecutive games. And we are now unbeaten away in our last 5 away games. Winning 3 and drawing 2. Its 2015 all over again, we didnt enter an automatic place until 3 games to go. We are 4 points ahead of that season and recently look like a proper team. We finished on 89 points in 2015.

My school of thought is that of the 3 chasing us it's Watford that worry me the most.

You have all 3 of the others in the Top 4 to play so can make a huge difference to who does finish in the Top 2.

Having said that if you lose all 3 then it's play offs for you so just demonstrates how tight it will be.

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We beat you, drew with Brentford and lost to Swansea previously. I think we may lose tomorrow. I am not to bothered if we do, the aim has to be to win 10 of last 14, we won 8 and drew 3 of our last 14 games so short of this by 3 points. But have seen a massive improvement in last 4 games. I see it as a shoot out between us and Brentford for 2nd. I dont think you will wobble although we pulled back the same amount of points on Bournemouth in 2015. Although still finished 2nd.

Edited by Moosebadge

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