Corona Virus main thread

[Well b back 3,216]

Ah just seen the news that explains things. Sit I was on was WS2 and when I just came back there were testing sites everywhere that had suddenly appeared, makes sense now testing for the variant.

[Van wink 2,994]

33 minutes ago, Well b back said:

That’s what I thought, thanks.

Indeed Andrew Pollards comments were ‘ South Africa and Brazilian variants are more difficult ‘. For those on the COS thread though, always best to wait, and not even try to read into those comments.

Professor Adam Finn, a member of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, has said the vaccines currently deployed across the UK are effective against the South African variant.

"It is clear from the evidence that we have got so far that that is still the case," he told BBC Radio 4's The World at One.

"It may be the case that they are just slightly less efficient than they are against the original Wuhan virus, but doesn't mean that they are not useful.

[Barbe bleu 827]

20 hours ago, Van wink said:

I have read this and am interested in your view. I’m certainly familiar with the concept of bacterial resistance to antibiotics, what you are talking about is a similar sort of principle but with a virus. I am fully aware that bacteria and virus and completely different organisms but just using the comparison by way of illustration. I don’t fully follow the argument, even with a well developed immune response it will still be possible to get infected so in theory that is a reservoir for even more super viruses that can find their way around moderately high immunity, Is lethal mutation merely a theoretical possibility or something found often in the real world?

I'm no biologist but my understanding is that the antibiotic resistance analogy is fairly sound.  We take a full course of antibiotics because if we do half a job all that does is clear out the bacteria with the least resistance to the tablet and leave space for the hardier varieties that then go on to infect others.  Do this enough and eventually a strain that has almost very high or perfect resistance will eventually emerge 

In virus terms if we get the body into a stalemate with the virus for a long  time the pressure will be on the virus to select and multiply strains that are most able to avoid our vaccine  prepped immune response.  long, drawn out battles between body and virus are what we need to avoid.

[Well b back 3,216]

28 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

I'm no biologist but my understanding is that the antibiotic resistance analogy is fairly sound.  We take a full course of antibiotics because if we do half a job all that does is clear out the bacteria with the least resistance to the tablet and leave space for the hardier varieties that then go on to infect others.  Do this enough and eventually a strain that has almost very high or perfect resistance will eventually emerge 

In virus terms if we get the body into a stalemate with the virus for a long  time the pressure will be on the virus to select and multiply strains that are most able to avoid our vaccine  prepped immune response.  long, drawn out battles between body and virus are what we need to avoid.

Don’t know if this helps, but it is believed the B1.1.7. Variant came from a person in hospital in Kent that took several weeks to shake the live virus off and it found the opportunity to mutate over and over again.

 

[ricardo 7,395]

National

18607 - 406

Local

Weekend reporting but up 100k week on week

[It's Character Forming 1,161]

I think the difference between an antibiotic and a vaccine is that an antibiotic is basically zapping the bacteria direct, whereas a vaccine is boosting your body's own immune system so it's fully prepped and ready to fight the virus itself.

 

If you don't complete a course of antibiotics, you're left with the bacteria that have survived in your body, which will then re-start multiplying and your body is no more capable of fighting it.

 

WIth a vaccine, it is boosting the immune system for enough people which helps to bring the R number for the virus below one, meaning it then ceases to spread through the population and dies out.  However, the virus may mutate into a version that the vaccine is less effective against.

 

This is why it seems to me really important we now impose a proper quarantine on everyone coming into the country (i.e. hotel-based quarantine for everyone) except lorry drivers who have to have a negative test (we still need to import food etc so have to accept we can't quarantine them) and we need to push on with our vaccine programme to get to the point where the virus numbers are right down - we can't start to relax when we get to 15m vaccinated or whatever.

 

I assume it won't be possible to eliminate it completely and there will be a level left in circulation like flu ?

[Rock The Boat 1,332]

3 hours ago, Herman said:

I've never met a nice South African. 😀

Nelson Mandela? Or do you literally mean 'met'?

[Essjayess 307]

4 hours ago, Van wink said:

Sounds like we have two community cases of SA variant in Surrey, worrying to say the least.

These new variants, wherever they originally formed, are sure to go thru most populations in most nations im sure. I recall in December, when the EU virtually did all they could to isolate contact with UK because of the UK Variant, only now to have the Brazilian variant sweeping thru Portugal who seem to be at a very high peak status that we were at some weeks back. I find it almost impossible to  believe that the variant now in Portugal will not at some stage get a toehold  then spread thru Spain.

Nothing can really prepare any nation for a new variant, especially once it passes the "few isolated cases" stage and gets into the general populus. We here in the UK are one of the first nations to have experienced it and now at last starting to see decreases in cases and deaths and admissions to hospital. Bad as it is to experience and suffer this, the UK now has experience with a new variant and has dealt with it as best it can, so if nothing else its invaluable knowledge.

I fear many nations  will have to go thru this angst in the coming months ahead.

[Indy 3,301]

45 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

These new variants, wherever they originally formed, are sure to go thru most populations in most nations im sure. I recall in December, when the EU virtually did all they could to isolate contact with UK because of the UK Variant, only now to have the Brazilian variant sweeping thru Portugal who seem to be at a very high peak status that we were at some weeks back. I find it almost impossible to  believe that the variant now in Portugal will not at some stage get a toehold  then spread thru Spain.

Nothing can really prepare any nation for a new variant, especially once it passes the "few isolated cases" stage and gets into the general populus. We here in the UK are one of the first nations to have experienced it and now at last starting to see decreases in cases and deaths and admissions to hospital. Bad as it is to experience and suffer this, the UK now has experience with a new variant and has dealt with it as best it can, so if nothing else its invaluable knowledge.

I fear many nations  will have to go thru this angst in the coming months ahead.

I’ve not seen any link to say the current vaccine will have zero effect to the new variant, in fact quite the opposite. If the need requires all labs are already build up potential fast response vaccines based on the current vaccines.

These are viruses are not bacterial infections and the vaccines train the immune system to recognise the markers and deal with the virus. Mutations normally have the same key indicators so are easier to deal with that bacterial mutations which become hardened to any antibiotics.

Though we don’t want any strains mutations, the sooner we all get the vaccines around globe the sooner this will become less of a threat.

[How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,189]

1 hour ago, Rock The Boat said:

Nelson Mandela? Or do you literally mean 'met'?

It's a  reference to a  Spitting Image sketch/song....if my memory isn't letting me down 

EDIT - memory intact!

 

Edited February 1, 2021 by How I Wrote Elastic Man

[Barbe bleu 827]

Sorry I am not suggesting that antibiotic resistance and vaccine escape are the same  and indy makes the valid observation that an antibiotic cannot adapt in the same way our immune  system does.

But as an analogy it does work. In either scenario the Immune immune system will be able to destroy the weaker or most recognised variants quicker than those with which it has only a passing acquaintance. This puts an evolutionary pressure on the pathogen that makes the virus better able to resist our bodies attempts to kill it off. Thats fine if the virus becomes completely overwhelmed and cleared but bad if it just lingers there in an beefed up form that looking for more victims

[Barbe bleu 827]

3 hours ago, Well b back said:

Don’t know if this helps, but it is believed the B1.1.7. Variant came from a person in hospital in Kent that took several weeks to shake the live virus off and it found the opportunity to mutate over and over again.

 

Not surprised to read this.   This person sounds like a sparring partner for a heavy weight, a chance to see what works and what doesn't before moving on to harder opponents.

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

5 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Sorry I am not suggesting that antibiotic resistance and vaccine escape are the same  and indy makes the valid observation that an antibiotic cannot adapt in the same way our immune  system does.

But as an analogy it does work. In either scenario the Immune immune system will be able to destroy the weaker or most recognised variants quicker than those with which it has only a passing acquaintance. This puts an evolutionary pressure on the pathogen that makes the virus better able to resist our bodies attempts to kill it off. Thats fine if the virus becomes completely overwhelmed and cleared but bad if it just lingers there in an beefed up form that looking for more victims

It's just natural selection in both cases.

In a bacteria some genetic mutations (and they do mutate) in the millions around might give some a better antibiotic resistance - and then these are more likely to survive and prosper  -  becoming dominant in any populations where the antibiotics are at work. The reason medics insist you finish properly any dose of antibiotics is that those bugs that are showing some resistance (think of it as a poison) need to be finished off and not allowed to survive to become the dominant mutation. 

The virus in this respect is no different except it's against a vaccine (or actually an induced immune response) - a mutation may give it an edge over a vaccine and again be more likely to survive and the be dominant.

It's an evolutionary arms war in both cases!

Natural selection in both cases.

[Well b back 3,216]

Prayers with Captain Tom, but the latest update does not sound promising.

Captain Sir Tom Moore's family are with him in hospital after he was admitted with coronavirus, the hospital has said.

The 100-year-old, who raised almost £33m for the NHS, was taken to Bedford Hospital on Sunday after requiring help with his breathing.

In a statement released with his daughters' consent, Bedford Hospital said it continued to care for him.

"At this time, members of Captain Tom's family are with him," it added.

The statement concluded with a request for "space and privacy" for relatives.

Capt Sir Tom had been treated for pneumonia over the past few weeks and last week tested positive for Covid-19, his daughter, Hannah Ingram-Moore, said on Twitter on Sunday.

She added he needed help with his breathing and was being treated on a ward, but not in ICU.

Bedford Hospital states on its website that visitors are not permitted due to current restrictions, unless there are exceptional circumstances.

[Rock The Boat 1,332]

7 hours ago, How I Wrote Elastic Man said:

It's a  reference to a  Spitting Image sketch/song....if my memory isn't letting me down 

EDIT - memory intact!

 

Thanks, I didn't know the cultural reference.

Apologies to other posters for cluttering up this thread with non-covid stuff.

[A Load of Squit 5,170]

14 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

Nelson Mandela? Or do you literally mean 'met'?

Whoooooosh!

 

[Van wink 2,994]

Interesting discussion, the point of my original question was to try and look a bit further into the increased potential for mutation re our two dose strategy, as raised in the BMA letter? What is the evidence for their concern, we have taken a risk based approach balancing risk of vaccine associated mutation against the benefit of wider and faster initial community vaccination. To do the risk analysis it’s useful, to say the least, to have some data, just wondering if there was anything out there that people were aware of. Thanks for the input re B 1.1.7 WBB.

Edited February 2, 2021 by Van wink

[Van wink 2,994]

Looks like some proper old fashioned public health going on trying to track down contacts and cases of SA variant. Tough job, probably tip of the iceberg that we can see atm.

[Herman 9,779]

Some interesting and optimistic data from an Israeli scientist, Elan Segal. His pinned tweet explains it if you have a spare moment. 

[Van wink 2,994]

1 hour ago, Herman said:

Some interesting and optimistic data from an Israeli scientist, Elan Segal. His pinned tweet explains it if you have a spare moment. 

Where is that? 

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Now they have to track the variant of the Kent variant.

[Herman 9,779]

12 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Where is that? 

@segal_eran

[horsefly 4,301]

The Kent variant mutation

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coronavirus/mutation-of-kent-variant-detected-in-samples-could-help-virus-evade-immune-system/ar-BB1djFht?ocid=msedgntp

Edited February 2, 2021 by horsefly

[Van wink 2,994]

 

2 minutes ago, horsefly said:

The Kent variant mutation

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coronavirus/mutation-of-kent-variant-detected-in-samples-could-help-virus-evade-immune-system/ar-BB1djFht?ocid=msedgntp

If we keep looking for changes we are undoubtedly going to find them, that’s all good, the more data we have the better. Just need to keep a bit of perspective. 

[Indy 3,301]

I had a good chat with my Swedish side of my family and interesting comment, “Humanity is a virus on the world and Mother Nature is finding way to control the spread before it kill her” 

“I have to say the more you view it like that the more you think maybe that’s true, maybe we’re not supposed to fight it as nearly 8 billion people are utterly killing the planet, maybe we need to take control of the global population and not have three or four kids, maybe we just need to start to restrict the population growth everywhere or just allow the virus to do its job!”

After this I can’t really argue with this view, the more I tried the more he’s correct!

[The Real Buh 3,444]

14 minutes ago, Indy said:

I had a good chat with my Swedish side of my family and interesting comment, “Humanity is a virus on the world and Mother Nature is finding way to control the spread before it kill her” 

“I have to say the more you view it like that the more you think maybe that’s true, maybe we’re not supposed to fight it as nearly 8 billion people are utterly killing the planet, maybe we need to take control of the global population and not have three or four kids, maybe we just need to start to restrict the population growth everywhere or just allow the virus to do its job!”

After this I can’t really argue with this view, the more I tried the more he’s correct!

When the forest grows too big a wildfire is inevitable

[Indy 3,301]

Just now, The Real Buh said:

When the forest grows too big a wildfire is inevitable

I must admit the Swedes certainly don’t have the same outlook on death as we do here! We tend to try and save everyone regardless of quality of life for the individual.

But true, regardless of Covid there’s more to come.

[It's Character Forming 1,161]

12 minutes ago, Indy said:

I had a good chat with my Swedish side of my family and interesting comment, “Humanity is a virus on the world and Mother Nature is finding way to control the spread before it kill her” 

“I have to say the more you view it like that the more you think maybe that’s true, maybe we’re not supposed to fight it as nearly 8 billion people are utterly killing the planet, maybe we need to take control of the global population and not have three or four kids, maybe we just need to start to restrict the population growth everywhere or just allow the virus to do its job!”

After this I can’t really argue with this view, the more I tried the more he’s correct!

The trouble with this viewpoint Indy is that back in the Middle Ages, the Black Death killed somewhere around 1/3rd of the entire population of Europe.  It took time for the population level to recover, but of course it's now many times larger than it was then.

 

To see a big reduction in the current human population, you're either looking at a long term managed process, or human intervention (nukes or a genetically engineered plague) or societal collapse.  And unless its a conscious and managed process by humanity as a whole, the other options would be horrific.

[Indy 3,301]

Just now, It's Character Forming said:

The trouble with this viewpoint Indy is that back in the Middle Ages, the Black Death killed somewhere around 1/3rd of the entire population of Europe.  It took time for the population level to recover, but of course it's now many times larger than it was then.

 

To see a big reduction in the current human population, you're either looking at a long term managed process, or human intervention (nukes or a genetically engineered plague) or societal collapse.  And unless its a conscious and managed process by humanity as a whole, the other options would be horrific.

But looking at the way in 30 years we’ve killed 40 % of the eco system the balance and chances of something more catastrophic happening is shortening. My cousin lives north of Stockholm and they certainly have a different view.

[The Real Buh 3,444]

4 minutes ago, Indy said:

I must admit the Swedes certainly don’t have the same outlook on death as we do here! We tend to try and save everyone regardless of quality of life for the individual.

But true, regardless of Covid there’s more to come.

It’s a nasty thing to think about but it is what it is. There’s too many of us and it’s cocking the planet up big time in one way or another. I have literally no viable solutions to this problem and nobody in power wants to acknowledge it.