Corona Virus main thread

[Van wink 2,994]

9 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

One other fear from scientists is that the longer the non third world goes without vaccine, the greater the chance of one if not more variations developing.

Absolutely, every time the virus passes from one person to another it has an opportunity to mutate, and it will do frequently but most of the time it’s not significant. The only way to lessen the risks from mutations is to reduce global community spread. Would be great to see big Pharma following the lead of AZ and supplying vaccine on a not for profit basis, fat chance though I suspect.

 

 

 

 

 

[Barbe bleu 827]

34 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

No surprise that Zoe app saying daily positive decrease is slowing. Just 2 or 3 weeks ago we had daily positives of over 50k  every day almost, even over 60k a couple times. This past week its  been consistently in the 20ks so thats a huge 25-30k drop in  a short time span, its only natural that decreases cannot  keep up that level of drop, we would be zero positives within  2 or 3 weeks.

Next hopeful sign would be to see daily deaths averaging under 1k each day, hoping thats not to far away now.

The max positive teats in a day was 81,542 on 28 December. Obviously a lot if catching up on that one but got to over 60k five times in January and was banging on the 50k door before Christmas.

In that context the reduction is very rapid

[Barbe bleu 827]

10 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Absolutely, every time the virus passes from one person to another it has an opportunity to mutate, and it will do frequently but most of the time it’s not significant. The only way to lessen the risks from mutations is to reduce global community spread. Would be great to see big Pharma following the lead of AZ and supplying vaccine on a not for profit basis, fat chance though I suspect.

Obviously the more the virus is out there the more chance there is of a lethal mutation but I think the big fear and the main reason for concern over our extended jab window is with people who can mount a semi effective immune response.  In these people the virus gets a proving ground in which only the most robust varieties can survive.

[Well b back 3,216]

27 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

One other fear from scientists is that the longer the non third world goes without vaccine, the greater the chance of one if not more variations developing.

Andrew Pollard said this morning that they have all moved on and are already working out new vaccines by predicting what might happen. He also said for Oxford, South Africa and Brazil are a bit more concerning.
I don’t mean to keep going to the Israeli data, but they are terrified of a variant getting in. 

[Van wink 2,994]

11 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Obviously the more the virus is out there the more chance there is of a lethal mutation but I think the big fear and the main reason for concern over our extended jab window is with people who can mount a semi effective immune response.  In these people the virus gets a proving ground in which only the most robust varieties can survive.

I have read this and am interested in your view. I’m certainly familiar with the concept of bacterial resistance to antibiotics, what you are talking about is a similar sort of principle but with a virus. I am fully aware that bacteria and virus and completely different organisms but just using the comparison by way of illustration. I don’t fully follow the argument, even with a well developed immune response it will still be possible to get infected so in theory that is a reservoir for even more super viruses that can find their way around moderately high immunity, Is lethal mutation merely a theoretical possibility or something found often in the real world?

[Van wink 2,994]

22 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Andrew Pollard said this morning that they have all moved on and are already working out new vaccines by predicting what might happen. He also said for Oxford, South Africa and Brazil are a bit more concerning.
I don’t mean to keep going to the Israeli data, but they are terrified of a variant getting in. 

Presumably with existing immunity a jab to fight a new mutant strain would be a single booster? The great advantage we enjoy now is the genome identification and surveillance capability that we  have.

Edited January 31, 2021 by Van wink

[Well b back 3,216]

If I may interrupt the disagreements for an hour, it has just been announced Captain Sir Tom Moore is in hospital with Coronavirus.

I wish him a speedy recovery.

[Well b back 3,216]

Before we have any conspiracy theories he had not had the vaccine due to medication he was taking for pneumonia.

[Well b back 3,216]

The full announcement.

https://twitter.com/captaintommoore?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1355924707816726532|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fuk-england-beds-bucks-herts-55881508

 

[paul moy 235]

4 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

Each member state had control over their procurement numb nuts. They chose to do it en bloc but some nations have also made other arrangements.

How about our death rate that is far higher than any other nation in Europe? Forgotten that? 1200 yesterday. The vaccine is not going to help anyone in hospital.

How often can you be wrong......  🤗🤣

[A Load of Squit 5,170]

1 minute ago, paul moy said:

How often can you be wrong......  🤗🤣

In your case it's every time you post something.

 

[The Real Buh 3,444]

Bloody hell!!.

Captain Tom has to come through this. Come on !!

[Well b back 3,216]

29 minutes ago, paul moy said:

How often can you be wrong......  🤗🤣

Do you have no respect ? A national hero needs good wishes, get back to disagreements later.

[Icecream Snow 761]

1 hour ago, paul moy said:

How often can you be wrong......  🤗🤣

.......it's pretty easy to prove keelansgrandad correct on this one

https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-coronavirus-vaccine-struggle-pfizer-biontech-astrazeneca/

[ricardo 7,395]

32 minutes ago, Icecream Snow said:

.......it's pretty easy to prove keelansgrandad correct on this one

https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-coronavirus-vaccine-struggle-pfizer-biontech-astrazeneca/

Those that made separate arrangements got their fingers wrapped. Merkel even got her health Minister to write a grovelling letter of apology to UVL.

While we ploughed money into development and production the EU wasted time haggling on price, underfunding development and arguing about liability. Heads should roll but they won't because there is no-one to weild the axe.

[Icecream Snow 761]

7 hours ago, ricardo said:

http://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-rejected-contracts-and-a-hollywood-movie-how-uk-struck-deal-to-guarantee-vaccine-supply-12204044

I think the interesting point is that AstraZeneca didn't have any experience in making vaccines prior to the deal, and that they were selected to partner Oxford instead of US company Merck, to help secure a guaranteed supply of the vaccine for the UK. Which is understandable from a UK perspective, but makes the EU decisions even weirder.

The UK seems to have had a much better read of the situation than the EU, that this was going to be a global scrap for limited resources, and that the US firms would prioritise the US market first. The EU driving the price down to get cheaper prices than the US market arguably backfired as it gives Pfizer/Moderna etc less incentive to ship to the EU if the US market is more lucrative.

The EU negotiations seem to just be a central purchasing scheme, leaving the individual EU states to work out the distribution, so according to the Politico article Holland didn't buy the freezers needed to store the rMna vaccines.

So when the EU is shouting about reduced schedules from Pfizer and Moderna (assuming they're focussing on the US market), and the volumes that AstraZeneca haven't hit (because they hadn't manufactured a vaccine before, and have obligations to the UK) I can't help wonder why it wasn't obvious to them that this situation would occur?

Edited January 31, 2021 by Icecream Snow

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

2 hours ago, paul moy said:

How often can you be wrong......  🤗🤣

Thats your normal response when you are wrong and evidence is presented.

 

[A Load of Squit 5,170]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55879345

The EU says UK-Swedish drug firm AstraZeneca will now supply an additional nine million Covid vaccine doses by March, after days of criticism of the bloc's vaccination programme.

Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said it was a "step forward".

But the 40m doses now expected are still only about half of what had been hoped, amid continuing supply problems.

Looks like this could be a case of the ends justify the means.

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/the end justifies the means#:~:text=—used to say that a,to get their candidate elected.

 

 

[Well b back 3,216]

To all those that have had one dose of a vaccine to date.

Please be careful, the BBC report about the vaccine being so effective ( Pfizer ) in Israel is technically correct, however those figures are after those people have had their second dose for at least 2 weeks. 
I appreciate it is good to get good news out, but if you have one dose those figures do not apply to you, please be careful and don’t catch it now.

[Well b back 3,216]

Another bit of good news being made a little to good is the care homes. Our strategy of one dose is well supported, however there will be incidents when reality gets in the way, care homes being one of those. People are asking why they can’t visit their relatives in care homes if they have been vaccinated and of course it is because of the strategy. Unfortunately care homes are one of the groups that do not come out so well in the delayed dose groups.

[ricardo 7,395]

Another three Vax centres opening up in Norfolk

Kings Lynn

North Walsham

Attleboro

Should help reduce travel distance for many.👍

[Van wink 2,994]

Sounds like we have two community cases of SA variant in Surrey, worrying to say the least.

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

59 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Sounds like we have two community cases of SA variant in Surrey, worrying to say the least.

Yes - Don't we get the preliminary efficacy tests on this per AZ this week ? WBB will know 🙂

It just means that we need to maintain the lockdown even more so  - being already vaccinated is absolutely no excuse for breaking any rules.

 

Edited February 1, 2021 by Yellow Fever

[CANARYKING 639]

The is a post on TWTD that quotes the BBC saying that one in five care home workers are refusing a jab, tried to find it but no luck, if this is true God help us.

[Herman 9,779]

1 hour ago, Van wink said:

Sounds like we have two community cases of SA variant in Surrey, worrying to say the least.

I've never met a nice South African. 😀

[Well b back 3,216]

1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

Yes - Don't we get the preliminary efficacy tests on this per AZ this week ? WBB will know 🙂

It just means that we need to maintain the lockdown even more so  - being already vaccinated is absolutely no excuse for breaking any rules.

 

Andrew Pollard said end of this week, I believe. In the things I saw today Pfizer and Moderna hadn’t either, but I could have sworn I saw effective, but a little less than 95 %.

[Van wink 2,994]

1 hour ago, Herman said:

I've never met a nice South African. 😀

You never put a better bit of Botha on your knife 

[Van wink 2,994]

Just now, Well b back said:

Andrew Pollard said end of this week, I believe. In the things I saw today Pfizer and Moderna hadn’t either, but I could have sworn I saw effective, but a little less than 95 %.

I saw something from Pfizer a few days ago, reduce efficacy but essentially worked, I’m more worried about the AZ type vaccine 

[Well b back 3,216]

1 hour ago, CANARYKING said:

The is a post on TWTD that quotes the BBC saying that one in five care home workers are refusing a jab, tried to find it but no luck, if this is true God help us.

I will find it not sure of the figure, but there was a number that refused it. I believe somebody suggested that they would fire them, but I believe you could only do that with new starters.

[Well b back 3,216]

Just now, Van wink said:

I saw something from Pfizer a few days ago, reduce efficacy but essentially worked, I’m more worried about the AZ type vaccine 

That’s what I thought, thanks.

Indeed Andrew Pollards comments were ‘ South Africa and Brazilian variants are more difficult ‘. For those on the COS thread though, always best to wait, and not even try to read into those comments.