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horsefly

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horsefly last won the day on September 30

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  1. The essence of a Trump supporter.
  2. Yes indeed! Even the government agrees. Frankly I think the measures required really do need to be dictated by the scientists and health authorities. All we can do is conduct ourselves according to strict measures of hygene (masks, handwashing etc) and hope that enables a less restrictive regime. But also key to any strategy has to be getting an efficient track and trace system in place. It ain't going to be a barrel of laughs for quite some time.
  3. There is only one strategy now that the virus is endemic. That's to ensure the NHS is capable of dealing with the number of hospitalizations caused by the virus. The debate then centres on what suppressing measures are required. Those measures will be determined by the levels of infection, so could involve local lockdowns, circuit breaks or whatever. This will be on-going until we get an effective vaccine. Sadly that's where we are at.
  4. If you had bothered reading the posts properly you will know we have been discussing herd-immunity. Herd-immunity is only possible if a certain percentage of the population is infected (susceptibilty is a different issue).
  5. This simply doesn't fit the facts of what happened in South Korea. If you have a reference to a scientific paper that says otherwise please do provide a link. Everything I've seen says it was an extremely efficient track and trace system coupled with rigid self-isolation that proved successful. There is a reason why they designated it a novel virus.
  6. How do we know that? (certainly isn't what SAGE is saying)
  7. I think the relevant point is that we don't know yet whether a vaccine or prior infection will provide long term immunity to this novel virus.
  8. Spot on Sonyc! That's what makes the failure to implement any of the recommendations of Exercise Cygnus such a scandal. The virus is now endemic in the UK and we can now only react to it with suppressing measures. A vaccine now remains our only genuine hope of a return to "normality". ON that note I begin participating in a vaccine trial this Friday, so will update on that if anything interesting arises.
  9. I'm afraid that's just plain wrong. They did not have prior herd immunity to Covid-19. That's why it is called a novel virus. You can't be immune to a virus that hasn't previously existed.
  10. Absolutely! But that's precisely why the NHS has to be protected from being overwhelmed. If it does collapse under the weight of Covid hospitalization then the numbers of people dying of the other conditions you mention will sky-rocket. Virus suppressing measures are required precisely to enable other normal health interventions to continue.
  11. oops! sorry to repeat you, but then again I think it's a point that can't be repeated enough. It is THE driver of government policy.
  12. Sadly people just don't get it do they! Even if we were to put aside the moral issues about allowing such a calamatous death toll (which obviously we shouldn't) the fundamental point is that the NHS simply collapses under that level of hospitalization. And that collapse entails a massive increase in deaths from all the other causes that they will be unable to treat. I suppose we could adopt the 14th century practice of confining victims alone in their homes until they suffocate. Perhaps there will be a few volunteers here who will walk the streets with a bell yelling "Bring out your dead".
  13. There are many figures being posted regarding the percentage fatality rate and I'm sure we all find ourselves drawn to the one that fits our argument best. But there really is only one figure that is fundamentally important at the moment and that's how many people require hospitalization as a result of Covid infection. It is this figure which determines whether the NHS can cope or will crash. And it is this figure that determines what supressing measures are required.
  14. After seeing professor Gupta's very poor performance on Question Time I was left totally unconvinced of her claims as indeed are most scientists working in the field. Back in May she claimed: "...the coronavirus pandemic is "on its way out" of Britain after infecting as much as half the population." "Professor Sunetra Gupta says there would be a "strong possibility" that pubs, nightclubs and restaurants in Britain could reopen without serious risk from COVID-19. ...Asked for her updated ratio, Prof Gupta said the epidemic had "largely come and is on its way out in this country" and that the rate would be "definitely less than one in 1000 and probably closer to one in 10,000", or between 0.1 percent and 0.01 percent." https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1285638/bbc-question-time-fiona-bruce-latest-uk-lockdown-coronavirus-camilla-tominey I fail to see how her analysis has in any way been borne out by the subsequesnt progress of the virus. I suggest she visits the covid wards up North if she thinks the epidemic has "largely come and gone".
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