Corona Virus main thread

[Barbe bleu 826]

6 minutes ago, Mark .Y. said:

Did you see the post I put up some time ago from the Italian CMO who said that when they reinvestigated Covid-19 deaths, they found "only" 12% of them were directly attributable to the virus.

Still a shocking waste of life, I know, but a far lower number than any "righty", "lefty" or other kind of newspaper wants to show, I can only assume because it is not as shocking as talking about 55,000 deaths so wouldn't sell as many copies

I missed that post.   Can you point to it again?

[sonyc 5,517]

6 minutes ago, Mark .Y. said:

Did you see the post I put up some time ago from the Italian CMO who said that when they reinvestigated Covid-19 deaths, they found "only" 12% of them were directly attributable to the virus.

Still a shocking waste of life, I know, but a far lower number than any "righty", "lefty" or other kind of newspaper wants to show, I can only assume because it is not as shocking as talking about 55,000 deaths so wouldn't sell as many copies

 

[sonyc 5,517]

For those who like looking at numbers and commentary...

https://99-percent.org/what-would-be-a-good-result-for-the-uks-death-toll/

 

 

[Van wink 2,994]

1 hour ago, BigFish said:

I'll give you the new cases, I think my source (a former Director of WHO) misattributed daily for weekly, so I guess you think 20k new cases a week is a great success. As for "fake news", there seems a lot of it about (and the 50k deaths stands up)......

Shocking new research shows UK's coronavirus death toll could really be over 50,000 from those lefties at the Express

There may have already been 55,000 deaths relating to coronavirus in the UK at a ‘cautious estimate’, experts have said  from the lefties at Metro

UK death toll from virus becomes highest in Europe from those lefties at the FT

I disgree that we should cut this feckless, lazy, unprepared and incompetent government slack now. It is time to call this out now, while it could still make a difference, while people are being killed by mistakes.

Why are people still persisting with these unverified comparisons, it has been pointed out many times that you are trying to compare apples and oranges, which is fine if you are interested in fruit of course, or a fruitcake, but not an epidemiologist.

[BigFish 1,986]

19 minutes ago, sonyc said:

 

Ah that lefty Chris Giles of the FT........

[Bill 1,788]

The real point is not if we know the exact numbers of deaths, but could any of them have been avoided. This has been a monumental; failure. And one that points to a reasoned thought that yes, many will have died through a combination of warped priorities managed by incompetent politicians.

From failing to lockdown much earlier, to not having adequate supplies of PPE and messing up testing it has been a shambles with tragic consequences. Ones that are still ongoing.

How many tests were purchased from China only to have to be returned - just as 400,000 items of PPE from Turkey ?

All overseen by a clueless bu ll****ter who would rather a photo op outside number 10 than attending vital COBRA meetings. And when the real threat began to emerge took 12 days off to sort out his private life which was in a similar mess to his political life - both due to an inability to stop himself from consistently lying.

However, the real fault lies with those who thought it would be any better with a PM who has a string of costly failures - and sackings behind him.  That is has taken the tens of thousands of deaths to finally expose this latter day Falstaff is a deep shame that hangs on  a great part of the populace

[sonyc 5,517]

https://www.studyfinds.org/study-patients-low-in-vitamin-d-twice-as-likely-to-develop-severe-covid-19-symptoms/?amp#click=https://t.co/m8fUkmHFHr

Having listened to Radio 4 item earlier today I have read a lot more and felt this article was interesting (too long to paste in full and annoyingly full of adverts) but it may be useful for people to make the most of sunlight / take Vitamin D  supplement. There are lots of research papers too linking D with other supposed factors associated. Worth a read imo.

 

[Van wink 2,994]

6 minutes ago, sonyc said:

https://www.studyfinds.org/study-patients-low-in-vitamin-d-twice-as-likely-to-develop-severe-covid-19-symptoms/?amp#click=https://t.co/m8fUkmHFHr

Having listened to Radio 4 item earlier today I have read a lot more and felt this article was interesting (too long to paste in full and annoyingly full of adverts) but it may be useful for people to make the most of sunlight / take Vitamin D  supplement. There are lots of research papers too linking D with other supposed factors associated. Worth a read imo.

 

Been using the Vitamin D throat spray for a few weeks now, read an article about the the links between Vit D and the immune system some time ago, precautionary, but why not.

[Aggy 755]

One big cause of vitamin d deficiency is obesity - which has also been linked to coronavirus deaths. Interestingly, obesity is (probably) more likely to lead to vitamin d deficiency in men than in women - and we’re now also reading that men are more likely to die of coronavirus issues than women.

Isnt going to hurt to take your vit d supps, but not clear whether vit d deficiency might cause you more coronavirus issues or if it’s just another symptom of whatever actually is the issue (ie; obesity).

Edited May 9, 2020 by Aggy

[sonyc 5,517]

7 minutes ago, Aggy said:

One big cause of vitamin d deficiency is obesity - which has also been linked to coronavirus deaths. Interestingly, obesity is (probably) more likely to lead to vitamin d deficiency in men than in women - and we’re now also reading that men are more likely to die of coronavirus issues than women.

Isnt going to hurt to take your vit d supps, but not clear whether vit d deficiency might cause you more coronavirus issues or if it’s just another symptom of whatever actually is the issue (ie; obesity).

Yes, that is my (amateurish) understanding. Articles and commentary link D to ethnicity, air pollution, population density, obesity, males, nursing homes (old age), even diabetes in terms of increased C19 mortality risk. It seems rather obvious in some respects (yet in matters of public health can things ever be 'too' obvious?). As VW mentions "why not". I suppose folk can always seek advice from their GP (overdosing may not be good for example).

Edited May 9, 2020 by sonyc

[Rock The Boat 1,332]

4 hours ago, BigFish said:

I'll give you the new cases, I think my source (a former Director of WHO) misattributed daily for weekly, so I guess you think 20k new cases a week is a great success. As for "fake news", there seems a lot of it about (and the 50k deaths stands up)......

Shocking new research shows UK's coronavirus death toll could really be over 50,000 from those lefties at the Express

There may have already been 55,000 deaths relating to coronavirus in the UK at a ‘cautious estimate’, experts have said  from the lefties at Metro

UK death toll from virus becomes highest in Europe from those lefties at the FT

I disgree that we should cut this feckless, lazy, unprepared and incompetent government slack now. It is time to call this out now, while it could still make a difference, while people are being killed by mistakes.

Covid-19 deaths per million as reported May-07:

Belgium 726
Spain 558
Italy 495
UK 451
France 398
 

[Rock The Boat 1,332]

1 hour ago, Bill said:

The real point is not if we know the exact numbers of deaths, but could any of them have been avoided. This has been a monumental; failure. And one that points to a reasoned thought that yes, many will have died through a combination of warped priorities managed by incompetent politicians.

From failing to lockdown much earlier, to not having adequate supplies of PPE and messing up testing it has been a shambles with tragic consequences. Ones that are still ongoing.

How many tests were purchased from China only to have to be returned - just as 400,000 items of PPE from Turkey ?

All overseen by a clueless bu ll****ter who would rather a photo op outside number 10 than attending vital COBRA meetings. And when the real threat began to emerge took 12 days off to sort out his private life which was in a similar mess to his political life - both due to an inability to stop himself from consistently lying.

However, the real fault lies with those who thought it would be any better with a PM who has a string of costly failures - and sackings behind him.  That is has taken the tens of thousands of deaths to finally expose this latter day Falstaff is a deep shame that hangs on  a great part of the populace

You are misunderstanding this. The stated objective is not to avoid deaths, as much as that may be desirable,  but to prevent the NHS from being overwhelmed with cases that it cannot handle. Hence the slogan which is being repeated daily - 'Protect the NHS'. 

[Bill 1,788]

An interesting addition to this  is -

 

"Italy and Spain have both experienced high COVID-19 mortality rates, and the new study shows that both countries have lower average vitamin D levels than most northern European countries. This is partly because people in southern Europe, particularly the elderly, avoid strong sun, while skin pigmentation also reduces natural vitamin D synthesis.

The highest average levels of vitamin D are found in northern Europe, due to the consumption of cod liver oil and vitamin D supplements, and possibly less sun avoidance. Scandinavian nations are among the countries with the lowest number of COVID-19 cases and mortality rates per head of population in Europe."

 

It would suggest what I had thought when this came up elsewhere years ago. That the average UK resident is ok with an average vitamin D level. It is those working indoors and the elderly who may not be exposed to the sun much ....who may have a problem.

I fear this might be taken by some as a Daily Mail scare story and spark a rush to consume this by the 'worried well'.

[Mark .Y. 352]

12 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

I missed that post.   Can you point to it again?

Couldn't find my original post but here is an extract from an article on the CEBM (Oxford University) website.

Walter Ricciardi isn't the CMO as I said earlier, he is the Scientist Advisor to the Ministry of Health - but, whatever, he is a wold renowned expert in his field.

 

In this article, Professor Walter Ricciardi,  Scientific Adviser to, Italy’s Minister of Health, reports,  “On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88% patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity – many had two or three.”

Recording the numbers of those who die with Coronavirus will inflate the CFR as opposed to those that died from Coronavirus, which will deflate the CFR.

Report from the Italian National Institute of Health: analysed 355  fatalities and found only three patients (0.8%)  had no prior medical conditions. See Table 1 in the paper; (99% who died had one pre-existing health condition):  49%  had three or more health conditions; 26% had two other ‘pathologies’, and 25% had one.

The most common problems in the 355 who died were: 76% high blood pressure; 36%  diabetes, and 33%  ischemic heart disease.

The average age of deceased and COVID-19 positive patients was 79.5 years (median 80.5, range 31-103). The median age of those that died was >15 years higher than patients who contracted the infection (median age: died 81 years – infected 63 years).

 

 

I know the numbers are still horrific but it does shine a different light on them, I thought.

[rondy 7]

X

Edited April 7 by rondy

[Herman 9,764]

14 minutes ago, rondy said:

A timeline of events.. 

Not sure how anyone can defend Johnson and his government after reading this 

 

https://appeasement.org/

👍

[FenwayFrank 2,459]

Definition of alert

 (Entry 1 of 3)

1a: watchful and prompt to meet danger or emergency an alert guardtrying to stay alert to possible problems

b: quick to perceive and act mentally alert

2: ACTIVE, BRISKelicited an alert response

[Herman 9,764]

Be alert. If you see the virus coming punch it in its spiny face and leg it.

[ron obvious 1,502]

I kept alert once, but the poor thing died after a few days.

[Aggy 755]

3 minutes ago, Herman said:

Be alert. If you see the virus coming punch it in its spiny face and leg it.

Wash your hands after 

[Mello Yello 2,293]

Be Alert......the Country needs lerts.....

[The Bristol Nest 513]

I have been taking vit d since early March until the sun came out, as discussed much earlier in this thread when discussing BAME response to this virus.

It is vital to the immune system. 

[sonyc 5,517]

1 hour ago, FenwayFrank said:

Definition of alert

 (Entry 1 of 3)

1a: watchful and prompt to meet danger or emergency an alert guardtrying to stay alert to possible problems

b: quick to perceive and act mentally alert

2: ACTIVE, BRISKelicited an alert response

Wasn't Stay Alert used in wartime? Or in the  Cold War era?

A change obviously from Stay At Home (though Scotland are retaining this) and Protect the NHS messaging has been dropped

[Mark .Y. 352]

16 hours ago, sonyc said:

 

As you quoted my post regarding the Italian Scientfic Avisor - is this directed at me sonyc ?

If so, can you tell me what it is you are saying please

 

[sonyc 5,517]

1 minute ago, Mark .Y. said:

As you quoted my post regarding the Italian Scientfic Avisor - is this directed at me sonyc ?

If so, can you tell me what it is you are saying please

 

No Mark it wasn't a response to the Italian SA, just supporting the figures you had included in a reply about overall numbers of 55,000 (the Economics Editor of the FT). I was showing where that 55k came from (one source).  My apologies if not clear.

 

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Yes but then if we say anything we will be lefty lerts.

It seems there is quite an easy pattern to follow from posters who think excessive death is OK as long as we don't overwhelm. Well from one lefty lert, if we had taken the advice of the stock check carried out last year. if we had lockdown earlier and tested earlier, all of which hare not naturally occurring errors but bad management, overwhelm would not have been a problem.

[T 190]

 

 

So much for the political claims  you can't make international comparisons spouted by the government and their apologist supporters who should have a guilty conscience. You have of course to be careful making comparisons and the numbers will never be exact but that is a classic hard right cop out that you should ignore numbers completely just because they are not exact if they are inconvenient. How ever you dress it up the UK goverment has done poorly. 

 

The UK public is being fed "number theatre" by the government instead of "genuine information", a leading statistician from the University of Cambridge told the BBC on Sunday.

David Spiegelhalter criticised the government's daily briefing, saying "seems to be co-ordinated really much more by a Number 10 communications team" rather than led by experts.

"I just wish the data was being brought together and presented by people who really knew its strengths and limitations and could treat the audience with some respect," he said.

Spiegelhalter wrote an article for the Guardian in April which has been quoted by government ministers when they argue against comparing Britain's high death rate to other nations.

But earlier this week he tweeted to ask ministers to stop citing his article.

He told the BBC's Andrew Marr: “What I was talking about was the comparisons between the bad countries in Europe such as UK, France Italy, Belgium - I was not saying we can’t make any comparisons at all.

“Clearly it is important to note that we as a group are way above Germany, Portugal, Norway, who have low mortality rates.

“What happened in this country was not inevitable," he said.

[Yellow Fever 3,783]

3 hours ago, rondy said:

A timeline of events.. 

Not sure how anyone can defend Johnson and his government after reading this 

 

https://appeasement.org/

Unfortunately - it seems for many they can't disentangle their support of this government or Johnson in particular from criticism over their/his Covid handling (in fact it's the only thing they've had to do of note since being elected).

Any criticism even from the likes of the Telegraph and others nominally of the right gets you labelled as 'lefty' by the ignorant.

It seems they have voted for a pig'n'poke and unsurprisingly got the pig but now have to circle the wagons, defend the indefensible to support their cause come what may as the alternative  - to admit the current incompetence and their errors of judgement is just to painful and frankly beyond them.

By the way - Chamberlain gets a slightly bum wrap - Britain at the time of Munich was in no position to go war - he had to buy much needed time to prepare.

[Mark .Y. 352]

1 hour ago, sonyc said:

No Mark it wasn't a response to the Italian SA, just supporting the figures you had included in a reply about overall numbers of 55,000 (the Economics Editor of the FT). I was showing where that 55k came from (one source).  My apologies if not clear.

 

Ah, no worries mate  🙂

I'm pretty easy going but I do get a bit annoyed on here when people of one political allegiance quote figures, which are estimates !!, from newspapers (I honestly don't care what the particular political leaning of the paper is) but don't want to acknowledge proven facts.

Internet message boards, I guess  🙂 

 

Edited May 10, 2020 by Mark .Y.
2nd and 3rd paras

[hogesar 9,671]

To be fair I have some sympathy with anyone having to take charge of a situation where our public isn't the most intelligent. Look at those protesting lockdown and breaching social distancing because "its not real" or something else farfetched. - they all deserve to get it.