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Aggy

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Aggy last won the day on September 29 2023

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  1. If you’re looking since 2019 (as initial comment) then Labour are significantly more popular and the reduction is exclusively down to the Tories. If you’re looking since 2022 then what you say is correct - but Labour have gone down about five or six percentage points and the Tories have gone up a couple, so a net reduction of about three or four percentage points - hardly statistically significant and the usual sort of fluctuation in that sort of time period. Out of interest, in 2010 the “big 2” only had 65 percent of the vote, in 2005 they had 67, and in 2015 it was 66. Since the 1960s (when it was regularly up in the 80 percent between the two main parties), it’s been pretty stable between high 60s and mid 70s except one or two that were in the high 70s or low 80s. All seems fairly persuasive to me that the reason for the loss in support for the “big two” between 2019 and now is simply that those voters who are historically ‘swing voters’ are going in their droves away from the Tories - some to Labour and some to Reform. When we get to the general election I’d expect Reform’s share to be lower and the Tories to be higher so it will probably end up around 70 per cent.
  2. In fairness, Dylan was querying the truth of an earlier claim that people feel they can vote for neither Labour or the Conservatives because they are both as bad as each other. Your post saying there is a 9 percent drop in support for those two parties combined does then look a little “Tory Spin-ish” in response to that, when in reality the stats you posted show that support for Labour has increased. The stats you posted show SNP, Greens and Lib Dem continue to have 19 percent between them. Others still have 1 or 2 between them. So the real movers are the Tories going down 22 percentage points. Labour have gone up 11 and Reform have gone up 11. While of course there will be cases that are more nuanced, the simplest answer seems quite obviously that almost exactly half of those who have withdrawn their support for the Tories will vote Reform and half will vote Labour. Which makes sense. Those who perhaps aren’t wedded to either party and tend to be fairly centralist are likely to vote Labour. Those more on the right will go Reform. Nothing much there suggesting people are losing support for Labour as well.
  3. Flip side of that is that it could harm Labour in some areas more traditionally Labour as well. Ashfield, Anderson’s seat, a good example. Never been Tory before, became Tory solely on a Brexit/immigration vote. Highly unlikely they’ll vote Tory again I suspect, but some may now vote Remain rather than Labour. That said, most of his constituents seem to think he’s a bit of a plonker, so I’d be surprised if his defection makes much impact anywhere.
  4. So is it a question of scale or a question of whether someone is transgender? If it’s a question of scale, then presumably you’re saying (and presumably just forgot to mention) that you’re also not happy about some females being put at physical risk from other more violent females who have committed more heinous crimes? You’re also not happy about some males being put at physical risk from other more violent males who have committed more heinous crimes? In which case, the issue isn’t really about transgender people at all?
  5. The same people were demanding the death penalty for Lucy Letby a few months ago. Now, they’d apparently be concerned about her safety if there was a trans person in the same prison as her…
  6. A different point perhaps to the main one in the thread, but I’m not sure that’s necessarily right When it comes to Anderson. He is an ex-coal miner, who previously represented Labour, in an ex coal mining area which in the 64 years between the constituency being formed in 1955 and 2019 had only had a non-Labour MP for two years after a by election. The same constituency was a fairly high voter for the BNP in 2010. He has only been in the Conservative party for a handful of years. Not sure it’s a Tory issue as such. Another separate point though, but with Anderson, my guess is he is expecting not to be re-elected and is now trying to become some sort of new Katie Hopkins to try and still be ‘relevant’ this time next year….
  7. So are you suggesting we stop giving state pensions to everyone currently entitled to them with immediate effect?
  8. While there are legitimate immigration questions to be dealt with, why am I not surprised this has a thread, but “Barry” hasn’t got himself one despite last week being charged with attempted murder of a policeman and assault of an emergency worker the day before. If found guilty, can we send him to Rwanda or whichever remote island is being proposed today on this thread, and free up some space for immigrants who aren’t violent criminals?
  9. From Wikipedia: “According to data London's Metropolitan Police,[169][170] a demographic breakdown of known suspects in London attacks for the period (2002–2016) showed White Europeans comprising 32% of suspects, Black Caribbeans 38% and Asian 6%.”
  10. If you’re not yet retired and are paying towards a state pension for someone who has had those 20 plus years (on average) of being retired which you mention, would it be fair if the retirement age shifted up so you have significantly less than those 20 years (on average) of retirement when you get there? You would also have contributed for longer as well given the later retirement age. Contribute longer, get less…
  11. I expect we will lose the series, just can’t really predict how badly. It could be close but something tells me we could easily be on the end of a bit of a drubbing - wouldn’t be surprised if we lost by three or four…
  12. Probably not going to be important in terms of we miss out by 1 goal, but I think goal difference (after a certain number of games) usually gives you an idea of where you’re likely to end up. You can see the existing little “mini-leagues” based on goal difference - and at this stage of the season I think they’re a pretty good indicator. Preston being the only ones really where their points/position is massively different to their GD ranking. I suspect us/ Hull/ Watford/ Sunderland will be finishing 7-10th in no particular order.
  13. I know very little about it save that once when I was in Germany I had dinner with a husband and wife who both played for the German national teams (the wife played at a world championship, the husband at a European one I believe). We didn’t talk much about sport but they did say the training was full on - they both had a main course risotto as a starter and said they needed to eat around 4,000 calories a day. I watched a few games after that but never really got into it. Might have a watch.
  14. If your elbow happens to be pointed at the exact angle that it whacks an opponent smack in the face, quite a distance away from your body, and that’s slowed down on VAR for instance, then you’re very lucky to still be on the pitch.
  15. Except looks to me like Gunn’s elbow smacks into his face here, not his thigh. Very lucky imo!
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