Corona Virus main thread

[sonyc 5,526]

9 minutes ago, Van wink said:

EMA will come out and say what they have said all along imo YF. I struggle with your view of dispair, it seems to me that when you see European national leaders speaking critically about the AZ vaccine, then we have the suspension of vaccinations based on spurious causal effect, we have a steady drip drip of negativity which will inevitably effect peoples appititite for the vaccine, thats human nature and really poor strategy during a pandemic. What worries me is its now seeming to effect peoples perceptions here.

Have had confirmation that it has given the AZ the all clear VW.

The big question for me is whether the lockdown easing might be extended given the latest data and vaccine distribution concerns

 

 

Edited March 18, 2021 by sonyc

[ricardo 7,395]

 

[sonyc 5,526]

1 minute ago, ricardo said:

 

Not at all a surprise. Van Tam probably already knew yesterday. Wonder now if stances might change.

[Van wink 2,994]

2 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Not at all a surprise. Van Tam probably already knew yesterday. Wonder now if stances might change.

It would be astonishing if they don’t, but I’m not holding my breath, the damage sadly has already been done.

[ricardo 7,395]

numbers so low that changes are relatively meaningless.

 

Record number of 2nd doses.

Edited March 18, 2021 by ricardo

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

56 minutes ago, Van wink said:

It would be astonishing if they don’t, but I’m not holding my breath, the damage sadly has already been done.

There is never a politician who will admit mistakes, prejudices or downright incompetence.

For every "Of course" its followed by a "but".

That is one reason I wish they would stop the condescending "our thoughts and prayers"etc.

[The Real Buh 3,444]

1 hour ago, sonyc said:

I agree with VW.

Have tried to be constructive but just get jibes in return. Just enjoy life TRB and it really isn't important what lefties on this thread think. It is no threat to you and there is no need for all the defensive remarks. It's fine.

Read widely, be kind and never mind what folk post. Otherwise it becomes one of those threads that deteriorates. I'm happy if ever you wish to disagree. Likewise if you need the last word, also no problem. We are all individuals on here and the world is a full of them! Life is precious and that's what this very thread is about.

In that respect it really doesn't matter you know who is right or wrong.

Um... it was you who kept replying to me. Just maybe leave me alone and go hector somebody else? I never started talking to you? Very weird, I hope you get the help you need.

[sonyc 5,526]

11 minutes ago, The Real Buh said:

Um... it was you who kept replying to me. Just maybe leave me alone and go hector somebody else? I never started talking to you? Very weird, I hope you get the help you need.

Cheers. All fine. I will be happy not to reply to any your posts. Equally happy too if you'd kindly reciprocate. That would be a massive win for us both.

 

[Van wink 2,994]

5 hours ago, Van wink said:

I really don’t get this WBB, there is clearly some reluctance around AZ in the US, I suspect the “ooh look we messed up the timing of the second dose and hey presto it works better” approach didn’t sit well, but who knows.

But if they are not going to authorise it what on earth is the argument for stockpiling. Biden has done a great job with the vaccination program but what they are doing with AZ doesn’t seem to fit, what I thought was, his view of the world.

Well Mr Biden must have listened 😀

"The US is planning to send millions of doses of the Oxford/AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine across its borders to Mexico and Canada, the White House has announced.

The Biden administration said on Thursday it was planning to “lend” doses to both countries following requests from their respective governments. The US has not yet approved AstraZeneca’s vaccine but has built a stockpile of several million doses while clinical trials are ongoing.

A White House official said: “We are assessing how we can loan AZ doses to both Canada and Mexico. This is a complex process and our team is working with the companies on the feasibility of doing this.

“Our top priority remains vaccinating the US population, but the reality is that this virus knows no borders and ensuring our neighbors can contain the virus is mission-critical to protecting the health and economic security of Americans and for stopping the spread of Covid-19 around the globe.”

Jen Psaki, the White House press secretary, said: “We have some available supply [which we can pass] on to a neighbouring country where there is a lot of traffic that goes back and forth between the countries.” Officials would not comment on whether a similar request by the EU would also be granted.

“We have a number of requests from a range of countries around the world and certainly will continue those conversations... We are open to receiving those requests and obviously making considerations.”

 

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Cornwall's cases have crept up slightly each day this week. Nothing alarming but completely out of character and trend.

[How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,189]

It's Holiday Time!

We are so looking forward to seeing your bulging wallets, er I mean excited happy faces 🙂

[Rock The Boat 1,332]

6 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

I suspect were coming to crunch time with the EU on vaccines and much else. Some home truths about to land.

VdL obviously made an error in assuming AZ would honour (or at least best efforts) the EU contract having identified the UK production facilities as part/parcel of it manufacturing infrastructure to meet the contract. It was not her fault that AZ managed to sign two conflicting contracts. Nevertheless the EU paid upfront in good faith. She was probably not (and I guess would agree) street wise in this situation. The EU obviously continued in good faith - supplying Pfizer vaccines to the UK in the assumption that all would be well with their own AZ and other contracts. The UK made a good start on its emergency authorization and vaccine roll out.

The EU belatedly finds the AZ (and others) production issues and the contractual mess followed by the UK emphasizing its 'UK first' message (it plays well domestically). All of this was of course mute until such time as AZ was authorized and the roll-out becomes supply limited. I'm guessing that's now in sight in the EU (as it is here c.f. India).

Hence VdL is now under political pressure to deliver - to simply follow the UK , USA etc. and declare - EU citizens first.  I fully expect this will now happen within days or weeks. No further exports to the UK of any vaccine until the EU has met its own group 1-9 targets. As a fig-leaf allow Pfizer to ship on the basis of a 1:1 swap with AZ supplies from the UK to meet 12 week Pfizer 2nd doses. No EU politician can prioritize a UK citizen over their own. No doubt the EU will pay for any redirected UK vaccines to the suppliers at say 10% above UK price so they don't lose.

Once the EU has met it own group 1-9 targets then business as usual. Same as UK.

Lastly - to those who shout contracts.  These are always subservient to overriding national security and health laws both here and abroad. Nobody should be surprised these powers are enacted in any national emergency on short supplies with what appears belligerent unhelpful partners. 

This last part links back to the whole EU agreement. As we are aware it remains unratified and Johnson seems to feel free to unilaterally dispense with some of its terms. Simply he's not a man or government of their word - an untrustworthy partner. I rather suspect the EU is getting close to an ultimatum - enact the agreement or we will deem it lapsed and the No Deal scenario follows (NI provisions of course switch in). Of course that would play badly in England but the EU I doubt will care (it's not their electorate) . The UK is toxic and better a boil expunged. 

 

The problem for the EU and VDL is that by invoking the emergency powers under A122 of the Lisbon Treaty to seize factories and take control of production control and vaccine flows is that they are using powers that were intended to be used in wartime situations when nations faced existential threats from outside sources. The problems faced by the EU were trigered by their own tardiness to procure sufficient supplies of vaccines for their own needs and then compounded by their tardiness to use the vaccines they had plus their public doubts about the efficiency of the vaccines anyway. So while production processes have played a part in preventing everybody getting as much dosage as they would like, the EU and VDL in particular are the architects of their own downfall.

If they do decide to invoke emergency powers then global companies are going to ask themselves whether the EU is a good place to do business, if there is a risk to seizure of private assets during peace time. The EU is behaving like China and Russia.

Don't believe me? Well in the 4th qtr of last year capital outflows from the EU were an astonishing 20% of EU GDP. These are the largest outflows in twenty years. Any attempt by the EU to take over private assets could see these outflows become capital flight, especially since US reflation will suck capital out of the global market. 

There will be no economic recovery for the EU this year and with a third wave of covid likely there is more chance of economic slump. Actions have consequences

[sonyc 5,526]

36 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

The problem for the EU and VDL is that by invoking the emergency powers under A122 of the Lisbon Treaty to seize factories and take control of production control and vaccine flows is that they are using powers that were intended to be used in wartime situations when nations faced existential threats from outside sources. The problems faced by the EU were trigered by their own tardiness to procure sufficient supplies of vaccines for their own needs and then compounded by their tardiness to use the vaccines they had plus their public doubts about the efficiency of the vaccines anyway. So while production processes have played a part in preventing everybody getting as much dosage as they would like, the EU and VDL in particular are the architects of their own downfall.

If they do decide to invoke emergency powers then global companies are going to ask themselves whether the EU is a good place to do business, if there is a risk to seizure of private assets during peace time. The EU is behaving like China and Russia.

Don't believe me? Well in the 4th qtr of last year capital outflows from the EU were an astonishing 20% of EU GDP. These are the largest outflows in twenty years. Any attempt by the EU to take over private assets could see these outflows become capital flight, especially since US reflation will suck capital out of the global market. 

There will be no economic recovery for the EU this year and with a third wave of covid likely there is more chance of economic slump. Actions have consequences

There is an issue of consequences I agree. Divorces sometimes end up very acrimoniously don't they? Frost didn't help with his negotiation stance but VDL appears not much different. All very unhelpful in a pandemic that the world faces and where collaboration and real leadership (listening/compromise/clarity etc) is needed more than ever. Depressing in normal times.

https://www.theweek.co.uk/952285/has-eu-vaccine-jingoism-permanently-poisoned-its-reputation?_mout=1&refid=3392DB44574C82E123A3670DEF27EC73&utm_campaign=theweekdaily_newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter

 

 

Edited March 18, 2021 by sonyc

[Van wink 2,994]

42 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

 

If they do decide to invoke emergency powers then global companies are going to ask themselves whether the EU is a good place to do business, if there is a risk to seizure of private assets during peace time.

 

I cant imagine big pharma being overly keen on investment

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

1 hour ago, Rock The Boat said:

The problem for the EU and VDL is that by invoking the emergency powers under A122 of the Lisbon Treaty to seize factories and take control of production control and vaccine flows is that they are using powers that were intended to be used in wartime situations when nations faced existential threats from outside sources. The problems faced by the EU were trigered by their own tardiness to procure sufficient supplies of vaccines for their own needs and then compounded by their tardiness to use the vaccines they had plus their public doubts about the efficiency of the vaccines anyway. So while production processes have played a part in preventing everybody getting as much dosage as they would like, the EU and VDL in particular are the architects of their own downfall.

If they do decide to invoke emergency powers then global companies are going to ask themselves whether the EU is a good place to do business, if there is a risk to seizure of private assets during peace time. The EU is behaving like China and Russia.

Don't believe me? Well in the 4th qtr of last year capital outflows from the EU were an astonishing 20% of EU GDP. These are the largest outflows in twenty years. Any attempt by the EU to take over private assets could see these outflows become capital flight, especially since US reflation will suck capital out of the global market. 

There will be no economic recovery for the EU this year and with a third wave of covid likely there is more chance of economic slump. Actions have consequences

Shall we wait and see what they do ?

Only hysterical media have suggested they seize factories and the like.

Far more likely is a simply a temporary export ban with the EU paying for and accepting the otherwise banned exports. No company would be worse off - possibly they would make more (of everything).

[ron obvious 1,507]

Best news broadcasts by a country mile:

 

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

4 hours ago, Van wink said:

EMA will come out and say what they have said all along imo YF. I struggle with your view of dispair, it seems to me that when you see European national leaders speaking critically about the AZ vaccine, then we have the suspension of vaccinations based on spurious causal effect, we have a steady drip drip of negativity which will inevitably effect peoples appititite for the vaccine, thats human nature and really poor strategy during a pandemic. What worries me is its now seeming to effect peoples perceptions here.

Just saw this in passing and recalled this post. I think this was my kind of view in the original post - it may come out stronger (in the view of Europeans anyway - after trial by fire)

Stephen Lewandowsky, an expert in cognitive psychology at the University of Bristol, said:

[Risk management is] a very difficult issue, and different member states and countries may well come to different decisions on it”. Exercising precaution is one possible way in which policy makers manage risk, and it is more prevalent in European countries than the US or UK, where the emphasis is more on weighing of risks and benefits.

Given that the European public is generally risk averse, the suspension and careful examination of the cases by the EMA may therefore help maintain public trust in the vaccination process, even though it may also mean that more people will get sick from Covid-19 than if the vaccinations had continued.

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

1 hour ago, Rock The Boat said:

The problem for the EU and VDL is that by invoking the emergency powers under A122 of the Lisbon Treaty to seize factories and take control of production control and vaccine flows is that they are using powers that were intended to be used in wartime situations when nations faced existential threats from outside sources. The problems faced by the EU were trigered by their own tardiness to procure sufficient supplies of vaccines for their own needs and then compounded by their tardiness to use the vaccines they had plus their public doubts about the efficiency of the vaccines anyway. So while production processes have played a part in preventing everybody getting as much dosage as they would like, the EU and VDL in particular are the architects of their own downfall.

If they do decide to invoke emergency powers then global companies are going to ask themselves whether the EU is a good place to do business, if there is a risk to seizure of private assets during peace time. The EU is behaving like China and Russia.

Don't believe me? Well in the 4th qtr of last year capital outflows from the EU were an astonishing 20% of EU GDP. These are the largest outflows in twenty years. Any attempt by the EU to take over private assets could see these outflows become capital flight, especially since US reflation will suck capital out of the global market. 

There will be no economic recovery for the EU this year and with a third wave of covid likely there is more chance of economic slump. Actions have consequences

Reuters reports:

The head of the European commission, Ursula von der Leyen, threatened on Wednesday to ban exports of vaccines to safeguard scarce doses for its own citizens facing a third wave of the pandemic.

At a meeting of EU diplomats that took place shortly after von der Leyen’s warning, Germany, Italy, France and Denmark supported the commission’s stance on a tougher application of export controls, three diplomats and officials who attended the meeting or were briefed about it, said.

The Netherlands, Belgium and Ireland were more cautious, two of the officials said, adding a discussion on the matter will be held at a summit of EU leaders next week. “It’s all stemming from a growing frustration with AstraZeneca and being under increased pressure to do something about it. We don’t have enough vaccines, we export like crazy without getting anything,” said one of the diplomats who participated in the discussions.

A first shipment to Australia of AstraZeneca vaccines was blocked earlier in March by Italy, in agreement with the EU commission. All other requests have so far been approved for a total of over 40m shots exported to dozens of countries since 30 January.

[Well b back 3,217]

6 hours ago, Van wink said:

GPs have warned that some patients in England are rejecting the AstraZeneca vaccine or simply not turning up for appointments, after a number of European countries suspended use of the jab over safety concerns.

Doctors are worried that the recent high-profile blood clot reports – which have driven much of western Europe to pause their rollouts of the jab – are fuelling an uptick in vaccine hesitancy within the UK, with appointment ‘no-show’ rates reaching up to 50 per cent at some vaccine sites.

 

Some patients have now started to reject the AstraZeneca vaccine, instead requesting a first dose of the Pfizer jab, GPs say. Others have been inundated with calls from people concerned about the reported blood clots.

Have to say we used AZ today and only one couple wanted to reject for Pfizer, which strangely is unusual as we normally get a lot more than that.

We had the opposite in that some idiot put on Facebook that walk ins were available at a particular time, very clever what an idiot. It was like controlling a football crowd as more and more turned up only to be turned away. 

[Van wink 2,994]

12 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Have to say we used AZ today and only one couple wanted to reject for Pfizer, which strangely is unusual as we normally get a lot more than that.

 

Good news WBB and lets hope your experience is replicated elsewhere

[Rock The Boat 1,332]

23 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Reuters reports:

The head of the European commission, Ursula von der Leyen, threatened on Wednesday to ban exports of vaccines to safeguard scarce doses for its own citizens facing a third wave of the pandemic.

At a meeting of EU diplomats that took place shortly after von der Leyen’s warning, Germany, Italy, France and Denmark supported the commission’s stance on a tougher application of export controls, three diplomats and officials who attended the meeting or were briefed about it, said.

The Netherlands, Belgium and Ireland were more cautious, two of the officials said, adding a discussion on the matter will be held at a summit of EU leaders next week. “It’s all stemming from a growing frustration with AstraZeneca and being under increased pressure to do something about it. We don’t have enough vaccines, we export like crazy without getting anything,” said one of the diplomats who participated in the discussions.

A first shipment to Australia of AstraZeneca vaccines was blocked earlier in March by Italy, in agreement with the EU commission. All other requests have so far been approved for a total of over 40m shots exported to dozens of countries since 30 January.

There's an assumption being made, and it's not just the EU doing it - most producing countries are the same, that the country which has the manufacturing facilities somehow 'own' the vaccines that are produced within its borders, or in the case of the EU within the borders of the EU. Whereas, until they are sold, they really are the property of the manufacturing company. And if you are going to have any sort of global trading system, you have to have internationally recognised standards of law covering trade and commerce that everybody recognises otherwise its just a freeforall. Of course, that's a fairly simplistic view of global trade as governments want all sorts of national protections put in place to keep its citizens supplied with resources but as I said yesterday it's all gone a bit toxic and some countries are throwing their weight around in a way that runs roughshod over what you'd expect fair trading should look like.

None of this bodes well for global recovery. The US are spending an extra $2.8 trillion this year, 13% of GDP to boost their economy. The EU Recovery Fund is planning a medium-term $87bn fiscal stimulus, 0,7% of GDP. US, UK, China are all forecast to return to pre=pandemic levels by next year while the EU will be left behind. Having shot themselves in the foot over vaccine rollout the EU looks to shoot themselves in the other foot having invoked emergency powers in Northern Ireland, about to invoke emergency powers over vaccine supplies, scaring away global business and tardiness in implementing a recovery stimulus.

[Mark .Y. 352]

13 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

Cornwall's cases have crept up slightly each day this week. Nothing alarming but completely out of character and trend.

I guess we are starting to see the effects of the return to school ??

I assume a rise in cases would have been expected but as long as hospital admissions are falling, is seen as a fair trade-off for getting kids back into education.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

2 hours ago, Mark .Y. said:

I guess we are starting to see the effects of the return to school ??

I assume a rise in cases would have been expected but as long as hospital admissions are falling, is seen as a fair trade-off for getting kids back into education.

It is really all about admissions now as you say. With virtually half the eligible population now having at least one jab, even infection should not cause the pressure of the two waves.

[Tetteys Jig 830]

Dare I say it but now we have the vulnerable protected, there may even be a case for the "herd immunity" plan now to avoid a big wave later on in the year when there are less restrictions and still some vulnerable people about.

It's just dodgy ground for those 40+ or those who are vulnerable that are still unvaccinated. I would also suggest we get jab 2 completed in groups 1 to 9 before this really becomes worth thinking about.

It does seem we are always going to be chasing our tails with this virus whatever we do

[ricardo 7,395]

The ZOE App shows things are pretty good in Norfolk and Suffolk.

Had an email today saying I can stop sheltering from April 1st👍

[SteveN8458 64]

18 minutes ago, ricardo said:

The ZOE App shows things are pretty good in Norfolk and Suffolk.

Had an email today saying I can stop sheltering from April 1st👍

Guess its been a little claustrophobic under the bed!!

 

Sorry that's match days 🙂

[Van wink 2,994]

23 minutes ago, ricardo said:

The ZOE App shows things are pretty good in Norfolk and Suffolk.

Had an email today saying I can stop sheltering from April 1st👍

Good news indeed, out from behind the settee then.

Ah didn't see Steves remark above 😳

Edited March 19, 2021 by Van wink

[Van wink 2,994]

Nice holiday in Norfok this year methinks!!

 

Professor Neil Ferguson pours cold water on summer holidays as France imposes lockdownThe tightening of restrictions means that about 21 million French people will be in lockdown from this weekend

CHRISTOPHE ENA/AP

Britain may have to impose further travel restrictions on France to prevent the import of the South African variant, Professor Neil Ferguson has said, as he cast doubt on the prospect of summer holidays in Europe.

The architect of the first lockdown said that there were “important decisions coming up” about nonessential travel.

He said that the speed of the vaccination programme placed greater emphasis on the importation of coronavirus cases from abroad.

Paris has just gone into a month-long lockdown after France recorded almost 35,000 cases in a 24-hour period. Scientists estimate 5 to 10 per cent of these cases could be the South African variant.

[Van wink 2,994]

I find these figures hard to believe, if they are reasonably accurate then it’s a pretty amazing result and extremely good news

“Of the 2,762,775 lateral flow tests that were carried out on secondary pupils, just 1,324 were positive, according to the first official figures”
“A detailed analysis by Prof Jon Deeks, an expert in biostatistics at Birmingham University, has found that the number of positive cases among pupils are far lower than ministers expected.
“The big question is why is that happening? There are two explanations,” he said.  “The first is that this test doesn’t work very well in children and it doesn’t detect the cases. And the other is that asymptomatic infection is much less common in children.
“If the reason is that there aren’t many cases, then this is good news. But if the reason is that the tests are missing cases this is bad news. And if we don’t know - that is very bad news.”

Edited March 19, 2021 by Van wink

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

1 hour ago, ricardo said:

The ZOE App shows things are pretty good in Norfolk and Suffolk.

Had an email today saying I can stop sheltering from April 1st👍

Good job you didn't get rid of the nuclear bunker you had built. Is the food out of date?

Edited March 19, 2021 by keelansgrandad