Corona Virus main thread

[Well b back 3,208]

1 hour ago, Van wink said:

I dont know if that was aimed at me but if you read the thread you will see that I have also been critical of the US.

I dont know enough about the situation in India, I believe they have supplied the UK with over  5 milion doses recently but am also aware that the latest "shortfall" as Hancock described it, was down to a further shipment from India being delayed, as I said to BF earlier. To be honest I could understand it if India did impose some sort of export control, massive population with huge areas of deprivation, a highly vunerable population. I dont know if they have stockpiles of vaccine but suspect not. Are they vaccinated those in greatest need? I dont know the answer to that either.

I do have a big problem with Western democracies who have massive stockpiles already, some of which might not even be authorised for domestic use, who impose or threaten to impose export controls. Also with our neighbours who have made deliberate decisions that have hightened vaccine hesitancy in an already vaccine hostile environment, as shown by Mori ( I think ) survey results today, sit on stockpiles, yet talk about about export bans.

 

 

Hi VW

No not aimed at you at all, I am just horrified. India’s problem is not their own making as nobody will allow them licences to make Pfizer, Moderna ect, but nobody seems to take into account the dangers. This maybe explains it from an ethical point of view and a political point of view and not only the variant dangers, but how China and Russia are now giving away millions of doses mainly for political gain ie you see Johnson’s favour increasing, it is no different for countries towards China and Russia when they ride to their rescue. It is strange that in a lot of the rest of the world the EU are being seen in a much brighter light.

The vaccine inequity that threatens us all

Of the nearly 400 million vaccines delivered so far, about 90 percent have gone to residents of wealthy and middle-income countries, while the rest of the world may have to wait years, potentially prolonging the pandemic.

By partnering with drug companies, Western leaders bought their way to the front of the line, while billions of people wait their turn. But virus variants originating in mostly unvaccinated countries could eventually undo richer countries’ progress, blunting the effect of vaccines.

It didn’t have to be like this. Western governments have resisted the call from global health officials to use rarely employed aggressive powers that could have forced companies to publish vaccine recipes, share their knowledge and ramp up manufacturing, in turn leading to broader vaccine access.

The U.S. government is expected to receive a patent this month on a molecular engineering technique that originated in a National Institutes of Health lab and is at the heart of at least five major Covid-19 vaccines. It could present an opportunity to pressure drug companies to expand access to vaccines to less affluent countries.

Vaccine diplomacy: Russia and China have promised to fill the void, entering into partnerships with producers in places such as Kazakhstan and Indonesia. The global vaccine alliance Covax, which stands to receive $4 billion from the Biden administration, aims to vaccinate 20 percent of people in the world’s poorest countries this year. It faces a $2 billion shortfall.

[Well b back 3,208]

@Van wink

Further to our discussion yesterday we could possibly find out which is the stronger of the Kent and South African variants as they have entered Rwanda at about the same. Not sure of the population of Rwanda without looking it up but they have 347,000 vaccinated ( 97% of their Covax supply ) split 50/50 between Pfizer and Oxford.

[Well b back 3,208]

My guess about what will happen this week is as follows. 
It will be realised that we really have to work together which was worked out in June but abandoned by everybody in December. 

 

[Well b back 3,208]

This seems to be a well balanced programme on tonight’s panorama. Looks worth a watch.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56455030

[Well b back 3,208]

2 hours ago, Mark .Y. said:

Time to get our "special relationship" with Biden underway, he could make up our expected shortfall from India and AZ replaces it in a couple of months time  🙂

 

I maybe wrong but I think AZ owe The EU millions of doses. I would suggest AZ do a deal with The US to loan those supplies and they will have a good couple of months to make them back up. This will end the Western problems and stop China and Russia taking a bigger grip by the day.
Cant see it happening though as the US could with a couple of signatures waive their export bans on materials and licence India ( who could manufacture enough in 3 months to finish this worldwide ) to manufacture Pfizer, Moderna Johnson and Johnson ect. The US problem seems to be that India can do it at about 1/3 of the cost.

[Indy 3,300]

8 minutes ago, Well b back said:

I maybe wrong but I think AZ owe The EU millions of doses. I would suggest AZ do a deal with The US to loan those supplies and they will have a good couple of months to make them back up. This will end the Western problems and stop China and Russia taking a bigger grip by the day.
Cant see it happening though as the US could with a couple of signatures waive their export bans on materials and licence India ( who could manufacture enough in 3 months to finish this worldwide ) to manufacture Pfizer, Moderna Johnson and Johnson ect. The US problem seems to be that India can do it at about 1/3 of the cost.

I would imagine the US will only sell AZ stock at profit! Just knowing their stance on making profits on their own vaccines I doubt they would loan any stock not going to be used!

[Yellow Fever 3,787]

EU Sending AZ.

This is what surprised me (not really) in the news this morning vs a potential EU export ban. The Dutch are about to send a batch of AZ product (the actual vaccine) to the UK this week presumably manufactured in the EU from their AZ Dutch plant (where the same plant can't meet direct EU supplies).

This really does cut across all the hyperbole and flag waving that we hear in the dimmer sections of the press - the UK it would seem is indeed taking AZ EU manufactured vaccines.

Time for some common sense.  

[sonyc 5,520]

8 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

EU Sending AZ.

This is what surprised me (not really) in the news this morning vs a potential EU export ban. The Dutch are about to send a batch of AZ product (the actual vaccine) to the UK this week presumably manufactured in the EU from their AZ Dutch plant (where the same plant can't meet direct EU supplies).

This really does cut across all the hyperbole and flag waving that we hear in the dimmer sections of the press - the UK it would seem is indeed taking AZ EU manufactured vaccines.

Time for some common sense.  

Well...that's the exact opposite of that Express story posted this morning! 😅....The Dutch being "bullied by the Germans" 

Edited March 22, 2021 by sonyc

[Well b back 3,208]

42 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

EU Sending AZ.

This is what surprised me (not really) in the news this morning vs a potential EU export ban. The Dutch are about to send a batch of AZ product (the actual vaccine) to the UK this week presumably manufactured in the EU from their AZ Dutch plant (where the same plant can't meet direct EU supplies).

This really does cut across all the hyperbole and flag waving that we hear in the dimmer sections of the press - the UK it would seem is indeed taking AZ EU manufactured vaccines.

Time for some common sense.  

Most of it is the press. They are referring to the export of AZ from a factory in The Netherlands, which they then add we have never used. I will stand to be corrected but until a couple of months ago as you will be aware I followed every move of the Oxford vaccine and I am sure our initial supplies ( several million ) were from a plant in The Netherlands.

This has been fed to and made a story by the press, totally ignoring the part played by the US.

As I said I believe nothing will happen as we have already put everything on Europe, we will be seen as saving day the day by offering to help obtain higher manufacturing which we did in June and could have ensured it happened in December, but I am afraid the western world has seen it as if we are ok f*** the rest. Next it will be why are all these countries now dealing more with China and Russia and not the West.

[Yellow Fever 3,787]

48 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Most of it is the press. They are referring to the export of AZ from a factory in The Netherlands, which they then add we have never used. I will stand to be corrected but until a couple of months ago as you will be aware I followed every move of the Oxford vaccine and I am sure our initial supplies ( several million ) were from a plant in The Netherlands.

This has been fed to and made a story by the press, totally ignoring the part played by the US.

As I said I believe nothing will happen as we have already put everything on Europe, we will be seen as saving day the day by offering to help obtain higher manufacturing which we did in June and could have ensured it happened in December, but I am afraid the western world has seen it as if we are ok f*** the rest. Next it will be why are all these countries now dealing more with China and Russia and not the West.

I agree it's our very partisan red top press and politicians that take much of the blame for this. The real truth was of course (and still is) the first casualty in these propaganda sheets.

What amused me was the notion that the EU would ideally like AZ to use (and expected) some of its UK capacity to help supply their orders (much to the dismay of the UK) - but the UK seems quite happy with the reverse situation with AZ using some of the EU capacity (Dutch) which is in difficulty to help fulfil the UK order book. What's mine is mine and what's yours is mine too.

As to the contracts they themselves boil down to Belgian or English law but AZ got itself in a mess very clearly. National interests will of course as always trump these contracts if need be. A solution for AZ would of course be to borrow back some of the US doses to make good a shortfall elsewhere subject to uptake as you note. 

[Mark .Y. 352]

1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

I agree it's our very partisan red top press and politicians that take much of the blame for this. The real truth was of course (and still is) the first casualty in these propaganda sheets.

What amused me was the notion that the EU would ideally like AZ to use (and expected) some of its UK capacity to help supply their orders (much to the dismay of the UK) - but the UK seems quite happy with the reverse situation with AZ using some of the EU capacity (Dutch) which is in difficulty to help fulfil the UK order book. What's mine is mine and what's yours is mine too.

As to the contracts they themselves boil down to Belgian or English law but AZ got itself in a mess very clearly. National interests will of course as always trump these contracts if need be. A solution for AZ would of course be to borrow back some of the US doses to make good a shortfall elsewhere subject to uptake as you note. 

I don't think that was really the problem YF.

It seeems to me that the real problem was/is in the wording of the contracts and how AZ fulfills them. It isn't a matter of which particular plant it comes from, it is the order in which the doses are supplied.

[Van wink 2,994]

1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

I agree it's our very partisan red top press and politicians that take much of the blame for this. The real truth was of course (and still is) the first casualty in these propaganda sheets.

What amused me was the notion that the EU would ideally like AZ to use (and expected) some of its UK capacity to help supply their orders (much to the dismay of the UK) - but the UK seems quite happy with the reverse situation with AZ using some of the EU capacity (Dutch) which is in difficulty to help fulfil the UK order book. What's mine is mine and what's yours is mine too.

As to the contracts they themselves boil down to Belgian or English law but AZ got itself in a mess very clearly. National interests will of course as always trump these contracts if need be. A solution for AZ would of course be to borrow back some of the US doses to make good a shortfall elsewhere subject to uptake as you note. 

A few idle musings! Why has the EMA been so slow in licensing the plant (s), they formed part of the agreement to supply the EU, where is the due diligence here? I would have thought it would have been in their best interest to expedite the authorisation, with the necessary care, but at speed. Do we know why this hasn’t happened? 

If the Halex plant hasn’t been approved in the EU and they have been producing vaccine is it a surprise if they have been exporting to UK, if indeed they have.

 

[ricardo 7,395]

There's a reluctance, verging on desperation from some who prefer not to see that the EU has got itself in a pickle of its own making. Some countries got their advanced planning in place early and some just didn't make the right calls at the right time.

[Canary Wundaboy 1,359]

4 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

This really does cut across all the hyperbole and flag waving that we hear in the dimmer sections of the press - the UK it would seem is indeed taking AZ EU manufactured vaccines.

I thought it was common knowledge that some of our vaccine stock is being manufactured in the EU and then exported to the UK. Otherwise the EU's threat of an export ban would be meaningless, no? The EU's problem of course is that by slagging off the AZ vaccine for weeks their populations don't want to have it, resulting in millions of stockpiled and unused vaccines sitting in warehouses. They then have the audacity to blame the UK and AZ for the EU's faltering vaccination program. It's all just designed to try and deflect blame away from the EU itself, although if the German papers are representative of public opinion it isn't working!

 

[ricardo 7,395]

National

Almost 1.9 million tests today

5342 - 17

Local

The usual drop due to weekend data.

[Essjayess 307]

1.9 million daily tests...thats just incredible. So good to see deaths and hospital admissions  still decreasing and even daily infections still showing small decreases on the 7 day rolling data, despite  local flare ups in places such as Rotherham. Vaccinations now approaching 28 million on first dose, well over 2 mill on 2nd dose. Everything then still moving in the right direction, such good news.

[FenwayFrank 2,459]

Having my jab on Thursday 😁

[Van wink 2,994]

9 minutes ago, FenwayFrank said:

Having my jab on Thursday 😁

Good stuff, remember...... clean underware😉

Edited March 22, 2021 by Van wink

[FenwayFrank 2,459]

10 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Good stuff, remember...... clean underware😉

I’ll go commando to save time

[ricardo 7,395]

35 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

1.9 million daily tests...thats just incredible. So good to see deaths and hospital admissions  still decreasing and even daily infections still showing small decreases on the 7 day rolling data, despite  local flare ups in places such as Rotherham. Vaccinations now approaching 28 million on first dose, well over 2 mill on 2nd dose. Everything then still moving in the right direction, such good news.

Fatalities have decoupled from infections. What we are seeing is the vaccine effect.

[Van wink 2,994]

1 minute ago, ricardo said:

Fatalities have decoupled from infections. What we are seeing is the vaccine effect.

Its good to see, we now need to double down to try and keep variants under control.

This really is our big chance..........

We have most vunerable vaccinated,

Test capabailty is massive,

We have huge tracing capabilty and much ( eg Norfolk ) now being done primarily at local level, rather than local follow up of cases the national system couldnt reach,

Most are familiar with use of masks and social distancing

Best genome sequencing availability in the world

Succesfull clinical treatment regimes

We have all the advantages .....dont lets blow it!!

[Van wink 2,994]

https://www.norfolk.gov.uk/care-support-and-health/health-and-wellbeing/adults-health/coronavirus/testing/symptom-free-testing?fbclid=IwAR0kJVmTVNWTI7l4OFeXI3uL36pU9eDGDT7FTxv4LToXiFNVBrqnQIoseJQ
 

Symptom free testing in Norfolk should you wish. 

[Rock The Boat 1,332]

22 hours ago, Well b back said:

Hi VW

No not aimed at you at all, I am just horrified. India’s problem is not their own making as nobody will allow them licences to make Pfizer, Moderna ect, but nobody seems to take into account the dangers. This maybe explains it from an ethical point of view and a political point of view and not only the variant dangers, but how China and Russia are now giving away millions of doses mainly for political gain ie you see Johnson’s favour increasing, it is no different for countries towards China and Russia when they ride to their rescue. It is strange that in a lot of the rest of the world the EU are being seen in a much brighter light.

The vaccine inequity that threatens us all

Of the nearly 400 million vaccines delivered so far, about 90 percent have gone to residents of wealthy and middle-income countries, while the rest of the world may have to wait years, potentially prolonging the pandemic.

By partnering with drug companies, Western leaders bought their way to the front of the line, while billions of people wait their turn. But virus variants originating in mostly unvaccinated countries could eventually undo richer countries’ progress, blunting the effect of vaccines.

It didn’t have to be like this. Western governments have resisted the call from global health officials to use rarely employed aggressive powers that could have forced companies to publish vaccine recipes, share their knowledge and ramp up manufacturing, in turn leading to broader vaccine access.

The U.S. government is expected to receive a patent this month on a molecular engineering technique that originated in a National Institutes of Health lab and is at the heart of at least five major Covid-19 vaccines. It could present an opportunity to pressure drug companies to expand access to vaccines to less affluent countries.

Vaccine diplomacy: Russia and China have promised to fill the void, entering into partnerships with producers in places such as Kazakhstan and Indonesia. The global vaccine alliance Covax, which stands to receive $4 billion from the Biden administration, aims to vaccinate 20 percent of people in the world’s poorest countries this year. It faces a $2 billion shortfall.

That quote says Western countries bought their way to the front of the queue by partnering with drug companies. 

I would interpret this differently. Western countries put up the investment money to research a vaccine cure and therefore earned the right to be first in the queue. 

There was nothing stopping the ASEAN organisation of south-east Asian countries grouping together to provide investment money to research a Covid vaccine. Nor nothing stopping the Association of South American countries doing the same. Or even the oil rich countries of the Middle East. But they all decided not to do this and stood back and let countries the the UK take the risk of putting up the money to find a cure. So yes, we do have a right to be first in the queue. Having said that we do have a responsibility to help others after we have taken care of our own and working with the Commonwealth countries is the ideal place to start. 

[Yellow Fever 3,787]

18 hours ago, Mark .Y. said:

I don't think that was really the problem YF.

It seems to me that the real problem was/is in the wording of the contracts and how AZ fulfills them. It isn't a matter of which particular plant it comes from, it is the order in which the doses are supplied.

All it is Mark is that we've all heard for weeks for purely political spin how the UK govt got ahead of the curve and set up (in the UK) our own manufacturing principally for AZ but eventually for others too and its not 'our' fault that the EU was slower for whatever reasons. Now it transpires that we are actually trying to export EU manufactured AZ (as well as Pfizer) to us. Clearly something is not quite as it would seem in our papers - our 'spin' on a much more complicated situation.

Lastly - I put this up again as it seems to be conveniently missed by many who only read what they want to read.

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/astrazeneca-signed-vaccine-contract-with-eu-at-the-same-time-and-with-the-same-terms-as-uk-221293/

or

https://www.politico.eu/article/the-key-differences-between-the-eu-and-uk-astrazeneca-contracts/

The final contracts with AZ (what everybody argues about) - the EU signed a day BEFORE the UK. 

Blows a somewhat big hole in what I can only describe as the 'UK/Brexiteer' needless rhetoric of we were first in the queue (its actually again not a queue situation but one of conflicting contracts)

Put this all aside - what I'm pleased about is that it appears Johnson is trying as of this morning to find or agree a solution to these AZ issues and resources with the EU. If he doesn't meet them 1/2 way then I have no doubt that on Thursday the EU will slow down deliveries to UK for their own political reasons (the demands of their own electorates as to fair play) of all vaccines to the detriment of us all in the long term.

[It's Character Forming 1,161]

This is the current Zoe app for Nottingham. From what I remember it showed active cases at around 6,000 last September when Nottingham was the UKs hotspot for a few weeks which gradually declined to around 1,500 before the Kent variant pushed cases back up to around 6,000 in January. I can’t remember it being as low as it is now even though schools have been back a couple of weeks, as VW says this is our chance to get on top of it let’s not blow it!

 

 

[Van wink 2,994]

1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

All it is Mark is that we've all heard for weeks for purely political spin how the UK govt got ahead of the curve and set up (in the UK) our own manufacturing principally for AZ but eventually for others too and its not 'our' fault that the EU was slower for whatever reasons. Now it transpires that we are actually trying to export EU manufactured AZ (as well as Pfizer) to us. Clearly something is not quite as it would seem in our papers - our 'spin' on a much more complicated situation.

Lastly - I put this up again as it seems to be conveniently missed by many who only read what they want to read.

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/astrazeneca-signed-vaccine-contract-with-eu-at-the-same-time-and-with-the-same-terms-as-uk-221293/

or

https://www.politico.eu/article/the-key-differences-between-the-eu-and-uk-astrazeneca-contracts/

The final contracts with AZ (what everybody argues about) - the EU signed a day BEFORE the UK. 

Blows a somewhat big hole in what I can only describe as the 'UK/Brexiteer' needless rhetoric of we were first in the queue (its actually again not a queue situation but one of conflicting contracts)

Put this all aside - what I'm pleased about is that it appears Johnson is trying as of this morning to find or agree a solution to these AZ issues and resources with the EU. If he doesn't meet them 1/2 way then I have no doubt that on Thursday the EU will slow down deliveries to UK for their own political reasons (the demands of their own electorates as to fair play) of all vaccines to the detriment of us all in the long term.

Looking very much as if export of AZ from the plant in the Netherlands will be blocked, I suspect reading the mood music AZ wont even ask for the export certificate.

I doubt that this will affect export of Pfizer to UK.

From this report the ban could have quite an impact on our vaccination program.

"An EU export ban could delay the UK’s vaccination programme by two months, according to analysis carried out for the Guardian . However the same analysis found the EU programme would only be sped up by a week if it kept the supplies meant for the UK.

Reuters reported the vaccine row is focused on a factory in the Netherlands which features in AstraZeneca contracts signed with both Britain and the EU.

An EU official claimed that whatever was produced in the plant, run by the subcontractor Halix in Leiden, had to go to Europe."

[sonyc 5,520]

1 hour ago, It's Character Forming said:

This is the current Zoe app for Nottingham. From what I remember it showed active cases at around 6,000 last September when Nottingham was the UKs hotspot for a few weeks which gradually declined to around 1,500 before the Kent variant pushed cases back up to around 6,000 in January. I can’t remember it being as low as it is now even though schools have been back a couple of weeks, as VW says this is our chance to get on top of it let’s not blow it!

 

 

Good to see ICF. Especially looking and comparing with  Ricardo's Norwich and Van wink's Broadband figures. I try and follow the general trends but up our way I've not felt comfortable with infection rates except on a few days when they've trended downwards. For over a week now the figures have shown daily rises (of about 100). The lowest we ever got to was 65! Yes, only 65 in the summer. Even that was greatly higher than is the case in Norwich now. If you drill deeper into ward data the picture changes again of course. But at no stage have I felt simply that it's over or threatens to be over. Most of all though is encouragement about hospitalisation rates and it appears deaths are declining which must be the vaccine factor I would hope.

Copying mine just for comparison purposes only (I know there are a couple of posters very disparaging about Bradford so hopefully they won't be too annoyed reading or seeing the graph. It is a massive metropolitan area of huge contrasts, from rural moors to areas of bye law housing around former industrial buildings. Posters too live all over the UK and beyond. Anyway, comments of qualification out of the way!).

 

Edited March 23, 2021 by sonyc
Typo

[Yellow Fever 3,787]

7 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Looking very much as if export of AZ from the plant in the Netherlands will be blocked, I suspect reading the mood music AZ wont even ask for the export certificate.

I doubt that this will affect export of Pfizer to UK.

From this report the ban could have quite an impact on our vaccination program.

"An EU export ban could delay the UK’s vaccination programme by two months, according to analysis carried out for the Guardian . However the same analysis found the EU programme would only be sped up by a week if it kept the supplies meant for the UK.

Reuters reported the vaccine row is focused on a factory in the Netherlands which features in AstraZeneca contracts signed with both Britain and the EU.

An EU official claimed that whatever was produced in the plant, run by the subcontractor Halix in Leiden, had to go to Europe."

Yes - If it only hadn't been played for petty short term political point scoring to start with it would never have been a problem.

[sonyc 5,520]

3 hours ago, Van wink said:

Looking very much as if export of AZ from the plant in the Netherlands will be blocked, I suspect reading the mood music AZ wont even ask for the export certificate.

I doubt that this will affect export of Pfizer to UK.

From this report the ban could have quite an impact on our vaccination program.

"An EU export ban could delay the UK’s vaccination programme by two months, according to analysis carried out for the Guardian . However the same analysis found the EU programme would only be sped up by a week if it kept the supplies meant for the UK.

Reuters reported the vaccine row is focused on a factory in the Netherlands which features in AstraZeneca contracts signed with both Britain and the EU.

An EU official claimed that whatever was produced in the plant, run by the subcontractor Halix in Leiden, had to go to Europe."

This was the "fact checker" BBC article from yesterday. It shows all the sites on a convenient map!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/56483766?xtor=ES-211-[43012_PANUK_DIV_12_NCA_1yearoflockdown_RET_DEF]-20210323-[bbcnews_whereisastrazenecavaccinemade_newscoronavirus]

 

[ricardo 7,395]

National

5379 - 112

Local