We've in the playoffs!*

[Robert N. LiM 4,667]

Just now, GJL Mid-Norfolk Canary said:

Tbf ..in the 37 ? seasons of the existence of the playoffs, this would only be our 3rd involvement. Its still something of a novelty!

Yeah, normally we've won the league by now.

[ron obvious 1,518]

5 minutes ago, Robert N. LiM said:

This thread is brilliant. No one seems to know how goal difference works, or the play-offs. Marvellous stuff.

I reckon I do.

[Robert N. LiM 4,667]

2 minutes ago, ron obvious said:

I reckon I do.

Thanks. Have amended 😉

[Ulfotto 666]

Three pages into this thread and only a brief mention of the fact West Brom are actually below us so they need to be in the equation. Hull need to win and West Brom need to draw or win if we lose and there needs to be a 8 goal swing.

[AJ 1,235]

1 hour ago, GJL Mid-Norfolk Canary said:

Tbf ..in the 37 ? seasons of the existence of the playoffs, this would only be our 3rd involvement. Its still something of a novelty!

Very good point, and it also means we've got a 66% success rate in reaching the final!

[AJ 1,235]

8 minutes ago, Ulfotto said:

Three pages into this thread and only a brief mention of the fact West Brom are actually below us so they need to be in the equation. Hull need to win and West Brom need to draw or win if we lose and there needs to be a 8 goal swing.

And it's looking very possible that West Brom might be the ones to lose out. They've won just one of their last 6 and sit 20th in the form table. 

[Robert N. LiM 4,667]

16 minutes ago, AJ said:

Very good point, and it also means we've got a 66% success rate in reaching the final!

It's 100% so far. We reached the finals in 2002 (lost) and 2015 (won) in our only two play-off appearances. Beat Wolves to reach the final in 2002 and some other team I can't remember in 2015.

[AJ 1,235]

3 minutes ago, Robert N. LiM said:

It's 100% so far. We reached the finals in 2002 (lost) and 2015 (won) in our only two play-off appearances. Beat Wolves to reach the final in 2002 and some other team I can't remember in 2015.

Sorry yes I misread! 

[Michael Starr 523]

Wouldn't surprise me if we got hammered at Birmingham (Fulham style) and then they get a 3-1 win or something to sneak in. Although WBA are doing their best to self sabatage. 

Edited April 28 by Michael Starr

[Samwam27 535]

Will be interesting as none of the 4 teams occupying the playoffs are going into those games in good form. 

[TheBaldOne66 723]

If Plymouth can put 6 past us on a bad day, who knows what Brum could do if we have a bad day too? 
 

All those saying it’s done and dusted seem to forget football can have a nasty habit of biting you on the a*** if you are not on your game. 
 

It’s over to the master tactician to park the bus I suppose 🤣🤣🤣

[Capt. Pants 4,334]

The challenge for Wagner now is how to optimise the fitness of the players so that we're in the best position possible to win the play-offs. That will probably mean a slight reshuffling of the pack next week.

It's likely to mean a very pragmatic approach at Brum next week in the face of an opponent who needs to win. There will also be one eye on who will be finishing 3rd and what WBA are doing to decide if it's worth finishing 5th or 6th.

The lottery of the play-offs and it begins next week!

[Samwam27 535]

Just now, TheBaldOne66 said:

If Plymouth can put 6 past us on a bad day, who knows what Brum could do if we have a bad day too? 
 

All those saying it’s done and dusted seem to forget football can have a nasty habit of biting you on the a*** if you are not on your game. 
 

It’s over to the master tactician to park the bus I suppose 🤣🤣🤣

And Fulham also shipped 6 past us on the final day as well. It's squeaky bum time. Brum will be right up for it. I don't think it's done and dusted by a long shot, with our away form! 

[Wings of a Sparrow 1,467]

This is why I wanted an Ipswich win...

Still, yesterday's result saved us from a celebratory singing of Sweet Caroline. 

[ron obvious 1,518]

37 minutes ago, Samwam27 said:

And Fulham also shipped 6 past us on the final day as well. It's squeaky bum time. Brum will be right up for it. I don't think it's done and dusted by a long shot, with our away form! 

It's possible we'll lose 5,495-0 & Hulll win by 3,472-0. All things are possible.

All you can do is make an estimate of likely outcomes. And based on results this year the chances of our not making the play-offs are effectively zero. We've been beaten by 4 goals once (approx. 1 in 33) & Hull haven't won by 4 goals at all.

For us to miss out we would need to have our worst result AND Hull to SIMULTANEOUSLY win by 3 clear goals, something they've only done 3 times this season.

As I said, all things are possible, but RATIONALLY the PROBABILITY of both things occurring is negligible. Estimates of a 1 in 25 chance or whatever are completely wrong.

Edited April 28 by ron obvious

[Besthorpe-48 103]

First of all you cannot get a bet on either Norwich or Southampton making the play offs because they already have.

The actual odds are over 15000 to 1 on Norwich.

Made up of 8 to 1 on as only 1 of the 9 possible scenarios next Saturday favours hull

 I.e they win and Norwich lose.

Moving on to goal difference Norwichs biggest loss by 4 goals happened once I.e 44 to 1 and Hulls biggest win is by 3 goals I.e43 to 2. Multiply that put using combination theory gets you to over 7500 to 1

And incidentally is still not enough being only a 7 goal swing.

Then add in that is 2 to 1 on that Norwich will get a result that is at least as good as wba. This gets us to over 15000 to 1.

This analysis uses real numbers not unsubstantiated speculation.

And just in case a nyone thinks this is just playing with numbers go to astros thread about "How many points do we need" where I said 74 which is exactly what we need to be absolutely certain

Looking forward to southampton!

 

 

 

 

[essex canary 516]

12 minutes ago, Besthorpe-48 said:

First of all you cannot get a bet on either Norwich or Southampton making the play offs because they already have.

The actual odds are over 15000 to 1 on Norwich.

Made up of 8 to 1 on as only 1 of the 9 possible scenarios next Saturday favours hull

 I.e they win and Norwich lose.

Moving on to goal difference Norwichs biggest loss by 4 goals happened once I.e 44 to 1 and Hulls biggest win is by 3 goals I.e43 to 2. Multiply that put using combination theory gets you to over 7500 to 1

And incidentally is still not enough being only a 7 goal swing.

Then add in that is 2 to 1 on that Norwich will get a result that is at least as good as wba. This gets us to over 15000 to 1.

This analysis uses real numbers not unsubstantiated speculation.

And just in case a nyone thinks this is just playing with numbers go to astros thread about "How many points do we need" where I said 74 which is exactly what we need to be absolutely certain

Looking forward to southampton!

 

 

 

 

How do you work that one out?

The chance of a Championship match ending in a 4 or more goal margin is 5.5% this season so 2 matches ending in such an outcome is around 0.3% or one in 330. You would have to add in other variations such as Birmingham less likely to win by such a margin plus a 5 and 3 goal etc. Not likely but not remotely as unlikely as you suggest.

[Osborne17 11]

Random question, but is the home match of the playoffs included in season tickets? Or will we have to buy a ticket for our usual seats (like in cup games)? (if we get there, of course!)

Edited April 28 by Osborne17

[Crafty Canary 511]

3 hours ago, Nuff Said said:

🎶

Are you a maths teacher?

Are you a maths teacher?

Are you a maths teacher?

Are you a maths teacher? 🎶

No 😏 , my specialisation is Chemistry.

[Grando 283]

2 hours ago, AJ said:

Very good point, and it also means we've got a 66% success rate in reaching the final!

We’ve got a 100% success rate in reaching the final in our two previous playoff appearances…

[Grando 283]

1 hour ago, Samwam27 said:

And Fulham also shipped 6 past us on the final day as well. It's squeaky bum time. Brum will be right up for it. I don't think it's done and dusted by a long shot, with our away form! 

You mean our away form that brought a 1-0 victory against Preston the last time we travelled…

[Mr Angry 1,575]

Odds on us losing 4-0 and Hull winning 4-0 are 1680/1 with Bet 365.

Throw in the odds of West Brom winning or drawing and it's 1866.77/1. Miserabilists lump on 🤣

[aBee 152]

13 hours ago, Naturalcynic said:

7 goal swing is perfectly possible.  Hope Wagner and the team aren’t counting their chickens.  We need a solid performance at Brum.

IIRC Swansea managed a 5 goal swing to pip Forest to 6th in 19-20. 
 

Good luck to you guys though. I’ve put a quid on you going up at 5-1 so hope to be able to buy a pint to celebrate you making Leeds cry on the telly at my local. 

[Pockthorpe 542]

Skybet must be pretty confident !  They offered me cash out of £299.58 on a bet set to pay out £300 if we finish top 6 after Hull v Ipswich last night. 
And yes , I took it. 

Edited April 28 by Pockthorpe

[Northluck C 30]

1 hour ago, Osborne17 said:

Random question, but is the home match of the playoffs included in season tickets? Or will we have to buy a ticket for our usual seats (like in cup games)? (if we get there, of course!)

Not included, it’s treated like a cup game. You’ll have a window of a few days to purchase your usual season ticket seat before it gets offered out to others. At least that’s how I remember it working in 2015.  

[Naturalcynic 685]

20 minutes ago, Northluck C said:

Not included, it’s treated like a cup game. You’ll have a window of a few days to purchase your usual season ticket seat before it gets offered out to others. At least that’s how I remember it working in 2015.  

The luxury of a window of a few days is optimistic. Our home leg of the play-offs would only be a week after the Birmingham game so the ticket office will be extremely busy trying to sort it all out in a very short space of time.

[Northluck C 30]

Yes, it’s a tight turnaround. By ‘a few days’ I mean possibly only a couple of days. But there will definitely be a reasonable opportunity (as far as timeframes permit) for season ticket holders to buy their usual seat. 

[baldy09 163]

Looking forward to the payoffs but don't feel over confident- if we don't make it -we need to hold onto our best players and get 3 or 4 quality players in and I'm sure we can automatically go up next season

[shefcanary 2,504]

As a numbers man, this is a hilarious thread. But as someone with a life, there are just too many other things to do to seriously join in. The real question is out of Ipswich, Soton, Hull and us, who's going up? 😉

[essex canary 516]

37 minutes ago, Naturalcynic said:

The luxury of a window of a few days is optimistic. Our home leg of the play-offs would only be a week after the Birmingham game so the ticket office will be extremely busy trying to sort it all out in a very short space of time.

You could be right on that one. They are probably well down on staff relative to 2015.