dylanisabaddog 5,021 Posted January 13 (edited) Based on last 10 games we're in 4th place (before today). This is the end of season computer prediction. Having looked at our remaining fixtures I think we're capable of 72 points Edited January 13 by dylanisabaddog Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Real Buh 3,486 Posted January 13 I’m thinking more 15th. I think we’ll definitely tail off once we are “safe” but have nothing left to play for. Has to be a very slight degradation on last season, enough that a certain element of the fanbase just write it off and but another identifies the slow and steady degradation of standards at the club. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,414 Posted January 13 We are a midling team and that prediction won't be far out. For me top six is possible but unlikely. 6 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
pete 320 Posted January 13 I can't see us getting to 72 points. Predictor looks about right. But not having yellow and green specs I'm more likely to be realistic on our play off chances. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dylanisabaddog 5,021 Posted January 13 10 minutes ago, pete said: I can't see us getting to 72 points. Predictor looks about right. But not having yellow and green specs I'm more likely to be realistic on our play off chances. Last 10 games are the equivalent of 72 points. Sargent wasn't available for most of those games and Sainz and Hanley only available for a small number. Keep everyone fit and it's possible. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Crafty Canary 508 Posted January 13 To make the play offs the usual minimum poits needed is 75. This means we need 37 points from our remaining 19 games or almost 2 points per game average. Given we are averaging 1.4 points per game this would seem a very unlikely outcome. Therefore I hope The Black Cats give the Scum a thorough thrashing this evening. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Well b back 3,284 Posted January 13 Be shocked if Southampton don’t finish second, and that’s not just because of who the predictor is predicting Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Fen Canary 874 Posted January 13 Southampton will go up in 2nd place, Ipswich 3rd, Leeds 4th. We’ll be 9th, 2-3 points outside the playoffs Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RobJames 893 Posted January 13 6 hours ago, dylanisabaddog said: Based on last 10 games we're in 4th place (before today). This is the end of season computer prediction. Having looked at our remaining fixtures I think we're capable of 72 points or, based on current points total 46 games would have Coventry and Sunderland finishing on 68 points. Which massively scales back the usual thought total of 75 points as a minimum to finish 6th (another bit of bad news for the whiners) Achieving that target would mean us needing to gain 1.6 points every game on average over the remainder of the season ie 3.2 points in the two games v West Brom and Coventry. So despite our shaky season so far, we now only have to achieve the usual target (75) points in our next 19 games to be in an around 6th come May. All to play for, I would suggest. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
......and Smith must score. 1,363 Posted January 13 (edited) 26 minutes ago, RobJames said: ………despite our shaky season so far, we now only have to achieve the usual target (75) points in our next 19 games to be in an around 6th come May. All to play for, I would suggest. Yes, the math adds up but do you really think we can average a smidgen under two points a game for the next 19 games ? ” we now only have to achieve the usual target “ will mean consistent top two form for the remainder of the season. For realism’s sake I think the word ‘ only ‘ is best left out. Edited January 13 by ......and Smith must score. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Graham Paddons Beard 2,458 Posted January 13 So far 1.4 points per game . Getting this up to 2 pts per game unlikely . On course for 64/5 points which doesn’t usually get in the playoffs. Already dropped too many points at home to go up. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Indy 3,323 Posted January 13 To be honest I don’t think it matters much, Southampton will probably get second, Leeds will probably win the playoffs….but then again Luton went up last year! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Wacky Waving Inflatable Arm Flailing Tube Man 3,865 Posted January 13 53 minutes ago, RobJames said: or, based on current points total 46 games would have Coventry and Sunderland finishing on 68 points. Which massively scales back the usual thought total of 75 points as a minimum to finish 6th (another bit of bad news for the whiners) It varies wildly. Sunderland got in on 69 last season, but it has been known for 78 to not be enough. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
AJ 1,232 Posted January 14 Players returning from injury should in theory help increase our points average but I can't say it'll matter much either way as we certainly aren't good enough to beat the likes of Leeds or Southampton in the playoffs over two legs. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Christoph Stiepermann 1,155 Posted January 14 These computer prediction tables always make me groan. They predict that every team will either be in the same position or one, maybe two places different basically to what they are on the day that the prediction is made...Really clever technology. If they do this prediction again after another two games every team in the middle of the pack will be predicated to finish in wildly different places. It's the Championship, if the table at the end of the season looks near identical to what it looks like now it would just be an astonishing co-incidence. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
A Load of Squit 5,223 Posted January 14 They need a computer to look at the last 10 games and predict the final table? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RobJames 893 Posted January 14 19 hours ago, Graham Paddons Beard said: So far 1.4 points per game . Getting this up to 2 pts per game unlikely . On course for 64/5 points which doesn’t usually get in the playoffs. Already dropped too many points at home to go up. Why do we need 2 points a game ? All clubs below 5th are targetted to get 68 points or less. 1.6 points per game would have us on 69 points - 6th place. As stated, had we had Gunn not out I am certain we would have picked up a few more points which even three would now have us in the playoffs. And had Idah not missed yet another chance, it would have been more comfortable on Fri night than it might have looked. One of the notable features of Lamberts promotions was the up and at 'em spirit, often in the last 10 minutes. over the top so to speak. What we are seeing is almost the opposite. A dogged defending of the trenches. They shall not pass, so to speak. Not so much 'mauled by the Tigers' but having the Tiger skinned and laid out as a rug to be walked over. It's all to play for. Knock out the 'Gas' on Weds and it's a half million (?) payout in scouse land. Take the money and boost the front line with a decent young Pl loanee from the proceedings of that game. All to play for and enjoy for genuine City fans, and much to blub about for the whiners. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
......and Smith must score. 1,363 Posted January 14 On 13/01/2024 at 21:08, RobJames said: ………So despite our shaky season so far, we now only have to achieve the usual target (75) points in our next 19 games to be in an around 6th come May. All to play for, I would suggest. 4 hours ago, RobJames said: Why do we need 2 points a game ? All clubs below 5th are targetted to get 68 points or less. 1.6 points per game would have us on 69 points - 6th place. Why do we need 2 points a game ? Because you said in the first post that we did ( lol ) Computer predictions are exactly that. Predictions. It’s not what always happens in real life. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Indy 3,323 Posted January 14 (edited) This computer based prediction is for the last ten games, the next ten will probably have Southampton, Leeds, & Leicester top three, you can perm fourth spot from the next ten teams! The reality as you say Smith, lots of variables and teams go through loss / finding form! Personally I think we’ll be around 70 points by the end, around 10th as I thought at the start of the season and my three I predicted will go back up! My only concern is the age of our squad and lack of development of more of the younger players. Edited January 14 by Indy Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
canarybubbles 1,950 Posted January 15 It all looks very sciency, with the exact figures down to a decimal point. But computers can only number crunch based on points accrued so far, making allowance for recent form and other stats such as xG. I suspect they still can't do what people do, such as add points because Team A has recently appointed a new manager who they rate highly or deduct points because someone they believe to be a key player has just suffered a long-term injury. Well, they can, but only if this subjective evaluation is input by a human being, and then the inputter is the decisive agent, not the machine. At least that's my amateur take on predictions such as this one, but I have to admit I have no background or knowledge of computing. Whether AI will eventually be able to do all of this without the fingers of a human being, I have no idea. Is there anyone on here who is working in that field? It would be interesting to hear an expert opinion on this. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
shefcanary 2,474 Posted January 15 5 hours ago, canarybubbles said: Is there anyone on here who is working in that field? It would be interesting to hear an expert opinion on this. I'm sure Attanasio has got his data guys working on it already! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
In my blood 39 Posted May 6 (edited) The OP was soooo close to predicting our final points position. Chapeau! Edited May 6 by In my blood 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Graham Paddons Beard 2,458 Posted May 6 A great bump @In my blood So … We had 1.4 points per game at the time. We ended nearer 1.6 points so the last games since this thread Hull away (played on 12th Jan) by my calcs we played 19 games On 13th Jan after game day 27 we had 38 points from 27 games and were 10th behind Coventry in 6th on 40 points. The following 19 games earned 35 points at 1.84 per game. the prediction by @dylanisabaddogis extraordinary! Id like to see his working 😁 We didn’t need 2 points a game but we did have to considerably improve on the current PPG. We did . Our home form changed dramatically- I didn’t see too many predictions on that front . Credit to the Wagner , players AND the fans Our away from is still poor . We need to overcome this to get passed Leeds. Also shows even the old stagers don’t get it right all the time 😉 @dylanisabaddog Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
cambridgeshire canary 6,833 Posted May 6 Phew, glad I did not make any silly comments in this one! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Canary Jedi 590 Posted May 6 On 13/01/2024 at 14:55, The Real Buh said: I’m thinking more 15th. I think we’ll definitely tail off once we are “safe” but have nothing left to play for. Has to be a very slight degradation on last season, enough that a certain element of the fanbase just write it off and but another identifies the slow and steady degradation of standards at the club. Agree, we’ve got no chance of making the playoffs 😉 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Well b back 3,284 Posted May 7 On 13/01/2024 at 14:55, The Real Buh said: I’m thinking more 15th. I think we’ll definitely tail off once we are “safe” but have nothing left to play for. Has to be a very slight degradation on last season, enough that a certain element of the fanbase just write it off and but another identifies the slow and steady degradation of standards at the club. Right again I see Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SwindonCanary 455 Posted Tuesday at 11:38 I've already booked the away leg ! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites