How many points needed (2nd half of season)

[ricardo 8,034]

Now we are at the halfway stage I thought it might be interesting to see historically, how many more points are likely to be needed for promotion.

I had a look back over the last 10 seasons and it appears that anything over 87 points should gaurantee at least 2nd place. The only season when it wasn't enough was 15/16 when Brighton were third on 89 points. The range of third place totals is from 77 to 89 points with an average of 84 points.

Using that as a yardstick then another 40 points will probably be more than enough but lets call it 43 points for a margin of safety.

So something like 12 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats (43 points) should certainly do the trick.

 

[Midlands Yellow 4,682]

Putting Bournemouth, Brentford and Swansea in the mix for top 2 with ourselves then even 10 more wins could do it. 

A win tomorrow hits the 50 point mark which is poignant. Just keep accumulating the points and the rest will sort itself out. Brentford bottled it at the business end last season but we know how to get over the line. 
 

[canarydan23 4,761]

2 hours ago, Midlands Yellow said:

Putting Bournemouth, Brentford and Swansea in the mix for top 2 with ourselves then even 10 more wins could do it. 

A win tomorrow hits the 50 point mark which is poignant. Just keep accumulating the points and the rest will sort itself out. Brentford bottled it at the business end last season but we know how to get over the line. 
 

Poignant?

[Feedthewolf 5,885]

3 hours ago, Midlands Yellow said:

Putting Bournemouth, Brentford and Swansea in the mix for top 2 with ourselves then even 10 more wins could do it. 

A win tomorrow hits the 50 point mark which is poignant. Just keep accumulating the points and the rest will sort itself out. Brentford bottled it at the business end last season but we know how to get over the line. 
 

Still wouldn't totally rule out Reading either. Once they have Joao and Meite fit again, I think they'll surprise a few people.

[Canary Wundaboy 1,423]

3 minutes ago, Feedthewolf said:

Still wouldn't totally rule out Reading either. Once they have Joao and Meite fit again, I think they'll surprise a few people.

I would. They've already shown a lack of consistency that has moved them from 1st with a decent lead to 5th, 7 points behind us in 1st. Mentally that also puts them at a disadvantage. I concur with ours on the thread, we're in the same groove we were 2 years ago without even hitting top gear yet, if it does click together (not saying it will due to extenuating circumstances) we're going to be 10 points clear by the end.

[Alex Moss 2,167]

3 hours ago, ricardo said:

Now we are at the halfway stage I thought it might be interesting to see historically, how many more points are likely to be needed for promotion.

I had a look back over the last 10 seasons and it appears that anything over 87 points should gaurantee at least 2nd place. The only season when it wasn't enough was 15/16 when Brighton were third on 89 points. The range of third place totals is from 77 to 89 points with an average of 84 points.

Using that as a yardstick then another 40 points will probably be more than enough but lets call it 43 points for a margin of safety.

So something like 12 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats (43 points) should certainly do the trick.

 

Interesting. We should definitely be able to achieve what you’ve set out in the last paragraph I would have thought, Ricardo. In fact, I think we’ll marginally better it based on the first half of the seasons evidence, especially when you take into account we got all those points with the ridiculous injury list we had. 

On another related point, what makes me laugh is that I keep hearing it's a ‘weak Championship’ this season. Is it hell! The 3 teams that came down managed to keep hold of a fair few of their better players, Brentford and Swansea look strong and contenders in their own right, then you look at the likes of Reading and Barnsley etc who are both playing at a level where a Play Off place is certainly achievable. 

Armed with all that, I would love for those football supporters in general that think this is a weak championship, to show us all those Championship seasons where these mythical 12 strong sides or so are all in the hunt for the title. It’s completely on par with any other season, and if anything, there’s more stronger sides this campaign than the usual 3 or 4 we usually see. If we win the league this season then I actually think it’ll be a better achievement than our 18/19 win.

[Hucks6 186]

Just win more games than chasing pack otbc

[ricardo 8,034]

Deleted

Edited January 15, 2021 by ricardo

[ricardo 8,034]

9 minutes ago, Hucks6 said:

Just win more games than chasing pack otbc

Or even one less😉

[Feedthewolf 5,885]

23 minutes ago, Canary Wundaboy said:

I would. They've already shown a lack of consistency that has moved them from 1st with a decent lead to 5th, 7 points behind us in 1st. Mentally that also puts them at a disadvantage. I concur with ours on the thread, we're in the same groove we were 2 years ago without even hitting top gear yet, if it does click together (not saying it will due to extenuating circumstances) we're going to be 10 points clear by the end.

I agree it's highly unlikely they'll catch up with us unless we fall apart completely, but I totally wouldn't be surprised to see them stay in the top six and take points off the other teams in and around us. As regards our chances, that's a separate point and I'm in full agreement. I've said in other threads that it's ours to lose.

[Pukki Blinders 96]

If we match our total from the first half of the season we'll win the league, simple as that. 

We currently have 47 points at the half-way stage, so match that total we'll have 94.

Strangely enough, in the 18/19 season when we obviously won the league, we had 47 points at the half-way stage and finished the season with 94. 

[Petriix 3,218]

I would guess that 90 would be enough to secure second, so 43 more. But it's a weird season which might impact things. While smaller clubs will struggle, bigger clubs with bigger squads and higher budgets will become disproportionately better; compounded by fixture congestion and positive Covid tests.

I've never known the three relegated clubs be so competitive and I could see three teams realistically pass 90 points.

[Ward 3 483]

I'd say another 40 points will see us up, and 46 for the title...

[Bill 1,788]

needed around 43

wanted, 53 minimum

[ricardo 8,034]

16 minutes ago, Bill said:

needed around 43

wanted, 53 minimum

Yep, 100 points would be very nice and make us  certain champions.👍

87 does look very doable, anything above will be a bonus.

[Rich T The Biscuit 676]

33 minutes ago, Ward 3 said:

I'd say another 40 points will see us up, and 46 for the title...

40 feels tight to me, we need to aim for 90+

[Uncle Fred 526]

I suspect the season will finish early and pro rata we will need less points 

[Capt. Pants 5,008]

Just don't do a Leeds and fall apart and we will be fine.

[shefcanary 2,950]

Been waiting for Ricardo to start predicting; I trust his judgement.  Although Ricky hasn't committed (typical bloke), I sense a level of positivism that has warmed my cockles.  Another 43!

[Crabbycanary3 994]

Don't forget that we have Bournemouth, Brentford, Reading, Watford, Middlesboro and Stoke (currently 3rd to 8th) all to play here. Win that little lot, and we won't 'need' as many as people think

[Midlands Yellow 4,682]

1 hour ago, shefcanary said:

Been waiting for Ricardo to start predicting; I trust his judgement.  Although Ricky hasn't committed (typical bloke), I sense a level of positivism that has warmed my cockles.  Another 43!

1/2 to be promoted and 1/14 to be top 6, I think we all can predict it should be half decent where we finish. 

[paddycanary 579]

4 hours ago, canarydan23 said:

Poignant?

Did someone say 50 points? Excuse me..............I've got something in my eye......................

[Midlands Yellow 4,682]

8 minutes ago, paddycanary said:

Did someone say 50 points? Excuse me..............I've got something in my eye......................

Hope it’s not a stinging substance 😉

[paddycanary 579]

Just now, Midlands Yellow said:

Hope it’s not a stinging substance 😉

It's a bit pointy. 50 to be precise

[Midlands Yellow 4,682]

Just now, paddycanary said:

It's a bit pointy. 50 to be precise

Ok. 

[ricardo 8,034]

1 hour ago, shefcanary said:

Been waiting for Ricardo to start predicting; I trust his judgement.  Although Ricky hasn't committed (typical bloke), I sense a level of positivism that has warmed my cockles.  Another 43!

On a positive note I can say that I have never seen us fall away once we are in a strong position. In promotion fights we always seem to go on with the job. (Conversely in relegation fights we always fall away.)

I would like to see a better goal difference but apart from that I am fairly confident that we will gain promotion.

[Van wink 2,994]

I’m hopeful we will get a few more than 43 points, experienced Championship manager and the best squad in the League, if the season does complete, which I suspect it will, the depth of quality we have the squad will be more significant than ever.

[......and Smith must score. 1,596]

To be promoted : I reckon 40 points should do it.

To stay up : 3 should be enough ( just to cover all angles 😉 )

[CANARYKING 707]

Would be wonderful to be back in, even in small numbers

[Nuff Said 5,960]

48 minutes ago, CANARYKING said:

Would be wonderful to be back in, even in small numbers

That is my “back to normal” benchmark, the first time I go to a match - but with a decent crowd around me (so it’s likely to be ten years or more for Ipswich)