The Positive Brexit Thread

[canarydan23 4,212]

6 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

As for KG's jibe, I'll stay here thanks. No interest in living like a sardine like you lot.

Lol. You're on a Norwich City forum addressing someone from the South West. Give your head a wobble.

[Herman 9,928]

We just trash talk you brexiters and your delusions.

[keelansgrandad 6,680]

2 hours ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

You lot really do need to move out of the UK. People who take so much glee in trash talking their own country at every opportunity aren't worth anything to it.

As for KG's jibe, I'll stay here thanks. No interest in living like a sardine like you lot.

Not a jibe but I wanted point out the paradox of your posts.

[Hook's-Walk-Canary 213]

On 24/05/2023 at 18:29, Herman said:

 

 

There's no mention of the fact that food prices are 7% higher in the EU than the UK in that analysis, despite predictions by you Remaintards that it'd be other way round...

And we learn today that Germany is officially in recession.

Edited May 25, 2023 by Hook's-Walk-Canary

[keelansgrandad 6,680]

52 minutes ago, Hook's-Walk-Canary said:

 

There's no mention of the fact that food prices are 7% higher in the EU than the UK in that analysis, despite predictions by you Remaintards that it'd be other way round...

And we learn today that Germany is officially in recession.

Funny how you didn't want comparisons with Germany at one time.

And its not how much more prices are in the EU. Its the rate of increase. Food prices have always been higher in many EU countries.

[dylanisabaddog 5,171]

8 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

Funny how you didn't want comparisons with Germany at one time.

And its not how much more prices are in the EU. Its the rate of increase. Food prices have always been higher in many EU countries.

In my experience, the reason that food prices are higher in some EU countries is that the food is a better quality.

The only large country in Europe that has a worse obesity problem than us is Turkey which is mainly because we eat cheap crap. 

[Herman 9,928]

Why is Hungary doing far worse than every other country in Europe, not by just a couple of percentage points, but double in some cases?

[A Load of Squit 5,330]

10 hours ago, Hook's-Walk-Canary said:

 

 

And we learn today that Germany is officially in recession.

Yet firms from the UK and US are flocking to Germany to invest.

UK companies setting up agencies in EU countries to get a foothold in the EU to avoid all the hassle of being a third country.

Never mind we've got the CPTPP.

 

 

[Herman 9,928]

16 hours ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

The IMF has backtracked on its previous forecast of recession for the UK, changing  the forecast for the UK from -0.3% to +0.4%. If that's the correct, the UK likely won't be the worst performer in the G7 this quarter. In fact, their forecast for Germany is zero growth.

 

I think they may have to backtrack on their positive forecast now. 

[Yellow Fever 3,886]

16 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

By the way, the IMF 'forecasts' of +0.4 we made BEFORE we had the latest inflation figures (higher than forecast) and BoE requiring now (expected) to put up interest rates even more than previously forecast (ergo depress growth).

Just to emphasize this point I see today that others think likewise as below.

It's just economic literacy as opposed to endless illiterate comments and cherry picking (It's Germany today) I see by this those of a Brexit persuasions grasping at straws. If you want to fix the UK's problems, first admit to what the problems are however ideologically painful.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2023/may/26/mortgage-rates-rising-inflation-shock-uk-retail-sales-rise-easter-business-live

El-Erian: Bank of England has to keep raising interest rates

The Bank of England has no choice but to keep hiking interest rates to fight inflation, argues Mohamed A. El-Erian, President of Queens’ College, Cambridge, and chief economic adviser at Allianz.

El-Erian told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that the risk of stagflation (weak growth and persistently high inflation) has increased, after inflation fell by less than hoped in April (to 8.7%, data on Wednesday showed).

El-Erian, a highly respected economist, says:

I don’t think the Bank of England has any choice but to increase interest rates further.

It could well take interest rates from four and a half percent [today] all the way to five and a half percent. That’s what the market is anticipating [see earlier chart].

And that’s understandable because it has one target, to reduce inflation to 2%, and we’re well above.

But whatever the Bank of England does will be “necessary but not sufficient”, El-Erian warns. That’s because the UK economy suffers from “longer-term issues” which mean inflation here is higher than in other countries.

El-Erian says:

We have a productivity problem. We have a problem of supply chains and our changing relationship with the rest of the world. And of course, we have a labour market issue.

Unless the government steps up its efforts to increase productivity and improve supply chains and labour market functioning, we will end up in a situation where the Bank of England pushes us into recession, El-Erian warns firmly.

El-Erian also suspects that the IMF would not have sounded so optimistic on Tuesday, had it known that Wednesday’s inflation report would have been disappointing (with core inflation rising, and headline inflation higher than countries such as the US, Germany and France).

 

[canarydan23 4,212]

We're ****ed. I'm one of the few million whose fixed rate is coming to an end in 2023. I'm on a mortgage rate of 0.91% that was taken out in October 2021. Luckily I locked in on a rate three weeks ago but I'm still looking at having to pay nearly £200 a month more, and I was able to pay a £10k lump sum off of my mortgage. The vast majority won't be able to do that. When those millions start paying hundreds and hundreds of pounds a month more on their mortgage, restaurants, takeaways, subscription services, retail will all take huge hits as luxury goods and treats are purged from people's budgets.

Mortgage rates inevitably had to rise from their sub-1% level but to allow it to jump from that to where we are at now in a period of just a few months is criminal mismanagement from Brexiteer Governments.

It's almost like people who supported Brexit are a bit dense.

[TheGunnShow 6,245]

3 hours ago, Herman said:

Why is Hungary doing far worse than every other country in Europe, not by just a couple of percentage points, but double in some cases?

An authoritarian nincompoop as leader, probably.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,666]

3 hours ago, canarydan23 said:

We're ****ed. I'm one of the few million whose fixed rate is coming to an end in 2023. I'm on a mortgage rate of 0.91% that was taken out in October 2021. Luckily I locked in on a rate three weeks ago but I'm still looking at having to pay nearly £200 a month more, and I was able to pay a £10k lump sum off of my mortgage. The vast majority won't be able to do that. When those millions start paying hundreds and hundreds of pounds a month more on their mortgage, restaurants, takeaways, subscription services, retail will all take huge hits as luxury goods and treats are purged from people's budgets.

Mortgage rates inevitably had to rise from their sub-1% level but to allow it to jump from that to where we are at now in a period of just a few months is criminal mismanagement from Brexiteer Governments.

It's almost like people who supported Brexit are a bit dense.

https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/interest-rate

The eurozone has the same problem, as does the US.

[canarydan23 4,212]

53 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/interest-rate

The eurozone has the same problem, as does the US.

You're talking about interest rates, mortgage rates are impacted by them but not entirely. No country saw mortgage rates rise at the rapid level ours did following the disastrous Tory budget last year.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,666]

1 hour ago, canarydan23 said:

You're talking about interest rates, mortgage rates are impacted by them but not entirely. No country saw mortgage rates rise at the rapid level ours did following the disastrous Tory budget last year.

Fair comment, but that was a budget decision by the government; it wasn't anything specifically to do with the fact we've left the EU. If the government had done that while we were in the EU, it would have been the same result .

[Herman 9,928]

41 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

Fair comment, but that was a budget decision by the government; it wasn't anything specifically to do with the fact we've left the EU. If the government had done that while we were in the EU, it would have been the same result .

Truss wouldn't have got anywhere near the top job if it hadn't been for brexit. That and Johnson cleared off the competent tory politicians. 

[littleyellowbirdie 2,666]

6 hours ago, Herman said:

Truss wouldn't have got anywhere near the top job if it hadn't been for brexit. That and Johnson cleared off the competent tory politicians. 

Speculative. She got the top job because of the Conservative party membership. Left to their own devices, the MPs would have had Sunak the first time around. It was straightforward cause and effect with that budget.

Edited May 26, 2023 by littleyellowbirdie

[Herman 9,928]

 

[Daz Sparks 1,244]

1 hour ago, Herman said:

 

Ha, 78% of Express readers think we'll be getting 3 foot of snow next week.

[keelansgrandad 6,680]

5 hours ago, Herman said:

 

*Not Marjorie from Godalming as well? It will be Gibraltar next.

[How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,208]

Europe, year 2100 😃

[Herman 9,928]

Yugo-Danish Union??😁

Here is some new and interesting polling.

 

[littleyellowbirdie 2,666]

2 hours ago, Herman said:

Yugo-Danish Union??😁

Here is some new and interesting polling.

 

The question is, what proportion of Brexit voters did actually support a close relationship with the EU as non-members outside of the single market and customs union? I don't remember the question ever being asked; assumptions abounded among opponents according to their prejudices regarding 'them'. As such, who can say whether this is a change or simply a reflection of the conversation finally starting to become somewhat more sensible (this thread excepted of course)? Nobody can.

Edited May 28, 2023 by littleyellowbirdie

[Herman 9,928]

Maybe it's the slow, dawning realisation that we weren't lying but genuinely trying to warn you off your stupid idea. The reality of a hard brexit is being shown in all its glory. 

[PurpleCanary 5,651]

2 hours ago, Herman said:

Maybe it's the slow, dawning realisation that we weren't lying but genuinely trying to warn you off your stupid idea. The reality of a hard brexit is being shown in all its glory. 

There was an interesting column in the FT a few days ago as to why Starmer, for exampler, doesn't come out strongly for closer links to the EU, given how opinion, as above, is shifting against Brexit.

The point the writer made was that, annoying though it is, there is a significant time gap between people realising for themselves they have been conned by something (all the Brexit lies, in this case) and those same people being willing to be told they have been conned.

[BigFish 2,009]

4 hours ago, PurpleCanary said:

There was an interesting column in the FT a few days ago as to why Starmer, for exampler, doesn't come out strongly for closer links to the EU, given how opinion, as above, is shifting against Brexit.

The point the writer made was that, annoying though it is, there is a significant time gap between people realising for themselves they have been conned by something (all the Brexit lies, in this case) and those same people being willing to be told they have been conned.

True PC, but also as Swift wrote “It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of a thing he was never reasoned into.”

There are a number of things that need to play out. It is easy to forget that only 37% of the population voted for Brexit back in 2016. Since then there has been seven years of younger voters joining the electorate, a generation that is significately pro-EU. Additionally many who did vote Leave only did so because they were asked the question not because they strongly believed. No one voted to be worse off, as we are undoubtedly.

Farage successful tactic was the manoeuvre a weak Cosnservative Party into a position it would never have adopted normally. This has racheted them into politics that are not popular with personal and membership dominated by Brexiteers. These Brexiteers and their fellow travellers in the media cannot back down now because their careers depend on it. Starmer therefore knows he can track right winning far more disaffected moderates than he loses unhappy remoaners. A electoral reckoning is needed before the debate can move forward.

 

[sonyc 5,542]

6 hours ago, PurpleCanary said:

There was an interesting column in the FT a few days ago as to why Starmer, for exampler, doesn't come out strongly for closer links to the EU, given how opinion, as above, is shifting against Brexit.

The point the writer made was that, annoying though it is, there is a significant time gap between people realising for themselves they have been conned by something (all the Brexit lies, in this case) and those same people being willing to be told they have been conned.

Yes, it was referenced in The Knowledge this morning (a great media aggregator daily email which summarises a lot of news, some of which is quite esoteric or at least stuff one wouldn't always have read). The simple paragraph here sums it up rather well...

Inside politics

Plenty of smart people – Alastair Campbell, Times columnist Matthew Parris, the heads of Ford and other carmakers – are saying we need to rethink Brexit, says Janan Ganesh in the FT. I’m afraid they’re wrong. A time will come when politicians can admit that leaving the EU was “a turkey of an idea”. But if they do it too early, voters will “shrink into a defensive crouch”. A few years can make all the difference: when Ted Heath sought a mandate to weaken trade unions in 1974, voters rejected him; when Margaret Thatcher did the same just five years later, she won. That’s why Keir Starmer is right to hold his tongue. If he waits, perhaps just one more election cycle, revisiting Brexit may feel like no more than a “bow to the inevitable”.

[Hook's-Walk-Canary 213]

8 hours ago, Herman said:

Maybe it's the slow, dawning realisation that we weren't lying but genuinely trying to warn you off your stupid idea. The reality of a hard brexit is being shown in all its glory. 

Most lies were from Remainiacs and many were outrageous: https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/matthew-ellery/leave-lies-remainers-need_b_12191462.html

The reality of Brexit is that it hasn't been fully implemented and the proof of that has been provided a myriad times throughout this thread -- Here's up to date proof in Littlejohn's article today: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-12129859/RICHARD-LITTLEJOHN-coup-taking-place-Britain.html

No one, especially Remaintards on this thread, can honestly say Brexit has been either successful or unsuccessfull if it hasn't been fully implemented - Which it clearly hasn't.

 

[littleyellowbirdie 2,666]

7 hours ago, PurpleCanary said:

There was an interesting column in the FT a few days ago as to why Starmer, for exampler, doesn't come out strongly for closer links to the EU, given how opinion, as above, is shifting against Brexit.

The point the writer made was that, annoying though it is, there is a significant time gap between people realising for themselves they have been conned by something (all the Brexit lies, in this case) and those same people being willing to be told they have been conned.

Will they realise it though? I mean, let's face it, many people here remain in complete denial regarding the absence of any practical way of undoing it even though it's blatantly obvious that the ship has long sailed. Whether people who voted for it think it was a mistake, they'll be far harder to convince that it can be undone with a click of the fingers, or even years of careful negotiation that isn't impeded by those determined to obstruct it if anyone tries.

Edited May 28, 2023 by littleyellowbirdie

[PurpleCanary 5,651]

25 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Yes, it was referenced in The Knowledge this morning (a great media aggregator daily email which summarises a lot of news, some of which is quite esoteric or at least stuff one wouldn't always have read). The simple paragraph here sums it up rather well...

Inside politics

Plenty of smart people – Alastair Campbell, Times columnist Matthew Parris, the heads of Ford and other carmakers – are saying we need to rethink Brexit, says Janan Ganesh in the FT. I’m afraid they’re wrong. A time will come when politicians can admit that leaving the EU was “a turkey of an idea”. But if they do it too early, voters will “shrink into a defensive crouch”. A few years can make all the difference: when Ted Heath sought a mandate to weaken trade unions in 1974, voters rejected him; when Margaret Thatcher did the same just five years later, she won. That’s why Keir Starmer is right to hold his tongue. If he waits, perhaps just one more election cycle, revisiting Brexit may feel like no more than a “bow to the inevitable”.

Thanks, sonyc. In fact one of the readers' comments was on the lines of: "I hate what this article is saying [because it was calling for Starmer to keep on with his softly softly approach] but it is right."

I have said before that if, and I think this is likely to happen (as do some of those Tory MPs who are quitting Parliament despite being quite young), there is an anti-Tory win at the next election and the one after then there can be a more proacative approach, added to what in the Vietnam war was called "mission creep" in the negotiations.