The Positive Brexit Thread

[Yellow Fever 3,856]

I see the (still) higher than expected inflation figures with interest rate rises to follow have punctured the recent more positive mood. Hmm.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,615]

2 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

The US is even more insular looking than the EU or UK. It own 'internal' market is huge and with things like the 'inflation reduction' act i.e. huge incentives to bring manufacturing back to the US (chips to batteries) the very last thing it will do in the foreseeable future is open up to 'free trade' especially with lower cost Asian countries or even the UK on its physical and metaphorical island (c.f the earlier punitive steel tariffs).

The world is really now breaking up into a few large competing trade blocks all with internal subsidies and protections. US, EU - possibly CPTPP (with China?) - although I note from your Malaysian article that they think it needs to develop a stronger council, rules and enforcement - I give you the unelected 'commission' to make it work!

Everybody wants CPTPP to be good for the UK - but at present its very small beer born out of political as opposed to economic expediency that has a long way to go with rules and regs before it is even cohesive. A work in progress.

I suspect there's a better chance of Japan, Korea, Australia and NZ joining the SM first (it has been discussed) than the US joining CPTPP!

There are still competing pressures. The US can't afford to be too isolationist if it wants to prevent China overtaking it as the dominant power.

China's application to CPTPP  is not welcome for most of CPTPP and would probably lead to China gutting it from within. Proximity makes saying no to China difficult for many members. That's not a problem for us though, so the others will probably rely on us.

Cumulation of rules of origin looks to be one of the biggest values of CPTPP. This is also the area where there's most talk about EU/CPTPP cooperation. If this applies to automotive, which there's lobbies in many directions favouring then that helps us significantly.

As to whether the US does join is another kettle of fish, but that misses the point that the aspiration within CPTPP gives plenty of motivation for CPTPP countries to make it work for us. In a way, people like those in here still going on about rejoining the EU makes it as urgent for CPTPP that we see benefits as it is for us.

Edited May 24, 2023 by littleyellowbirdie

[A Load of Squit 5,251]

More stupid promises of jam tomorrow from the stupid people who think the stupid CPTPP is the answer.

We had all of these stupid promises during the Brexit campaign and we know how that turned out.

Stop being so stupid.

[Herman 9,867]

 

[sonyc 5,541]

On 23/05/2023 at 19:03, littleyellowbirdie said:

And yet this also underlines just how much the eurozone has been a big win for Germany and that's about it. It has locked in a permanent competitive advantage for them compared to the rest of the Eurozone.

That's one way of taking that article LYB but for me it says a lot more about the UK. Does Germany's gain mean more than the UK's loss? I really don't think so. It means loss of proper UK jobs and future investment.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,615]

2 hours ago, sonyc said:

That's one way of taking that article LYB but for me it says a lot more about the UK. Does Germany's gain mean more than the UK's loss? I really don't think so. It means loss of proper UK jobs and future investment.

Of course the UK's loss is the most important thing from the UK's perspective; from the EU perspective, if Germany in isolation is the  major winner from the UK's losses then the EU clearly isn't working for all of the EU.

Anyway, just had some drinks with a friend over here on holiday with his family, who just told me about the kid sent home from school in West Sussex because he went 'bzzz' in the direction of a kid who was self-identifying as a bee that day.

Edited May 24, 2023 by littleyellowbirdie

[A Load of Squit 5,251]

6 hours ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

Of course the UK's loss is the most important thing from the UK's perspective; from the EU perspective, if Germany in isolation is the  major winner from the UK's losses then the EU clearly isn't working for all of the EU.

Anyway, just had some drinks with a friend over here on holiday with his family, who just told me about the kid sent home from school in West Sussex because he went 'bzzz' in the direction of a kid who was self-identifying as a bee that day.

We have to tolerate a stupid person who self-identifies as a know all bore.

Edited May 25, 2023 by A Load of Squit

[KiwiScot 1,491]

9 hours ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

 a kid who was self-identifying as a bee that day.

Any idea if the kid just decided to be that for the day or were they discussing self-identication in school?

[littleyellowbirdie 2,615]

8 minutes ago, KiwiScot said:

Any idea if the kid just decided to be that for the day or were they discussing self-identication in school?

He specifically said ‘that day’ but no idea if it was prompted by a discussion. I’m seeing them again tonight so I’ll ask some more. This was at the school their son goes to. 

[Herman 9,867]

Control are boarders. 

[littleyellowbirdie 2,615]

7 hours ago, A Load of Squit said:

We have to tolerate a stupid person who self-identifies as a know all bore.

You don't have to tolerate me. You can just click ignore. Now, kindly go f*k yourself you tiresome, repetitive, uninteresting piece of sh1t.

Edited May 25, 2023 by littleyellowbirdie

[Yellow Fever 3,856]

It must be dreadful to be fully paid up Brexiter.

Everything they touch turns to a crock of s h i t .

Notwithstanding all the problems of the economy and inflation, the extra red tape caused for businesses importing / exporting  (apparently extra red tape has cost us customers an extra £7Bn so far on food alone), the NI debacle, the absence of the much vaunted US trade deal and much else - oh yes the NHS.

Then we have immigration - the one thing they said they could control. A Johnson 'world beating' record. Of course they've discovered yet again that even with an Australian points style system it appears we need lots and lots of (skilled) immigrants to do all the jobs us Brits can't and won't do. Who'd have known, were we told ? Jobs like working in care homes looking after the doolally baby boomer Brexiteers.

Seriously, although we were all told in 2016 we need to have a proper grown up discussion about immigration and what the country needs to support its tax base and labour going forward especially with the huge ageing baby boomer demographic needing pensions and personal care. It's obvious now, proved by reality, that many didn't listen last time or perhaps they had darker xenophobic motives after-all?

Edited May 25, 2023 by Yellow Fever

[Herman 9,867]

The tory brexiters want a high wage, high skill, low immigration, low tax country. It is always doomed to fail. 

[littleyellowbirdie 2,615]

50 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

It must be dreadful to be fully paid up Brexiter.

Everything they touch turns to a crock of s h i t .

Notwithstanding all the problems of the economy and inflation, the extra red tape caused for businesses importing / exporting  (apparently extra red tape has cost us customers an extra £7Bn so far on food alone), the NI debacle, the absence of the much vaunted US trade deal and much else - oh yes the NHS.

Then we have immigration - the one thing they said they could control. A Johnson 'world beating' record. Of course they've discovered yet again that even with an Australian points style system it appears we need lots and lots of (skilled) immigrants to do all the jobs us Brits can't and won't do. Who'd have known, were we told ? Jobs like working in care homes looking after the doolally baby boomer Brexiteers.

Seriously, although we were all told in 2016 we need to have a proper grown up discussion about immigration and what the country needs to support its tax base and labour going forward especially with the huge ageing baby boomer demographic needing pensions and personal care. It's obvious now, proved by reality, that many didn't listen last time or perhaps they had darker xenophobic motives after-all?

'The Brexiter's', 'they'... having hinted at a bit of actual nuanced thinking when you were talking about the motives of minorities with a Commonwealth background who voted to leave, you're back to talking about a vague group characterised according to your beliefs instead of actual verifiable fact. Rather than attacking a straw man, you're attacking a straw mob.

Last paragraph really underlines how you continue to miss the point regarding how the vote was far more an unfocussed protest vote from those largely ignored and unheard. Ironically, the tone of this thread is starting to sound more and more like something riffing on Harry Enfield's Tory boy in its dismissive and narrow-minded outlook.

Edited May 25, 2023 by littleyellowbirdie

[littleyellowbirdie 2,615]

The IMF has backtracked on its previous forecast of recession for the UK, changing  the forecast for the UK from -0.3% to +0.4%. If that's the correct, the UK likely won't be the worst performer in the G7 this quarter. In fact, their forecast for Germany is zero growth.

 

[Herman 9,867]

Schrodinger's IMF. 

[canarydan23 4,152]

31 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

The IMF has backtracked on its previous forecast of recession for the UK, changing  the forecast for the UK from -0.3% to +0.4%. If that's the correct, the UK likely won't be the worst performer in the G7 this quarter. In fact, their forecast for Germany is zero growth.

 

Woohoo! Upgraded to almost worst!

[Herman 9,867]

😁

 

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

54 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

The IMF has backtracked on its previous forecast of recession for the UK, changing  the forecast for the UK from -0.3% to +0.4%. If that's the correct, the UK likely won't be the worst performer in the G7 this quarter. In fact, their forecast for Germany is zero growth.

 

The Germans will still beat us on penalties.

So our growth will still be small but as long as its better than Gemany it will be OK.

What if its better than France? Coming back?

[littleyellowbirdie 2,615]

UK car production up three months in a row, with 80% of cars going for export; 6,000 more produced than the same month last year.

https://www.lse.co.uk/news/uk-car-production-increases-for-third-month-in-a-row-2dh74nh08ve8mtb.html

[littleyellowbirdie 2,615]

7 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

The Germans will still beat us on penalties.

So our growth will still be small but as long as its better than Gemany it will be OK.

What if its better than France? Coming back?

You're starting to sound a bit ridiculous. Where were your complaints about comparison to Germany a few pages back when your buddies were gleefully sharing negative comparisons?

Edited May 25, 2023 by littleyellowbirdie

[littleyellowbirdie 2,615]

New Jaguar Land Rover Gigafactory to be built in the UK.

https://news.sky.com/story/tata-jaguar-land-rover-owner-set-to-build-new-gigafactory-in-uk-12888473

[Herman 9,867]

"The deal will involve around half a billion pounds worth of public support, in part to secure low energy prices for the plant - one of the biggest industrial interventions in recent history."

[littleyellowbirdie 2,615]

1 minute ago, Herman said:

"The deal will involve around half a billion pounds worth of public support, in part to secure low energy prices for the plant - one of the biggest industrial interventions in recent history."

A worthwhile investment in building an important sector in the UK economy. Good work by the government.

[Yellow Fever 3,856]

1 hour ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

'The Brexiter's', 'they'... having hinted at a bit of actual nuanced thinking when you were talking about the motives of minorities with a Commonwealth background who voted to leave, you're back to talking about a vague group characterised according to your beliefs instead of actual verifiable fact. Rather than attacking a straw man, you're attacking a straw mob.

Last paragraph really underlines how you continue to miss the point regarding how the vote was far more an unfocussed protest vote from those largely ignored and unheard. Ironically, the tone of this thread is starting to sound more and more like something riffing on Harry Enfield's Tory boy in its dismissive and narrow-minded outlook.

You really don't have any sense of humour do you? Everything black and white and taken literally and very touchy on any criticism of the beloved Tory Brexit.

The give away was the first word in the last paragraph. Seriously (inferring the rest was tongue in cheek or a bit of ribbing of the hapless Brexiters). I repeat the import part - 

Seriously, although we were all told in 2016 we need to have a proper grown up discussion about immigration and what the country needs to support its tax base and labour going forward especially with the huge ageing baby boomer demographic needing pensions and personal care. It's obvious now, proved by reality, that many didn't listen last time or perhaps they had darker xenophobic motives after-all?

By the way, the IMF 'forecasts' of +0.4 we made BEFORE we had the latest inflation figures (higher than forecast) and BoE requiring now (expected) to put up interest rates even more than previously forecast (ergo depress growth).

[Herman 9,867]

5 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

A worthwhile investment in building an important sector in the UK economy. Good work by the government.

Why wasn't the Britishvolt one in Blyth worth investing in?

[littleyellowbirdie 2,615]

Just now, Yellow Fever said:

You really don't have any sense of humour do you? Everything black and white and taken literally and very touchy on any criticism of the beloved Tory Brexit.

The give away was the first word in the last paragraph. Seriously (inferring the rest was tongue in cheek or a bit of ribbing of the hapless Brexiters). I repeat the import part - 

Seriously, although we were all told in 2016 we need to have a proper grown up discussion about immigration and what the country needs to support its tax base and labour going forward especially with the huge ageing baby boomer demographic needing pensions and personal care. It's obvious now, proved by reality, that many didn't listen last time or perhaps they had darker xenophobic motives after-all?

By the way, the IMF 'forecasts' of +0.4 we made BEFORE we had the latest inflation figures (higher than forecast) and BoE requiring now (expected) to put up interest rates even more than previously forecast (ergo depress growth).

And the inflation figures themselves are largely a symptom of UK demand continuing to outstrip supply, so while it's bad and uncofortable, it's also sign that the UK economy still isn't going over any cliff edge; it by no means negates the growth forecasts, which is based on dollar measures.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,615]

2 minutes ago, Herman said:

Why wasn't the Britishvolt one in Blyth worth investing in?

It was, which is why Recharge Industries bought the assets to continue to set up an operation there.

[Yellow Fever 3,856]

2 minutes ago, Herman said:

Why wasn't the Britishvolt one in Blyth worth investing in?

We're all very pleased Herman. 

I think the score of Giga-factories last time I looked was 

EU 35 : UK 2 (after extra time)

No need for penalties KG.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,615]

1 minute ago, Yellow Fever said:

We're all very pleased Herman. 

I think the score of Giga-factories last time I looked was 

EU 35 : UK 2 (after extra time)

No need for penalties KG.

You lot really do need to move out of the UK. People who take so much glee in trash talking their own country at every opportunity aren't worth anything to it.

As for KG's jibe, I'll stay here thanks. No interest in living like a sardine like you lot.

Edited May 25, 2023 by littleyellowbirdie