****Unofficial Lapps Match thread. Canaries vs Owls****

[Foxy2600 305]

1 minute ago, Fuzzar said:

Three points off the playoffs. 

Wagner out!! 🤔

[Satriales 669]

I cant wait for Sarge to come back. Bit of American money for the January window and who knows...

[Ken Hairy 3,774]

Job done, made hard work of it in the end and somehow we're 3 points off the play offs.

 

[Nik Vawn 130]

4 minutes ago, GenerationA47 said:

Whaffor?

Should have been 4😠😠😠

[Foxy2600 305]

Beat the s<¥m and we’re top 6…?

[Adycakes 5]

6 minutes ago, cambridgeshire canary said:

Going to be a quiet night on here today then..

 

Whisper it but we are going into the derby five unbeaten

3 unbeaten, while I also want to forget the Watford game, we did lose.

[cambridgeshire canary 6,756]

I mean if Idah was able to head it in as he should off and Barnes had scored those two chances he somehow missed we would have and really should have won 6-1.

 

We are one of the highest scoring teams in the divison right now and today does seem to show why much as even I tend to forget about this stat

[Satriales 669]

1 minute ago, Foxy2600 said:

Beat the s<¥m and we’re top 6…?

Would depend on other results. We're 3 behind a couple of other clubs in the top 6. 

[Nik Vawn 130]

4 minutes ago, Ken Hairy said:

Job done, made hard work of it in the end and somehow we're 3 points off the play offs.

 

We’re three points off the playoff’s because while all the Wagner out stuff has been going on we have been on an excellent run of results. Answers on a postcard!

Edited December 13, 2023 by Nik Vawn

[If wed kept Howie.. 208]

5 minutes ago, Foxy2600 said:

Beat the s<¥m and we’re top 6…?

if we win by 9 goals

[Creedence Clearwater Couto 1,289]

Stats suggest Wednesday the better side? 21 shots to our 12. Anyway, decent 3 points against a team on form. We’re still getting battered on Saturday though! And a tough run coming up. 

[percy varco 199]

Still not convinced with Wagner. 
Sheff W are 1 from bottom. Tonight was the minimum requirement. 
He’s not the messiah…………………

[Samwam27 531]

Idah is a mystery. Comes off the bench as saviour, then two full games starting and cant get on the scoresheet.

And he's done that before. When Hwang and Sarg are back we'll hopefully be more clinical up front, which is exciting

[cambridgeshire canary 6,756]

2 minutes ago, Creedence Clearwater Couto said:

Stats suggest Wednesday the better side? 21 shots to our 12. Anyway, decent 3 points against a team on form. We’re still getting battered on Saturday though! And a tough run coming up. 

Binner

[Robert N. LiM 4,428]

Leicester won to go top, too.

And then there was this. Good night.

https://x.com/FootColic/status/1735025021171478714?s=20

 

Edited December 13, 2023 by Robert N. LiM
the link is the Sainz goal. Not displaying for some reason

[Canaries north 151]

The first half we were cut open far too often. We created some good chances but also gave away far too many. Against a better team we could have been punished for our wastefulness. Still not sure how the third went in but I will take it. Saturday will be a different test and I still have a funny feeling ip**** will bottle it. Let's hope so anyway. 

[Jim Smith 2,325]

8 minutes ago, Creedence Clearwater Couto said:

Stats suggest Wednesday the better side? 21 shots to our 12. Anyway, decent 3 points against a team on form. We’re still getting battered on Saturday though! And a tough run coming up. 

They had 21 shots? That does back up the general feeling watching that we were too open. You can’t afford to let most teams have that many shots 

[cambridgeshire canary 6,756]

1 minute ago, Jim Smith said:

They had 21 shots? That does back up the general feeling watching that we were too open. You can’t afford to let most teams have that many shots 

Not just giving away 21 shots but giving away 21 shots against the team that's BOTTOM of this table.. That's, yeah pretty bad

https://footystats.org/england/championship/goals-scored-table

[makham 81]

😃Sainz buries ("Sainsbury's") Wednesday special. We could have done with a couple more tonight to safeguard the GD against the upcoming Saturday's blitz.

[Robert N. LiM 4,428]

5 minutes ago, makham said:

😃Sainz buries ("Sainsbury's") Wednesday special.

You could just taste the difference he made.

[BroadstairsR 2,186]

12 minutes ago, Canaries north said:

The first half we were cut open far too often. We created some good chances but also gave away far too many. Against a better team we could have been punished for our wastefulness. Still not sure how the third went in but I will take it. Saturday will be a different test and I still have a funny feeling ip**** will bottle it. Let's hope so anyway. 

We've been noticing that all season, even the commentators repeatedly mention it. 

The only person oblivious to this weakness is the manager.

We score goals and create chances with ease at times, so do the opposition.

[hogesar 9,707]

1 hour ago, Samwam27 said:

And yet we ignore the elephant in the room that is Duffy. Batth should be given a run instead of Duffy

Oh I don't rate Duffy either but he's better with the ball at his feet than Baath. 

And Baath cameo saw him beaten in the air more times in 10 minutes than Duffy was all match, to be fair.

[hogesar 9,707]

42 minutes ago, Creedence Clearwater Couto said:

Stats suggest Wednesday the better side? 21 shots to our 12. Anyway, decent 3 points against a team on form. We’re still getting battered on Saturday though! And a tough run coming up. 

Number of shots don't dictate who was the better side.

They took a huge number of pot shots that were easily blocked. Despite 21 shots they had a lower xG than us.

You're just sad your 10 point estimate between October and January has been blown out the water 😅

[Branston Pickle 3,668]

24 minutes ago, hogesar said:

Number of shots don't dictate who was the better side.

They took a huge number of pot shots that were easily blocked. Despite 21 shots they had a lower xG than us.

You're just sad your 10 point estimate between October and January has been blown out the water 😅

Stats can be woefully misleading.  If you looked at the Blackburn game you’d think ‘how did that happen’ but we were absolutely second best until 3-0 down.

[Capt. Pants 4,262]

Decent performance, but still some negatives to get your teeth into.

Hopefully we can find a better CB than Duffy on the ball out of Hanley, Gibson, Batth and a January new signing.

Sheff Wed were very ordinary 2nd half but credit Wagner for bringing on Stacey as Fisher was a girl against those nasty big boys.

Still don't like the way we play but hey ho.

Don't know why but I got a few Emi flashbacks when Sainz was on the ball. Please Wagner and coaching team develop him; Hernandez should be nowhere near the starting XI.

4 wins in 6, a bit of confidence to take forward to Saturday.

PS might god the empty seats!!!

[Creedence Clearwater Couto 1,289]

8 hours ago, hogesar said:

Number of shots don't dictate who was the better side.

They took a huge number of pot shots that were easily blocked. Despite 21 shots they had a lower xG than us.

You're just sad your 10 point estimate between October and January has been blown out the water 😅

Hardly blown out the water. And a prediction much closer to reality than  what you were saying at the time I made it. I essentially predicted our form would drop off a cliff when Barnes got injured, which happened. You couldn’t see the warning signs, fair enough. It was a majority view. Few of us just have that ability to assess things more objectively - I’m sure you’ll get there, if you keep trying really really hard… 😉

Anyway, I didn’t watch the game. I was simply asking the question if that metric aligned with performance.. obviously it isn’t always the case, but i hazard a guess it’s a key metric that often does align with the better side.

[Jim Smith 2,325]

8 hours ago, hogesar said:

Number of shots don't dictate who was the better side.

They took a huge number of pot shots that were easily blocked. Despite 21 shots they had a lower xG than us.

You're just sad your 10 point estimate between October and January has been blown out the water 😅

It’s not sustainable though against better sides. We were regularly conceding a similar number of shots on goal when we went into our disastrous run a couple of months ago. He has to address the midfield but I just don’t think he sees or gets it. 

[TheGunnShow 5,957]

12 hours ago, hogesar said:

Who, according to all Sunderland fans, couldn't pass for toffee and was why they were happy to switch to younger players who could have the ball at their feet. We play out from the back and that's impossible with Baath. He will be gone end of season and thank god.

Exactly. We basically got him in to be a fourth-choice centre-half after Omo went for decent cash as let's face it, we've had problems where we've been short of centre-halves before.

[Jim Smith 2,325]

22 minutes ago, Creedence Clearwater Couto said:

Hardly blown out the water. And a prediction much closer to reality than  what you were saying at the time I made it. I essentially predicted our form would drop off a cliff when Barnes got injured, which happened. You couldn’t see the warning signs, fair enough. It was a majority view. Few of us just have that ability to assess things more objectively - I’m sure you’ll get there, if you keep trying really really hard… 😉

Anyway, I didn’t watch the game. I was simply asking the question if that metric aligned with performance.. obviously it isn’t always the case, but i hazard a guess it’s a key metric that often does align with the better side.

They weren’t the better side. We actually created quite a few good chances and could have won by more. But then Gunn did have to make a few more saves and there were a few more last ditch blocks than you would expect in a “comfortable” win against a team at the bottom of the table.

Put it this way, if Ipswich are afforded the same space in midfield and on the counter as Wednesday had at times they will not score only one goal.

Thus us the issue with a Wagner set up side and seems to be the one thing he cant or won’t resolve. That said I at least prefer the fact we are creating more chances again. 

[hogesar 9,707]

2 hours ago, Creedence Clearwater Couto said:

Hardly blown out the water. And a prediction much closer to reality than  what you were saying at the time I made it. I essentially predicted our form would drop off a cliff when Barnes got injured, which happened. You couldn’t see the warning signs, fair enough. It was a majority view. Few of us just have that ability to assess things more objectively - I’m sure you’ll get there, if you keep trying really really hard… 😉

Anyway, I didn’t watch the game. I was simply asking the question if that metric aligned with performance.. obviously it isn’t always the case, but i hazard a guess it’s a key metric that often does align with the better side.

You predicted we'd get less than 10 points between October and January. We have 13 in our last 6 games. That pretty catastrophically wrong, no matter how you want to try and twist it 🙂

But on a serious note,  the reason shots aren't a key metric that aligns with the better side is because they're often so strongly dictated by in-game situations. Because we scored early in both halfs, it changes the tactical setup of both sides. We're more conservative and the away team pushes forward more. This is why xG is way more relevant than shots, and even then xG can be misleading so a timeline becomes far more important to judge the game.

Basically, 13 of Sheffield Wednesday's shots came after our 3rd goal.

Of those 13, 5 were off target, 7 were blocked and 1 was saved. The highest xG of any of their shots in this period was 0.12, the average was 0.06. So the shots they were taking were from long distance, with plenty of bodies in the way. Averaging a 1 in 20 chance of going in, basically.

2 hours ago, Jim Smith said:

It’s not sustainable though against better sides. We were regularly conceding a similar number of shots on goal when we went into our disastrous run a couple of months ago. He has to address the midfield but I just don’t think he sees or gets it. 

He see's it which is why we've not pressed so aggressively in our own half any more. But then we're not entertaining enough, even though we should have beat Preston on chances created, the team were boo'd. And we don't have the best squad in the league so you have to surrender a bit of one or the other. 

20 shots generally I agree is unsustainable but in Sheff Weds case it was because they couldn't get through us and were shooting from positions that were never going to result in goals - they ran out of ideas basically. That's different to our terrible run where 20 shots were against us and we were averaging 2xG + against every game.