10 games in: how is the season going?

[Barham Blitz 666]

4 hours ago, Petriix said:

I don't like to make snap judgements on players and managers so have given it the traditional 10 games before making a more informed analysis of the state of things. That way any brief highs and lows will even out, systems will be established and the first choice players will be known. So, here we are...

I think it's fair to say that 16 points, a positive goal difference and being just outside the playoff places really isn't too bad. In the context of our free fall at the end of last season and the significant overhaul of the squad, we're doing way better than I feared we would and are pretty close to the ceiling of how I imagined we would perform.

Yet there's an air of disappointment among many fans with possibly a lack of awareness/acceptance of just how poor things had become, reinforced by a surprisingly strong start to the season leading to a false sense of underachievement.

I think there's actually far more to be positive than negative about:

1. We have a surprisingly coherent plan which is fairly apparent in the way we're trying to play. What's more, it's surprisingly close to really working. 
2. Rowe is actually really really good. None of us could have anticipated that.
3. Sargent is way better than we thought he was when actually playing as a striker.
4. We're actually better without Aarons and Krul.

On the other hand, there are still plenty of negatives:

1. Aside from Rowe, Sargent and Sara, our attacking options are weak. That's why our good plan isn't leading to good results. 
2. There's a lack of resilience and a degree of arrogance which exposes us to conceding goals. 
3. Substitutions exclusively make us worse and the manager doesn't seem to be able to make effective tactical changes.

On balance things are OK. We might make the playoffs but mid table is likely and relegation is almost certainly not on the cards.

This might turn out like Farke's first season and we could kick on next year. More than ever, people need to be patient and not have too high expectations; it's far better than it could have been. 

Tend to agree with most of this.  Before the season started I expressed concern about the lack of pace with Gibson and Duffy at centre half and the potential for that to be exposed with the lack of defensive shape in midfield if the initial press was beaten.  Both have pretty much come to pass, but only since Josh and Barnes were injured - before then I was pleasantly surprised by the effectiveness of the press and the chances it also created.

Plus points - Sara developing a more all round game.  The emergence of Rowe.  The impact of Stacey. Josh looked good pre-injury as he finally got a run in his best position.  Forshaw looks like he might be a sensible addition, particularly if it frees Sara to move forward a little until Barnes comes back.  Tin hat on here, but Gibson is looking more like his last promotion season self. Dimi seems to be more suited to his role under Wagner.  The forward press is much more cohesive and effective - in general we've looked more organised and dynamic (I might not entirely agree with the plan, but at least it is a plan.) We aren't far off the pace points wise despite absolutely wretched luck in terms of the players that are unavailable.

Negatives - we literally have one way of playing and two backup strikers who don't seem able to make it work.  Big holes in midfield when it doesn't work. We now have three really slow and ageing centre backs available plus one promising youngster who doesn't get a game.  In general, Injuries and squad depth.  Onel should still be nowhere near the first team, nor should Springett as yet harsh as it may seem.  Gibbs seems to have stalled after a promising start and Wagner appears to only view him as an attacking midfielder when I really don't think that would be his best position moving forwards either in terms of his career or our immediate needs.  Hwang - unless the scouting team are absolute visionaries and he turns it around against all available evidence - a bizarre signing which could have immense consequences for our season in the circumstances.  Finally we are putting a hell of a lot of workload on Dimi and Stacey with either indifferent or inexperienced backups.  I suspect this will become a problem at some stage this season given how integral both are to the tactical set up.

Jury out on - Fassenacht (looks tidy but a lack of pace exposes him as a wide attacker in this system - surprised he hasn't been tried at #10 if we aren't playing Sara there,) Idah (some good, some bad,) Placheta (some glimmers but still his brain doesn't quite keep up with the rest of him,) Saintz (again some positives but he just hasn't been available enough as yet.)

We are probably slightly ahead of where I thought we would be, but until something like the first XI is back our immediate prospects aren't looking too great.  I have a feeling that the next three months are going to cost us in terms of the prospect of making the playoffs which I think was the only realistic aim from the start of the season.

I would disagree with the assessment that it is arrogance leading to our conceding goals - it is an inherent risk with the way in which they are being told to play.  Which doesn't excuse the occasional brain fart, but there are structural reasons as to why they are putting themselves at risk of the mistake in terms of drawing the press.  Whether we have the players to do that is another question entirely, but given the overall tactical approach we appear welded to it is necessary for the other elements to function effectively.

Solid B rating from me thus far considering what Wagner has had available.  I suspect that might slip before new year though, and I think the playoffs will be beyond us as a result ...

[pete 321]

Any ambition we could spring a surprise promotion push after last seasons poor finish.  Was briefly reignited by our positive start to this however the significant injuries and recent performances and results have shown Wagner to be limited as a tactician.  Errors in team selection and substitution have gone further to stifle hopes for the future.  We have been fortunate in teams played to date who perform to our relevant standard giving a false impression of our abilities.  That is very much how I felt we would perform and I am not surprised.  A promotion\play off pursuit was a pipe dream and we will more likely be nearer the bottom of the division than the top and Wagner will be memory come end of season.

[canarybubbles 1,953]

A lot of us on here said before the season started that we should judge Wagner after ten games. Yet here we are ten games in and, although we haven't had the nightmare start that some of us feared, we can't confidently say where we are either (except for a general certainty that top two is beyond us). We have some very difficult games after the international break - maybe things will be clearer by the end of November.

A win at Coventry would really be a boost. We'd probably be in the top six going into the international break if we did that, but if we lose we'll be down in the middle of the table. Psychologically that's a big difference even if in reality it's only three points at a fairly early point in the season.

Edited October 7, 2023 by canarybubbles

[Mello Yello 2,315]

10 games in: how is the season going?

....It's going up the Hill backwards....

[DraytonBoy 169]

Given the injuries and squad depth being out of the play-off positions only on goal difference after ten games is probably better than most would have expected.

Aside from the lack of quality on the bench the biggest negatives for me are the odd substitutions that Wagner makes at times and the consistent defensive mistakes. It is the current trend to play out from the back but it is a disaster waiting to happen with Duffy and Gibson yet they persist with it, baffling. 

[Christoph Stiepermann 1,157]

39 minutes ago, DraytonBoy said:

Given the injuries and squad depth being out of the play-off positions only on goal difference after ten games is probably better than most would have expected.

Aside from the lack of quality on the bench the biggest negatives for me are the odd substitutions that Wagner makes at times and the consistent defensive mistakes. It is the current trend to play out from the back but it is a disaster waiting to happen with Duffy and Gibson yet they persist with it, baffling. 

Playing out from the back is something I've been banging on about for the past few weeks. One thing I noticed is that we started the season mixing it up a lot more because we seemed to have more confidence in our ability to win second balls with the players we had fit at the time and now we have this habit of going full on crab mode with the ball because we're under a bit more pressure.

I've never said to completely stop playing out from the back, we should still attempt it more often than not but we need to give the opposition more to think about and play more direct at times when they press us. I don't like the idea of doing something every time regardless of what the opposition do and our back 4 really should be experienced enough and have enough game intelligence to know when to play out and when not to. 

There is a quality issue there with our defenders which means that we can't play out quickly and move the opposition out of shape with our passing so we almost have to dither on the ball and make them think we're going to make a mistake so they run out of position to open space but the trouble is we often do make that mistake. That's fine in theory but I think there's a time for it in games and it's not every bloody time and we need to be smarter about when we attempt it and sometimes recognize when we're being overwhelmed and are putting ourselves at unnecessary risk. I don't think Wagner's the type of manager who would force our players to robotically do the same thing over and over again regardless of what is happening in the game, I think it's more our defenders falling back into what feels comfortable for them and not wanting to risk a turnover by over looking after the ball when they feel under pressure and I think we need to be a bit smarter with our build up and play a bit more pragmatically at times.

[Corbs1 90]

Some good points here, I’d also be surprised if arrogance was a factor, but who knows. My pre season hope was top 8 so on course for that. Obviously upset about injuries and dip but sadly this has shown up lack of depth as some have mentioned.

watched WBA last night as I often do and not dissimilar in some ways, manager wise, and very little up front. Who would you prefer Ashante or Idah? Overall feels to me like a new era for the club, and a few years of mid table graft, which is not necessarily a bad thing (after a few yo yo years) if we consolidate off the pitch and if new regime can spot talent and nurture. 

[Robert N. LiM 4,663]

Just bumping this thread because I think it's really interesting, and much more measured than the responses to yesterday's game, which - understandably, by the sound of it - is provoking quite an emotional response. (Just to be clear, I'm not saying that's a bad thing - football is an emotional game, which is why we love it.)

On 07/10/2023 at 02:07, Barham Blitz said:

Yet there's an air of disappointment among many fans with possibly a lack of awareness/acceptance of just how poor things had become, reinforced by a surprisingly strong start to the season leading to a false sense of underachievement.

I think this (which is @Petriix's quote, not @Barham Blitz - apols) is really interesting, because if I remember correctly, virtually no one predicted at the start of the season that we'd be top two. Most had the play-offs as the limits of our ambition and many more were saying mid-table. We're currently seventh, though we are also going in the wrong direction atm and are closer to 15th than 4th.

So I think it's probably the strong start to the season that raised expectations  - and has therefore led to the current frustrations. But also the performance of that other team. Think if we had had exactly the same start to the season, but Ipswich were 14th (or still in the third division) a lot of people would be a lot happier with our current position.

Edited October 8, 2023 by Robert N. LiM

[Barham Blitz 666]

8 minutes ago, Robert N. LiM said:

Just bumping this thread because I think it's really interesting, and much more measured than the responses to yesterday's game, which - understandably, by the sound of it - is provoking quite an emotional response. (Just to be clear, I'm not saying that's a bad thing - football is an emotional game, which is why we love it.)

I think this is really interesting, because if I remember correctly, virtually no one predicted at the start of the season that we'd be top two. Most had the play-offs as the limits of our ambition and many more were saying mid-table. We're currently seventh, though we are also going in the wrong direction atm and are closer to 15th than 4th.

So I think it's probably the strong start to the season that raised expectations  - and has therefore led to the current frustrations. But also the performance of that other team. Think if we had had exactly the same start to the season, but Ipswich were 14th (or still in the third division) a lot of people would be a lot happier with our current position.

 

8 minutes ago, Robert N. LiM said:

Just bumping this thread because I think it's really interesting, and much more measured than the responses to yesterday's game, which - understandably, by the sound of it - is provoking quite an emotional response. (Just to be clear, I'm not saying that's a bad thing - football is an emotional game, which is why we love it.)

I think this is really interesting, because if I remember correctly, virtually no one predicted at the start of the season that we'd be top two. Most had the play-offs as the limits of our ambition and many more were saying mid-table. We're currently seventh, though we are also going in the wrong direction atm and are closer to 15th than 4th.

So I think it's probably the strong start to the season that raised expectations  - and has therefore led to the current frustrations. But also the performance of that other team. Think if we had had exactly the same start to the season, but Ipswich were 14th (or still in the third division) a lot of people would be a lot happier with our current position.

I'd agree, but you have somehow quoted me quoting @Petriix - I'd hate to be accused of plagiarism 🤔😉

[Midlands Yellow 4,118]

Mediocre. 

[norfolkngood 1,097]

1 hour ago, Robert N. LiM said:

 

So I think it's probably the strong start to the season that raised expectations  - and has therefore led to the current frustrations. But also the performance of that other team. Think if we had had exactly the same start to the season, but Ipswich were 14th (or still in the third division) a lot of people would be a lot happier with our current position.

i think that is Exactly right 

Wagner is like a Rollercoaster 

end last season of last season was terrible , i was just get rid of this manager not the right man ,

Start of this season was so good ...... i was wow i was so wrong about wagner ,

Now ...............not just the results the way we are playing last season is creeping back ,

throw in his subs and how he sticks with under performers 

i have no idea who or what wagner is about , 

The biggest thing though this season was signing Hwang instead of a goal scoring striker when we knew how long sarge would be out for who every scouted Hwang as our No 1 target needs a P45

[Robert N. LiM 4,663]

3 hours ago, Barham Blitz said:

 

I'd agree, but you have somehow quoted me quoting @Petriix - I'd hate to be accused of plagiarism 🤔😉

Ha, not sure how that happened, sorry both. Have amended.

[yellowrider120 797]

On 06/10/2023 at 21:16, Petriix said:

I don't like to make snap judgements on players and managers so have given it the traditional 10 games before making a more informed analysis of the state of things. That way any brief highs and lows will even out, systems will be established and the first choice players will be known. So, here we are...

I think it's fair to say that 16 points, a positive goal difference and being just outside the playoff places really isn't too bad. In the context of our free fall at the end of last season and the significant overhaul of the squad, we're doing way better than I feared we would and are pretty close to the ceiling of how I imagined we would perform.

Yet there's an air of disappointment among many fans with possibly a lack of awareness/acceptance of just how poor things had become, reinforced by a surprisingly strong start to the season leading to a false sense of underachievement.

I think there's actually far more to be positive than negative about:

1. We have a surprisingly coherent plan which is fairly apparent in the way we're trying to play. What's more, it's surprisingly close to really working. 
2. Rowe is actually really really good. None of us could have anticipated that.
3. Sargent is way better than we thought he was when actually playing as a striker.
4. We're actually better without Aarons and Krul.

On the other hand, there are still plenty of negatives:

1. Aside from Rowe, Sargent and Sara, our attacking options are weak. That's why our good plan isn't leading to good results. 
2. There's a lack of resilience and a degree of arrogance which exposes us to conceding goals. 
3. Substitutions exclusively make us worse and the manager doesn't seem to be able to make effective tactical changes.

On balance things are OK. We might make the playoffs but mid table is likely and relegation is almost certainly not on the cards.

This might turn out like Farke's first season and we could kick on next year. More than ever, people need to be patient and not have too high expectations; it's far better than it could have been. 

Well from being unfortunate enough to watch that performance yesterday, I have to disagree (although I do agree with many of your other points). We are going to be a terrible side to watch if this 'coherent plan' has as its base the ridiculous spectacle of the two centre halves and keeper gently passing the ball to each other along our six yard line. Not helped at all it must be said by an almost static midfield and forward line providing little by way of outlet for these three players. It was an awful spectacle and home fans were rightly furious and travelling Yarmy showed clear signs of equal frustration.

Add to that the incredible strategy of attempting to convert Gibbs into a No 10 / striker when surely Fassnacht or Argos could be tried in that role. Both are meant to be 'attacking' players after all and we were told when both were signed that..........'they can also play down the middle'.  I'm sorry but with each passing match (particularly away from FCR), if this is supposed to be a 'coherent plan' then God help us!

[shefcanary 2,503]

Just to back up my point that we don't start seasons well, just saw this on Facebook. 

[percy varco 203]

When we win it feels like we get away with it. 
when we loose it has the feeling of inevitability. 
The leadership is missing

[hogesar 9,816]

15 hours ago, percy varco said:

When we win it feels like we get away with it. 
when we loose it has the feeling of inevitability. 
The leadership is missing

I'm not sure this is true. Apart from maybe Stoke at home we've well deserved every win we've had.

[Mello Yello 2,315]

Hopefully during the international break and players back from injury we'll get our sheet together - and come back refreshed and hit the ground running....just like after the last one.... 

[Canario 219]

On 08/10/2023 at 07:34, norfolkngood said:

i think that is Exactly right 

Wagner is like a Rollercoaster 

end last season of last season was terrible , i was just get rid of this manager not the right man ,

Start of this season was so good ...... i was wow i was so wrong about wagner ,

Now ...............not just the results the way we are playing last season is creeping back ,

throw in his subs and how he sticks with under performers 

i have no idea who or what wagner is about , 

The biggest thing though this season was signing Hwang instead of a goal scoring striker when we knew how long sarge would be out for who every scouted Hwang as our No 1 target needs a P45

It's an interesting one. I don't think he was scouted at all. Think it was simply a sweetener from Forest and we took a gamble. 

[nutty nigel 7,663]

10 games in how’s the season going?

We have 17 points and the fan base are still restless. Farke out / Webber Out / Delia Out has quieted down a bit as Pukki and Buendia have started to look the real deal. Hopefully we can kick on and have a decent season.

Oh, wrong season.

But just imagine if Pukki had been injured at the end of August? Would Rhodes or Idah have stepped up and scored the goals. Or if Emi got injured would Cantwell or Vrancic stepped up and made all those goals for Pukki?

Would us fans have stayed patient or said ‘the club’ should have been ready for this and signed two Pukkis or two Emis.

There’s a fine line between success and failure. You basically have to get lucky.
 

[Ulfotto 664]

I think lots of issues come from the rollercoaster that being a Norwich fan over the medium term it has for a long time it’s been boom or bust famine or feast. The only meh season was Farke first season which is now almost a ghost season as no remembers it.

Norwich fans simple have no idea how to handle a season of ups and downs. Even last season it swung wildly between we’re too good for this league to we’re doomed. This attitude is still present this season. And sometimes I think it transmits to the players like at Plymouth were we simple trying too hard to get back into the game when we should have accepted 2-0 and played for half time regroup.
 

We are simple a typical championship team who can beat anyone on there day and lose to anyone at the same time. 

[Gordon Bennett 794]

About how I expected probably in terms of points.

[canarybubbles 1,953]

14 hours ago, nutty nigel said:

10 games in how’s the season going?

We have 17 points and the fan base are still restless. Farke out / Webber Out / Delia Out has quieted down a bit as Pukki and Buendia have started to look the real deal. Hopefully we can kick on and have a decent season.

Oh, wrong season.

But just imagine if Pukki had been injured at the end of August? Would Rhodes or Idah have stepped up and scored the goals. Or if Emi got injured would Cantwell or Vrancic stepped up and made all those goals for Pukki?

Would us fans have stayed patient or said ‘the club’ should have been ready for this and signed two Pukkis or two Emis.

There’s a fine line between success and failure. You basically have to get lucky.
 

We were incredibly lucky that neither Pukki nor Buendia suffered long-term injuries (as far as I can remember - correct me if my memory is failing). I still think our supporting cast were better than our current back-ups, though.

[Olano 102]

We have an old team, considering that I think we have more points then I was expecting after 10 games. So positive start.

[shefcanary 2,503]

14 hours ago, nutty nigel said:

10 games in how’s the season going?

We have 17 points and the fan base are still restless. Farke out / Webber Out / Delia Out has quieted down a bit as Pukki and Buendia have started to look the real deal. Hopefully we can kick on and have a decent season.

Oh, wrong season.

But just imagine if Pukki had been injured at the end of August? Would Rhodes or Idah have stepped up and scored the goals. Or if Emi got injured would Cantwell or Vrancic stepped up and made all those goals for Pukki?

Would us fans have stayed patient or said ‘the club’ should have been ready for this and signed two Pukkis or two Emis.

There’s a fine line between success and failure. You basically have to get lucky.
 

Yes, luck does have a part to play. But, and it is a big but, you also want to see players and coaching staff learning lessons and reacting to the opposition "sussing us out", that reaction potentially generating some "good" luck favouring the brave.  However you don't deserve luck if you don't try anything different, either from match to match, or better still within matches. Or, when you do try something new, it is so negative as at Coventry, you really, really don't deserve any luck for not being bold.

As I've said, we are where we should have expected to be historically given our notorious mixed start to campaigns, let's hope we see something new moving forward perhaps to generate a bit of positive luck for once. 

[nutty nigel 7,663]

2 hours ago, canarybubbles said:

We were incredibly lucky that neither Pukki nor Buendia suffered long-term injuries (as far as I can remember - correct me if my memory is failing). I still think our supporting cast were better than our current back-ups, though.

Our supporting cast was much the same supporting Maddison the previous season when we finished 14th.

[nutty nigel 7,663]

2 hours ago, shefcanary said:

Yes, luck does have a part to play. But, and it is a big but, you also want to see players and coaching staff learning lessons and reacting to the opposition "sussing us out", that reaction potentially generating some "good" luck favouring the brave.  However you don't deserve luck if you don't try anything different, either from match to match, or better still within matches. Or, when you do try something new, it is so negative as at Coventry, you really, really don't deserve any luck for not being bold.

As I've said, we are where we should have expected to be historically given our notorious mixed start to campaigns, let's hope we see something new moving forward perhaps to generate a bit of positive luck for once. 

That’s not my point. However the complaints about Farke tactics at the end of 17/18 and start of 18/19 were at least equal to the discontent now. If Pukki had Sarge’s injury in August 2018 Farke’s tenure could well have been over by bonfire night.