10 games in: how is the season going?

[Petriix 3,218]

I don't like to make snap judgements on players and managers so have given it the traditional 10 games before making a more informed analysis of the state of things. That way any brief highs and lows will even out, systems will be established and the first choice players will be known. So, here we are...

I think it's fair to say that 16 points, a positive goal difference and being just outside the playoff places really isn't too bad. In the context of our free fall at the end of last season and the significant overhaul of the squad, we're doing way better than I feared we would and are pretty close to the ceiling of how I imagined we would perform.

Yet there's an air of disappointment among many fans with possibly a lack of awareness/acceptance of just how poor things had become, reinforced by a surprisingly strong start to the season leading to a false sense of underachievement.

I think there's actually far more to be positive than negative about:

1. We have a surprisingly coherent plan which is fairly apparent in the way we're trying to play. What's more, it's surprisingly close to really working. 
2. Rowe is actually really really good. None of us could have anticipated that.
3. Sargent is way better than we thought he was when actually playing as a striker.
4. We're actually better without Aarons and Krul.

On the other hand, there are still plenty of negatives:

1. Aside from Rowe, Sargent and Sara, our attacking options are weak. That's why our good plan isn't leading to good results. 
2. There's a lack of resilience and a degree of arrogance which exposes us to conceding goals. 
3. Substitutions exclusively make us worse and the manager doesn't seem to be able to make effective tactical changes.

On balance things are OK. We might make the playoffs but mid table is likely and relegation is almost certainly not on the cards.

This might turn out like Farke's first season and we could kick on next year. More than ever, people need to be patient and not have too high expectations; it's far better than it could have been. 

[TheGunnShow 7,377]

Generally agree with this, but I don't agree with the notion of arrogance, I just think we're set up in a rather attacking manner, especially with two full-backs who love to overlap. I'd also say that re. the Swansea substitutions, if Idah had plonked that header in from Przemek's cross then that would have been justifiably lauded as a brilliant pair of switches that could have won it for us - it worked precisely how it should have done, but Idah couldn't keep it down.

If you're throwing Placheta and Hernandez on as subs against a pressing side, it's obvious that the aim is to counter and push them back. It does look like we have a plan B in development.

[Christoph Stiepermann 1,261]

In terms of points and position about where I was expecting us to be. We've scored more goals than I thought we would but also let in a whole lot more as well. We've been so inconsistent so far though and I think that's what's throwing people off. We've had games where we look too good for this level and games where we look like we'd be in a relegation fight so it's made it really hard to make judgement. 

I expected us to be solid and consistent this year if a bit unspectacular but we've been all over the place. I'm confident in saying that we won't finish top 2 or get relegated but as we don't have a sort of baseline performance to go off of we could just as easily finish anywhere between those two extremes from what I've seen so far. 

We have an entertaining way of playing that causes the opposition problems but it only really works when we have most of our first choice fit and in decent form. 

Rowe is brilliant and I never saw that coming. Spingett has impressed me recent too, he's another one that I expected nothing from this year. We have some really good young players but they're so young that they're still inconsistent. 

I've always rated Sargent but as a Championship level player. He should have been starting over Pukki more last year.

Aarons was always professional but was playing well within himself last year. Stacy is a worse footballer but gives his all and that has translated into us being much better than we were last year at RB. Dunno what happened to Krul but he just seemed to lose his sharpness and agility last year, might be that his bad injury has finally caught up with him. 

Agree 100% with your last 3 points. 

Feels like a weird season so far and it's still hard to make judgement 10 games in taking into account our usual injury woes and given how inconsistent we've been. I'm not unhappy but not thrilled either. 

[cambridgeshire canary 7,797]

Lost to Rotherham and Plymouth already.

 

How do you think it's going?

[Pyro Pete 2,353]

Agree with much of that.

I was pleasantly surprised at how organised and structured the team was at the start of the the season.

What has become evident though, is how much Wagner's approach was built around playing two effective strikers (Sargent & Barnes).

While Sargent is incredibly unlucky to suffer a long-term injury when he finally gets his chance to play as a no.9. For the club not to have proper cover for both of these players is nothing short of negligent.

I don't blame Idah or Hwang. Quality aside, neither player looks suited to the way Wagner wants to play.

[Petriix 3,218]

52 minutes ago, cambridgeshire canary said:

Lost to Rotherham and Plymouth already.

 

How do you think it's going?

I think teams which get promoted don't tend to get thrashed 6-2, but not many teams score as many as we have without challenge for the top 6.

Edited October 6, 2023 by Petriix

[daly 551]

Would imagine mid table at best

Got to be the worst squad we’ve had for a number of years

[Wacky Waving Inflatable Arm Flailing Tube Man 4,615]

At the end of last season I said:

"I wasn't terribly enthused by his appointment in the first place and aside from the new manager bounce over the first eight games or so, I haven't seen anything from him to convince me that he's the right man to take us forward. 

There's little chance of him not being here come August though, so I'll continue to back him and he needs to be given 12-15 games or so next season, but I'd be very surprised if he gets us promoted."

At the start of August I said:

"Finishing position: 9th. I think we'll see a similar season to last year. A new sporting director may weaken Wagner's position, and the trigger may be pulled after a poor run mid-season leaves us in mid-table. We'll get a new coach who sees a slight upturn in fortunes but not enough to reach the Playoffs, all whilst trying to put his own stamp on the team."

The day after the window closed I said:

"I'd have been happy to cull Sorensen and one of Placheta or Springett (the latter on loan) in order to get in another forward considering Sargent's injury."

All of those comments are very negative by my usual standards, but I stand by them. I have been impressed by the fact that Wagner has a clear plan and has brought in players to fit it, and it was working when we had everyone fit, but we are short in attack which was pretty clear when the window closed and is even more obvious now Barnes is out for a bit.

All in all, I think we'll be inconsistent, which is surprising given the experience and apparent mental toughness we signed in the summer, and I still think there's less chance of Wagner seeing out the season than not. 

Hopefully I'm wrong and we will start showing signs of consistency, but I think we'll just miss out on the playoffs.

[daly 551]

13 minutes ago, Pyro Pete said:

Agree with much of that.

I was pleasantly surprised at how organised and structured the team was at the start of the the season.

What has become evident though, is how much Wagner's approach was built around playing two effective strikers (Sargent & Barnes).

While Sargent is incredibly unlucky to suffer a long-term injury when he finally gets his chance to play as a no.9. For the club not to have proper cover for both of these players is nothing short of negligent.

I don't blame Idah or Hwang. Quality aside, neither player looks suited to the way Wagner wants to play.

Why blame someone whose on £20000 to £30000 a week.

One who would be lucky to start in a Div 1 squad and the other who really should have took up another occupation 

[Mullet 293]

38 minutes ago, Petriix said:

I don't like to make snap judgements on players and managers so have given it the traditional 10 games before making a more informed analysis of the state of things. That way any brief highs and lows will even out, systems will be established and the first choice players will be known. So, here we are...

I think it's fair to say that 16 points, a positive goal difference and being just outside the playoff places really isn't too bad. In the context of our free fall at the end of last season and the significant overhaul of the squad, we're doing way better than I feared we would and are pretty close to the ceiling of how I imagined we would perform.

Yet there's an air of disappointment among many fans with possibly a lack of awareness/acceptance of just how poor things had become, reinforced by a surprisingly strong start to the season leading to a false sense of underachievement.

I think there's actually far more to be positive than negative about:

1. We have a surprisingly coherent plan which is fairly apparent in the way we're trying to play. What's more, it's surprisingly close to really working. 
2. Rowe is actually really really good. None of us could have anticipated that.
3. Sargent is way better than we thought he was when actually playing as a striker.
4. We're actually better without Aarons and Krul.

On the other hand, there are still plenty of negatives:

1. Aside from Rowe, Sargent and Sara, our attacking options are weak. That's why our good plan isn't leading to good results. 
2. There's a lack of resilience and a degree of arrogance which exposes us to conceding goals. 
3. Substitutions exclusively make us worse and the manager doesn't seem to be able to make effective tactical changes.

On balance things are OK. We might make the playoffs but mid table is likely and relegation is almost certainly not on the cards.

This might turn out like Farke's first season and we could kick on next year. More than ever, people need to be patient and not have too high expectations; it's far better than it could have been. 

I think without the loss of our two strikers we would currently be top3. The frustration is we still give away sloppy goals which we haven't cured for the past 5 years.

 

 

[Terminally Yellow 2,614]

41 minutes ago, Petriix said:

1. Aside from Rowe, Sargent and Sara, our attacking options are weak. That's why our good plan isn't leading to good results. 
2. There's a lack of resilience and a degree of arrogance which exposes us to conceding goals. 
3. Substitutions exclusively make us worse and the manager doesn't seem to be able to make effective tactical changes.

This is spot on, nail on the head stuff. Couldn't have put it better myself.

44 minutes ago, Petriix said:

1. Sargent is way better than we thought he was when actually playing as a striker.

I take a little issue with this. I think Sargent has greatly benefitted from the presence and mentoring of Barnes. 

[nutty nigel 7,902]

I'm still not throwing Hwang into the fire. Pre-season was obviously good and losing Sarge was a massive blow. Hwang has been here a month but there was an international break in that. He was never going to hit the ground running. Idah has done fine but I worry he's not instinctive in front of goal. That missed header seemed to be lack of instinct but he's ahead of where Carlton Morris was at this age. However folk want to spin it losing both Sarge and Barnes was cruel. But if we're still in touch of the top six when they return there's a chance we could make the play offs.

Rowe is an unexpected plus. Stacey is better than most of us thought. Sara is amazing. We still have Nunez to return.

Duffy's not quite what we were hoping yet. We still give away cheap goals.

In balance I still think we can at least match or beat most of the expectations posted on here at the start of the season. 

 

[Midlands Yellow 4,682]

9 minutes ago, nutty nigel said:

I'm still not throwing Hwang into the fire. Pre-season was obviously good and losing Sarge was a massive blow. Hwang has been here a month but there was an international break in that. He was never going to hit the ground running. Idah has done fine but I worry he's not instinctive in front of goal. That missed header seemed to be lack of instinct but he's ahead of where Carlton Morris was at this age. However folk want to spin it losing both Sarge and Barnes was cruel. But if we're still in touch of the top six when they return there's a chance we could make the play offs.

Rowe is an unexpected plus. Stacey is better than most of us thought. Sara is amazing. We still have Nunez to return.

Duffy's not quite what we were hoping yet. We still give away cheap goals.

In balance I still think we can at least match or beat most of the expectations posted on here at the start of the season. 

 

Great post Nutty, thanks for your thoughts. If anyone can better that I’d like to read it. 

Edited October 6, 2023 by Midlands Yellow

[CANARYKING 707]

Backwards

[Duncan Edwards 2,424]

“Substitutions exclusively make us worse and the manager doesn't seem to be able to make effective tactical changes”

I’ve mentioned elsewhere that this, essentially, highlights our current lack of depth. You can choose if you think it’s because of the series of injuries we’ve picked up or because we’ve recruited badly, but the only way I can see - currently - that Wagner can make substitutions that positively impact our performance would be to name a weaker (wrong) starting XI.

Sainz, Hanley, Sargent, Barnes, Nunez would certainly give us more attacking depth and more choice to positively influence games. A bit like Leicester did against us. 

[nutty nigel 7,902]

9 minutes ago, Midlands Yellow said:

Great post Nutty, thanks for your thoughts. If anyone can better that I’d like to read it. 

Many can better it. Unfortunately you're not one of them...

[Capt. Pants 5,008]

Points and table position wise we might be better than I expected. The quality of the league isn't great though, hence the binners doing reasonably well.

I'm not really getting what Wagnerball is though if I'm really honest, too much chopping and changing.

[Midlands Yellow 4,682]

40 minutes ago, nutty nigel said:

Many can better it. Unfortunately you're not one of them...

 

41 minutes ago, nutty nigel said:

Many can better it. Unfortunately you're not one of them...

Fantastic!! See you at Coventry tomorrow. 

[hogesar 10,762]

1 hour ago, cambridgeshire canary said:

Lost to Rotherham and Plymouth already.

 

How do you think it's going?

Tell me you don't understand the championship without telling me you don't understand the championship. 

Good post @Petriix and much to agree with. Like you, one of the biggest positives is its very clear what we are trying to do - Wagner has had an impact over pre season..

There's an argument that it's no longer the right thing to persevere with due to injuries but I'm not sure we have a better alternative and we've seen how bad things can get when players are asked to chop and change how they play.

We are capable of play offs but need far more luck on the injury front. Our starting eleven can give anyone bar Leicester a proper game. Our bench...not so much.

[nutty nigel 7,902]

25 minutes ago, Midlands Yellow said:

 

Fantastic!! See you at Coventry tomorrow. 

**** wouldn't that spoil an away day.

[Midlands Yellow 4,682]

9 minutes ago, nutty nigel said:

**** wouldn't that spoil an away day.

I guess you’re not coming. 

[S_81 1,101]

Had a largely easy start, were flattered by that fact - but Wagner and indeed the lack of depth of talent in this squad is already being exposed. I still think a better manager, who does the basics well, gets more from this lot however. No way do we make play offs under Wagner. Not a prayer. 

[Midlands Yellow 4,682]

12 minutes ago, hogesar said:

Tell me you don't understand the championship without telling me you don't understand the championship. 

Good post @Petriix and much to agree with. Like you, one of the biggest positives is its very clear what we are trying to do - Wagner has had an impact over pre season..

There's an argument that it's no longer the right thing to persevere with due to injuries but I'm not sure we have a better alternative and we've seen how bad things can get when players are asked to chop and change how they play.

We are capable of play offs but need far more luck on the injury front. Our starting eleven can give anyone bar Leicester a proper game. Our bench...not so much.

No excuses for missing the top 6 then? Or are we exclusive for having injuries to main players? 

[hogesar 10,762]

9 minutes ago, Midlands Yellow said:

No excuses for missing the top 6 then? Or are we exclusive for having injuries to main players? 

I dont know how many teams tend to make the top 6 with their two top strikers out injured for months, do you?

I cant think of an example and it certainly doesn't apply to any of the current top 6 or last seasons.

[lake district canary 4,830]

The Leicester game showed up where we are in the pecking order - we are not one of the best teams in the championship - and that was I think a shock to the players to realise.  The 2-6 was a shocking aftermath of that imo, Plymouth capitalising on some loss of belief in our ranks. A freak result, maybe, but one that should have been a wake up call - but at least we beat Birmingham and should have got something at Swansea.

That we are not one of the best is clear - but that could change with the return of the best players and a bit of momentum. When Wagner got Huddersfield promoted, he did it with a strong run after Christmas, so there is time to get back up there.  f

So to answer the op, it's not going great, but there is a possibility of better things to come - and we clearly have some very good players for this league. For me the four games against Leeds and Ipswich are crucial to our season mentally. Four very meaningful games - and 12 points at stake too, which is huge. Maybe the Farke showdown on the 21st October will be a special day for us to lay some ghosts and get the season back on to a good track. We could all do with a bit of a boost and that match is a great opportunity!

[Midlands Yellow 4,682]

3 minutes ago, hogesar said:

I dont know how many teams tend to make the top 6 with their two top strikers out injured for months, do you?

I cant think of an example and it certainly doesn't apply to any of the current top 6 or last seasons.

Well we are playing a team tomorrow with their entire first choice midfield wiped out and best full back to boot. Let’s stop pretending we’re hard done by. 

[hogesar 10,762]

22 minutes ago, Midlands Yellow said:

Well we are playing a team tomorrow with their entire first choice midfield wiped out and best full back to boot. Let’s stop pretending we’re hard done by. 

Yes they also have injuries and are several places below us in the table as a result. That doesn't really detract from the point,  it supports it 

[Google Bot 3,929]

3 hours ago, Petriix said:

I think there's actually far more to be positive than negative about:

1. We have a surprisingly coherent plan which is fairly apparent in the way we're trying to play. What's more, it's surprisingly close to really working. 
2. Rowe is actually really really good. None of us could have anticipated that.
3. Sargent is way better than we thought he was when actually playing as a striker.
4. We're actually better without Aarons and Krul.

5. With a fully fit squad we could be a real threat.   It's not like we haven't got the players at the club, we've had really poor luck with Barnes, Sarge and Sainz all being injured.  Especially on top of the club captain and CB stalwart.

3 hours ago, Petriix said:

Aside from Rowe, Sargent and Sara, our attacking options are weak. That's why our good plan isn't leading to good results. 

As above, I think (hope?) Sainz is going to add to those options. 

And don't write off Hwang quite yet, there's goals in him but we've got too many ball carriers who aren't willing to feed him.  As great as Rowe has been in those goal scoring moments and running at defenders, he needs to add that little bit of variance to his game where he will feed a team-mate early - it will provide him more space in the longterm too.

Edited October 6, 2023 by Google Bot

[nutty nigel 7,902]

1 hour ago, Midlands Yellow said:

I guess you’re not coming. 

Never an opinion just squit.

You'd make an ace mother-in-law to some poor soul...

[City fan 78]

3 hours ago, Petriix said:

I don't like to make snap judgements on players and managers so have given it the traditional 10 games before making a more informed analysis of the state of things. That way any brief highs and lows will even out, systems will be established and the first choice players will be known. So, here we are...

I think it's fair to say that 16 points, a positive goal difference and being just outside the playoff places really isn't too bad. In the context of our free fall at the end of last season and the significant overhaul of the squad, we're doing way better than I feared we would and are pretty close to the ceiling of how I imagined we would perform.

Yet there's an air of disappointment among many fans with possibly a lack of awareness/acceptance of just how poor things had become, reinforced by a surprisingly strong start to the season leading to a false sense of underachievement.

I think there's actually far more to be positive than negative about:

1. We have a surprisingly coherent plan which is fairly apparent in the way we're trying to play. What's more, it's surprisingly close to really working. 
2. Rowe is actually really really good. None of us could have anticipated that.
3. Sargent is way better than we thought he was when actually playing as a striker.
4. We're actually better without Aarons and Krul.

On the other hand, there are still plenty of negatives:

1. Aside from Rowe, Sargent and Sara, our attacking options are weak. That's why our good plan isn't leading to good results. 
2. There's a lack of resilience and a degree of arrogance which exposes us to conceding goals. 
3. Substitutions exclusively make us worse and the manager doesn't seem to be able to make effective tactical changes.

On balance things are OK. We might make the playoffs but mid table is likely and relegation is almost certainly not on the cards.

This might turn out like Farke's first season and we could kick on next year. More than ever, people need to be patient and not have too high expectations; it's far better than it could have been. 

Happy clapper.