Turning point for Smith or a false dawn?

[Hank shoots Skyler 2,094]

I’d say it was a very odd game today, but in a season of bizarre games, it was really nothing out of the ordinary.

Watching live, for the first 70 minutes I thought it was one of the worst performances of the season - especially in possession. Players didn’t look like they’d played together before, we couldn’t string meaningful passes together, we were having to work frantically even just to maintain possession in a defensive position. There were no obvious avenues for breaking forwards. Why was it so hard for us to play, why was everything so incoherent and sluggish?

And when we scored from our first real attack I barely felt like celebrating, such had the lack of bravery / intensity / quality drained me as a spectator. It just felt so wholly undeserved and as if a result here, in this continued vein, would be delaying the inevitable rather than actually doing us any long term favours as a club.

I did hold some hope that the goal would spark some life into the team, but alas we immediately continued in the same hapless rhythm; with Stoke almost immediately equalising. And that feeling didn’t improve in the opening phases of the second half either. Not until we scored the second after the subs of Nunez and Cantwell did we finally look like a functional side. In these moments we were bright and effective and the fans including myself were on board with the team. Finally some moments to actually get behind in the game!

However the overall feeling after the game is not so positive for me.

I made optimistic posts at the start of the season when I felt that we were going to turn around the wretched first 3 games, because it seemed obvious the performances overall were good enough to yield results. Using the same kind of logic, today I just felt like the opposite, the first 70 minutes were so incredibly dysfunctional, but we fortunately scored from our only two meaningful attacks in that time. Yes the 15 minute spell after the second to get the third was excellent, but I have to question if the performance ever warranted us being in position to loosen the shackles in the first place. IMO, it really, really didn’t.

There are shades of the Alex Neil failed side here. Blowing hot and cold. Turning up one week and then putting in a no show the next. Only this team is on a whole other level. One minute we can be playing like a bunch of total strangers and the next we look like the best side in the championship… before reverting back to looking totally inept (albeit we have generally defended okay during these spells of ineptness with the ball).

That has generally been the flow of games since the start of the season, and the 20/30 minute patches of good football were enough to edge us ahead in that 9 game unbeaten run, with a bit of luck too, but more recently it’s not been enough and that has led to results drying up and our confidence unwinding, these dominating periods in games shortening in a vicious cycle. 

Today’s game represented the bottom in terms of this spiral, zero confidence on the ball, no flow or cohesion to any of our attacks, no players wanting to take risks to progress the ball from deep. But we somehow got to 2-0 up and all of a sudden we were capable again. Playing the best we had and grabbing a third goal, with chances to get more. Players once more looked up for it, the crowd similarly energised.

So where does that leave us? Is it a genuine turning point or has it just delayed the inevitable for Smith?

It feels to me like for every positive today there is an equal or stronger negative.

Great result, good to get 3 points, and a genuinely pleasing spell of football after scoring the second, yes, but we would be drawing or losing more often that not if we replayed the performance up to the second goal again. And in any case, does a 15 minute strong spell outweigh the first 70 minutes?

Great substitutions to change the game, yes, but why wasn’t Cantwell starting? Why start Dowell when he’s recovering from illness? Smith even used that as an excuse for his performance post game - well why did you pick him then! The whole starting line up just felt like pure desperation from Smith - a man on his last legs scrambling to pull a rabbit out of the hat.

I think we can all hold on to the result as well as that spell towards the end of the game, and hope that it provides a proper boost to the players for Wednesday’s game. But based on the flow of the season so far, it’s hard to see if we can ever improve enough under Smith to do better than the playoffs. Consistency is key and we are simply far too volatile. I had thought the good run of results would breed more success and improvement in performances but that didn’t worked out - to say the least. So how can one good result suddenly change everything now?

Ultimately I fear that today has just given Smith some free extra rope to use up which he doesn’t particularly deserve, and less time for a new coach to work with some clearly very capable players. Of course I would be genuinely pleased if he could turn it all round from here and prove the fans wrong!

Edited October 29, 2022 by Hank shoots Skyler

[Nexus_Canary 1,028]

Love it if it was a turning point - but false dawn more likely.

Dont forget Stoke missed a couple of sitters as well so should have been 3-3?

QPR will be a tougher game.
My biggest fear is that this win has bought Smith more time to make a deeper mess. 

Edited October 29, 2022 by Nexus_Canary

[KeiranShikari 1,470]

Neither.

It's more of the same. We'll beat bad teams and lose to half decent sides more often than not.

[Branston Pickle 3,706]

Far too early to say.  There was some good stuff and some poor stuff, so who knows.  Hopefully we will go on a bit of a run up to the World Cup break, at least be in a decent position for the restart.

[Barham Blitz 664]

14 minutes ago, Hank shoots Skyler said:

I’d say it was a very odd game today, but in a season of bizarre games, it was really nothing out of the ordinary.

Watching live, for the first 70 minutes I thought it was one of the worst performances of the season - especially in possession. Players didn’t look like they’d played together before, we couldn’t string meaningful passes together, we were having to work frantically even just to maintain possession in a defensive position. There were no obvious avenues for breaking forwards. Why was it so hard for us to play, why was everything so incoherent and sluggish?

And when we scored from our first real attack I barely felt like celebrating, such had the lack of bravery / intensity / quality drained me as a spectator. It just felt so wholly undeserved and as if a result here, in this continued vein, would be delaying the inevitable rather than actually doing us any long term favours as a club.

I did hold some hope that the goal would spark some life into the team, but alas we immediately continued in the same hapless rhythm; with Stoke almost immediately equalising. And that feeling didn’t improve in the opening phases of the second half either. Not until we scored the second after the subs of Nunez and Cantwell did we finally look like a functional side. In these moments we were bright and effective and the fans including myself were on board with the team. Finally some moments to actually get behind in the game!

However the overall feeling after the game is not so positive for me.

I made optimistic posts at the start of the season when I felt that we were going to turn around the wretched first 3 games, because it seemed obvious the performances overall were good enough to yield results. Using the same kind of logic, today I just felt like the opposite, the first 70 minutes were so incredibly dysfunctional, but we fortunately scored from our only two meaningful attacks in that time. Yes the 15 minute spell after the second to get the third was excellent, but I have to question if the performance ever warranted us being in position to loosen the shackles in the first place. IMO, it really, really didn’t.

There are shades of the Alex Neil failed side here. Blowing hot and cold. Turning up one week and then putting in a no show the next. Only this team is on a whole other level. One minute we can be playing like a bunch of total strangers and the next we look like the best side in the championship… before reverting back to looking totally inept (albeit we have generally defended okay during these spells of ineptness with the ball).

That has generally been the flow of games since the start of the season, and the 20/30 minute patches of good football were enough to edge us ahead in that 9 game unbeaten run, with a bit of luck too, but more recently it’s not been enough and that has led to results drying up and our confidence unwinding, these dominating periods in games shortening in a vicious cycle. 

Today’s game represented the bottom in terms of this spiral, zero confidence on the ball, no flow or cohesion to any of our attacks, no players wanting to take risks to progress the ball from deep. But we somehow got to 2-0 up and all of a sudden we were capable again. Playing the best we had and grabbing a third goal, with chances to get more. Players once more looked up for it, the crowd similarly energised.

So where does that leave us? Is it a genuine turning point or has it just delayed the inevitable for Smith?

It feels to me like for every positive today there is an equal or stronger negative.

Great result, good to get 3 points, and a genuinely pleasing spell of football after scoring the second, yes, but we would be drawing or losing more often that not if we replayed the performance up to the second goal again. And in any case, does a 15 minute strong spell outweigh the first 70 minutes?

Great substitutions to change the game, yes, but why wasn’t Cantwell starting? Why start Dowell when he’s recovering from illness? Smith even used that as an excuse for his performance post game - well why did you pick him then! The whole starting line up just felt like pure desperation from Smith - a man on his last legs scrambling to pull a rabbit out of the hat.

I think we can all hold on to the result as well as that spell towards the end of the game, and hope that it provides a proper boost to the players for Wednesday’s game. But based on the flow of the season so far, it’s hard to see if we can ever improve enough under Smith to do better than the playoffs. Consistency is key and we are simply far too volatile. I had thought the good run of results would breed more success and improvement in performances but that didn’t worked out - to say the least. So how can one good result suddenly change everything now?

Ultimately I fear that today has just given Smith some free extra rope to use up which he doesn’t particularly deserve, and less time for a new coach to work with some clearly very capable players. Of course I would be genuinely pleased if he could turn it all round from here and prove the fans wrong!

Out of reactions but agree entirely.

[Petriix 2,853]

I suppose we simply can't tell at this point. I though we were much more solid out of possession though. The tactical aspects were generally good. We just seemed to lack confidence and cohesion. Dowell was incredibly poor, otherwise everyone was doing the basics right. 

[Pyro Pete 1,927]

For me, it mostly looked like two mid-table teams scrapping it out.

But we have the luxury of some real quality players that can still win us games, regardless of the ineptitude of the coaches.

The sad thing is, failure to get promoted will likely mean we will lose such players. Which, I believe, is why many fans think Smith & co. need replacing now.

[WD40 720]

Is it as simple as we can’t play Pukki and Sargent together? Ultimately when they got into a rhythm it worked (against that level of opposition). Sargent doesn’t work as a winger and never has. His confidence sparked briefly while Pukki was out of the team, but still looks lost on the right. 

[Dean Coneys boots 1,407]

That result owed more to Stoke missing their chances than our team controlling things. And that has to be a worry. If they had buried the free header less than a minute after our first- it would have gone south in my opinion. As we were playing very badly with awful possession retention. And even after they missed that - there were two more free headers missed. Against a decent side we would have folded. This is no new dawn 

[TeemuVanBasten 3,327]

It was home game against a bottom half side who had lost their last two games, anything other than a win would have been unacceptable, yet expectations amongst some have already been lowered so much that they are treating this like a big win. 

In my opinion it's  a dead cat bounce, dreading Burnley away.

[TeemuVanBasten 3,327]

9 hours ago, Hank shoots Skyler said:

I’d say it was a very odd game today, but in a season of bizarre games, it was really nothing out of the ordinary.

Watching live, for the first 70 minutes I thought it was one of the worst performances of the season - especially in possession. Players didn’t look like they’d played together before, we couldn’t string meaningful passes together, we were having to work frantically even just to maintain possession in a defensive position. There were no obvious avenues for breaking forwards. Why was it so hard for us to play, why was everything so incoherent and sluggish?

And when we scored from our first real attack I barely felt like celebrating, such had the lack of bravery / intensity / quality drained me as a spectator. It just felt so wholly undeserved and as if a result here, in this continued vein, would be delaying the inevitable rather than actually doing us any long term favours as a club.

I did hold some hope that the goal would spark some life into the team, but alas we immediately continued in the same hapless rhythm; with Stoke almost immediately equalising. And that feeling didn’t improve in the opening phases of the second half either. Not until we scored the second after the subs of Nunez and Cantwell did we finally look like a functional side. In these moments we were bright and effective and the fans including myself were on board with the team. Finally some moments to actually get behind in the game!

However the overall feeling after the game is not so positive for me.

I made optimistic posts at the start of the season when I felt that we were going to turn around the wretched first 3 games, because it seemed obvious the performances overall were good enough to yield results. Using the same kind of logic, today I just felt like the opposite, the first 70 minutes were so incredibly dysfunctional, but we fortunately scored from our only two meaningful attacks in that time. Yes the 15 minute spell after the second to get the third was excellent, but I have to question if the performance ever warranted us being in position to loosen the shackles in the first place. IMO, it really, really didn’t.

There are shades of the Alex Neil failed side here. Blowing hot and cold. Turning up one week and then putting in a no show the next. Only this team is on a whole other level. One minute we can be playing like a bunch of total strangers and the next we look like the best side in the championship… before reverting back to looking totally inept (albeit we have generally defended okay during these spells of ineptness with the ball).

That has generally been the flow of games since the start of the season, and the 20/30 minute patches of good football were enough to edge us ahead in that 9 game unbeaten run, with a bit of luck too, but more recently it’s not been enough and that has led to results drying up and our confidence unwinding, these dominating periods in games shortening in a vicious cycle. 

Today’s game represented the bottom in terms of this spiral, zero confidence on the ball, no flow or cohesion to any of our attacks, no players wanting to take risks to progress the ball from deep. But we somehow got to 2-0 up and all of a sudden we were capable again. Playing the best we had and grabbing a third goal, with chances to get more. Players once more looked up for it, the crowd similarly energised.

So where does that leave us? Is it a genuine turning point or has it just delayed the inevitable for Smith?

It feels to me like for every positive today there is an equal or stronger negative.

Great result, good to get 3 points, and a genuinely pleasing spell of football after scoring the second, yes, but we would be drawing or losing more often that not if we replayed the performance up to the second goal again. And in any case, does a 15 minute strong spell outweigh the first 70 minutes?

Great substitutions to change the game, yes, but why wasn’t Cantwell starting? Why start Dowell when he’s recovering from illness? Smith even used that as an excuse for his performance post game - well why did you pick him then! The whole starting line up just felt like pure desperation from Smith - a man on his last legs scrambling to pull a rabbit out of the hat.

I think we can all hold on to the result as well as that spell towards the end of the game, and hope that it provides a proper boost to the players for Wednesday’s game. But based on the flow of the season so far, it’s hard to see if we can ever improve enough under Smith to do better than the playoffs. Consistency is key and we are simply far too volatile. I had thought the good run of results would breed more success and improvement in performances but that didn’t worked out - to say the least. So how can one good result suddenly change everything now?

Ultimately I fear that today has just given Smith some free extra rope to use up which he doesn’t particularly deserve, and less time for a new coach to work with some clearly very capable players. Of course I would be genuinely pleased if he could turn it all round from here and prove the fans wrong!

What is it also with these kicks to the opposition keeper from Gunn, must have happened like 6 times. 

[GodlyOtsemobor 2,422]

False dawn, definitely false dawn.

It's just the pattern, we beat the teams that aren't any good themselves, but we won't do anything against any team actually doing alright for themselves. 

QPR Wednesday for example, I fully expect Deano to tinker with the line up, probably revert back to 4-3-3 and for us to put in another hapless performance. 

I said it in another thread that HOPEFULLY it's a turning point for US, but for Deano? I doubt it, he needs ALOT more to turn things around. 

[A Load of Squit 5,224]

We only won because Mars was aligned with Orions Belt.

[NFN FC 1,123]

9 hours ago, WD40 said:

Is it as simple as we can’t play Pukki and Sargent together? Ultimately when they got into a rhythm it worked (against that level of opposition). Sargent doesn’t work as a winger and never has. His confidence sparked briefly while Pukki was out of the team, but still looks lost on the right. 

I think it is. I'd like to see us set up as a 4231 with Pukki up top, ramsay cantwell and Sara behind, gibbs and hayden sitting in DM. 

Sarge can be on the bench ready to come on with maybe Argos to attack those tired legs. 

[Jim Smith 2,349]

There was some great football for the goals and attacking players second half but defensively it was very ropey and if you break it down we still only played well for 20 minutes or so.

we still appear no closer to knowing our best side or a balanced side.

So for me it’s a welcome snd much needed win but I will not change my views on Smith until I see a prolonged and convincing improvement in performance levels over 90 minutes.

[Jim Smith 2,349]

9 hours ago, Petriix said:

I suppose we simply can't tell at this point. I though we were much more solid out of possession though. The tactical aspects were generally good. We just seemed to lack confidence and cohesion. Dowell was incredibly poor, otherwise everyone was doing the basics right. 

One problem seems to be that all our attacking midfielders are incredibly inconsistent. I like Dowell but every time he starts he’s sh*t. Ramsey plays brilliantly one game then is awful the next. Same with Onel, Todd etc.

I really feel Todd, Sara and Nunez are all pushing for starts again after that second half. Sara gives us extra energy and Todd a bit of quality. But then who do you drop? It’s still all very messy. 

 

[LaUnionCanary 86]

Todd, who so far this season has zero goals and zero assists. He flatters to receive I'm afraid. 

[NFN FC 1,123]

10 minutes ago, Jim Smith said:

One problem seems to be that all our attacking midfielders are incredibly inconsistent. I like Dowell but every time he starts he’s sh*t. Ramsey plays brilliantly one game then is awful the next. Same with Onel, Todd etc.

I really feel Todd, Sara and Nunez are all pushing for starts again after that second half. Sara gives us extra energy and Todd a bit of quality. But then who do you drop? It’s still all very messy. 

 

It's hard to drop Ramsay with a brace on the sheet. But I guess their names will all be put back into the hat. 

 

[NFN FC 1,123]

2 minutes ago, LaUnionCanary said:

Todd, who so far this season has zero goals and zero assists. He flatters to receive I'm afraid. 

He's hardly played but been cracking the last 2 games. He's earnt his spot

Edited October 30, 2022 by NFN FC

[Petriix 2,853]

Just now, LaUnionCanary said:

Todd, who so far this season has zero goals and zero assists. He flatters to receive I'm afraid. 

Yet yesterday he played a sublime reverse pass to put Nunez in which would have been an assist if the initial shot gone in rather than the rebound. I don't think there's a statistic for that, but his contribution is significant. I believe he was involved in the second goal too - winning the ball back on the left and moving the ball forwards. 

[hogesar 9,776]

I guess the main problem is 65 minutes were worse than a lot of other games this season. I think the optimism is coming from ending the game well rather than starting well and fading.

When we were playing well, we looked quite balanced and when we were playing poorly we didn't look too bad defensively and that's probably down to personnel in having Hayden etc.

The goals really did improve confidence which I think was important because fans are on edge as well.

[hogesar 9,776]

5 minutes ago, LaUnionCanary said:

Todd, who so far this season has zero goals and zero assists. He flatters to receive I'm afraid. 

No, that's way too simplistic. 

[Jim Smith 2,349]

I’d g

7 minutes ago, Petriix said:

Yet yesterday he played a sublime reverse pass to put Nunez in which would have been an assist if the initial shot gone in rather than the rebound. I don't think there's a statistic for that, but his contribution is significant. I believe he was involved in the second goal too - winning the ball back on the left and moving the ball forwards. 

Set up Hugill for a sitter also 

[Capt. Pants 4,298]

Hopefully it will be the start of a big turnaround but we'll have to wait and see. QPR will again show if we have what it takes to beat one if the better sides.

Smith made 6 changes for this game and the outcome was utterly shocking - one of the worst home performances for a long long while. Luckily, Stoke were no better and we managed to score after a rare moment of quality.

We were much better after the subs thanks to an uplifting display from Todd.

On to Weds; it's a must not lose otherwise we will be back to square 1, or more likely square -1. Will he pick McLean? 

Way too early to get excited yet.

 

[sonyc 5,541]

Good points @Hank shoots Skyler and nice to read through in a post the development of your thinking. I don't know if it's a turning point but it does still feel that Smith is experimenting - trying to perfect one or two starting line up permutations. He kept a continuity in that run of wins - why wouldn't he? But...as many have stated, we were not especially convincing. 

The fact that we now can have 5 subs will always mean a greater likelihood of subs and in this area I believe Smith has been quite effective. Yesterday was a great example. The subs changed the dynamic - immediately! It's happened before too.

The main point I wanted to make is a question actually. Would you say that Smith, in many post match statements, has actually echoed just what you've been saying? I feel (and I'm unconvinced still by Smith but want to be fair to the fella)  that he has been non-plussed, annoyed and frustrated too. He is someone not given to much emotion or much public display of his emotions. But I think he is as unhappy as many people. He also knows there is an "edgy" atmosphere. He stated he felt it in the crowd yesterday. 

Often we don't think managers can be as frustrated as fans. Smith stated that he wants a team to be attacking and show flair (as he mentioned he got with Brentford and Villa). So, he is also waiting to see it happen. I think we can criticise formations and other tactical decisions fairly. But...a big but...maybe we might get to a turning point very soon. If we can find those great touches again (Pukki, Cantwell examples) and other players get on to that wavelength then I'm hopeful.

 

Edited October 30, 2022 by sonyc

[Tetteys Jig 830]

Hopefully Todd has his ego in check now and realises his level as an effective upper championship operator. Them 6 prem goals went to his head a bit and he got ideas above his station but I hope now he settles down, renews here and we can build around him.

I wonder if he’d maybe work best as a mezzala operating in the spaces as opposed to an out and out no. 10, as we saw he can now get stuck in during that Burnley game. Iniesta is the best example of someone that played the role effectively. Didn’t always get the assist numbers but clearly an important player.

I feel if he listens to the noise and lets his deal run he’d get a move to a lower prem side taking a punt, probably stagnate with lack of game time and end up on loan back in the championship anyway.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,605]

The last 30 minutes of yesterday is by no means the only entertaining period of football we've seen this season, in which case we're post-dawn on that score. Equally, results wise, we had 23 out of 27 points and were in second some weeks back, so we're post-dawn in a results sense as well. 

What we can say is that a period of bad form has been arrested by a great result that featured a workmanlike performance for most of it, and an enjoyable performance for about a third of it. 

[By Hook or Ian crook 917]

I really hope that Smith can get the best out of this side, I’d be happy to eat humble pie if he does, but I am more inclined to just think that Stoke were very very poor and against the better sides we will still be in trouble. 

[Branston Pickle 3,706]

The problem is how to get more of the good stuff and minimise the poor.  It’ll be interesting  to see the starting XI on Wednesday - Kenny will be back available and presumably Josh, too.

We have had a number of injuries (and a suspension) that have sometimes forced the team selection, but we do need a decent handle on what or first choice side/squad is. If/when everyone is fit there’s a lot of choices and I’m not sure we know the answers.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,605]

Just now, By Hook or Ian crook said:

I really hope that Smith can get the best out of this side, I’d be happy to eat humble pie if he does, but I am more inclined to just think that Stoke were very very poor and against the better sides we will still be in trouble. 

This is the way I look at it: 

• Yes we're erratic. Yes, the uninteresting football still outweighs the easy on the eye football. 
• Improvement in football is never linear on account of the competitive nature and the variation in the teams you face. 
• You can't separate out the squad from the manager in any assessment, because all performance is under this manager; if they do well, it's as much (and as little) down to management as if they do badly. 
• The first priority is and always will be results. Promotion is the aim and seeing a convincingly good and deserved result yesterday to arrest a spell of bad form is a start to getting back on track. 
• There is absolutely no way of seeing into the future to see whether we'll get where we want to be or not. All I can do is look at the fact that this manager does have a 100% record of leaving clubs in a better position in footballing terms than when he found them prior to joining Norwich, which is a basis to let him get on with it in my view and to wish him well in trying to do so. If things go badly, then the players need scrutinising as much as the manager. 
• OTBC