Corona Virus main thread

[Van wink 2,994]

2 hours ago, ricardo said:

I havent seen it confirmed anywhere else yet. 

Germany are saying it shouldn't be given to over 65's

"Boris Johnson has said he is not concerned by Germany ruling that the AstraZeneca vaccine should only be recommended for under 65s, as he argued the evidence shows it "provides a good immune response across all age groups".

Edited January 28, 2021 by Van wink

[ricardo 7,416]

The German media are not fooled by the EU's bluster

[Van wink 2,994]

Astonishing

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/28/belgium-launches-investigation-of-astrazeneca-vaccine-plant

 

Millions of doses of vaccines could be blocked from entering Britain from the EU within days, as part of Brussels’ response to a shortage of doses among its member states.

The European commission said a new authorisation mechanism would be established to give national regulators the power to refuse vaccine exports. The development will raise concerns over the continued flow of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, for which the UK has a 40m-dose order.

 

“There is a possibility on certain circumstances not to allow the export to come forward,” an official conceded.

[ricardo 7,416]

National

28680 - 1239

Local

more signs of green appearing

 

Vax numbers lower than last week.

Ah, just noticed Scottish numbers not included for some reason.

[The Real Buh 3,486]

32 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Germany are saying it shouldn't be given to over 65's

"Boris Johnson has said he is not concerned by Germany ruling that the AstraZeneca vaccine should only be recommended for under 65s, as he argued the evidence shows it "provides a good immune response across all age groups".

The absolute state of Europe.

[paul moy 235]

1 hour ago, JF said:

I’m going to have a rant here as it’s as good a place as any and I need to blow off steam! We’ve received the death certificate for my father in law today and are disgusted to see covid listed within the certificate. He had terminal cancer and was admitted to hospital before Xmas with pneumonia, placed on the covid ward whilst awaiting the test results and when they came back as negative he was then moved to the cancer ward, during this time we were told the cancer had spread violently and he had a maximum of 4 weeks to live. He was then tested positive for covid but had no symptoms so was placed back on the covid ward,  We found it strange that a man in his condition would have no symptoms. He died at home of lung cancer 3 weeks into the maximum of 4 weeks diagnosis. I’m disgusted that his death is a covid statistic, it had no influence what so ever, this is not the way that these numbers should be counted. 

 

... and they say that we have the worst deaths by COVID in the world .... 'lies, damn lies and statistics' comes to mind. 

So the plus side is that we are overstated and many others are understated, as I have been saying, especially China and Germany.

[paul moy 235]

50 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Astonishing

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/28/belgium-launches-investigation-of-astrazeneca-vaccine-plant

 

Millions of doses of vaccines could be blocked from entering Britain from the EU within days, as part of Brussels’ response to a shortage of doses among its member states.

The European commission said a new authorisation mechanism would be established to give national regulators the power to refuse vaccine exports. The development will raise concerns over the continued flow of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, for which the UK has a 40m-dose order.

 

“There is a possibility on certain circumstances not to allow the export to come forward,” an official conceded.

Is it really astonishing ?

[Creative Midfielder 2,003]

4 hours ago, ricardo said:

Indeed, and he will be facing the voters verdict just as it should be in a democracy.

Yes, that is exactly how it should be but...............and you know what exactly coming next and that we fundamentally disagree about it - but I know I'm right and you're wrong so I'm going to say it again anyway 😂

The problem with what we generously describe as a 'democracy' in the UK is that our electoral and our Parliamentary system doesn't reflect the voters verdict at all. I used to use the example of the 2015 GE where the UKIP & Green Party combined vote was 5m or 16.4% of the total vote and it  yielded 1 seat or 0.15% of the seats.

But I think I'll move on from that one to an more recent election in which the current government won an 80 seat majority ith less than 43% of the vote - this current Government does not in any way reflect the voters' verdict in 2019 and neither will the next one in 2024. In fact 42% it actually a pretty good score, it is entirely possible that the Tories, or Labour, will win in 2024 with 36/37% of the vote.

That simply isn't democratic, in fact it is the antithesis of democracy but it is the system we are stuck with because we are effectively a two party state and it appears that both parties are prepared to sit out longish spells in opposition in return for the guarantee that their turn in power will inevitably come round again.

I'm sure that both parties would hotly deny that this is also the reason that for decades the standard of governance in this country has generally been poor and more recently appalling. Our system isn't remotely democratic, but more importantly in practice is that it provides no accountability to voters whatsoever.

[Mark .Y. 352]

Does anybody have any idea why our vaccination rate has slowed over this week ?

[Yellow Fever 3,844]

1 hour ago, Van wink said:

Germany are saying it shouldn't be given to over 65's

"Boris Johnson has said he is not concerned by Germany ruling that the AstraZeneca vaccine should only be recommended for under 65s, as he argued the evidence shows it "provides a good immune response across all age groups".

I think a  lot of this has to do with 'emergency' or non emergency authorization.

Many Europeans are cautious (much more than us) about the vaccine. If it all goes pear shaped with our emergency authorization - the buck stays with the governments. If it a more normal authorization - based on more and sounder data as in the EU - the buck passes to the pharmas. There is no sensible data for over 65s for the trials.

 

[Essjayess 307]

2 hours ago, paul moy said:

HMG have played a blinder on vaccines and the majority will not blame the government as they have seen evidence with their own eyes on who is spreading the disease by ignoring simple rules on social distancing, sanitisation and social mixing which were made clear from the very outset of the pandemic. 

The end-game is close for us but will continue for a long time yet in the rest of the world and all countries have made mistakes, but the EU mistakes I'm pretty sure will far outweigh ours. 

 

 

 

Agree with you paul about the government and its vax program, also daily testings to, today for example, 771,000 testings, an astonishing leap forward  compared to the sluggish start we had last Spring.

Have to disagree with you about us being close to end game though. With less than half million 2nd doses  given there is still a long road ahead and as yet we still dont know what impact overall population  vax coverage will have on Covid spread, it could have either a major or minor role in the control of  said spread. To, its a brave person to say the end game is near when dealing with this virus, its proven to be able to vary its make up and also proven to be incredibly resilient to. Not even spoken about the economic and mental health fall outs from this pandemic, those are associated factors that will have to be dealt with as time goes by.

[Well b back 3,285]

2 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I think a  lot of this has to do with 'emergency' or non emergency authorization.

Many Europeans are cautious (much more than us) about the vaccine. If it all goes pear shaped with our emergency authorization - the buck stays with the governments. If it a more normal authorization - based on more and sounder data as in the EU - the buck passes to the pharmas. There is no sensible data for over 65s for the trials.

 

A very clever answer from Boris, very careful not to use the word data.

[Creative Midfielder 2,003]

1 minute ago, Well b back said:

A very clever answer from Boris, very careful not to use the word data.

It must have been written for him by someone else who is clever then........😃

[Barbe bleu 834]

2 hours ago, JF said:

Thank you. I’m sitting here in tears to be honest. To see his death go down as a statistic for this virus is an insult to the battle he went through with cancer. He died from the diagnosis we always knew he would die with

Gosh JF,  so sorry for you. I can see though that to the people that matter most he was so much more than a statistic. That is what we all hope for when the time comes

[Van wink 2,994]

44 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I think a  lot of this has to do with 'emergency' or non emergency authorization.

Many Europeans are cautious (much more than us) about the vaccine. If it all goes pear shaped with our emergency authorization - the buck stays with the governments. If it a more normal authorization - based on more and sounder data as in the EU - the buck passes to the pharmas. There is no sensible data for over 65s for the trials.

 

Let’s see what EMA say tomorrow, you are obviously correct about the lack of hard data.

[Van wink 2,994]

43 minutes ago, Well b back said:

A very clever answer from Boris, very careful not to use the word data.

“EFFICACIOUS”. he said, EFFICACIOUS in every way..........a bit like medicinal compound 😉

 

[CANARYKING 644]

1 hour ago, Mark .Y. said:

Does anybody have any idea why our vaccination rate has slowed over this week ?

Because they ran out, our nearest at Southwold will not start again till next week

[It's Character Forming 1,167]

Discussed on the BBC news about the over 65 issue, basically as commented above the German approach is that there is insufficient data from the trial to assess whether the vaccine gives protection to over 65s - so this is based purely on infection levels in the control and vaccine participants in the trial being not enough to make that comparison.
 

The UK authority had looked at wider info such as antibody levels and projecting efficacy from under 65s to decide it’s worth giving to over 65s. Neither approach is right or wrong, personally I’m happy with the approach the UK is taking.

[ricardo 7,416]

Did anyone notice the number of tests yesterday 771k  !!!!!!

positives down to under 4% in that case.

very good news.

[paul moy 235]

1 hour ago, Essjayess said:

Agree with you paul about the government and its vax program, also daily testings to, today for example, 771,000 testings, an astonishing leap forward  compared to the sluggish start we had last Spring.

Have to disagree with you about us being close to end game though. With less than half million 2nd doses  given there is still a long road ahead and as yet we still dont know what impact overall population  vax coverage will have on Covid spread, it could have either a major or minor role in the control of  said spread. To, its a brave person to say the end game is near when dealing with this virus, its proven to be able to vary its make up and also proven to be incredibly resilient to. Not even spoken about the economic and mental health fall outs from this pandemic, those are associated factors that will have to be dealt with as time goes by.

As long as we don't kowtow to the EU we will be streets ahead on vaccination as they continue to suffer vaccine shortages. We should complete our vaccination of elderly and vulnerable within a couple of months and then see death rates and hospitalisations at a minimum as immunity kicks in. That to me is more or less the endgame of the pandemic for us and hopefully we can return at least to some form of normality in comparison to lockdown.  Apparently the vaccine works on the Brazil variant which is good news indeed. 

The economic and mental health are other issues, as is world travel, as we surely will not open fully to unvaccinated countries and may only allow air travel for the vaccinated.

 

[Well b back 3,285]

6 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

Discussed on the BBC news about the over 65 issue, basically as commented above the German approach is that there is insufficient data from the trial to assess whether the vaccine gives protection to over 65s - so this is based purely on infection levels in the control and vaccine participants in the trial being not enough to make that comparison.
 

The UK authority had looked at wider info such as antibody levels and projecting efficacy from under 65s to decide it’s worth giving to over 65s. Neither approach is right or wrong, personally I’m happy with the approach the UK is taking.

That as I understand it is spot on.

If you remember back to November, because they joined the trial late , there was little to no data on the over 55’s even though there was relative numbers ( 1418 ( I think it was ) ) from the part of the trial unblinded. You may remember lots of us assumed that the MHRA would not approve for over 55’s, but they did based on the immune responses not data. I suspect there is probably some more data now up to 65’s but still short on over 65’s. The new paper is due out shortly. 
The trials continue and the American trial now uses the second dose at 1 month, 2 months and 3 months to equal numbers. The Oxford / Sputnik V trial is in several countries and begins shortly in humans. This will see the 1st dose as Oxford, second dose as Sputnik, spread like the American trial, but not sure if there will be a placebo.

[Well b back 3,285]

2 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Did anyone notice the number of tests yesterday 771k  !!!!!!

positives down to under 4% in that case.

very good news.

I think it’s because when you do a lateral flow now, you have a number on that test and you should record that number on the website and the result of the test. You then get an email / text from NHS just like the ones from the test centres. 
I have had 4 negative tests since 18/1. 

[paul moy 235]

25 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

Discussed on the BBC news about the over 65 issue, basically as commented above the German approach is that there is insufficient data from the trial to assess whether the vaccine gives protection to over 65s - so this is based purely on infection levels in the control and vaccine participants in the trial being not enough to make that comparison.
 

The UK authority had looked at wider info such as antibody levels and projecting efficacy from under 65s to decide it’s worth giving to over 65s. Neither approach is right or wrong, personally I’m happy with the approach the UK is taking.

Let's hope the EMA reject the vaccine .... I bet they don't though based on current shenanigans. If it is only efficatious for under 65s according to them and we believe that to be untrue then it is better that we keep it and use it on our own elderly and vulnerable who are most at risk.

[Yellow Fever 3,844]

1 minute ago, Well b back said:

I think it’s because when you do a lateral flow now, you have a number on that test and you should record that number on the website and the result of the test. You then get an email / text from NHS just like the ones from the test centres. 
I have had 4 negative tests since 18/1. 

I think your 4 tests in quick succesion explains very obviously why raw confirmed test data can be misleading. The randomised ONS sampling as ever to get a true figure for prevalence.

[Van wink 2,994]

9 minutes ago, Well b back said:

The trials continue and the American trial now uses the second dose at 1 month, 2 months and 3 months to equal numbers. 

Will be interested  to see how that goes, I have heard a number of experts suggest that the longer you leave the gap between first and second dose the better the immune response, would like to see evidence of that from trials.

[Van wink 2,994]

1 minute ago, Yellow Fever said:

I think your 4 tests in quick succesion explains very obviously why raw confirmed test data can be misleading. The randomised ONS sampling as ever to get a true figure for prevalence.

another set of results out tomorrow I would imagine, it tends to be mirrored by Zoe so would expect a further reduction

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

2 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Will be interested  to see how that goes, I have heard a number of experts suggest that the longer you leave the gap between first and second dose the better the immune response, would like to see evidence of that from trials.

I read somewhere that the first dose is you pressing the snooze button. Its getting you ready for the big alarm ten minutes later when you leap out of bed and are ready. However, it didn't mention any length of gap.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

39 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

Discussed on the BBC news about the over 65 issue, basically as commented above the German approach is that there is insufficient data from the trial to assess whether the vaccine gives protection to over 65s - so this is based purely on infection levels in the control and vaccine participants in the trial being not enough to make that comparison.
 

The UK authority had looked at wider info such as antibody levels and projecting efficacy from under 65s to decide it’s worth giving to over 65s. Neither approach is right or wrong, personally I’m happy with the approach the UK is taking.

I assume whatever happens in the next twelve months, the labs are continuing to work on a vaccine that will be a one off protection.

At least if we have some protection until then and it allows the NHS and economy to return to normal, then we can either have boosters or wait.

[Van wink 2,994]

32 minutes ago, Well b back said:

I think it’s because when you do a lateral flow now, you have a number on that test and you should record that number on the website and the result of the test. You then get an email / text from NHS just like the ones from the test centres. 
I have had 4 negative tests since 18/1. 

There was a change in policy on T and T on Wednesday this week, requirement for statutory self isolation following positive lateral flow test.

"There will be a temporary policy change from Wednesday 27th January that will mean that cases that test positive for an LFD test will be legally obliged to self-isolate in line with current PCR test result guidance. The rationale for the change is that the current increased levels and transmission rate of the COVID-19 virus means the accuracy of a positive LFD test is now very similar to that of a PCR test. There will be NO requirement for a confirmatory PCR test for most cases but there are some exceptions which are detailed on the briefing document on eLfH. A positive LFD test will trigger NHS T&T contact tracing as usual and will also mean that cases will be eligible for the Test & Trace Support payments and the usual eligibility criteria will apply. Case workers will be able to identify if the record is for an PCR or LFD test for reference purposes only  Please continue to monitor updates on ElfH to ensure that you are fully informed of the changes and updates before, during and after Go live.       We acknowledge that this will be a significant change and there may be challenge from cases that we will need to manage appropriately. I am sure there will be more questions because of the change in policy. These need to be directed to Team Leaders and Clinical leads as present. Use of the Hub will also support us collating queries that can then be considered for adding into FAQs.   We want to thank you in advance for your patience and cooperation to ensure this change lands with the appropriate professionalism to support the public and to manage the current risk.   Thank you supporting NHS Test and Trace.      Kind Regards NHS Professionals

NHS Professionals

39 Breakspear Way, Hemel Hempstead, 

 

Edited January 28, 2021 by Van wink

[ricardo 7,416]

an interesting chart

 

 

 

Edited January 28, 2021 by ricardo