Corona Virus main thread

[ricardo 7,395]

[Van wink 2,994]

27 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Do you think Billy has bought one by now?

A nosebag perhaps😉

[Van wink 2,994]

"And so it was today with the scoop revealed by Ed Conway of Sky News that the government is paying, on a daily rate, £7,360 per day to the management consultants at Boston Consulting Group, who are in charge of test and trace.

"Equivalent to a £1.5m salary to individuals as a day rate, to preside over this shambolic sight that is letting down all the people in my constituency and in so many others."
 

mmm £7k per day, a tad more than the £17 an hour paid to contact tracers🧐

[sonyc 5,526]

21 minutes ago, Van wink said:

"And so it was today with the scoop revealed by Ed Conway of Sky News that the government is paying, on a daily rate, £7,360 per day to the management consultants at Boston Consulting Group, who are in charge of test and trace.

"Equivalent to a £1.5m salary to individuals as a day rate, to preside over this shambolic sight that is letting down all the people in my constituency and in so many others."
 

mmm £7k per day, a tad more than the £17 an hour paid to contact tracers🧐

And contracts given often to contractors who don't have the long term expertise (one indeed connected to Cummings). My point in the money side of things in the article posted above is of course salient. There is an interesting financial advantage in being tier 3 for funding purposes. On a general note, this government is certainly splashing the cash. I am interested in the  outcome of the legal challenge set up by Lucas and Moran.

[sonyc 5,526]

36 minutes ago, ricardo said:

One thing that stands out for me is the rate of hospitalisations in March and April (shown by the sharp upward orange bars) as well as the effect of lockdown in the corresponding decreases in late April. One thing though that makes me slightly more cautious in a more optimistic interpretation is the fact that it was London that saw the greatest rise in late March / early April and the sheer number and size of the capital must have fed into the overall numbers.

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

14 minutes ago, sonyc said:

One thing that stands out for me is the rate of hospitalisations in March and April (shown by the sharp upward orange bars) as well as the effect of lockdown in the corresponding decreases in late April. One thing though that makes me slightly more cautious in a more optimistic interpretation is the fact that it was London that saw the greatest rise in late March / early April and the sheer number and size of the capital must have fed into the overall numbers.

I think all it really tell me is that to get a CV19 test in March / April you pretty much had to be seriously ill (and likely hospitalized). Not true today hence the big broad blue band. It would be interesting to add to the plot plot the estimated cases (circa 100K nationally peak) from say February - then we  might see correlations more easily between now and then.

 

[Well b back 3,216]

Wow

Andy Burnham was just in a meeting with Westminster  where Manchester going into the next level was not discussed ( alledgedly ) He came out of the meeting to see the same people were being quoted in the press to say Manchester is about to be put into the higher level ( allegedly ).

He is furious ( allegedly )

[Jools 584]

🙃

[Well b back 3,216]

A bit more on long Covid. If the government want to get people back in line they really need to be telling people about this and how with it being a new disease nobody knows where this is going.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54540544

[Well b back 3,216]

Staff at several NHS trusts were left unable to access testing after they stood down their in-house systems because they were assured that centralised national system could cope.

When the national system then came under strain earlier in the autumn, some healthcare staff - including in virus hotspots - could not get tested.

The government has since said it has increased testing capacity.

Dr Fiona McCann, a consultant at Northampton General - a medium-sized hospital - struggled to access a test for a her son in mid-September, meaning she had to cancel clinics.

"The problem is that both myself and my husband are key workers. If we can't go to work because we have to look after the children, that's taking away our ability to offer those services," she said.

Since then, her hospital has reinstated staff testing on site.

[Rock The Boat 1,332]

22 hours ago, horsefly said:

Lock-downs and their concomitant financial packages are there to support individuals and businesses through to the period when we have gained sufficient control over the virus (e.g. a widely available vaccine). Delaying the circuit-breaker lock-down will see viable businesses go bust. The younger generation needs the survival of these businesses for their future too. Allowing them to go bust does not help future generations.

You must be the only person in the country arguing that delaying lockdown will put businesses in trouble. 

[Rock The Boat 1,332]

21 hours ago, Well b back said:

With all due respect it is no longer people dieing now it is about the uncertainty of what we don’t know. There is more evidence by the day of long term effects however young or old or healthy you are. Until we know the long term outcomes nobody really knows how Covid will be remembered.

Yes. We have to balance the uncertainty that you mention against the uncertainty of what will happen to the economy if we go into lockdown.  What we do already know is that deaths are not  occuring at the rates predicted earlier and mainly concentrated within a narrow age profile. So we are left with the unknown long term effects which will only become apparent over the long term. You may argue that we should lockdown because of these unknowns. I would argue that the greater damage to the economy outweighs the risk of something that may or may not happen. A lockdown might only delay the inevitable as there is no certainty that a vaccine may work, and we will have to live with the virus over the long term

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

5 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

You must be the only person in the country arguing that delaying lockdown will put businesses in trouble. 

You don't get it do you?

A short lockdown (with government support) is far better than leaving the dwindling hospitality business open yet bleeding to death unsupported in the govt Tier 'system'  while the virus expands and makes hay. A short sharp lockdown now saves (or delays and buys time for a better solution) a much longer and very very much more painful lockdown later - I guess it will forced upon Johnson across the otherwise peak Christmas holiday season. Everybody knows such a lock down is coming but a few ostriches prefer to stick their head in the sand and pretend otherwise. They think it's a bad dream which if they ignore will go away.

Of all the possible possible choices Johnson as usual gets it all wrong - puts off today what  he thinks can be left for tomorrow.

[Rock The Boat 1,332]

9 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

You don't get it do you?

A short lockdown (with government support) is far better than leaving the dwindling hospitality business open yet bleeding to death unsupported in the govt Tier 'system'  while the virus expands and makes hay. A short sharp lockdown now saves (or delays and buys time for a better solution) a much longer and very very much more painful lockdown later - I guess it will forced upon Johnson across the otherwise peak Christmas holiday season. Everybody knows such a lock down is coming but a few ostriches prefer to stick their head in the sand and pretend otherwise. They think it's a bad dream which if they ignore will go away.

Of all the possible possible choices Johnson as usual gets it all wrong - puts off today what  he thinks can be left for tomorrow.

With my wife in the restaurant business I really do get it. I understand that confidence or the lack of it is a big driver in the business. If customers do not feel safe they will not come. The Eat Out to Help Out was a hugely successful campaign that got footfall and bookings up to pre-Covid levels and they remained there after the scheme had ended. 

Now just the talk of further lockdown is creating uncertainty and all the good work of the summer months is being unravelled. And for what reason? Ricardo's graphic at the top of this page shows that current deaths are a small fraction of what happened in March/April and we may already be at the peak of infections. So even if infections are high it is clear the fatalities are not, so there is no reason to continue fear-mongering, and every reason to maintain confidence that so long as we maintain sensible measures such as social distancing, facemask wearing, hand washing, shielding of vulnerable that we can get back to a degree of normality. Lockdowns are not needed. 

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

2 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

With my wife in the restaurant business I really do get it. I understand that confidence or the lack of it is a big driver in the business. If customers do not feel safe they will not come. The Eat Out to Help Out was a hugely successful campaign that got footfall and bookings up to pre-Covid levels and they remained there after the scheme had ended. 

Now just the talk of further lockdown is creating uncertainty and all the good work of the summer months is being unravelled. And for what reason? Ricardo's graphic at the top of this page shows that current deaths are a small fraction of what happened in March/April and we may already be at the peak of infections. So even if infections are high it is clear the fatalities are not, so there is no reason to continue fear-mongering, and every reason to maintain confidence that so long as we maintain sensible measures such as social distancing, facemask wearing, hand washing, shielding of vulnerable that we can get back to a degree of normality. Lockdowns are not needed. 

The proof then will be then if in Tier 1  - the current lax restrictions - cases don't continue to grow as they have been.

I'm not holding my breath for that.

.

 

[Rock The Boat 1,332]

4 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

The proof then will be then if in Tier 1  - the current lax restrictions - cases don't continue to grow as they have been.

I'm not holding my breath for that.

.

 

And death rates in Tier 1 vs current restrictions. I predict both will begin falling with minimal differences in the rates

[paul moy 235]

46 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

You don't get it do you?

A short lockdown (with government support) is far better than leaving the dwindling hospitality business open yet bleeding to death unsupported in the govt Tier 'system'  while the virus expands and makes hay. A short sharp lockdown now saves (or delays and buys time for a better solution) a much longer and very very much more painful lockdown later - I guess it will forced upon Johnson across the otherwise peak Christmas holiday season. Everybody knows such a lock down is coming but a few ostriches prefer to stick their head in the sand and pretend otherwise. They think it's a bad dream which if they ignore will go away.

Of all the possible possible choices Johnson as usual gets it all wrong - puts off today what  he thinks can be left for tomorrow.

The government simply cannot win. On one side we have so many calling for a full lockdown and on the other side we have them in the media saying no lockdown can be justified at all (ref: Mike Graham and Peter Hitchins on Talksport who I must say i do not agree with at all ).  Based on this the middle way has to be the answer to at least satisfy as many sensible people as possible.

The bottom line is that no measures of lockdown will work without the public adhering to the rules and we know that most younger members of our alleged broken society do not give a toss barring a few exceptions.

[The Real Buh 3,444]

Starmers choice of wanting a full lockdown immediately is a political decision. He wants to win back votes they lost at the last election. It’s an opportunistic view and totally transparent. He’s sick in the head and his shadow chancellor looks like a rejected Aardman animation figurine. Labour have fully confirmed they aren’t the party of working people. Labour hate working people.

[Herman 9,779]

Where as you want to sacrifice the economy for brexit and want to sacrifice people for the economy. You have no moral guidance just greed and self interest propelling your views. I'll quite happily take no advice from people like you and the politicians you slavishly drool over. 

[The Real Buh 3,444]

2 minutes ago, Herman said:

Where as you want to sacrifice the economy for brexit and want to sacrifice people for the economy. You have no moral guidance just greed and self interest propelling your views. I'll quite happily take no advice from people like you and the politicians you slavishly drool over. 

I don’t worship politicians, that’s you little lad. Can somebody sort out a safe space for this guy to have a cry because I had a go at Kier “all the rooms in his giant house are painted beige” Starmer. Grow up.

[A Load of Squit 5,170]

18 minutes ago, The Real Buh said:

Starmers choice of wanting a full lockdown immediately is a political decision. He wants to win back votes they lost at the last election. It’s an opportunistic view and totally transparent. He’s sick in the head and his shadow chancellor looks like a rejected Aardman animation figurine. Labour have fully confirmed they aren’t the party of working people. Labour hate working people.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8840093/More-two-thirds-Brits-Keir-Starmer-two-week-circuit-breaker-lockdown-half-term.html

More than two-thirds of Britons BACK Keir Starmer's demand for a two-week circuit breaker lockdown at half term with just a fifth of the public against the idea

Man of the (Working) people. 😀

 

 

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

43 minutes ago, The Real Buh said:

Starmers choice of wanting a full lockdown immediately is a political decision. He wants to win back votes they lost at the last election. It’s an opportunistic view and totally transparent. He’s sick in the head and his shadow chancellor looks like a rejected Aardman animation figurine. Labour have fully confirmed they aren’t the party of working people. Labour hate working people.

😂😂😂 All Johnson's decisions (and lack of decisions) are political decisions, and he's got virtually all of them wrong.

Whether or not you agree with Starmer he is doing exactly what Johnson claims to have been doing, i.e. following scientific advice - the difference is, of course, that as usual Johnson has been lying all along and following Cummings' advice rather than the science.

The other major difference between the two men is that Johnson has consistently shown very poor judgement - call Starmer opportunistic if you like but what you are reflecting is that he is doing his job as Leader of the Opposition a hell of a lot better than Johnson is doing his job as Prime Minister (although he won't have that job too much longer 😀).

 

[How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,189]

A spray to protect against the virus

Interesting and encouraging 

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

My issue with all of this so far is what does the government and others expect to happen with it's weak current policy. I don't think they've thought ahead at all (unless they lack all morals and hope CV19 will be such a huge issue in January that it completely and conveniently obscures the  Brexit fiasco).

From the data to date it appears in the current 'tier' one areas - in effect 'as you are' and have been for several weeks the virus increases and spreads as at present. Tier one areas naturally migrate to tier 2 or worse. What stops it?

Does anybody believe that the minor extra restrictions on tier 2 (don't meet in houses or restaurants) will be either observed or have much effect. I very much doubt it. It's a fig leaf.

Tier 3 - likely to have the most significant effect but as per Sage the current Tier 3 restrictions thought not enough - guess they'll have close restaurants as well as pubs in short order. Ouch but obvious. Pretty close then to 'circuit break'.

At best, tiers 2 and 3 will delay the virus, not reverse. Tier 1 doesn't work already.

So the end result is that virus cases keeps increasing with spreading tiers 2 and 3+ restrictions killing the hospitality sector - death by a thousand cuts. End result is as we approach Christmas in order to keep services and the NHS viable we will have to enter a new March style full lockdown (that kills the Xmas holiday season for hospitality) with orders of magnitude more cases than at present. Disaster.

So what's the alternative to Sage's 'circuit break - if not the above capitulation to the virus?

Let it rip - Disaster even quicker.

Time for some leadership Johnson. Grow some balls & take decisive action else move out of way for people who will. Action this day.

[The Real Buh 3,444]

10 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

😂😂😂 All Johnson's decisions (and lack of decisions) are political decisions, and he's got virtually all of them wrong.

Whether or not you agree with Starmer he is doing exactly what Johnson claims to have been doing, i.e. following scientific advice - the difference is, of course, that as usual Johnson has been lying all along and following Cummings' advice rather than the science.

The other major difference between the two men is that Johnson has consistently shown very poor judgement - call Starmer opportunistic if you like but what you are reflecting is that he is doing his job as Leader of the Opposition a hell of a lot better than Johnson is doing his job as Prime Minister (although he won't have that job too much longer 😀).

 

You’ve made the mistake of thinking I support Boris Johnson. It’s a common trait amongst generic labour supporters like you. Kier Starmer tells you what to think, you oblige, how intelligent of you.

The problem is more complex than scientific advice. A scientist has no further responsibility beyond declaring “lock everything down” it’s true, it’s work in controlling the virus. Shutting the whole world down for a few months would kill the virus immediately, of course itd devastate the world in different ways and that’s where political decisions come in.

Kier Starmer is in the luxurious position of not having to actually deal with this very serious problem. Now he’s taken the opportunity to attack because he was becoming known as being a leader of the opposition that does nothing. I believe the term “beige Kier Starmer” was being banded around. He’s doing this to save his job. It’s about him and his parties votes not saving lives or anything so noble. He is a snake.

it’s not going to work either. The guy headed CPS that’s the level of failure of a human being we are taking about here. Anybody know any coppers or people in criminal prosecutions who can tell the group what CPS is known as commonly in the game? It’s a name that really caught on as a result of his and others in his era who lead the CPS. In fact, I’m willing to say he was probably responsible for delivering the least amount of criminal justice to victims in history, and it’s Carried on since. I mean, people were raped under his tenure and people walked free in record numbers.

[The Real Buh 3,444]

1 hour ago, A Load of Squit said:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8840093/More-two-thirds-Brits-Keir-Starmer-two-week-circuit-breaker-lockdown-half-term.html

More than two-thirds of Britons BACK Keir Starmer's demand for a two-week circuit breaker lockdown at half term with just a fifth of the public against the idea

Man of the (Working) people. 😀

 

 

Lol okay. Quoting the daily Mail. I wouldn’t trust that right wing propaganda. What are you, a murdoch puppet or a Russian bot?

[A Load of Squit 5,170]

1 minute ago, The Real Buh said:

Lol okay. Quoting the daily Mail. I wouldn’t trust that right wing propaganda. What are you, a murdoch puppet or a Russian bot?

It's a Yougov poll.

You're an idiot.

[The Real Buh 3,444]

2 minutes ago, A Load of Squit said:

It's a Yougov poll.

You're an idiot.

Why don’t you go and read the telegraph as well, Nigel.

[Van wink 2,994]

YF is right, a circuit break will slow things down but in the absence of any proposals as to what the time bought will be used for its all rhetoric, from both sides. Comments like we need a circuit break to "fix track and trace", which I hear from  number of Labour MP's is  as hopeless and no better than what the government are or are not doing. 

[The Real Buh 3,444]

Just now, Van wink said:

YF is right, a circuit break will slow things down but in the absence of any proposals as to what the time bought will be used for its all rhetoric, from both sides. Comments like we need a circuit break to "fix track and trace", which I hear from  number of Labour MP's is  as hopeless and no better than what the government are or are not doing. 

How about local labour government officials that are deliberately dragging their heels on local lockdowns potentially costing lives and causing more infections. This will all be on the orders of labour central command you’ve got to “tow the line” so we can get Kier in. Liverpool have been accused of capitulating too soon to the government so they can’t lose face.

Absolutely pathetic. Two words. GUY FAWKES