Corona Virus main thread

[sonyc 5,993]

9 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

Somebody said that the real issue is that many of us if not most of us keep 'bending' the rules slightly (it's not me - honest 😉 ) - we meet grandparents and extended family, have small parties of 6 or 7, don't really isolate at the pubs and restaurants properly. Some refuse masks and so on. Result is the virus makes hay. We are all to blame for our relaxed complacent current attitude.

If true, it's only too easy to see why only a severe lock-down really works - one you can't avoid.   

 

Seems Sage were on the same page as you YF:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-sage-officially-asked-urgent-22834510?utm_source=linkCopy&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar

 

[Jools 584]

Perspective:

[Yellow Fever 4,272]

26 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Seems Sage were on the same page as you YF:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-sage-officially-asked-urgent-22834510?utm_source=linkCopy&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar

 

Thanks Sonyc. Its a compliment I'd rather not have won. Forget the hype, spin, wishful thinking or feeling lucky. The virus is a ruthless inanimate machine, it has just one aim. Infect you and replicate and then infect more than one more person. After that you're expendible. It's like a horror movie.

Sadly I suspect the new Tiers will not work. I'm sure they will slow the virus (tier 3 anyway) but not reverse. Easy to see why: tier 1, the weakest covering most of the UK is no different to what we have now ... and the virus is already growing in such areas.  Horse door bolted. It's not rocket science it just needs brave political leaders to get ahead of the curve. Opportunity wasted.

[Van wink 2,994]

54 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Seems Sage were on the same page as you YF:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-sage-officially-asked-urgent-22834510?utm_source=linkCopy&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar

 

They also recommended distance learning for tern 1 at Uni’s.

[sonyc 5,993]

17 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Thanks Sonyc. Its a compliment I'd rather not have won. Forget the hype, spin, wishful thinking or feeling lucky. The virus is a ruthless inanimate machine, it has just one aim. Infect you and replicate and then infect more than one more person. After that you're expendible. It's like a horror movie.

Sadly I suspect the new Tiers will not work. I'm sure they will slow the virus (tier 3 anyway) but not reverse. Easy to see why: tier 1, the weakest covering most of the UK is no different to what we have now ... and the virus is already growing in such areas.  Horse door bolted. It's not rocket science it just needs brave political leaders to get ahead of the curve. Opportunity wasted.

Well, once again then you are in the same boat as Whitty. He is not convinced about Tier 3 either.

[Yellow Fever 4,272]

Just now, sonyc said:

Well, once again then you are in the same boat as Whitty. He is not convinced about Tier 3 either.

Its hard work to get the virus back down to manageable levels. The trick is to keep it there which is much easier but which we failed by rote stupidity.

We'll amble along haphazardly through October and in late November admit defeat and face a full on lock down again nationally.

So avoidable. 

[sonyc 5,993]

2 minutes ago, Van wink said:

They also recommended distance learning for tern 1 at Uni’s.

Yes, I read that too. Always a step behind.

Yet, at the risk of sounding like a Tory voter, I think this virus would have troubled any administration, of whatever colour.

Yet, the strategy has been somewhat scattergun in my eyes. 

I think the John Harris article yesterday was illuminating. This government doesn't understand local administrations, and it has rarely funded properly. No wonder there is a big legal challenge coming on all those billions of contracts given to the private sector (and some as yet unaccounted). Think what that money could have done if cycled through local government (supported by local private sector labs, universities etc).

[sonyc 5,993]

Not sure if anyone saw the Michael Rosen piece on the BBC news programme this morning (Victoria Derbyshire). Based on his experience (and he faced so many life threatening events over the 12 weeks), he spoke about what our NHS really is about....care and love whatever background you're from, from cradle to grave. 

Edited October 12, 2020 by sonyc

[sonyc 5,993]

7 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Its hard work to get the virus back down to manageable levels. The trick is to keep it there which is much easier but which we failed by rote stupidity.

We'll amble along haphazardly through October and in late November admit defeat and face a full on lock down again nationally.

So avoidable. 

I have wondered whether there may be one in late November before Xmas and rolling into late December when businesses often wind down. 

This 3 tier system has been used in France (traffic light) for quite some time.

Might these tiers arguably benefit peoples' understanding? In other words,  this additional simplification could have the effect of clarification...that may influence behaviours?

[Jools 584]

11 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Its hard work to get the virus back down to manageable levels.

Manageable levels, ffs! Case Fatality Rates were 18% in April, now they're less than 1% --- If the government had spent a fraction of the cash they have spent propping up the economy in actually getting the NHS fit for purpose during the lockdown they wouldn't now be forced to completely crush the economy.

The governments strategy is a complete mess and has failed.

[Jools 584]

38 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Sadly I suspect the new Tiers will not work. I'm sure they will slow the virus (tier 3 anyway) but not reverse. Easy to see why: tier 1, the weakest covering most of the UK is no different to what we have now ... and the virus is already growing in such areas.  Horse door bolted. It's not rocket science it just needs brave political leaders to get ahead of the curve. Opportunity wasted.

I said ages ago it'd end in tiers 🙃

[Yellow Fever 4,272]

7 minutes ago, sonyc said:

I have wondered whether there may be one in late November before Xmas and rolling into late December when businesses often wind down. 

This 3 tier system has been used in France (traffic light) for quite some time.

Might these tiers arguably benefit peoples' understanding? In other words,  this additional simplification could have the effect of clarification...that may influence behaviours?

No worries about the language. Its clearer. However I think local lockdowns are actually somewhat self defeating. They simply are divisive between areas ... we are not all in this together etc. National action is probably more effective and better observed.

[Yellow Fever 4,272]

11 minutes ago, Jools said:

The governments strategy is a complete mess and has failed.

Absolutely correct. Gosh, I agree with Jools!

[Jools 584]

2 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Absolutely correct. Gosh, I agree with Jools!

I voted for the conservatives to get Brexit done, but they've failed terribly thus far on their manifesto and Boris & co have become authoritarian monsters where the virus is concerned..

If they manage to balls up Brexit I will never vote conservative again.

[Barbe bleu 977]

9 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

Absolutely correct. Gosh, I agree with Jools!

You don't. On here you are the biggest lockdown-collective action advocate and he is the biggest liberal. Your views might be detached from the actual policy by the magnitude but they are detached in completely opposite directions.

[Well b back 3,563]

9 hours ago, Van wink said:

They also recommended distance learning for tern 1 at Uni’s.

Me to, but that was based on the evidence Oxford were giving the government as to what would happen if unis went back. Oxford have been pretty accurate.

[Barbe bleu 977]

9 hours ago, sonyc said:

I have wondered whether there may be one in late November before Xmas and rolling into late December when businesses often wind down. 

This 3 tier system has been used in France (traffic light) for quite some time.

Might these tiers arguably benefit peoples' understanding? In other words,  this additional simplification could have the effect of clarification...that may influence behaviours?

I am in favour of this tiered approach. Not because we now better understand what we can do to suppress the virus.  I dont think that has been a problem since February or March.

Instead I support it because it links non compliance with consequences and gives some idea of where the balance between suppression of the virus and the collateral damage of the suppression should be made in any particular area.

[Barbe bleu 977]

7 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Me to, but that was based on the evidence Oxford were giving the government as to what would happen if unis went back. Oxford have been pretty accurate.

Do we know that unis are not working remotely where possible? 

You are making the assumption here that universities are carrying on as though it were 2019 and I am not sure that is the case.

If (and I dont know) they have taken all reasonably practicable steps already then what you are really calling for is cancellation  or delay of various elements of the curriculum. 

 

[Creative Midfielder 2,155]

9 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

Absolutely correct. Gosh, I agree with Jools!

Yep, its a very strange situation but I'm consoling myself with the thought that Jools has got over five and a half thousand posts on here to his name and this is almost certainly the very first in which he has got his facts right - dont expect it to happen again 😀😀

[Well b back 3,563]

I was listening to the radio in the car last night ( think it was that late show on radio 5 live, will try and get a link ). Although I had sort of thought of this ( my long Covid thoughts ) I had never really thought of it to this extreme. The guy said because it is a new disease nobody knows what’s going to happen in 2 years time to those that get it. On the one extreme everybody ( even those with long Covid ) could recover and become immune to catching it again ( highly unlikely ) to the other extreme everybody that had it could have anything from symptoms / ailments for the rest of their lives, but even drop down dead ( again highly unlikely ). He then went on to point out however that those that think I don’t care if I catch it, should realise that we really don’t know what this disease will do to your body and it should not be a badge of honour saying I’ve had it.

[Well b back 3,563]

9 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Do we know that unis are not working remotely where possible? 

You are making the assumption here that universities are carrying on as though it were 2019 and I am not sure that is the case.

If (and I dont know) they have taken all reasonably practicable steps already then what you are really calling for is cancellation  or delay of various elements of the curriculum. 

 

Are they not sharing accommodation ? Oxford said ( feel free to check the come on Sarah thread for the quotes ) Universities should work remotely from their homes. If they don’t there will be severe consequences.

They also predicted also almost to the number the outcome of changing the message to ‘ Stay Alert ‘ saying this gives the impression that it’s all over.

Did you notice PM last night went back to the old phrase of ‘ Save Lives ‘ ?.

[Van wink 2,994]

29 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

I am in favour of this tiered approach. Not because we now better understand what we can do to suppress the virus.  I dont think that has been a problem since February or March.

Instead I support it because it links non compliance with consequences and gives some idea of where the balance between suppression of the virus and the collateral damage of the suppression should be made in any particular area.

I like a tiered system too, the problem is this one should have been developed months ago and agreed by Parliament, consulted on with the LGA etc so that it was fit for purpose and ready to go to preempt massive case rises on a regional basis. What we now have is a system that isn’t fit for purpose and is being used too late with very little support. We wasted the summer when all this stuff should have been sorted out and agreed with the regulations written and signed off.

[sonyc 5,993]

44 minutes ago, Van wink said:

I like a tiered system too, the problem is this one should have been developed months ago and agreed by Parliament, consulted on with the LGA etc so that it was fit for purpose and ready to go to preempt massive case rises on a regional basis. What we now have is a system that isn’t fit for purpose and is being used too late with very little support. We wasted the summer when all this stuff should have been sorted out and agreed with the regulations written and signed off.

One potential big change that should happen in 2021 is increased decentralisation ....Scotland, Wales have often forged their own way in this pandemic, not just with their decisions but evidenced in their overall communications and public stances. I've been curious too to see how northern admins have got together this week to demand changes to furlough and test and trace. With local mayors now appointed (West Yorks is to be filled) it may well mark a sea change.

When the leasons are added up post pandemic the thrust of your point will be far more understood (the planning, operational understanding etc....boring but vital matters).

I imagine it could filter through how politics 'is done' nationally (of course electorally too). Someone here may argue otherwise of course.

This pandemic may well unite the north. If there is a loosening of centralisation that will not be a bad thing (and I realise I'm sounding Brexity). 

[Yellow Fever 4,272]

1 hour ago, Barbe bleu said:

You don't. On here you are the biggest lockdown-collective action advocate and he is the biggest liberal. Your views might be detached from the actual policy by the magnitude but they are detached in completely opposite directions.

On the subject of the government making a complete fiasco  of Covid I think Jools and I are totally in agreement.

Either of us might have done something different and no doubt had different issues but at least we would of been consistent.

Johnson reminds me of the nursery rhyme 'Grand old Duke of York'

 

He marched them up to the top of hill and he marched them down again.

And when they were up they were up

And when they were down they were down

And when they were only half way up they were neither up nor down.

 

A pretty good description of the prevarication, confusion plus repeated U turns of this government.

[Well b back 3,563]

For those of you with 10 minutes to spare ( an hour if you want to read some of the connected threads ) this is an excellent read. It is by a journalist that was very pessimistic in March, but now sees some real positives and I think many will relate to and be interested in what he is saying that ‘ Human Nature and the will to survive ‘ has made the pandemic not as lethal as the worst predictions. He sites examples where in America few people wore masks and now upto 90 % wear them, and because of the presidents actions more still will probably wear them. It explains why the flu season was low last year and could this year be a low event. If you have sometime on your hands click on some of the links ( wether you agree or not you know my thoughts on long Covid ) especially the long Covid ( lung disease, heart problems ect ). 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/12/health/coronavirus-pandemic-vaccine-optimism.html?campaign_id=51&emc=edit_MBE_p_20201012&instance_id=23080&nl=morning-briefing&regi_id=141174537&section=topNews&segment_id=40773&te=1&user_id=974bdc9414d93873197a0e53bd27f7aa
 

[Well b back 3,563]

Hi Sonyc

You are a quick reader lol. What a superb article, the way human nature has changed ( in America anyway ) and clicked into survival mode, initially following the leaders and then their survival genes flick in to survive and do what they think is best. I found it interesting how Americans ( like us here ) thought masks were tosh but now many see it as survival, and he goes on to say the vaccine will have the same result.

[Well b back 3,563]

I will leave you all alone after this one but another snippet the WHO on Herd Immunity and again as more and more are saying nobody knows how the virus or if the virus will harm your body long term.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-54518286

[Van wink 2,994]

2 hours ago, sonyc said:

One potential big change that should happen in 2021 is increased decentralisation ....Scotland, Wales have often forged their own way in this pandemic, not just with their decisions but evidenced in their overall communications and public stances. I've been curious too to see how northern admins have got together this week to demand changes to furlough and test and trace. With local mayors now appointed (West Yorks is to be filled) it may well mark a sea change.

When the leasons are added up post pandemic the thrust of your point will be far more understood (the planning, operational understanding etc....boring but vital matters).

I imagine it could filter through how politics 'is done' nationally (of course electorally too). Someone here may argue otherwise of course.

This pandemic may well unite the north. If there is a loosening of centralisation that will not be a bad thing (and I realise I'm sounding Brexity). 

I have always been an advocate of a regional government structure with associated increased powers at a very local level,and have lived through several attempts at Local Government Reorganisation which have mainly failed due to vested parochial interests rather than people being prepared to take a strategic view. 
I do hope that this pandemic will result in far more decentralisation with new regional structures. 

[Creative Midfielder 2,155]

3 hours ago, Van wink said:

I like a tiered system too, the problem is this one should have been developed months ago and agreed by Parliament, consulted on with the LGA etc so that it was fit for purpose and ready to go to preempt massive case rises on a regional basis. What we now have is a system that isn’t fit for purpose and is being used too late with very little support. We wasted the summer when all this stuff should have been sorted out and agreed with the regulations written and signed off.

Despite the fact that we very rarely agree on anything, as far as the above is concerned I agree with you 100%.

[sonyc 5,993]

45 minutes ago, Van wink said:

I have always been an advocate of a regional government structure with associated increased powers at a very local level,and have lived through several attempts at Local Government Reorganisation which have mainly failed due to vested parochial interests rather than people being prepared to take a strategic view. 
I do hope that this pandemic will result in far more decentralisation with new regional structures. 

I believe (and it's a bit intuitive, so treat this view with caution) but localism is growing as a 'movement' in many spheres. People are searching for identity, belonging and meaning in their (increasingly digital) lives. Finding this in a local or a more personal context makes far more sense, achievable. Does this mean we may be seeing the last of centralism? No. Movements take time.

On a CV19 note, Zoe is reporting plus 1400 for my area ....from about 3700 to over 5100. That is a massive increase. Massive for 24 hours.