Corona Virus main thread

[ricardo 7,395]

[Rock The Boat 1,332]

2 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

Saw this in Guardian when looking up the dailt figures.

Pretty good summary which is in line with my expressed thoughts as per earlier comments..

 

In an article for the Guardian, Stephen Reicher, a professor of psychology at the University of St Andrews and an adviser to the UK and Scottish governments, says Boris Johnson’s decision to ignore Sage’s call for a short, hard lockdown (a “circuit breaker”) has left the UK in “the worst of all worlds”. Here’s an extract.

We now find ourselves occupying the worst of all worlds: a limbo where the pandemic drags on and causes more damage, leaving us hopeless and praying for a vaccine. The government’s policy of continuous local lockdowns will disrupt everyday lives and damage businesses, but it won’t suppress the virus. England’s chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, conceded as much in a recent press briefing: in an extraordinary piece of political theatre, he followed the prime minister’s announcement of the three-tier system with a warning that these new measures won’t work …

In the end the problem is what it has always been. We have a government entirely without a strategy to deal with this pandemic. We have a cabinet entirely without a vision or a strength of purpose, reacting in panic to events as they arise rather than devising the means to get on top of them. And we have a prime minister who craves approval and wants to please everyone, who lacks the strength to face down his backbenchers and ends up with half-measures that help nobody. At a time when we need it most, the country has been saddled with a woeful lack of leadership.

 

But he's wrong, isn't he? A lockdown for a month will achieve what he wants in terms of infections decreasing and the R0 declining after a time. After which the lockdown will be rescinded and people will return to their old, bad habits of ignoring the medical advice, going out to crowded pubs and socialising just as they were before the lockdown and then the numbers will start rising again. The worse possible scenario is alternating  between lockdown and rising infection rates leading to lockdown once again. As every cycle means further wholesale destruction to the economy.

There are serious measures that could be taken to solve the problem of keeping the economy going while tackling the virus that a strong and determined government could take but there would be universal outrage at the suggestion of them being implemented because people wouldn't tolerate the measures. Such measures would include shipping Covid sufferers to isolation hospitals where they would probably die given the age profile of most of them, and locking up in detention camps away from the general public those people breaking the social distancing rules, found not wearing masks etc. It's something that you'd expect China to do -  but it wouldn't be tolerated here. And the reality is that without a vaccine the virus is unlikely to go away in the near future.

[Rock The Boat 1,332]

1 hour ago, The Real Buh said:

Boris and his buddies have dithered and messed this up. It’s cost lives, there’s no doubt about it. I do have some sympathy for them, this is an unprecedented situation definitely, but things could and should have been done differently. Hopefully there’s a big old report into this once the dust settles

But the political point scoring. My god. My GOD. I expect it from sturgeon, she’s a shameless waste of human skin who runs a third world country. Literally “Englands hat”. They’ll get around to dealing with the current health crisis after it’s dealt with the obesity and heroin addiction. Operation “blame England” in full swing again, it has just ramped up. Big surprise. What a shocker eh? Nice haircut btw you cave troll.

And now Kier Starmer has decided he needs to have an opinion as he’s been accused of being a failure as a leader, something he achieved massively at CPS by the way. Total professional lifetime failure on everything he’s ever done. Remember when labour was the workers party? Now he wants to devastate the economy even more than it is already and it’s got absolutely zero to do with “public health” the guy would sell his grandma for 50p he’s scum, he’s just red scum rather than blue scum. I mean SIR Kier Starmer? He’s literally posher than Boris. He’s got the personality and intelligence of a flattened saucepan. And absolute total pleb.

Just in case anybody needed to know this groundbreaking information you are in this on your own. You’ve got your own wits and it’s your responsibility to take care of yourself and the ones you care about. These people in “power” hate you and would trample on your neck to get 1 single vote. Take them for what they are. I look at a politician, any politician, and they aren’t even human to me. Literally sub-human. Please take care guys, because they don’t care about you. At all. Rant very much over.

The problem right now isn't what the goverment does or doesn't do. They have messed up big time over the past nine months and there are plenty of things that they can be blamed for. But the problem right now is the behaviour of the Great British Public and more specifically those who refuse to follow the rules of social distancing, face-mask wearing, washing of hands and mixing outside their bubbles. If students insist on attending Fresher's parties, if partygoers insist on attending raves, if workers insist on Friday night drinks in crowded pubs, if shoppers refuse to wear masks and keep their distance then the virus is going to spread. Until Joe public behaves responsibly, it doesn't matter what the government - or regional mayor - does, the virus will  remain with us.

[sonyc 5,525]

14 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

The problem right now isn't what the goverment does or doesn't do. They have messed up big time over the past nine months and there are plenty of things that they can be blamed for. But the problem right now is the behaviour of the Great British Public and more specifically those who refuse to follow the rules of social distancing, face-mask wearing, washing of hands and mixing outside their bubbles. If students insist on attending Fresher's parties, if partygoers insist on attending raves, if workers insist on Friday night drinks in crowded pubs, if shoppers refuse to wear masks and keep their distance then the virus is going to spread. Until Joe public behaves responsibly, it doesn't matter what the government - or regional mayor - does, the virus will  remain with us.

I think there is an element of truth in your points.

In terms of messaging, the government could have been far more direct, to have 'frightened' the public far more than it has done through media outlets (showing the effect of Covid on people etc.....) a bit like the shock tactics used in drinking and driving over the years. I've seen nothing of this sort and I have been dismayed by the behaviour of a significant minority, some of whom must either be quite dim or ignorant or perhaps don't appear to care. 

[Mark .Y. 352]

Is it not really the truth that nothing really improves until the vaccine arrives and is administered into a reasonable number of people

Edited October 13, 2020 by Mark .Y.

[nevermind, neoliberalism has had it 159]

when soldiers came back wounded from the first world war, Thorpe St. Andrew , then the 'lunatic asylum', was re designated for soldiers and those with mental disabilities had wooden schacks build for them in the gardens.

When schools have an influx of children, we can provide accommodation/mobile classrooms in no time at all.

here we are with some 200 specialist in our NHS hospitals providing a mainly covid pandemic service, only, a COVID NHS.

We build two nightingale hospitals , named them and flouted the idea of actually using them, BUT, why are we not building a dedicated covid only medical facilities? leaving the NHS to deal with the burgeoning backlog, servicing cancer patients heart transplants, and the many other services we are currently diverting into the future. Why can we not set our own covid response teams and the facilities to deal with it alone, without collapsing the NHS, ready for takeover by the US health companies, licking their lips at the prospect of taking over some 40 taxpayer paid fo,r brand new hospitals?

We are being played like patsies!

[Barbe bleu 826]

4 minutes ago, nevermind, neoliberalism has had it said:

when soldiers came back wounded from the first world war, Thorpe St. Andrew , then the 'lunatic asylum', was re designated for soldiers and those with mental disabilities had wooden schacks build for them in the gardens.

When schools have an influx of children, we can provide accommodation/mobile classrooms in no time at all.

here we are with some 200 specialist in our NHS hospitals providing a mainly covid pandemic service, only, a COVID NHS.

We build two nightingale hospitals , named them and flouted the idea of actually using them, BUT, why are we not building a dedicated covid only medical facilities? leaving the NHS to deal with the burgeoning backlog, servicing cancer patients heart transplants, and the many other services we are currently diverting into the future. Why can we not set our own covid response teams and the facilities to deal with it alone, without collapsing the NHS, ready for takeover by the US health companies, licking their lips at the prospect of taking over some 40 taxpayer paid fo,r brand new hospitals?

We are being played like patsies!

My local hospital built a whole new temporary ward for covid patients. In hospital grounds but freestanding.I'm pretty sure that the idea was that if things got worse they could in effect run two parallel systems 

[Yellow Fever 3,792]

1 hour ago, Rock The Boat said:

But he's wrong, isn't he? A lockdown for a month will achieve what he wants in terms of infections decreasing and the R0 declining after a time. After which the lockdown will be rescinded and people will return to their old, bad habits of ignoring the medical advice, going out to crowded pubs and socialising just as they were before the lockdown and then the numbers will start rising again. The worse possible scenario is alternating  between lockdown and rising infection rates leading to lockdown once again. As every cycle means further wholesale destruction to the economy.

There are serious measures that could be taken to solve the problem of keeping the economy going while tackling the virus that a strong and determined government could take but there would be universal outrage at the suggestion of them being implemented because people wouldn't tolerate the measures. Such measures would include shipping Covid sufferers to isolation hospitals where they would probably die given the age profile of most of them, and locking up in detention camps away from the general public those people breaking the social distancing rules, found not wearing masks etc. It's something that you'd expect China to do -  but it wouldn't be tolerated here. And the reality is that without a vaccine the virus is unlikely to go away in the near future.

I agree with you but the issue real issue was the lack of a plan or effective TTI when the spring /summer lockdown ended - confounded by an ungodly deliberate rush to re-open up the economy indeed encourage all to eat out and party! We are all now paying a very dear price for that foolishness.

However, if we carry on as we are - then as sure as night follows day the hospitals will rapidly fill up, schools and businesses will start to close due to staff absence / quarantines (just as in March) eventually forcing the government's hand and we'll end up in an ever deeper pile of **** than we are at present. A short sharp lock down now will save a much deeper, longer lockdown later.

What is the alternative ? Anybody who thinks they can 'shelter' is really fooling themselves in the long term if the virus is rife outside. It will find you just like the common cold does and then you'll have to take your sad chances in an overwhelmed NHS. 

[nevermind, neoliberalism has had it 159]

2 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

My local hospital built a whole new temporary ward for covid patients. In hospital grounds but freestanding.I'm pretty sure that the idea was that if things got worse they could in effect run two parallel systems 

with a need for 40.000 staff, nurses and doctors that were scared off by Brexiteers and their right wing slogans, they can't operate any service as it should be. The plan seems to be to run it down until we are fed up and accept a system that is orientated and run by private commercial interest, not that of patients.

[Well b back 3,208]

On the vaccine thread many will know that the vaccine was expected for the vulnerable around now. This interview throws some doubt on that and asks the question had Boris planned for the launch of the vaccine now ?  and now is he panicking ? Only a question not a statement.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8831175/Slim-chance-Oxfords-coronavirus-vaccine-ready-2020-jab-chief-says.html

[Barbe bleu 826]

16 minutes ago, Well b back said:

On the vaccine thread many will know that the vaccine was expected for the vulnerable around now. This interview throws some doubt on that and asks the question had Boris planned for the launch of the vaccine now ?  and now is he panicking ? Only a question not a statement.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8831175/Slim-chance-Oxfords-coronavirus-vaccine-ready-2020-jab-chief-says.html

Well that's disappointing. I do hope its expectation management.   

If there is no vaccine until 2021 there is no point in a circuit breaker. .a short lockdown might buy us some time if its as restrictive as that in March but no way will it buy us enough time to last until new year. it would serve only to delay the inevitable until the hospitals are already busy for the winter peak.

 

 

[Well b back 3,208]

10 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Well that's disappointing. I do hope its expectation management.   

If there is no vaccine until 2021 there is no point in a circuit breaker. .a short lockdown might buy us some time if its as restrictive as that in March but no way will it buy us enough time to last until new year. it would serve only to delay the inevitable until the hospitals are already busy for the winter peak.

 

 

Interesting article but I wonder if the interview was done sometime ago, there is quite a bit of incorrect info ie it says all vaccines will require at least 2 doses - not correct, however it does mention Johnson and Johnson going on hold, which has only just happened.

It is being hinted that WHO are currently looking at authorising one of the Chinese vaccines hence why China is now signed up to COVAX.

[Tetteys Jig 830]

1 hour ago, Barbe bleu said:

Well that's disappointing. I do hope its expectation management.   

If there is no vaccine until 2021 there is no point in a circuit breaker. .a short lockdown might buy us some time if its as restrictive as that in March but no way will it buy us enough time to last until new year. it would serve only to delay the inevitable until the hospitals are already busy for the winter peak.

 

 

sounds like nothing we didn't know already, the way she talks was inferring full approval as well, basically they're not keen on emergency approval... If it's here and being widely distributed by early next year then we'll be very fortunate! I have basically written off this year now personally. I too had optimistically hoped for Oxford to be ready to go by October but it was always optimistic.

If anything, I think this does vindicate the circuit breaker option. We basically have this winter remaining to suppress the virus. If its still going on with no vaccine or treatment by this time next year then the game is up and we will have to live with the consequences of whatever the virus throws at us.

[sonyc 5,525]

I'm hearing tonight that Greater Manchester, Lancashire and Bradford may be going into tier 3. Summit meeting in the morning. Papers reporting pubs etc might be closed for a month plus no household mixing. New cases are shooting upwards.

[Barbe bleu 826]

7 hours ago, Tetteys Jig said:

If anything, I think this does vindicate the circuit breaker option. We basically have this winter remaining to suppress the virus. If its still going on with no vaccine or treatment by this time next year then the game is up and we will have to live with the consequences of whatever the virus throws at us.

Well if sonyc is right we'll soon have so many places in the top tiers that the national circuit breaker will have been imposed under a different name.

As we know though lockdowns don't eliminate the virus, they just postpone it.   That's fine if you are seeking to clear hospitals, buy ventilators, find a cure or reduce the spread just before vaccination but unless there is something with which to fill the time I see no point, you'll be putting people out of work for little gain.

[Van wink 2,994]

I’m certainly in favour of a half term lockdown, it’s important to prevent spread of virus particularly to areas like North Norfolk, taking a selfish view, from areas of high incidence. 

[Tetteys Jig 830]

57 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Well if sonyc is right we'll soon have so many places in the top tiers that the national circuit breaker will have been imposed under a different name.

As we know though lockdowns don't eliminate the virus, they just postpone it.   That's fine if you are seeking to clear hospitals, buy ventilators, find a cure or reduce the spread just before vaccination but unless there is something with which to fill the time I see no point, you'll be putting people out of work for little gain.

we potentially have 6 months of winter and an inevitable peak. We either chance it and hope it doesn't top out too high, much like Sweden did last wave or we try further measures to suppress it. If we are coming at winter with a much lower base rate of infection, there's a chance we can avoid a huge hit to lives and the NHS.

This all assumes that there would naturally be a winter peak though...

[Barbe bleu 826]

13 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

we potentially have 6 months of winter and an inevitable peak. We either chance it and hope it doesn't top out too high, much like Sweden did last wave or we try further measures to suppress it. If we are coming at winter with a much lower base rate of infection, there's a chance we can avoid a huge hit to lives and the NHS.

This all assumes that there would naturally be a winter peak though...

Lets say they go for a three week national lockdown at around  half-term. It will reduce (but not eliminate) spread and numbers but on day 3 weeks plus 1 , the numbers will grow again and we will be facing a peak.  Is the peak going to be delayed until spring or summer because of a three week lockdown?  I can't see it. The shorter the circuit breaker, the sooner the delayed peak.

[Well b back 3,208]

10 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

 

 

[Thirsty Lizard 3,165]

[Well b back 3,208]

I thought the traffic light system was a Boris thing ?. I have just read in the NY Times that this is a European directive, that European countries are not forced but asked to do from yep Tuesday. The rest of Europe I am guessing are saying not good enough though. Maybe they nicked Boris’s idea but that’s not what it says.

The European Union on Tuesday adopted new guidelines aimed at coordinating members’ varying travel measures. The bloc will now use a single map with a color-coded system to denote the scale of outbreaks: green at the low end of risk, orange in the middle and red at the high end.

Other measures include unifying how quarantines and testing are done to smooth travel between E.U. countries, and ensuring ample warning when national travel advisories are about to change to ensure that travelers aren’t left stranded.

But the measures are not mandatory, and individual member states said they wanted to reserve the right to take unilateral action, including stepping up restrictions or changing the risk category for regions based on their own assessments.

[sonyc 5,525]

1 hour ago, Barbe bleu said:

Lets say they go for a three week national lockdown at around  half-term. It will reduce (but not eliminate) spread and numbers but on day 3 weeks plus 1 , the numbers will grow again and we will be facing a peak.  Is the peak going to be delayed until spring or summer because of a three week lockdown?  I can't see it. The shorter the circuit breaker, the sooner the delayed peak.

It's a dilemma and depends what is done whilst the breaker is deployed (economic support could be improved, local T & T could be developed more with resource plus a major campaign aimed at better messaging of the irresponsible social 'un'distancers....some hard hitting campaign, getting everybody on board so that mixing is seen as anti-social ....you get the idea).

A breaker is arguably better in areas with low infection rates. It helps prevent growth rather than urgently trying to stop hospitalisations. If we had an idea of a vaccine then one might plan to put on the brakes in a lead up period.

[sonyc 5,525]

1 hour ago, Well b back said:

I thought the traffic light system was a Boris thing ?. I have just read in the NY Times that this is a European directive, that European countries are not forced but asked to do from yep Tuesday. The rest of Europe I am guessing are saying not good enough though. Maybe they nicked Boris’s idea but that’s not what it says.

The European Union on Tuesday adopted new guidelines aimed at coordinating members’ varying travel measures. The bloc will now use a single map with a color-coded system to denote the scale of outbreaks: green at the low end of risk, orange in the middle and red at the high end.

Other measures include unifying how quarantines and testing are done to smooth travel between E.U. countries, and ensuring ample warning when national travel advisories are about to change to ensure that travelers aren’t left stranded.

But the measures are not mandatory, and individual member states said they wanted to reserve the right to take unilateral action, including stepping up restrictions or changing the risk category for regions based on their own assessments.

I follow a couple of other countries and the traffic light system has been used before....

Summary here.

How effective 'traffic-light' systems have been in managing the coronavirus outbreak in other countries?

https://inews.co.uk/news/world/traffic-light-systems-covid-outbreak-france-spain-new-zealand-703205

 

 

[Well b back 3,208]

3 minutes ago, sonyc said:

It's a dilemma and depends what is done whilst the breaker is deployed (economic support could be improved, local T & T could be developed more with resource plus a major campaign aimed at better messaging of the irresponsible social 'un'distancers....some hard hitting campaign, getting everybody on board so that mixing is seen as anti-social ....you get the idea).

A breaker is arguably better in areas with low infection rates. It helps prevent growth rather than urgently trying to stop hospitalisations. If we had an idea of a vaccine then one might plan to put on the brakes in a lead up period.

Spot on. Get new infections down then start Track and Trace again, from a manageable base. Get the message across it may not kill you, but we don’t know if you catch it what will happen to your body in a couple of years time.

As I mentioned before I am convinced Boris and the governments plans were the vaccine would be out this month. Whatever has gone wrong ( it now looks like end of this year / next year ) has caused panic, only its to late and they now have nobody to blame as the likes of SAGE and Oxford went public on their advice and so far their predictions are within a whisker of their expected outcome. Chillingly the SAGE document predicted dire outcomes if we didn’t circuit breaker 2 weeks ago, and 3 months before that Oxford told the government if you change the message to stay aware the hospitals will be overwhelmed by mid November.

[Well b back 3,208]

12 minutes ago, sonyc said:

I follow a couple of other countries and the traffic light system has been used before....

Summary here.

How effective 'traffic-light' systems have been in managing the coronavirus outbreak in other countries?

https://inews.co.uk/news/world/traffic-light-systems-covid-outbreak-france-spain-new-zealand-703205

 

 

Thanks

Did Boris forget to tell us it’s a European advice. I note in the NY Times article while we are taking it on board other European Countries are giving up on it.

[sonyc 5,525]

6 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Thanks

Did Boris forget to tell us it’s a European advice. I note in the NY Times article while we are taking it on board other European Countries are giving up on it.

Yes, I think basically a lot of areas are going / have gone red in France.

[sonyc 5,525]

16 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Spot on. Get new infections down then start Track and Trace again, from a manageable base. Get the message across it may not kill you, but we don’t know if you catch it what will happen to your body in a couple of years time.

As I mentioned before I am convinced Boris and the governments plans were the vaccine would be out this month. Whatever has gone wrong ( it now looks like end of this year / next year ) has caused panic, only its to late and they now have nobody to blame as the likes of SAGE and Oxford went public on their advice and so far their predictions are within a whisker of their expected outcome. Chillingly the SAGE document predicted dire outcomes if we didn’t circuit breaker 2 weeks ago, and 3 months before that Oxford told the government if you change the message to stay aware the hospitals will be overwhelmed by mid November.

On R4 Today programme this morning they had a scientist predicting another 20000 deaths by the end of the year without a locking down (his worse case scenario) to c.12000 if we implemented one. With those numbers (and they ARE models) then you could see how hospitals would be under pressure.

 

Edit: Unhelpfully, it seems to be emerging that more conservative thinkers want the economy open rather than a lockdown (louder voices on this), whilst those towards the left want stricter measures. Consensus seems at a knife edge as is the infection rate.

Edited October 14, 2020 by sonyc

[Well b back 3,208]

14 minutes ago, sonyc said:

On R4 Today programme this morning they had a scientist predicting another 20000 deaths by the end of the year without a locking down (his worse case scenario) to c.12000 if we implemented one. With those numbers (and they ARE models) then you could see how hospitals would be under pressure.

 

Edit: Unhelpfully, it seems to be emerging that more conservative thinkers want the economy open rather than a lockdown (louder voices on this), whilst those towards the left want stricter measures. Consensus seems at a knife edge as is the infection rate.

Oxfords figures for the winter were far graver than that, but at the time some of the treatments that now seem to be doing ok were only just being trialled. Remember at the time as well they were also telling the government BCG needed more investment for trials but the government waited 3 months before taking that advice.

[Well b back 3,208]

Breaking news I think, schools to close in Northern Ireland for 2 weeks, Boris will act with his rule of hindsight soon I reckon.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-54533643

[Well b back 3,208]

Just read more of it looks like Northern Ireland going into a circuit break. Hospitality shut down, except for takeaways, mixing of households banned no unnecessary travel ect ect. It seems they think ( from the science ) schools and hospitality are what’s causing the spike ?

1/10 a Boris U-Turn saying we have always followed the science

1/1 He sacks Matt Hancock for ignoring the scientific advice

1/1 We will shut down the North of England

6/4 He blames Europe or Track and Trace

2/1 We don’t follow suit

4/1 He says the science is rubbish

250/1 he loses a vote of no confidence and has to resign or go to the country