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12 minutes ago, BigFish said:

Maybe this is why we are loosening lockdown?

No' that is in part that they are merely standing beside the open stable door,  telling us that it was their idea that the horse should leave the stable

The real difficulty and strain on the marginal lead (19 points clear 6th May) will be when they attempt to her kids back into schools in the coming weeks

Mind you, I expect Eton, Harrow and St Pauls to be the first ....................... ūüôĄ

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5 minutes ago, T said:

Germany is surrounded by hotspots. 48pc of all German cases have been traced back to Austrian apres  ski which was a super spreader for Europe. Germany was one of the first countries to experience significant cases from China before the UK due to close manufacturing contacts with China.  
 

I’d agree that it helps that Germany had over 5 times the ICUs and PPE stocks and that was a government decision but also Germany used the private ventilator testing and tracing capacity that it already had and expanded from it rather than the UK whole flawed approach of trying to build everything itself centrally from scratch rather than use develop and expand what was already available in UK and elsewhere.  Not an intelligent approach in a crisis. Poor preparation and poor execution in the UK and it just continues and will continue when you have incompetent Brexit ideologist leaders. Does any seriously think Boris is competent and Cummings is trustworthy? 
 

Others  may be happy to simply dismiss deny and make excuses for a government that has  an estimated 60000 excess deaths and one of the worst performance in the world  This is what you get with a brexit mentality and it needs to change if the UK is to realise the undoubted potential of its  people  

 

 

Your post is just riddled with assumptions and that’s my point. Just a few examples.

‚ÄĚGermany is surrounded by hotspots‚ÄĚ what does that even mean? What major influence does geography have in a globalised world? If it did as an island on the edge of Europe you‚Äôd expect us to have done way better regardless of handling.¬†However where‚Äôs the busiest International Passenger Hub¬†in Europe? London.

“Germany was one of the first countries to experience significant cases from China“ again no, it was the first to recognise the cases, we have no idea if it was the first to experience them n and absolutely no idea if it received more volume than others.

‚Äúthe UK whole flawed approach of trying to build everything itself centrally from scratch rather than use develop and expand what was already available in UK and elsewhere‚ÄĚ

Pretty sure we did try to maximise supplies and equipment from the U.K. and the problem with ‚Äúelsewhere‚ÄĚ when looking for supplies is¬†you are not only competing with that country but every other one looking for it.

‚ÄúPoor preparation and poor execution in the UK and it just continues and will continue when you have incompetent Brexit ideologist leaders.‚ÄĚ

And this is the worst thing that actually gets my back up about your posts, leaders make the decisions, but the civil servants and public services are the ones working and enacting on them. 

Criticise the political decisions made by the government by all means, I’ll probably agree. But once the decisions have been made they aren’t the ones enacting them and you are basically criticising an entire countries worth of people working hard on this problem when you talk sh!t about the execution.

Your posts lack any objectivity, especially if you compare the UK to other major players other than Germany.

 

 

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35 minutes ago, Bill said:

In hindsight with more evidence they are, and will, look 'poor'.

The real question though is how did they arrive at the various decisions, and who made them - what was their motivation, and of more concern their intent.

If Cummings was feeding various committees 'duff' information then any decision would be based on that info.

What decisions were made at Cobra when fat boy conveniently absented himself - just as he did for 12 days during the onset of this virus in February.

So is it case of Knave or Joker - or in fat boy's case a dangerous cocktail of both ?

Johnson - Get him gone

By far the biggest mistake in my eyes was too much focus on the NHS and virtually nothing on care homes. We should have been wrapping them up in Bubble wrap not just waiting till the residents turned up in ICU.

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55 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Fair enough.  Why not set up a two standard paragraphs that you can copy and paste in? Probably save you a few minutes each day.  Start with the german experience, pit some bespoke text in the middle and end with the blame Brexit bit.  A sort of cut and paste german brexit sandwich if you will.

 

....und pommes frites mit mayo....Ja das ist gut!.....

Edited by Mello Yello

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1 minute ago, Monty13 said:

By far the biggest mistake in my eyes was too much focus on the NHS and virtually nothing on care homes. We should have been wrapping them up in Bubble wrap not just waiting till the residents turned up in ICU.

Don't forget the policy was also to empty hospitals of the elderly into care homes. Virtually playing Russian Roulette but with twice as many shells in the revolver.

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Just now, Monty13 said:

By far the biggest mistake in my eyes was too much focus on the NHS and virtually nothing on care homes. We should have been wrapping them up in Bubble wrap not just waiting till the residents turned up in ICU.

Which I would suggest was the consequence of an underfunded health system. One that had long cut the ''care system' off from the main Health service - and dumped it on the private sector.

So the question remains - what was the cause of those now obvious mistakes ?

Incompetence or intent ?

Johnson - Get him gone

 

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25 minutes ago, Bill said:

No' that is in part that they are merely standing beside the open stable door,  telling us that it was their idea that the horse should leave the stable

The real difficulty and strain on the marginal lead (19 points clear 6th May) will be when they attempt to her kids back into schools in the coming weeks

Mind you, I expect EA fuller explanation of how this has affect the poll ratings

ton, Harrow and St Pauls to be the first ....................... ūüôĄ

A fuller explanation of how this has affected the Tories and Johnsons poll ratings

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/30/tory-poll-lead-collapses-as-voters-say-cummings-should-go

Now, we are all aware how fluid polls can be. However these figures are a sure rebuttal to the righties on here who said that this would all soon blow over

A week on and the effect is actually further depressing the above two's ratings - as it has been a rallying point for voters who have grown disenchanted with the lies and incompetence of those supposed to be running things.

At the moment the 'herd instinct' is those in government trying to keep up with the herd...the rest of us

And it maybe like Kettering Town FC appointing Gazza as their manager many now recognise the error of Johnsons appointment.

Johnson - Get him gone

 

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Bill, much as I dislike the present state of the government and of having Johnson in charge,  your constant repeating "Johnson - Get him gone" is not acceptable.  He was elected with a huge majority in a democratic process and this is not the place to call for someone's head, whoever it is.  It is after all predominately a football forum and although we are allowed to discuss other things, it is not the place to start social media style political campaigns. 

Give your opinions, as you always do, however flawed, but stop the "Get him gone" stuff. It is out of place.

 

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1 hour ago, keelansgrandad said:

Don't forget the policy was also to empty hospitals of the elderly into care homes. Virtually playing Russian Roulette but with twice as many shells in the revolver.

I'll agree with this.  Clearing the hospitals in preparation for a surge is both standard and sensible. Sending them to care homes without even giving a beat guess as to covid status does seem illogical. Especially if there are doubts about how well infection  control can be managed there

On a wider point how does our propensity to put the elderly in care homes compare to the rest of the Europe?   Is a lot of what we are seeing a structural issue?

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To further compound the incompetence that has seen so may needless deaths, we now have the all singing and dancing 'track and trace',

Whereby anyone with the symptoms of the virus will be asked to cough up* the names and the contact details of those they have been in contact with. Who will then be contacted and told they have to stay indoors and quarantine themselves for 14 days. or

................nothing. No checks, no enforcement and no sanctions either

Of course more effective systems have been in place and running successfully in other countries - months back.

And also run by local government agencies who looked to co-ordinate with other agencies.

Whereas the same 'profit before people' mentality has seen this vital process handed over the incompetent private sector. After all, however serious this is, money can still be made if enough corners are cut.

Speaking tonight, the minister for closing  stable doors has said "we hope to close the door when we can identify where it is located, and then how to close it. And we expect 200,000 stable doors to have been closed by Monday''

 

* pun intended

Johnson - Get him gone

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2 hours ago, BigFish said:

Maybe this is why we are loosening lockdown?

image.thumb.png.46dcd521fec9083deb0b954f0052580a.png

I think Cummings and then Johnson have holed the good ship 'Government' beneath the water line. She's taking on water and is now its only a question of time until she sinks. The captain will go down with the ship along with all hands.

As to the relaxing of the lockdown .. again its rushed clearly for political reasons and with the new 'Cummings' law in play most will rapidly all but ignore it. Track and trace .. horse bolted already.

Sadly I expect the number of cases to pickup probably requiring a reintroduction of a more severe restriction ... all while we watch enviously our far more sensible european cousins opening safely.

Edited by Yellow Fever

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22 minutes ago, Herman said:

What about "Get Lost Fatty"?

cheers

I was rather stuck for the first two words if

it were to be a three word message ūü§£

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2 hours ago, BigFish said:

She was wong??? No she wasn't wong (sic), it was part of a wider argument where the public health experts were laying out why the easing of lockdown is way too early. Still as one of the leading public health experts in the country what does she know compared to some bloke on a football message board. That you didn't know or care who she was when you posted tells its own story.

No, she was factually incorrect, she said "Daily deaths higher than anticipated --> past 3 days have been 412, 377, 324 compared to last week's 363, 338, 351"......... when anybody who had properly thought about it would have anticipated it, they were not higher than anticipated and she should have realised that the figures were skewed by the BH weekend, she should have looked beyond those particular three days.

I don't mind her having her own opinion on whether easing of the lockdown is too early or not, she is very much entitled to that, but she has twisted the figures to suit her view.

I may be just a bloke on a football message board and she could be the Queen of Sheba for all I care but facts are facts and that is what I prefer to rely on.

 And also, by your thinking, I assume that Boris Johnson, who holds a position far higher than she does, must always be correct.

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17 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I think Cummings and then Johnson have holed the good ship 'Government' beneath the water line. She's taking on water and is now its only a question of time until she sinks. The captain will go down with the ship along with all hands.

As to the relaxing of the lockdown .. again its rushed clearly for political reasons and with the new 'Cummings' law in play most will rapidly all but ignore it. Track and trace .. horse bolted already.

Sadly I expect the number of cases to pickup probably requiring a reintroduction of a more severe restriction ... all while we watch enviously our far more sensible european cousins opening safely.

How do you think the government is going to sink exactly considering the Tories massive majority and the fact we are over 4 years from a GE?

Despite everything they are still 4 points ahead of Labour in the poll you are quoting. Can’t see Boris going anywhere for a long time personally. 

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3 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I think Cummings and then Johnson have holed the good ship 'Government' beneath the water line. She's taking on water and is now its only a question of time until she sinks. The captain will go down with the ship along with all hands.

As to the relaxing of the lockdown .. again its rushed clearly for political reasons and with the new 'Cummings' law in play most will rapidly all but ignore it. Track and trace .. horse bolted already.

Sadly I expect the number of cases to pickup probably requiring a reintroduction of a more severe restriction ... all while we watch enviously are far more sensible european cousins opening safely.

The problem is, that in his first big test fat boy has failed so badly - and the excuses won't wash when so many supposedly 'lesser' countries have done so much better in protecting their citizens.

What will come out is fat boy's sheer laziness.

Missing for 12 days in Februar,y he had to be hauled back to London in 2013 after the riots had been running for days.  And then responded by spaffing money up the wall on useless water cannon.

Any attempt to bring back a lockdown will not be met with the same response this time. The trust in government and Johnson in particular has been seriously damaged in the past seven days.

Anyone out and about this week will see that the  social distancing guidance is being ignored, as is the idea that masks should be worn They about as rare now as a penny black stamp

With the confused advice about returning to school and work coupled with the likely need to extend the Brexit transition period the liar will struggle to waffle his way out of these next few months.

Johnson - Get him gone

 

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18 minutes ago, Monty13 said:

How do you think the government is going to sink exactly considering the Tories massive majority and the fact we are over 4 years from a GE?

Despite everything they are still 4 points ahead of Labour in the poll you are quoting. Can’t see Boris going anywhere for a long time personally. 

4 points after a 19 point lead a few weeks back

Johnson can be booted out by his party and the current government replaced if it continues to fail

Whatever the majority, it does not mean legislation will pass through Parliament and looking at the massive Tory Mp revolt calling for Cummings to be sacked it suggests there are numerous Tory MPs who are more attuned to the constituencies concerns than they are the party line.

Trying to push through a hard right agenda against what is certain to be a country in a recession does not bode well.

The current position is what you would expect after 3 or 4 years of government - not a few months.

Johnson - Get him gone

 

Edited by Bill

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5 minutes ago, Bill said:

4 points after a 19 point lead a few weeks back

Johnson can be booted out by his party and the current government replaced if it continues to fail

Whatever the majority, it does not mean legislation will pass through Parliament and looking at the massive Tory Mp revolt calling for Cummings to be sacked it suggests there are numerous Tory MPs who are more attuned to the constituencies concerns than they are the party line.

Trying to push through a hard right agenda against what is certain to be a country in a recession does not bode well.

The current position is what you would expect after 3 or 4 years of government - not a few months.

Johnson - Get him gone

 

There’s a difference between MPs voicing upset at the Cummings situation and open revolt against government policy to the point of voting against the government, you know this. It would have to be an absolutely stunning revolt against the government by backbenchers for them to fail to pass legislation.

Its the very fact that his position is so strong that he probably hasn’t sacked him.

 

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It will mean legislation having to be watered down - and will embolden dissidents further as they know they will not be risking government defeat.

It maybe forgotten what this governments intent is - a huge reduction in legislation, and environmental and work place protection. You need only to look across to the US to see what happens when voters are pushed so far. What is happening there is now little more than anti Trump sentiment. Johnson can only continue lying and fcking things up for so long.

As to why he has not sacked Cummings is because Johnson is not in charge of him. Others are. Johnson has been a useful tool to allow others to gain control, but his usefulness is wearing very thin now.

Johnson - Get him gone

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33 minutes ago, Monty13 said:

There’s a difference between MPs voicing upset at the Cummings situation and open revolt against government policy to the point of voting against the government, you know this. It would have to be an absolutely stunning revolt against the government by backbenchers for them to fail to pass legislation.

Its the very fact that his position is so strong that he probably hasn’t sacked him.

 

This year the full horror oF the Covid recession will hit let alone any 2nd wave.  The government is nailed on to get the full blame & no excuses allowed. Add to that a likely Brexit 'No Deal' fall out and Johnsn could be on course to be extremely unpopular.. A lightning rod for discontent.

The Tory's have history for defenestrating leaders seen as liabilities... Thatcher and then May.

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On 29/05/2020 at 13:48, Aggy said:

As I said in my post above, yes, a second wave could turn out to be a very real issue. 

But the S. Korea stats shouldn‚Äôt be used for scaremongering. As I‚Äôve said, despite¬†the ‚Äúsecond wave‚ÄĚ there, you‚Äôre still four times more likely to die in a car crash there than you are from coronavirus. The South Korea figures are so small in the first place that any jump looks worrying - but in reality a jump of 50 new recorded infections doesn‚Äôt mean there‚Äôs a full blown second break out. As can be seen by the fact it‚Äôs dropped back down again by 20 the day after.

South Korea new infections down again on the 29th - to 39 infections. Seems evidently clear the rise earlier in the week was due to an isolated outbreak at a warehouse which has been brought under control. As I said - the numbers there are so tiny that one pretty small isolated incident results in a huge percentage increase in new cases, but in reality it was still only 79 new infections in a day. 

What it shows is that, once down to manageable levels, you’ve got make sure you do actually manage it. Nip it in the bud before it becomes a problem.

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3 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

This year the full horror oF the Covid recession will hit let alone any 2nd wave.  The government is nailed on to get the full blame & no excuses allowed. Add to that a likely Brexit 'No Deal' fall out and Johnsn could be on course to be extremely unpopular.. A lightning rod for discontent.

The Tory's have history for defenestrating leaders seen as liabilities... Thatcher and then May.

The latter having a 'reasonable' degree of competence - but more important, hard work.

Johnson has neither.

He is a lazy toad who relies upon ;winging it'

His previous litany of failures have only had lost money as a consequence. Lost lives, on this massive scale will not so easily be laughed off as the bumbling of a pantomime act

We are looking at a supposed acclaimed health service overseeing one of the highest death rates per capita in the world

Save lives - sack Johnson

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4 minutes ago, Aggy said:

What it shows is that, once down to manageable levels, you’ve got make sure you do actually manage it. Nip it in the bud before it becomes a problem.

The difference in Korea is that it was always at manageable levels.

Through gross levels of incompetence the UK allowed the virus to almost run riot - and are now struggling to even get it under control

Korea is nearly the same size as the UK in population and has no open land borders with any country, just as the UK.

So why the huge difference in deaths ?

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6 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

This year the full horror oF the Covid recession will hit let alone any 2nd wave.  The government is nailed on to get the full blame & no excuses allowed. Add to that a likely Brexit 'No Deal' fall out and Johnsn could be on course to be extremely unpopular.. A lightning rod for discontent.

The Tory's have history for defenestrating leaders seen as liabilities... Thatcher and then May.

Agreed, I expect him to be gone. Might be a "resign the position to spend more time with his family" but he will obviously have been pushed into it. 

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6 minutes ago, Mark .Y. said:

Agreed, I expect him to be gone. Might be a "resign the position to spend more time with his family" but he will obviously have been pushed into it. 

Just one point there Marko, it'll be  " spend more time with his Families".  Just as Ryam Giggs retired to spend more time  with his brothers family and jon Terry with his team mates  family. So, three points then .

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14 hours ago, Aggy said:

Very back of a fag packet stuff here (and I’m not an accountant and haven’t got any experience of the dividend route) but I reckon if you had 65k going through either PAYE or going through your company and being paid to you as dividends you’d end up with:

Dividend route : 12,350 corporation tax, and 4,461.25 dividend tax. Total tax = 16,811.25 and take home = 48,188.75

PAYE route = 13,500 income tax and 5,160 national insurance. Total tax and NI = 18,660, take home = 46,340.

The company could probably put through some expenses to reduce corporation tax exposure (although reducing profit for dividends?) , but the shareholder isn’t getting any employer pension contribution for instance. If the PAYE employee is putting in a pension contribution pre-tax, and also getting an employer contribution on top, then in the long run I doubt there’s that much difference either in ultimate tax paid or take home + pension pot. If the ltd company is paying a salary of c.10k and the rest in dividends I can’t be bothered to work it out but doubt it changes too much. 

Aggy,  this gives quite a good breakdown of a "normal" situation. It assumes you pay your wife a salary, as many do, (or you have another employee) so you are entitled to the exemption from Employers NI contributions. As you can see, it is pretty close and shows that a small change in personal circumstances (eg not being able to claim the NI exemption) can make all the difference.

 

What are the new rates and allowances for 2020/21? 

For the 2020/21 tax year the position for English taxpayers is as follows:

The tax free personal allowance is unchanged at £12,500

The basic rate threshold remains at £50,000

The tax-free dividend allowance is still fixed at £2,000  

 

What is the most tax effective director's salary and dividends for 2020/21?

It's important to mention that in our article we assume the following:

Your contract is outside of IR35 - see here

You are UK tax resident

You are claiming the standard personal allowance

You are only drawing salary and dividends from your company

As a company director, traditionally the most tax effective profit extraction from your company is to take a low salary and the balance as dividends. The benefits of this strategy are as follows:

Taking a salary at the minimum level triggers a national insurance record for your state pension and the personal allowance level

Your company can claim the the cost of your salary as a corporation tax deduction, saving corporation tax at 19%

It's not necessary for your company to pay out all it's available profits. This means dividends can be managed to minimise your personal income tax liability

National Insurance isn't payable on dividends

 

Tax effective director's salary 2020/21- option 1

If you are able to claim the employment allowance (which is increasing to £4,000) then you may want to pay yourself a salary up to the level of the personal allowance (£12,500). For example this might be the case if you or your spouse work full-time in the business.

However this strategy will only be effective if you haven't already utilised the employment allowance against the NI due on your other employee's salaries.

On the basis you have surplus employment allowance, we recommend you pay yourself a salary up to the personal allowance of £12,500. You can then pay draw dividends of up to £37,500 without paying higher rate tax. (see above).

Using this approach, there will be £3,023 basic rate tax and Employee's national insurance to pay.  You can see how this is calculated below:

Employer's National Insurance - £512 (being £12,500 less Secondary Threshold £8,788 = £3,712 *13.8%) . However in this example we're assuming that this is covered by the employment allowance.

Personal allowance - £12,500 fully utilised against salary

No tax for the first £2,000 dividends due to the dividend allowance

£35,500 (£37,500 less £2,000) dividends taxed at 7.5% - £2,663

Employee's national insurance payable on salary - £360 (£12,500 less £9,500 = £3,000 * 12% (assuming NI letter = A)

Using this strategy you'll have net cash of £46,977 (£50,000 less £2,663 and £360) in your pocket after tax.

Your company will also have a corporation tax saving of £2,375 (£12,500 * 19%) with this strategy.

 

Tax effective director's salary 2020/21- option 2

The second option is to pay yourself a salary is to pay yourself a salary up to the Employer's National Insurance Threshold - for 2020/21 this is £732 a month or £8,784 per annum. Note this is actually less than the Employee's National Insurance Threshold which is £792 per month or £9,500 per annum.

You can then pay dividends of £41,216 without paying any higher rate tax (basic rate band of £50,000 less salary of £8,784).

At this level of dividends you will have basic rate tax to pay of £2,663 calculated as follows:

Nil tax up to personal allowance of £12,500 (used £8,784 for salary and £3,716 for dividends)

No tax on dividends of £2,000 due to the dividend allowance

£35,500 (£41,216 less £3,716 less £2,000) dividends taxable at 7.5% - £2,663

The net cash you'll receive is £47,337 (£50,000 less £2,663) in your pocket after tax.

The company will have a corporation tax saving of £1,669 (£8,784 * 19%) with this strategy.

 

The most tax effective salary and dividends for 2020/21: overall

Whilst option two results in more money in your pocket personally, there is a greater corporation tax saving in the first strategy.

So if you take into account the corporation tax saving when taking a higher salary, you would be better off by £346 if you choose the first option.

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Back on topic - are you ******** kidding me? They could only trace FIVE cases a week? And I wonder how many they can track with the new system - could it be as many as 50?  As more gross incompetence stories like this comes out the more vulnerable any party leader - even one with a large majority - becomes. 

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-05-31/extent-of-virus-tracing-capabilities-revealed/

Widespread contact tracing of coronavirus patients was stopped as PHE only had capacity to deal with five people a week

Johnson.jpg

Edited by Surfer

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1 hour ago, Surfer said:

Back on topic - are you ******** kidding me? They could only trace FIVE cases a week? And I wonder how many they can track with the new system - could it be as many as 50?  As more gross incompetence stories like this comes out the more vulnerable any party leader - even one with a large majority - becomes.

That is what I have been saying for some time, that we need to see the SAGE minutes of the meetings so we can see what the information was where decisions were made. Nothing so far suggests  that what comes out will not be more damaging to Johnson.

Meanwhile today's papers are keeping up with Bill as they report on both the trace damning failures and the knowledge now, that the government has lost the trust of the majority.

How badly the latter will play out over the next two months will have to be seen. But any attempts at heavy handedness could provoke a strong backlash. You have only to see what is happening (and spreading) in the US,  where a fellow rightwinger has lied and lied, all the while presiding over a catastrophic death toll, to wonder how much pent up anger there might be here.

While Trump is seen to be more concerned about time off to play golf, Johnson is concerned about taking time off, seemingly uninterested unless there is a photo opportunity for him to act the silly ars. Both responsible for the shambles that is their country's attempts to deal with the virus. Incompetence is bad enough, but indifference will not be forgotten.

And righties should be aware that for every death there will be a minimum of 10 close family and friends hit, and deeply hurt, by what many will regard as a needless death. A half million of those as a minimum.

The time for excuses is long past, as is I suspect voters patience

Time to go Fatboy

 

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"Common sense." The Darwin Awards are going to have a busy year.

 

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