Corona Virus main thread

[Barbe bleu 809]

6 minutes ago, A Load of Squit said:

From Twitter

Europe Covid deaths today

- United Kingdom 556

-

 

Spot the problem?

Is it that the reported number was 111 and not 556? The extra 400 odd are a correction.

 No cause for alarm the numbers still reducing thankngod

 

[Yellow Fever 3,733]

4 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Is it that the reported number was 111 and not 556? The extra 400 odd are a correction.

 No cause for alarm the numbers still reducing thankngod

 

Put 111 in the same list

Still tells and awkward fact.

[Icecream Snow 761]

They "found" another 445 deaths

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-extra-445-deaths-added-to-uks-covid-19-total-11998662

The cumulative total announced by the Department of Health on Sunday was 38,489, which is 556 below today's cumulative total of 39,045.

But since then, 445 deaths have been added to the historic data.

These are linked to cases that have been identified through testing undertaken by commercial partners, rather than in NHS and Public Health England laboratories.

[Essjayess 307]

4 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Put 111 in the same list

Still tells and awkward fact.

Yea...awkward fact for the rest of Europe excluding Germany, who are now way behind the UK in declaring actual ones who died not  just because of Covid, but with Covid present  while death cause was  something else, ones who died  not confirmed but suspicious, ones who died in hospital, in care homes, basically any death certificate that mentions Covid and its counted. No nation can be 100% perfect  but lets face it..nations like Spain , France etc even now, have  not added tens of thousands of deaths  and the UK started  dreadfully and painfully slowly getting to grips with things but officially way ahead in declaring deaths then the others.

[Herman 9,699]

That's some good spinning.

[FenwayFrank 2,450]

I noticed on the local news around 125 deaths have been attributed to covid  but weren’t tested 

[Icecream Snow 761]

14 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

Yea...awkward fact for the rest of Europe excluding Germany, who are now way behind the UK in declaring actual ones who died not  just because of Covid, but with Covid present  while death cause was  something else, ones who died  not confirmed but suspicious, ones who died in hospital, in care homes, basically any death certificate that mentions Covid and its counted. No nation can be 100% perfect  but lets face it..nations like Spain , France etc even now, have  not added tens of thousands of deaths  and the UK started  dreadfully and painfully slowly getting to grips with things but officially way ahead in declaring deaths then the others.

A death certificate mentioning Covid-19 is ignored in the UK unless it is corroborated with a positive test for the coronavirus.

The 39,045 is people who have died after testing positive for Covid-19. That does not necessarily mean that they died from Covid-19, nor that they are all the people who died in the UK from Covid-19, only that they died after having been tested, or if an autopsy was required.

[Van wink 2,994]

8 hours ago, sonyc said:

It's interesting isn't it. Yet MPs (as pointed out on the other thread) have yet to decide to take their seats.

Not sure, I was initially very worried and critical of the latest easing of lockdown but Jenny gave a pretty good explanation of how the likelyhood of meeting an infected person is now considerably lower than before and Van Tan ( or Jenny ) was very clear on the current knowledge about outdoor transmission, and the reduced risk. Most of the easing relates to outdoor activity so I can follow the logic there. Also as far as little ones are concerned the risk is also low, but I am concerned about their ability to transmit to adults, but again Van Tan offered reasoned assurances on that.

As for parliament, that is indoors and and many members would be in vulnerable groups. 

Edited June 1, 2020 by Van wink

[Bill 1,788]

47 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Is it that the reported number was 111 and not 556? The extra 400 odd are a correction.

 No cause for alarm the numbers still reducing thankngod

Whereas the alarm is still going in that we have a government so incompetent that we have almost the highest death rate in the world. One far far higher than 3rd world countries.

That other European countries are now reporting deaths in single figures, we are still in treble figures/

Whatever enquiries and reports follow this gross mismanagement, nothing will return life to those lost....or reduce the grief felt by their friends and family.

We are bordering on criminal negligence. One that actually touches close to malpractice as the government failed to lockdown early.

And no amount of weasel words in defence of those responsible will change that

Get fatboy out

[Crafty Canary 495]

42 minutes ago, Herman said:

That's some good spinning.

Does that mean spinning can be defined as truth that does not fit with a pre-determined agenda?

[wcorkcanary 4,329]

1 hour ago, Crafty Canary said:

Does that mean spinning can be defined as truth that does not fit with a pre-determined agenda?

Spinning is the art of using an artificial   fish , duck, frog, rat etc to catch a fish.  Some lures or 'Spinners' do not resemble any living creature but stimulate an attack by use of flash, vibration or noise or any combination of the three. 

My favourite of many definitions. .

Edited June 1, 2020 by wcorkcanary

[Monty13 2,229]

2 hours ago, A Load of Squit said:

From Twitter

Europe Covid deaths today

- United Kingdom 556

- Italy 60

- Belgium 19

- Portugal 14

- Poland 10

- Sweden 8

- Netherlands 6

- Germany 5

- Greece 4

- Denmark 2

- Hungary 1

 

Spot the problem?

Where’s Spain and France on that list? Also pretty sure if It was deaths related to population that list looks a lot closer.

We’d still likely be top I imagine so I’m unclear of the need to spin.

Edited June 1, 2020 by Monty13

[Icecream Snow 761]

4 minutes ago, Monty13 said:

Where’s Spain and France on that list? Also pretty sure if It was deaths related to population that list looks a lot closer.

We’d still likely be too I imagine so I’m unclear of the need to spin.

Spain recorded zero deaths, France declared 31 later on.

[Monty13 2,229]

1 minute ago, Icecream Snow said:

Spain recorded zero deaths, France declared 31 later on.

Wow that’s a frankly amazing recovery by Spain, amazing news. 

I imagine if we’d locked down earlier we may have been similar to France by now.

[BigFish 1,986]

2 hours ago, Crafty Canary said:

Does that mean spinning can be defined as truth that does not fit with a pre-determined agenda?

Well @Essjayess just posted unfounded nonsense so there wasn't any truth involved. The idea that somehow the UK leads Europe in Covid deaths because we are European leading in counting them is fantastical. In fact the government numbers undercount UK excess deaths which are already over 60,000.

[T 190]

The brexiteers defence of the deadly abject performance  of the Brexit government has become so desperate that you can only wonder if they think having  one of the worst death and economic impacts from Covid 19 is something to be proud of or they have no shame whatsoever. If you pursue a course of brexit against logic reason expert advice with no plan after 4 years you can hardly expect the government to be competent to deal with a pandemic and so it has proved. The brexiteers are getting what they want at a horrendous cost to U.K. society. but apparently as long as they get what they want the cost to society doesn’t matter. It is worth it to them in their perverted view of the world. 

[Mello Yello 2,273]

33 minutes ago, T said:

The brexiteers defence of the deadly abject performance  of the Brexit government has become so desperate that you can only wonder if they think having  one of the worst death and economic impacts from Covid 19 is something to be proud of or they have no shame whatsoever. If you pursue a course of brexit against logic reason expert advice with no plan after 4 years you can hardly expect the government to be competent to deal with a pandemic and so it has proved. The brexiteers are getting what they want at a horrendous cost to U.K. society. but apparently as long as they get what they want the cost to society doesn’t matter. It is worth it to them in their perverted view of the world. 

What is this 'Brexit' that you speak of?.....

[Yellow Fever 3,733]

12 hours ago, Essjayess said:

Yea...awkward fact for the rest of Europe excluding Germany, who are now way behind the UK in declaring actual ones who died not  just because of Covid, but with Covid present  while death cause was  something else, ones who died  not confirmed but suspicious, ones who died in hospital, in care homes, basically any death certificate that mentions Covid and its counted. No nation can be 100% perfect  but lets face it..nations like Spain , France etc even now, have  not added tens of thousands of deaths  and the UK started  dreadfully and painfully slowly getting to grips with things but officially way ahead in declaring deaths then the others.

 

What are you going on about ?

I  don't care how you want to measure the 'deaths' - I prefer excess deaths as per many others as it removes all these counting ambiguities - and even then not absolute but percentages or standard scores.

Either way the UK comes out as one of, it not the worst in Europe, without any obvious excuses - it had weeks of warning on Italy and Spain for instance but due to to dithering and delay squandered the chance to get ahead of the curve. We are all paying the price.

Whereas I had little faith in Johnson before Covid given his loose grip on reality and facts as opposed to spin - even I could not of foreseen, could not of imagined how inept, how poorly led, how simply grossly incompetent this government would turn out to be in a real crisis. 

Edited June 2, 2020 by Yellow Fever
Look at https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441

[Aggy 747]

11 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

 

What are you going on about ?

I  don't care how you want to measure the 'deaths' - I prefer excess deaths as per many others as it removes all these counting ambiguities - and even then not absolute but percentages or standard scores.

Either way the UK comes out as one of, it not the worst in Europe, without any obvious excuses - it had weeks of warning on Italy and Spain for instance but due to to dithering and delay squandered the chance to get ahead of the curve. We are all paying the price.

Whereas I had little faith in Johnson before Covid given his loose grip on reality and facts as opposed to spin - even I could not of foreseen, could not of imagined how inept, how poorly led, how simply grossly incompetent this government would turn out to be in a real crisis. 

How do other countries in Europe measure their figures? I think that was the point being made. I don’t know the answer.
 

But if they aren’t including people that we would include, or aren’t carrying out tests on certain people, or alternatively are including deaths that we aren’t including,  the stats would be different one way or another. 

[Yellow Fever 3,733]

2 minutes ago, Aggy said:

How do other countries in Europe measure their figures? I think that was the point being made. I don’t know the answer.
 

But if they aren’t including people that we would include, or aren’t carrying out tests on certain people, or alternatively are including deaths that we aren’t including,  the stats would be different one way or another. 

Excess Deaths. As per my answer. Frankly this has long been answered as in any 'league' table. Yes it could change with a 2nd wave etc. but it plainly obvious that we are in the relegation spots if not bottom as to 'competence'.

 

[Pugin 601]

The thing that annoys me most is when Boris Johnson and his team go into sheer Trump mode and talk about testing, for example, which is 'world-leading' or 'best in the world'. Tone it down, fella. It doesn't wash! The medical experts never boast in this way, and they have much to boast about. 

(Sad thing is, it probably does wash with large swathes of the electorate, which is why copying Trump makes political sense, God help us). 

Edited June 2, 2020 by Pugin

[sonyc 5,482]

9 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Excess Deaths. As per my answer. Frankly this has long been answered as in any 'league' table. Yes it could change with a 2nd wave etc. but it plainly obvious that we are in the relegation spots if not bottom as to 'competence'.

 

Not sure we will have a second wave because it looks like we are lengthening the first wave!

[Bill 1,788]

17 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Whereas I had little faith in Johnson before Covid given his loose grip on reality and facts as opposed to spin - even I could not of foreseen, could not of imagined how inept, how poorly led, how simply grossly incompetent this government would turn out to be in a real crisis. 

A cursory glance at his  record as an MP, Mayor and Foreign Secretary should have suggested how things would be

Someone better as Ronald MacDonald outside the restaurant, than the manager inside..... or even a burger flipper.

You don't have a string of failures all your adult life, then suddenly change - so don't say you weren't warned

 

[Yellow Fever 3,733]

15 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Not sure we will have a second wave because it looks like we are lengthening the first wave!

I tend to agree - a true '2nd' wave assumes you lose control again - (anything is possible with this government) but I would expect odd flare ups quckly nipped in the bud as per S.Korea. 

Edited June 2, 2020 by Yellow Fever

[sonyc 5,482]

12 hours ago, Van wink said:

Not sure, I was initially very worried and critical of the latest easing of lockdown but Jenny gave a pretty good explanation of how the likelyhood of meeting an infected person is now considerably lower than before and Van Tan ( or Jenny ) was very clear on the current knowledge about outdoor transmission, and the reduced risk. Most of the easing relates to outdoor activity so I can follow the logic there. Also as far as little ones are concerned the risk is also low, but I am concerned about their ability to transmit to adults, but again Van Tan offered reasoned assurances on that.

As for parliament, that is indoors and and many members would be in vulnerable groups. 

You would hope we will not have a second wave because there have been no big outbreaks anywhere else in the world (post respective relaxation from lockdowns). We may have seen isolated pockets reported but those have been in double figures. 

I am more confident than at any time that it is dying away. And as such, overall, I'm supportive of the government's relaxation at present. It's not been often I've felt like that but I believe they're judging it about right. 

However, 'no complacency' has to be the guiding  principle as there's a lot we don't yet know about C19.

[sonyc 5,482]

1 minute ago, Yellow Fever said:

I tend to agree - a true '2nd' wave assumes you lose control again - (anything is possible with this government) but I would expect odd flare ups quckly nippe in the bud as per S.Korea. 

Just said the same thing (but longer to VW) !

Yet I'm unconvinced about how good our track and trace really is to nip in the bud.

As for 'world class' track and trace perhaps it can be used to find our PM. He seems to be invisible yet again.

Edited June 2, 2020 by sonyc

[Pugin 601]

23 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Not sure we will have a second wave because it looks like we are lengthening the first wave!

Yep, a Darwinian wave is sweeping through our care homes, that's for sure. And I am not being flippant. 

I worry about October / November. By that time public compliance will be eroded and the virus will have greater longevity, and secondly a lot of people will be grouped together indoors (whether allowed or not) with little ventilation. However, it is likely to be more a ripple than a wave. 

Edited June 2, 2020 by Pugin

[sonyc 5,482]

3 minutes ago, Pugin said:

Yep, a Darwinian wave is sweeping through our care homes, that's for sure. And I am not being flippant. 

I worry about October / November. By that time public compliance will be eroded and the virus will have greater longevity, and secondly a lot of people will be grouped together indoors (whether allowed or not) with little ventilation. However, it is likely to be more a ripple than a wave. 

I read that there remains considerable worry amongst care home managers, which is understandable, yet you would have thought that systems, PPE, processes surely will now be firmly in place?

[Pugin 601]

1 minute ago, sonyc said:

I read that there remains considerable worry amongst care home managers, which is understandable, yet you would have thought that systems, PPE, processes surely will now be firmly in place?

Hope so, but have you seen many Care Homes that don't have a notice outside announcing that they have vacancies for staff? They struggle to recruit and have poorly paid and inexperienced staff alongside the excellent people. The current zeitgeist must make it immeasurably worse.

And can you imagine how the auditory body that checks compliance will be coping at the moment? They won't be queueing up to roll up their sleeves and audit the worst Care Homes, warts and all?

I am not pointing towards the majority of Care Homes, but the bottom 10% have long been very poor on compliance.

I'm not really a miserable git, it's more a question of posing a counter-argument. And I have heard so many horror stories.

[Bill 1,788]

I doubt anyone will be too shocked to read what has just be released

 

"The government’s use of figures on coronavirus testing “falls well short” of normal standards, the UK’s chief statistician has said, warning: “The aim seems to be to show the largest possible number of tests, even at the expense of understanding.”

In a scathing letter to health secretary Matt Hancock, UK Statistics Authority chair Sir David Norgrove said it was “hard to believe” that the way the numbers are analysed and presented helped support the testing programme.

And he said it was “not surprising” that the figures relied upon by Mr Hancock to bolster his claim of meeting high-profile testing targets were “so widely criticised and often mistrusted”."