Corona Virus main thread

[Mark .Y. 352]

9 hours ago, Surfer said:

The number of tests is not very relevant IMO. Here in California we have ramped up to only 30,000 test results per day for a population of 40 million. Despite significant interaction with Asian countries we still have < 4,000 deaths. 

Why is the outcome so different for the UK? Is it population density/ climate/ different viral strain/ underlying health of the population? And what practical outcomes do the tests deliver?

I fear “ramp up the tests” has become the new “protect the NHS” - both needed to be done but neither of them are core issues to focus on. 

Those are - what did we learn, what are we going to do next, what do we want the public to do, how do we repair our economy and public and private finances? 

Government - any ideas on that? 

Yes, finally somebody who agrees with me that the testing isn't the be all and end all 🙂

On the rest of your points, Surfer, I think the first thing to do is to ensure all care homes and staff etc are properly ring-fenced and protected. I think NHS hospitals probably are now, so that just continues. I think the learnings should come out of properly conducted cross-party investigations/reviews once we are properly through it.

The only way to repair the economy is to get people back to work as soon as possible, nothing else will help more in the short term.

As for the longer term and repairing the finances - I really don't know, I'm afraid I don't have the financial expertise to answer, or even suggest anything. The one thing I would say is that there are numerous countries in the world in exactly the same position - and although instinctively that feels like a bad thing, maybe it isn't ??

[Van wink 2,994]

10 hours ago, Surfer said:

The number of tests is not very relevant IMO. Here in California we have ramped up to only 30,000 test results per day for a population of 40 million. Despite significant interaction with Asian countries we still have < 4,000 deaths. 

Why is the outcome so different for the UK? Is it population density/ climate/ different viral strain/ underlying health of the population? And what practical outcomes do the tests deliver?

I fear “ramp up the tests” has become the new “protect the NHS” - both needed to be done but neither of them are core issues to focus on. 

Those are - what did we learn, what are we going to do next, what do we want the public to do, how do we repair our economy and public and private finances? 

Government - any ideas on that? 

The big question, and we dont know the answer.

From my visits to California my impression is that generally people have a fairly active lifestyle  and I suspect that the general level of health within the population is better than in the UK. I appreciate thats a gross generalisation and that for example there will be massive areas of deprivation in LA for example but speaking in general terms. The unhealthy ones I've seen at the theme parks though, I remember the first time I went to the theme parks there, early 1980's was the first time I had seen people who seemed to have an extra stomach folded beneath the traditional one, now of course in the UK the extra belly seems to be quite common.

I do think that this issue of general health of the community will prove to be significant as we suffer the consequences of the UK population failing to look after its own health, maybe an attitude which allows self indulgence in the knowledge that when ill health strikes the NHS will sort it out. We have lost focus on personal health responsibility and become over dependant on the NHS to treat us when we become ill as a result. Its rather perverse.

[sonyc 5,519]

32 minutes ago, Van wink said:

The big question, and we dont know the answer.

From my visits to California my impression is that generally people have a fairly active lifestyle  and I suspect that the general level of health within the population is better than in the UK. I appreciate thats a gross generalisation and that for example there will be massive areas of deprivation in LA for example but speaking in general terms. The unhealthy ones I've seen at the theme parks though, I remember the first time I went to the theme parks there, early 1980's was the first time I had seen people who seemed to have an extra stomach folded beneath the traditional one, now of course in the UK the extra belly seems to be quite common.

I do think that this issue of general health of the community will prove to be significant as we suffer the consequences of the UK population failing to look after its own health, maybe an attitude which allows self indulgence in the knowledge that when ill health strikes the NHS will sort it out. We have lost focus on personal health responsibility and become over dependant on the NHS to treat us when we become ill as a result. Its rather perverse.

Interesting take. And more so that in the last decade in particular, there has been a glut of self help books on keeping fit, on improving diets, supported by numerous TV programmes. Yet, one gets the sense that the nation is getting fatter / less active. In lockdown, we've seen more people on our daily dog walks than ever and it's clear they've rarely been out much! All anecdotal, but may support your drift.

Watching Euro Having A Laugh last night, it's also clear weight affects ex footballers. I was shocked at their weight (kg's). And I know from personal experience that staying at the same weight is a daily, weekly battle of calories in, calories out. It demands sacrifice and discipline. Further, you have to monitor. You can eat what you want when you want, such is availability.  An extra coffee and cake and that is sometimes 20% of your daily calorific suggested total. 

I am unsure what is the biggest factor for the difference in numbers. Air quality was one line of thought a while back and blood stickiness another (which may support the underlying health line of thought, or could be linked). It cannot all be put down to mismanagement (care homes exposure) though such exposure may be another obvious factor.

I would be more confident in suggesting though when all data is collated, that it will have adversely affected those in comparative poverty. In other words the outcomes will have been influenced by multiple factors, many of which are related to disadvantage. As an example, who would have thought that just because you live in council accommodation (depending on which part of the country you live) your life expectancy is 7.5 years less. Always felt this was a shocking stat. 

More analysis will emerge quite soon I'm sure as this wave passes through.

 

Edited May 21, 2020 by sonyc

[BigFish 1,987]

2 hours ago, Mark .Y. said:

 

I think the first thing to do is to ensure all care homes and staff etc are properly ring-fenced and protected. I think NHS hospitals probably are now, so that just continues.

From people I know in the NHS there is no ring-fence around (at least the non-c19 areas) hospitals. Just social distancing and isolation of suspected cases inside.

[BigFish 1,987]

Johnson fell into two traps yesterday in PMQs. Firstly, he made another firm committment. To have track trace and isolate in place by June 1. Already, two weeks behind schedule will this be another "stretch target" like the Hancock hundred thousand tests that the government claimed to have made. A claim that fell apart as soon as the figures were examined.

The other he is unable to lie his way out of. After inflating the cost of the NHS surcharge on foreign carers by a factor of 20 for whatever reason he doubled down to say it was too expensive to remove. Now Starmer is going lay an amendment to the Immigration Bill to support foreign carers will the Tories really vote to keep charging carers or will they back down and admit this is wrong?

[Mark .Y. 352]

23 minutes ago, BigFish said:

From people I know in the NHS there is no ring-fence around (at least the non-c19 areas) hospitals. Just social distancing and isolation of suspected cases inside.

Yes, I didn't kind of mean ring fencing within the hospitals, I just meant that they are probably well sorted out now and have good control of their operation. My sister-in-law works in the "super hospital" in Portsmouth (Queen Alexandras) and she is much more comfortable than she was during the earlier days.

[Trevor Hockey's Beard 527]

33 minutes ago, BigFish said:

Johnson fell into two traps yesterday in PMQs. Firstly, he made another firm committment. To have track trace and isolate in place by June 1. Already, two weeks behind schedule will this be another "stretch target" like the Hancock hundred thousand tests that the government claimed to have made. A claim that fell apart as soon as the figures were examined.

The other he is unable to lie his way out of. After inflating the cost of the NHS surcharge on foreign carers by a factor of 20 for whatever reason he doubled down to say it was too expensive to remove. Now Starmer is going lay an amendment to the Immigration Bill to support foreign carers will the Tories really vote to keep charging carers or will they back down and admit this is wrong?

Yesterday's PMQs were a joy to watch. It was like watching one of our cats playing with a mouse. It is now obvious why the Tories want MPs back in Parliament for the 1st June, because without all the other donkeys to bray and snort Johnson looks and sounds very weak and untrustworthy.

Hancock also looked very frightened. He has probably done his best, but unfortunately that wasn't very good. The two of them have dug themselves into such a hole over the Care Home crisis that I don't think they'll be able to get out of it. The fact remains, despite Johnson's wiggling, that patients were discharged from hospitals into Care Homes without having been tested. I also remember hearing that Care Homes were being discouraged from sending residents to hospital, thereby denying these vulnerable people access to the best care, and forcing Care Homes to nurse these residents when they are not trained, or probably insured, to do so.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

The big question, and we dont know the answer.

From my visits to California my impression is that generally people have a fairly active lifestyle  and I suspect that the general level of health within the population is better than in the UK. I appreciate thats a gross generalisation and that for example there will be massive areas of deprivation in LA for example but speaking in general terms. The unhealthy ones I've seen at the theme parks though, I remember the first time I went to the theme parks there, early 1980's was the first time I had seen people who seemed to have an extra stomach folded beneath the traditional one, now of course in the UK the extra belly seems to be quite common.

I do think that this issue of general health of the community will prove to be significant as we suffer the consequences of the UK population failing to look after its own health, maybe an attitude which allows self indulgence in the knowledge that when ill health strikes the NHS will sort it out. We have lost focus on personal health responsibility and become over dependant on the NHS to treat us when we become ill as a result. Its rather perverse.

I think one of the reasons for outdoor activity is just the climate. I was talking to someone from Lithuania originally and they said the UK was in the worst position geographically. In her home country, they had definite seasons. But the UK could be warm at Christmas and snowing in May. And it is relevant to its position on the globe. 

And the type of activity seems dependent on location as well.

 

[Bagster 101]

Things that I've noticed since I've lived in France.

Immigration to the UK has been very noticeable in comparison to where I'm from.

British people are FAT , no excuses, they have allowed fat to become acceptable, it's not!! Never used to be like that.

If the French shut the borders and food couldn't get in,it would not be a problem for at least 6 months!!!

When they sing "who ate all the pies" it's BL oo Dy obvious that they did!

Go on a diet FFS😉

[Barbe bleu 826]

4 hours ago, Mark .Y. said:

Yes, finally somebody who agrees with me that the testing isn't the be all and end all 🙂

Probably agree with you that during lockdown mass testing is not hugely important. Helpful, yes but not massively essential.

As we ease it will grow in importance but distraction threatens to rear its head again.  If the focus is on pure numbers (and I'm looking at both sides here) then we've lost sight of 2/3 of 'test, trace, isloate'.  

Bit controversial but I wonder if there is value in binning the likes of PMQs and all its theatre right  now and replacing it with a bespoke committee where professionals get to ask questions. That way we get to the important, and forward facing, issues and don't bother with the silly things like if a postal test counts when it is put in the post, the day after or the day it comes back.

[Icecream Snow 761]

Graph from the BBC, haven't seen it explained in this level of detail before.

[sonyc 5,519]

32 minutes ago, Bagster said:

Things that I've noticed since I've lived in France.

Immigration to the UK has been very noticeable in comparison to where I'm from.

British people are FAT , no excuses, they have allowed fat to become acceptable, it's not!! Never used to be like that.

If the French shut the borders and food couldn't get in,it would not be a problem for at least 6 months!!!

When they sing "who ate all the pies" it's BL oo Dy obvious that they did!

Go on a diet FFS😉

France is mostly self-sufficient in terms of food and their buying behaviour is encouraged by media campaigns (like Mangez Français). Also meals are more an occasion and less about simple re-fuelling. Yet, it's changing. In rural France though, you'll rarely see an obese person.

[sonyc 5,519]

11 minutes ago, Icecream Snow said:

Graph from the BBC, haven't seen it explained in this level of detail before.

Yes, they've started to do these now.  The last one links to those excess death graphs posted on here, which is the so called 'gold standard' by which you can measure all countries, because it is a simple count of everyone who has died, whether C19 is in the certificate or not. The BBC has some decent data and analyses.

[Well b back 3,207]

Morning all.

For those that follow it I have just updated the Come on Sarah thread with what looks like positive news ie the US have just given AstraZeneca a billion dollars to produce the Oxford vaccine. What do they all know that they are not telling us ?

[Well b back 3,207]

3 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Yes, they've started to do these now.  The last one links to those excess death graphs posted on here, which is the so called 'gold standard' by which you can measure all countries, because it is a simple count of everyone who has died, whether C19 is in the certificate or not. The BBC has some decent data and analyses.

And don’t forget this is a year when flu ( normally amongst one of the biggest U.K. killers ) was very limited.

[sonyc 5,519]

Just now, Well b back said:

And don’t forget this is a year when flu ( normally amongst one of the biggest U.K. killers ) was very limited.

Yes, and apparently, 'we' are overdue a flu outbreak I was reading because we have had a few fallow years!

[Barbe bleu 826]

20 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Yes, they've started to do these now.  The last one links to those excess death graphs posted on here, which is the so called 'gold standard' by which you can measure all countries, because it is a simple count of everyone who has died, whether C19 is in the certificate or not. The BBC has some decent data and analyses.

I think all have strengths and weaknesses.    The truth is probably somewhere in the middle as it always is

 

[Barbe bleu 826]

35 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Yes, and apparently, 'we' are overdue a flu outbreak I was reading because we have had a few fallow years!

Yes, it seems this year's flu was mild. Lets hope it's not terrible come autumn

 

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

More are having the jab. I had one for the first time last November,

[sgncfc 1,228]

13 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

I don't know about that. We have probably got enough ventilators, gowns, face masks and tests now.

And all the while these were being  debates in angry terms no one thought to stop agency care workers go from care home to care home

 

 

 

No, it's just that the press have moved on, as you yourself said. My sister in law is a nurse and only this morning her department received a delivery of scrubs from a West End theatre's costume department as they had run out. According to her, many hospitals and care homes still have very limited PPE, it's just that no one cares anymore because the numbers in hospital are reducing.

[wcorkcanary 4,334]

My son was In N   Italy during the height of their crisis, he then moved to Cap Ferrat  S of France since mid march and luckily has been fine. He phoned me yesterday  to say he's  got Mumps!!!! He has not been out and has worked every day  isolated ,either on the yacht or at the villa since Early March....the only person he knows of  that has had Mumps  recently is a friend of his....in Australia....work that one out. Hes now under the Doctor and is booked into an air Bnb to rest and get over the illness. Mumps though, WT actual F?

[BigFish 1,987]

2 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

Probably agree with you that during lockdown mass testing is not hugely important. Helpful, yes but not massively essential.

As we ease it will grow in importance but distraction threatens to rear its head again.  If the focus is on pure numbers (and I'm looking at both sides here) then we've lost sight of 2/3 of 'test, trace, isloate'.  

Bit controversial but I wonder if there is value in binning the likes of PMQs and all its theatre right  now and replacing it with a bespoke committee where professionals get to ask questions. That way we get to the important, and forward facing, issues and don't bother with the silly things like if a postal test counts when it is put in the post, the day after or the day it comes back.

We already have select committees to address this. The only people who want PMQs stopped are the Boris fanboys tired of the hero being shown up as a liar and an idiot every week

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Boris the Idiot wanted to be PM. He succeeded in railroading dumb Corbyn into an election. The Withdrawal Act is enshrined. And that was as far as his imagination ha got him.

Personally, apart from ability, I cannot believe he should be in charge so soon after recovering from the virus. And because of his ego, he didn't let it go and now as a consequence, all the lying, miscalculations are biting him.

[Trevor Hockey's Beard 527]

Someone was telling me their conspiracy theory about why the government is set on developing their own "track and trace" system.

It centred on the idea that the government's chosen route would provide them with huge quantities of data on everyone with a smartphone, while the easier and cheaper Apple and Google system, which would be easy to set up, fails to allow the government to harvest data on individuals.

Has anyone else heard this version of events?

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

This has been mooted THB. I cannot believe that the people who develop what is in effect spyware "for a good reason" haven't mentioned or been asked by someone like Cummings, what else it can do.

[Van wink 2,994]

1 hour ago, wcorkcanary said:

My son was In N   Italy during the height of their crisis, he then moved to Cap Ferrat  S of France since mid march and luckily has been fine. He phoned me yesterday  to say he's  got Mumps!!!! He has not been out and has worked every day  isolated ,either on the yacht or at the villa since Early March....the only person he knows of  that has had Mumps  recently is a friend of his....in Australia....work that one out. Hes now under the Doctor and is booked into an air Bnb to rest and get over the illness. Mumps though, WT actual F?

Nasty disease for an adult, I hope he is looking after himself

[sonyc 5,519]

This is getting a bit nasty...

Germany braced for more protests against coronavirus policies

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/21/germany-braced-for-more-protests-against-coronavirus-polices?

 

[Van wink 2,994]

5 minutes ago, sonyc said:

This is getting a bit nasty...

Germany braced for more protests against coronavirus policies

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/21/germany-braced-for-more-protests-against-coronavirus-polices?

 

Yep, hope T doesn’t get caught up in any of this stuff!

[sonyc 5,519]

It's thousands (!) of protesters expected.

[Barbe bleu 826]

1 hour ago, BigFish said:

We already have select committees to address this. The only people who want PMQs stopped are the Boris fanboys tired of the hero being shown up as a liar and an idiot every week

PMQs is a pantomime

It's ok during normal events but it's very superficial. The government should be focused on what is important and not what will play well at the theatre.

Challenge is important but I'm increasingly of the opinion that the challenges and the reaction to them are not where the focus should be.

We spent days on the saga of gowns from turkey yet there is no evidence (as far as I know) of anyone getting  seriously ill because they lacked a gown.  Then it was the 100,000 and huge importance was attached to whether or not the government reached an entirely arbitrary mumber. If the government spent less time on that sort of nonsense and  more on infection control in the community we might be in a better state now.

Bin off PMQs and film a committee meeting instead.  It will provide strong challenge but in a focused manner.  I'd also have practitioners heavily involved.

The bear  baiting can come later.