Corona Virus main thread

[Barbe bleu 822]

1 hour ago, BigFish said:

This post looks rather foolish now, faster than anyone could have thought possible.

This is a perfect example of why PMQs are important and why traps are necessary to improve policy. 

My opinion still stands. The pruproty now is to stop people dying. I dont think that PMQs helps us do this.

If a policy is bad it can be shown to be bad under any form of scrutiny.  It shouldnt take the Yaboo of 30 minutes a week to do it.  Most countries seem to cope without the bear pit .

[Barbe bleu 822]

50 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

For each bit of good news, something or someone seems to spoil it. But I am upbeat believe me. Lots of sunshine as you say. And the rain for usis overnight so its golf again in the morning.

Of course we take our choices with experts. But the threat of a second wave is not exactly being dismissed fervently.

Move to london.  17%+ infection rate means any second peak is likely to be much lower!

[sonyc 5,510]

Retired doctors have pointed out how the contact tracing system will face considerable difficulty... especially as care and NHS staff in the first wave / instance were C19 vectors.

This is going to be a challenge to operationalise.

 

UK's first coronavirus contact-tracing group warns of difficulties

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/21/uk-first-coronavirus-contact-tracing-group-warns-of-difficulties?

[PurpleCanary 5,557]

1 hour ago, Mark .Y. said:

Seriously KG, cheer up - you'll do yourself in  🙂

For every expert that says there willl be a second wave, there is one who says there won't be.

I've read lots of stuff about people who have definitely had the virus but no antibodies are showing, and there are reasons why this could easily happen and doesn't mean that they have not gained immunity - though how long that would last, I don't think anybody knows.

But hey, it's been a lovely day here, and I'm sure it has been down in your neck of the woods, so look on the bright side  🙂

 

Possibly, but I am making my plans for the rest of the year on the assumption there will be at least one other wave in 2020.

[Monty13 2,231]

1 hour ago, Bill said:

"Earlier Boris Johnson had praised Mr Hancock, as he told the Commons the UK is now testing more “than virtually any country in Europe”.

Tests per 1 million population 20th May 2020

Iceland 169,003

Lithuania 90,080

Denmark 84,765

Portugal 66,079

Spain 64,977

Belgium 62,175 I

Ireland 59,949 I

Italy 51,338

Austria 42,175

Switzerland 41,099

UK 40,866

Norway 40,615

Or if you prefer the actual number of tests

Russia 7,578,029

Germany 3,147,771

Italy 3,104,524

Spain 3,037,840

UK 2,772,552

Put simply Johnson lies, as he always has done. Only now the scrutiny is tighter

So what’s the number of tests per day for each European country? 

Because while I’ve no real interest in getting involved in your boring political grandstanding, it does amuse me that neither of your figures refutes his actual claim.

I mean you may be right but this isn’t evidence.

Edited May 21, 2020 by Monty13

[Bill 1,788]

24 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

My opinion still stands. The pruproty now is to stop people dying. I dont think that PMQs helps us do this.

If a policy is bad it can be shown to be bad under any form of scrutiny.  It shouldnt take the Yaboo of 30 minutes a week to do it.  Most countries seem to cope without the bear pit .

And is still nonsense. Almost every part of Parliament could therefore be considered not part of stopping people from dying.

As a Tory apologist (whatever name you post under) your weasel words have never amounted to anything more than that.

And I suspect you have almost no knowledge of how 'Most countries ' country's Parliaments work either.

Yours is merely to try to distract from the incompetence of a third rate cabinet, led by a fifth rate variety act,

[Terminally Yellow 2,448]

9 minutes ago, Monty13 said:

So what’s the number of tests per day for each European country? 

Because while I’ve no real interest in getting involved in your boring political grandstanding, it does amuse me that neither of your figures refutes his actual claim.

I mean you may be right but this isn’t evidence.

Expecting a rational, evidenced argument from Bill is a bit like expecting to win the lottery.

Yes it might happen, but I wouldn't be holding your breath.

[Barbe bleu 822]

20 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Retired doctors have pointed out how the contact tracing system will face considerable difficulty... especially as care and NHS staff in the first wave / instance were C19 vectors.

This is going to be a challenge to operationalise.

 

UK's first coronavirus contact-tracing group warns of difficulties

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/21/uk-first-coronavirus-contact-tracing-group-warns-of-difficulties?

Thanks for this. 

Not surprising in retrospect and might actual be good news if the main vector is an identified group rather than the world at large.

It shouldn't be too difficult to isolate a care home resident but so the weak link was always going to be the carer doing from resident to resident and home to home.

I cant blame the carers though. It must be so hard not to do your job at a critical time and especially when you care being applauded as a hero every week and I guess that everyone thinks of themselves as the exception.

 

[Barbe bleu 822]

17 minutes ago, Monty13 said:

So what’s the number of tests per day for each European country? 

Because while I’ve no real interest in getting involved in your boring political grandstanding, it does amuse me that neither of your figures refutes his actual claim.

I mean you may be right but this isn’t evidence.

What does it matter where we are in the European league table?  Do we get promoted to the Americas if we win?

The important questions is are we doing enough tests, to the right people, in the right way to meet our needs and then doing something appropriate with the results. If the answer is yes then good luck to Russia for being the Euro champs.

 

Edited May 21, 2020 by Barbe bleu

[Monty13 2,231]

Just now, Barbe bleu said:

What does it matter where we are in the European league table?  Do we get promoted to the Americas is we win?

The important questionis are we doing enough tests, to the right people and in the right way to meet our needs.  If the answer is yes then good luck to Russia for being the Euro champs.

I mean ask the PM, he’s the one who brought it up.

[Barbe bleu 822]

1 minute ago, Monty13 said:

I mean ask the PM, he’s the one who brought it up.

There is too much politics by everyone on this.  

We are making important what we can measure whereas we need to find ways of measuring what is actually important

I believe that the government is wasting time and effort on the unimportant because it makes a political point or saves face.  I also believe that the are people out there that positively welcome bad new because it makes boris look bad and concentrate the government's minds on the wrong things.

 

[Monty13 2,231]

2 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

There is too much politics by everyone on this.  

We are making important what we can measure whereas we need to find ways of measuring what is actually important

I believe that the government is wasting time and effort on the unimportant because it makes a political point or saves face.  I also believe that the are people out there that positively welcome bad new because it makes boris look bad and concentrate the government's minds on the wrong things.

 

Ok? I’m really not sure what you are trying to argue with me about? I was just poking fun at Bill’s creative accounting.

Edited May 21, 2020 by Monty13

[sonyc 5,510]

18 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Thanks for this. 

Not surprising in retrospect and might actual be good news if the main vector is an identified group rather than the world at large.

It shouldn't be too difficult to isolate a care home resident but so the weak link was always going to be the carer doing from resident to resident and home to home.

I cant blame the carers though. It must be so hard not to do your job at a critical time and especially when you care being applauded as a hero every week and I guess that everyone thinks of themselves as the exception.

 

I think that carers will have been worried about losing their wages (lots of local stories where I live on TV...frightened of being off early days) so they ploughed on. Also, no testing was in place in the first swell of cases.

The main point in that article was the problem in not being able to force people to stay off work. Imagine that was so frustrating for the tracers (ex-doctors in the article).

Edited May 21, 2020 by sonyc

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

30 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

My opinion still stands. The pruproty now is to stop people dying. I dont think that PMQs helps us do this.

If a policy is bad it can be shown to be bad under any form of scrutiny.  It shouldnt take the Yaboo of 30 minutes a week to do it.  Most countries seem to cope without the bear pit .

Of course they do, but most countries, especially other European countries, do some other pretty important things differently which render the bear pit unnecessary. For instance they nearly all have a written constitution, an elected Head of State and more open and accountable democracies with Parliaments elected under much fairer systems than our ridiculous FPTP system. This of course frequently results in coalition governments, i.e. co-operation between several political parties in contrast to the binary and adversarial politics we have in this country. Coincidentally, or perhaps not, in many cases this also extends into their legal systems which use an inquistorial approach rather than the adversarial approach in the UK.

So unfortunately in our country it is essential, and if you still don't see the importance of it after the several very clear examples in recent weeks I would suggest that it is because you are anxious for this government to avoid scrutiny (as indeed is the government itself!).

To say 'If a policy is bad it can be shown to be bad under any form of scrutiny' is frankly ridiculous if a government controls those scrutinising it - as Bigfish said earlier, just where is the Russia report??? In the UK system the PM having to answer questions from the floor of the House is the only effective scrutiny there is - very imperfect it may be but its better than nothing at all.

[Barbe bleu 822]

1 minute ago, Monty13 said:

Ok? I’m really not sure what you are trying to argue with me about? I was just poking fun at Bill’s creative accounting.

I'm  not arguing with you at all. 

I'm making  a more general point that this league table stuff is nonsense.  Just happened to be on the  back of your calling out bill.

[Barbe bleu 822]

11 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

In the UK system the PM having to answer questions from the floor of the House is the only effective scrutiny there is 

If PMQs really is the best scrutiny of a highly technical matter where there can be no argumemt as to the desired end state (no disease, minimum deaths) then god help us.

I'm not quite arguing against PMQs in general but if it involves equations it probably isnt best dealt with by Buttons and Widow Twanky (or worse or by wily coyote and road runner spending all their time setting and avoiding traps), no matter how much law or latin they were taught at school.

 

[ricardo 7,384]

https://unherd.com/2020/05/oxford-doubles-down-sunetra-gupta-interview/

I will just throw this in again because nobody seems to have realised the implications if she is right.

[Barbe bleu 822]

12 minutes ago, ricardo said:

https://unherd.com/2020/05/oxford-doubles-down-sunetra-gupta-interview/

I will just throw this in again because nobody seems to have realised the implications if she is right.

The implication is that we have destroyed the economy for no reason!

But we've all spent time getting a nice tan,  appreciating the important and simple things in life and have had time to reflect on what is important and what is not.

[sonyc 5,510]

12 minutes ago, ricardo said:

https://unherd.com/2020/05/oxford-doubles-down-sunetra-gupta-interview/

I will just throw this in again because nobody seems to have realised the implications if she is right.

Yes, it has been discussed here on and off (virus could be fading out) and the Starkey interview put up by @ron obvious was interesting as an adjunct to this article. Lots of commentators have asked too haven't they whether we have locked down too hard to the detriment of the economy and everyday life, plus too strong a focus on the NHS but not the care sector (which in retrospect should have been wrapped in wool). Interesting article.

[sonyc 5,510]

7 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

Boris the Idiot wanted to be PM. He succeeded in railroading dumb Corbyn into an election. The Withdrawal Act is enshrined. And that was as far as his imagination ha got him.

Personally, apart from ability, I cannot believe he should be in charge so soon after recovering from the virus. And because of his ego, he didn't let it go and now as a consequence, all the lying, miscalculations are biting him.

One thing about Sturgeon, whatever people think of her, is that she doesn't miss any press briefings. She is always there, fronting up. Not our PM (who I read is now about to take a 10 day Whitsun break)

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

12 minutes ago, ricardo said:

I will just throw this in again because nobody seems to have realised the implications if she is right.

Not sure why you say that as the implications of what she is saying seem pretty obvious.

I suspect the general lack of interest revolves around the rather large 'if' in your remark.

[ricardo 7,384]

19 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Not sure why you say that as the implications of what she is saying seem pretty obvious.

I suspect the general lack of interest revolves around the rather large 'if' in your remark.

I guess we will soon find out the value of the if.

[Aggy 754]

14 hours ago, Van wink said:

The big question, and we dont know the answer.

From my visits to California my impression is that generally people have a fairly active lifestyle  and I suspect that the general level of health within the population is better than in the UK. I appreciate thats a gross generalisation and that for example there will be massive areas of deprivation in LA for example but speaking in general terms. The unhealthy ones I've seen at the theme parks though, I remember the first time I went to the theme parks there, early 1980's was the first time I had seen people who seemed to have an extra stomach folded beneath the traditional one, now of course in the UK the extra belly seems to be quite common.

I do think that this issue of general health of the community will prove to be significant as we suffer the consequences of the UK population failing to look after its own health, maybe an attitude which allows self indulgence in the knowledge that when ill health strikes the NHS will sort it out. We have lost focus on personal health responsibility and become over dependant on the NHS to treat us when we become ill as a result. Its rather perverse.

I suppose it depends on what the “underlying health conditions” are. If the average person dying is in their 80s, chances are that lots will have underlying health conditions which aren’t as a result solely of obesity or lack of fitness. Compromised immune systems from cancers and the like again put you at higher risk from coronavirus but aren’t necessarily related to obesity etc. Of course some cancers and even dementia / Alzheimer’s (which ONS reckons is the most common “underlying health condition” in coronavirus deaths) can be caused from “lifestyle”, but many are caused by other things.

 

10 hours ago, Icecream Snow said:

Graph from the BBC, haven't seen it explained in this level of detail before.

Apologies in advance if I’m missing something blindly obvious here, but why does the death certificate of 41,000 mention coronavirus if there have only be 35,000 deaths with a positive coronavirus test result? Is it just that there have been 6000 “guesses” that coronavirus was involved, or is the 35k figure referring to tests done only when alive?

[Aggy 754]

7 hours ago, sonyc said:

This is getting a bit nasty...

Germany braced for more protests against coronavirus policies

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/21/germany-braced-for-more-protests-against-coronavirus-polices?

 

Bit of a strange article. Suggests everyone going to these rallies are “radical extremists, conspiracy theorists, anti-vaxxers and antisemites” but then the only quote they provide is someone saying  ““Why should I be locked up in my own house when only 8,000 people have died of this virus? Meanwhile, the economy is dying, and my neighbour hasn’t been able to visit his wife in a care home for eight weeks. It’s criminal.” 
 

Now, the chap saying it might be a radical extremist or anitsemite as far as I know, but that quote seems like a fairly reasonable argument to make, made in a fairly reasonable manner.

[sonyc 5,510]

6 minutes ago, Aggy said:

Bit of a strange article. Suggests everyone going to these rallies are “radical extremists, conspiracy theorists, anti-vaxxers and antisemites” but then the only quote they provide is someone saying  ““Why should I be locked up in my own house when only 8,000 people have died of this virus? Meanwhile, the economy is dying, and my neighbour hasn’t been able to visit his wife in a care home for eight weeks. It’s criminal.” 
 

Now, the chap saying it might be a radical extremist or anitsemite as far as I know, but that quote seems like a fairly reasonable argument to make, made in a fairly reasonable manner.

It was a curious article, surprising as you say because of the low numbers and the anger being generated. It's just interesting how other countries respond. I was hoping T might add another some detail and intelligence about this.

Edited May 21, 2020 by sonyc

[Aggy 754]

 

6 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

Herd Immunity Types - Hmm

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/21/just-7-per-cent-of-stockholm-had-covid-19-antibodies-by-end-of-april-study-sweden-coronavirus

 

Stockholm 7.3 % !!!! (not 25%, 35% or anywhere near what they thought!

Sorry, what’s the point you’re making here? If they haven’t really imposed a lockdown and only 7 per cent of the population have caught it since their first confirmed case on 4th February, are you suggesting coronavirus isn’t as infectious as previously made out?

Edited May 21, 2020 by Aggy

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Just like the Ricky Gervais joke about Stephen Hawking thinking too much, academics in my opinion lack very little common sense and too often have a blackboard mentality.

Hers is a theory. A theory about a virus that no-one can actually say they understand and can anticipate.

John Cleese had a theory about the Brontosaurus of course and as comical and silly as it was, there was a portion of it that was correct.

If she is right then the politicians will blame the scientists. But it cannot be reversed and if she is wrong then the politicians can take the credit.

It has been a game changer no matter what and I for one hope if anything positive comes out of this it is people realising they have options in life and don't have to accept what we are given all the time.

[Aggy 754]

1 hour ago, Barbe bleu said:

The implication is that we have destroyed the economy for no reason!

But we've all spent time getting a nice tan,  appreciating the important and simple things in life and have had time to reflect on what is important and what is not.

I think if it transpires the infection fatality rate is anywhere near 0.01 per cent, there need to be some really very serious questions asked about why we legislated (and why any government is able to legislate) so quickly, using emergency powers where the elected parliament was not able to scrutinise or approve the legislation in advance, to make it an offence for people to leave their own home except in proscribed permitted circumstances - all based on numbers that transpire to be completely wrong. Guidance to stay home where possible, social distancing in shops as a precaution? Fine. Legislating to remove people’s liberty? Not so fine if your figures turn out to be so very wrong.

As it is, I expect the fatality rate will be higher than 0.01 per cent, so not going to get too excited about it just yet...

[Bill 1,788]

37 minutes ago, Aggy said:

Apologies in advance if I’m missing something blindly obvious here, but why does the death certificate of 41,000 mention coronavirus if there have only be 35,000 deaths with a positive coronavirus test result? Is it just that there have been 6000 “guesses” that coronavirus was involved, or is the 35k figure referring to tests done only when alive?

You've pretty much answered it yourself.

Without conclusive proof (a test) I don't think those signing the death certificate can state that "believed to......"

Some while back when researching the local war memorial name sit was necessary to get a copy of a death certificate of someone who had died, back in the village, in 1917. The medical term was related to infection of both lungs, with the codicil 'believed to have been the result of gassing (or words to that effect).

I'm not sure if it is possible to test a dead body, and with the limited tests I suspect deaths thought to be caused by Covid were simply listed as such

As an aside, for my part this number is horrific and other than the obvious understanding that it is fellow human beings the excess deaths could be 65,000 for all the difference it makes.

Was the bombing of Dresden any worse when the numbers were thought to be as high as it is now accepted ?

Deaths that will have affected hundreds and thousands of family and friends, who ,might wonder how much their loved one has been forgotten in the stampede to get to the beach

Odd times

 

[Mark .Y. 352]

10 hours ago, PurpleCanary said:

Possibly, but I am making my plans for the rest of the year on the assumption there will be at least one other wave in 2020.

Yes, well each to their own Purple, and nothing wrong with preparing for the worst in any case.

So far, as much as I can see, there have been no second waves in any country that has lifted restrictions. Of course, the vast majority still have social distancing etc in place so that may be what is actually suppressing any second wave (there have been local "hotspots" in many countries) - but it does give me cause for optimism.