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47 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Not slowing down quick enough if that makes sense.

Yes, I do know what you mean KG.

The fall in the announced deaths versus the same day of the previous week is consistently somewhere between 10 and 20%.

But, for sure, it feels slow going. For a bit of comparison, Spain announced between 102 and 217 deaths from the 9th to the 16th May inclusive. From the 17th to the 21st inclusive the daily number has been below 100, yesterday being a new low of 48.

(By the way, those figures are from the official Spanish Government website and as used on Spanish TV, worldometers website does not always seem to tie up with them for some reason) 

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54 minutes ago, Mark .Y. said:

Yes, I do know what you mean KG.

The fall in the announced deaths versus the same day of the previous week is consistently somewhere between 10 and 20%.

But, for sure, it feels slow going. For a bit of comparison, Spain announced between 102 and 217 deaths from the 9th to the 16th May inclusive. From the 17th to the 21st inclusive the daily number has been below 100, yesterday being a new low of 48.

(By the way, those figures are from the official Spanish Government website and as used on Spanish TV, worldometers website does not always seem to tie up with them for some reason) 

I would guess the rate of rise, and decay is simply a factor (almost by definition)  of how much the 'R' number (although it has no time dimension) is away from unity. Before the lockdown R >> 1 perhaps 2 or even 3. Now with our weak lockdown just under 1 so sloooowwww. Spain still has a stronger lockdown so much faster decay and R well under 1.

Edited by Yellow Fever
There is as Johnson seems ro be learning slowly - no free lunch. What a shocker for him.

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10 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I would guess the rate of rise, and decay is simply a factor (almost by definition)  of how much the 'R' number (although it has no time dimension) is away from unity. Before the lockdown R >> 1 perhaps 2 or even 3. Now with our weak lockdown just under 1 so sloooowwww. Spain still has a stronger lockdown so much faster decay and R well under 1.

oh dear

the R number is simply guess work, that is all

so pretty meaningless, but possible harmful as it is likely to cause the 'not too bright' to take actions that reflect that guess rather than known preventative action

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The full interview is very interesting.

Also another angle on the R number. More in agreement with Bill.

 

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Blll. Everybody sensible knows that the R number is just a metric - a shorthand way of giving an overall picture in a simple number of infection growth and decay for a region.

 
No more and no less.

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16 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I would guess the rate of rise, and decay is simply a factor (almost by definition)  of how much the 'R' number (although it has no time dimension) is away from unity. Before the lockdown R >> 1 perhaps 2 or even 3. Now with our weak lockdown just under 1 so sloooowwww. Spain still has a stronger lockdown so much faster decay and R well under 1.

I'm interested in why you think Spain still has a stronger lockdown than the UK, YF.

We have no bar or restaurant terraces open as they do. Groups of up to 10 people are permited to meet.

Madrid and Barcelona are the last two regions to be allowed to do this and they begin on Monday. At the same time the majority of the other regions will be able to open museums, art galleries cinemas etc (with restricted capacity) and some schools will go back.

They are pretty strict with their requirement to wear masks but I'd say they are ahead of us in all other aspects.

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1 minute ago, Mark .Y. said:

I'm interested in why you think Spain still has a stronger lockdown than the UK, YF.

We have no bar or restaurant terraces open as they do. Groups of up to 10 people are permited to meet.

Madrid and Barcelona are the last two regions to be allowed to do this and they begin on Monday. At the same time the majority of the other regions will be able to open museums, art galleries cinemas etc (with restricted capacity) and some schools will go back.

They are pretty strict with their requirement to wear masks but I'd say they are ahead of us in all other aspects.

Time lag on deaths.

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2 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Time lag on deaths.

Sorry, I don't understand what you mean.

You said Spain still has a stronger lockdown, that was the bit I was disagreeing with, and gave the reasons why.

Given those reasons, do you still think Spain still has a stronger lockdown than the UK ? 

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Just now, Mark .Y. said:

Sorry, I don't understand what you mean.

You said Spain still has a stronger lockdown, that was the bit I was disagreeing with, and gave the reasons why.

Given those reasons, do you still think Spain still has a stronger lockdown than the UK ? 

Sorry - the pevious comment was referring to 'deaths' - which general lag any 'infection' i.e. any R number or whatever by several weeks! 

Hence the current fast dropping deaths in Spain are really from infection best part of a month ago  - in their strict lockdown (and our weeker one) ! 

Give it another month to see where we are with deaths from lock downs of today.

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22 minutes ago, ricardo said:

The full interview is very interesting.

Also another angle on the R number. More in agreement with Bill.

 

It's interesting Ricardo - But it's a little dated as the serological data for the UK does indeed show 5% generally and 17% for London - where as the interviewer probes that make her theory more awkward and difficult to square.

Of course there will be higher true number and all sorts of 'other' effects at play - perhaps large numbers are immune anyway as she alighted upon prior CV-19.

Whatever you think it looks pretty infectious and deadly to me in the over 70s. If it had spread widely much earlier where is the excess deaths for these in January and February. They are not there.

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16 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Blll. Everybody sensible knows that the R number is just a metric - a shorthand way of giving an overall picture in a simple number of infection growth and decay for a region.

 
No more and no less.

No, that is just you making up stuff - as I would suggest that the overwhelming majority havn't a clue about how this buffoonery is arrived art

 a formula that has an unknown number of virus deaths factored into an unknown number of infections added to a unqualified number of tests that have no control to measure against, coupled with the same for hospital admissions

so

  • there is no measure of infection spread as there is no means of counting that
  • we cannot agree what the figure for virus caused deaths is
  • testing is random and is seeing large numbers of tests not being returned
  • and hospital admissions are not based on any control, but are variable/subjective

and out of those guessed at numbers we are supposed to accept that the guessed at final figure has some degree of accurate indication of what is happening......

.....more so, all those guesses are over two weeks old !

dear god, I have to wonder at times 🙄

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40 minutes ago, ricardo said:

The full interview is very interesting.

Also another angle on the R number. More in agreement with Bill.

 

thank you R (🙂)

if anyone is interested then go to 18mins 15 secs in which the woman echoes the points made in my previous posts

and adds the warnings I have raised

it just seems to me that such obvious flaws in the R guff should be not easily seen by others

 

and unkind as it is, that is why I have made reference to it being some sort of 'fortune telling' as peddled on here

do listen to her on 18 mins 15 secs - and heed the warnings

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Image result for clown car cartoon (With images) | Clown pics ...

It's Pritti Patel today. Quarantine, or two weeks isolation to be precise, will come into force, many months and millions of visitors too late, in TWO weeks time. Bravo.

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"Border Force will be able to refuse entry to foreign citizens who are not UK residents during border checks "

that's the bit I don't understand

it's almost as if the UK has had that power all along

surely they haven't been lying to the brexit numpties ?

 

ps before any comment, do check on what controls have changed since 31st Jan 2020

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18 minutes ago, Herman said:

Image result for clown car cartoon (With images) | Clown pics ...

It's Pritti Patel today. Quarantine, or two weeks isolation to be precise, will come into force, many months and millions of visitors too late, in TWO weeks time. Bravo.

And I'm betting that within a month it will be rescinded for many countries.

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4 minutes ago, Mark .Y. said:

And I'm betting that within a month it will be rescinded for many countries.

The Australians, quite fairly, were already grumbling. And the Koreans have a bit of spending power, so you are probably right.

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1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

It's interesting Ricardo - But it's a little dated as the serological data for the UK does indeed show 5% generally and 17% for London - where as the interviewer probes that make her theory more awkward and difficult to square.

Of course there will be higher true number and all sorts of 'other' effects at play - perhaps large numbers are immune anyway as she alighted upon prior CV-19.

Whatever you think it looks pretty infectious and deadly to me in the over 70s. If it had spread widely much earlier where is the excess deaths for these in January and February. They are not there.

Very thought provoking point re the lockdown at 25.20 secs

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9 minutes ago, Herman said:

The Australians, quite fairly, were already grumbling. And the Koreans have a bit of spending power, so you are probably right.

Yes, I can see many countries being exempted including most of the EU

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19 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Very thought provoking point re the lockdown at 25.20 secs

I will look again later. Just had fish and chips for the first time in many many weeks.

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Just now, Yellow Fever said:

I will look again later. Just had fish and chips for the first time in many many weeks.

Cor, 🍟🐟

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As we are talking about t cells and herd immunity I thought I'd throw this in

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/t-cells-found-covid-19-patients-bode-well-long-term-immunity

"Immune warriors known as T cells help us fight some viruses, but their importance for battling SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, has been unclear. Now, two studies reveal infected people harbor T cells that target the virus—and may help them recover. Both studies also found some people never infected with SARS-CoV-2 have these cellular defenses, most likely because they were previously infected with other coronaviruses....

...The teams also asked whether people who haven’t been infected with SARS-CoV-2 also produce cells that combat it. Thiel and colleagues analyzed blood from 68 uninfected people and found that 34% hosted helper T cells that recognized SARS-CoV-2"

 

or put it another way you may have some immunity if you have previously encountered a similar coronavirus.  

might mean that antibody levels in studies do not show the true level of immunity. Meaning we could be closer to the critical level than we realise.

Edited by Barbe bleu

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5 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

Not slowing down quick enough if that makes sense.

Yeh of course it makes sense, we were coming of the peak and now we have another epidemic taking place in hospitals and care settings, a tragedy. Indications are that infection within the community has a much lower rate of infection, sadly no consolation for the loved ones of those departed.

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9 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Yeh of course it makes sense, we were coming of the peak and now we have another epidemic taking place in hospitals and care settings, a tragedy. Indications are that infection within the community has a much lower rate of infection, sadly no consolation for the loved ones of those departed.

Of corse this is true but more people on average died from cancer today. Looks like we’re not too far away from treatments which might have a positive effect on the virus those infected and at more risk. So as sad as things still  are for those losing loved ones there’s definitely positives.

Get treatments in place which can prevent serious effects then it’s game on.....

Edited by Indy

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1 minute ago, Indy said:

Of corse this is true but more people on average died from cancer today. Looks like we’re not too far away from treatments which might have a positive effect on the virus those infected and at more risk.

Get treatments in place which can prevent serious effects then it’s game on.....

.......................except if you are over 70, then it's game over

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4 minutes ago, Bill said:

.......................except if you are over 70, then it's game over

I’m not sure it will be for long Bill, it certainly looks like a number of treatments are looking like they might help in the fight against this virus. It’s been pretty vicious on the older population, but hopefully it’ll show that care homes need to be more prepared for thing type of event in the future.

I’m still at a loss to why any older vulnerable people weren’t moved to hospitals before they got too seriously ill, surely if they showed symptoms they should have been isolated in hospital? That’s just one area though.

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19 minutes ago, Bill said:

.......................except if you are over 70, then it's game over

How many people over 70 have had it and survived?

Edit: I’ve got no idea

Edited by Aggy

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32 minutes ago, Indy said:

I’m still at a loss to why any older vulnerable people weren’t moved to hospitals before they got too seriously ill,

perhaps your earlier thought held sway

 

"time to know you can’t save everyone, the cost would have been and still are well over the top in my book, especially when you you consider you old boys have lived your life through probably the best of years."

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42 minutes ago, Bill said:

.......................except if you are over 70, then it's game over

More nonsense.

 

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13 minutes ago, Bill said:

perhaps your earlier thought held sway

 

"time to know you can’t save everyone, the cost would have been and still are well over the top in my book, especially when you you consider you old boys have lived your life through probably the best of years."

Sorry Bill, in context it was against the 88 billion cost in one month, I know you’re view is more focused on the lives lost, but the reality is that the average age which people are living has risen by nearly 10 years to 83....from where it was in the late 70’s.

I stand by the fact we now try to save everyone’s lives when the reality is they might only have a few months of very poor quality of life left. I have a different view that we live to have families, we want the best for our children and I’d certainly want to protect them, so you might see me as callous but for me I’d rather an 85 year old with serious health issues pass away than any youngster or parents in their 30’s.

As we know a good NHS needs to be funded well, the longer we borrow record amounts the weaker the NHS might become in the future.

I accept we see things differently I’ve worked in an industry where I’ve spent lots of time doing hazops, risk assessment and as aviation we had to put a price on a life, I suppose this with other things just make life less important to me.

That said I’ve been shopping and looking after a few of our local elderly residents in our road, it’s been a pleasure and a laugh to get to know them better. It’s always sad when someone passes but that’s the way of life.

Edited by Indy

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