Corona Virus main thread

[Mark .Y. 351]

8 hours ago, Aggy said:

I suppose it depends on what the “underlying health conditions” are. If the average person dying is in their 80s, chances are that lots will have underlying health conditions which aren’t as a result solely of obesity or lack of fitness. Compromised immune systems from cancers and the like again put you at higher risk from coronavirus but aren’t necessarily related to obesity etc. Of course some cancers and even dementia / Alzheimer’s (which ONS reckons is the most common “underlying health condition” in coronavirus deaths) can be caused from “lifestyle”, but many are caused by other things.

 

Apologies in advance if I’m missing something blindly obvious here, but why does the death certificate of 41,000 mention coronavirus if there have only be 35,000 deaths with a positive coronavirus test result? Is it just that there have been 6000 “guesses” that coronavirus was involved, or is the 35k figure referring to tests done only when alive?

A couple of extracts from the ONS site that might explain it Aggy (figures are from a little while ago but the principle is obviously the same) ........

Our definition of COVID-19 includes some cases where the certifying doctor suspected the death involved COVID-19 but was not certain, for example, because no test was done. Of the 32,143 deaths with an underlying cause of COVID-19, 1,325 (4.1%) were classified as “suspected” COVID-19. Including mentions, “suspected” COVID-19 was recorded on 4.7% of all deaths involving COVID-19.

In this bulletin, we use the term “due to COVID-19” when referring only to deaths with an underlying cause of death as COVID-19, and we use the term “involving COVID-19” when referring to deaths that had COVID-19 mentioned anywhere on the death certificate, whether an underlying cause or not.

Edited May 22, 2020 by Mark .Y.

[Well b back 3,190]

For those that follow it I have just updated the come on sarah thread that the Jenner vaccine has now moved to the next stage. For all you outside of Norfolk that may wish to volunteer I have also put on volunteer links.

[T 190]

10 hours ago, Aggy said:

Bit of a strange article. Suggests everyone going to these rallies are “radical extremists, conspiracy theorists, anti-vaxxers and antisemites” but then the only quote they provide is someone saying  ““Why should I be locked up in my own house when only 8,000 people have died of this virus? Meanwhile, the economy is dying, and my neighbour hasn’t been able to visit his wife in a care home for eight weeks. It’s criminal.” 
 

Now, the chap saying it might be a radical extremist or anitsemite as far as I know, but that quote seems like a fairly reasonable argument to make, made in a fairly reasonable manner.

It is a few thousand but they are held in contempt by the general population. The argument may sound reasonable but is of course illogical because one of the reasons the death rate is so low in Germany is because restrictions were imposed relatively early although there is a view it should have been a week earlier. 
 

No doubt some genuinely hold these beliefs but the movement has been hijacked by far right extremists who are carefully monitored by the German authority for protecting the German constitution. 
 

The only political group where there is support among voters is the hard right AfD which I find odd as they are the German equivalent of a term I really dislike but probably best captures the UK equivalent „gammons“ who are at higher risk. A group incidentally that even though they are xenophobic don’t support leaving the EU because they know as much as they dislike the EU as does just about everyone in Germany that leaving is economic suicide. 
 

In practice the restrictions in Germany are being lifted anyway so really it is illogical  why they are so agitated as the focus is very much on contact tracing so you can do a lot of things but often it is just required for someone from group  to leave name and number and this has to to kept for a few weeks to enable contact tracing. 

[Yellow Fever 3,749]

10 hours ago, Aggy said:

 

Sorry, what’s the point you’re making here? If they haven’t really imposed a lockdown and only 7 per cent of the population have caught it since their first confirmed case on 4th February, are you suggesting coronavirus isn’t as infectious as previously made out?

Aggy - A bit late but.

One of the big discussion points has been Sweden's 'herd immunity' outlier approach to Covid-19 as opposed to more standard drastic lock-down as the rest of Scandinavia (and notably fewer deaths). Even the Swedesa admit as per many others they have failed the care homes.

Swedish government scientists have been saying for some time that they were approaching 'herd immunity' in Stockholm ( despite few small AB checks that didn't support the view) but now finally we have some solid evidence - its similar in Stockholm to other major cities - nowhere near the herd immunity  levels (50, 60% or so) required. Indeed London is nearer! 

So the Swedes are both right and wrong - they are as likely to get a devastating 2nd or 3rd or 4th wave as anybody else given the figures and our best understanding - but they have achieved these low AB numbers without the drastic economic lockdown as per elsewhere - although beware that they do have social distancing and restrictions (it's far far from business a usual) both by nature and now design. Their economy nevertheless will and has still suffered an enormous set-back  - and as noted their 'Covid' numbers look very bad as compared to their Nordic neighbours.

For what it's worth - I suspect what it shows is that the virus spreads mainly in family groups or with people living and working closely together - normal 'respectful' shopping or even small gatherings for short periods are less risky i.e as per Sweden. Something we can learn and implement.

There is also another factor - the date of any measures in the progress of the disease - in Sweden their  natural social distancing would of slowed any spread and earlyish additional measures probably helped quickly to suppress spread. In London by contrast - the dithering and delay meant most of the cases (17% ?) were likely already 'in the can' as far as the virus was concerned BEFORE the UK  lockdown! It would of helped more elsewhere.

[BigFish 1,986]

14 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

My opinion still stands. The pruproty now is to stop people dying. I dont think that PMQs helps us do this.

If a policy is bad it can be shown to be bad under any form of scrutiny.  It shouldnt take the Yaboo of 30 minutes a week to do it.  Most countries seem to cope without the bear pit .

On a day that effective scrutiny was actually demonstrated to work, and work well, via PMQs this opinion is perverse. PMQ works thanks to Starmer because it puts the PM himself under scrutiny, it is realtively high profile and it is on the record.

Btw if you think the government's priority is to stop people dying you haven't been paying attention.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Whether or not there is a second wave Mark, surely the Government has learned some lessons and will prepare for one. And we all should as well. But I wonder if when things are eased, people will go on every kind of bender of spending and hedonism they can.

[Barbe bleu 816]

13 minutes ago, BigFish said:

On a day that effective scrutiny was actually demonstrated to work, and work well, via PMQs this opinion is perverse. PMQ works thanks to Starmer because it puts the PM himself under scrutiny, it is realtively high profile and it is on the record.

Btw if you think the government's priority is to stop people dying you haven't been paying attention.

Read your last paragraph again.

I dont suppose you even appreciate just how closed minded you are. 

[BigFish 1,986]

Hope this kills the Sweden herd immunity deflection..........Sweden’s death toll unnerves its Nordic neighbours | Free to read

[Barbe bleu 816]

14 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Whether or not there is a second wave Mark, surely the Government has learned some lessons and will prepare for one. And we all should as well. But I wonder if when things are eased, people will go on every kind of bender of spending and hedonism they can.

I would be surprised if some sort of cathartic release, probably centered around the pub, does not happen!

[BigFish 1,986]

12 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Read your last paragraph again.

I dont suppose you even appreciate just how closed minded you are. 

Pot and kettle spring to mind. I read my last paragraph again and stand by it.

If the government's priority was to save lives we would have entered lockdown two weeks earlier and roughly 75% to those who have died would still be alive.

Your constant low level apologia for the government speaks volumes

Edited May 22, 2020 by BigFish
sp

[Barbe bleu 816]

6 minutes ago, BigFish said:

Hope this kills the Sweden herd immunity deflection..........Sweden’s death toll unnerves its Nordic neighbours | Free to read

That appears to be a graph which shows that the swedish death rate is in decline and a little over half what it was at its peak.

What do you put the decline down to?

[Herman 9,717]

Death? 

[Barbe bleu 816]

10 minutes ago, BigFish said:

Pot and kettle spring to mind. I read my last paragraph again and stand by it.

If the government's priority was to save lives we would have entered lockdown two weeks earlier and roughly 75% to those who have died would still be alive.

Your constant low level apologia for the government speaks volumes

My constant apologies?

I've been critical of many things this government has done. For instance, (and look back if you wish) I have said:

The government focussed on the wrong things (probably to appease the opposition) and (like everyone) missed out big issues like infection control at care homes.

 the containment policy was not well implemented 

 contact tracing and community testing should have continued even after it was found that the spread was too wide to be fully effective.

 

But I have also challenged the orthodoxy that has emerged here.   

Now tell me where you have defended the government? Or is it fair to say that you came here with an agenda that was not to have an open discussion about coronavirus?

Edited May 22, 2020 by Barbe bleu

[Barbe bleu 816]

14 minutes ago, Herman said:

Death? 

It's a flippant remark I appreciate,  but (unless iam looking at it all wrong, and if I am correct me) that graph big fish posted does show a marked decline in the death rate. 

 It could be a seasonal element has intervened but it could also be herd immunity kicking in.  Either way what does this indicate for our next steps?

Edited May 22, 2020 by Barbe bleu

[BigFish 1,986]

17 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

That appears to be a graph which shows that the swedish death rate is in decline and a little over half what it was at its peak.

What do you put the decline down to?

Sweeden is the blue line, it appears to show a plataeu over significant period, not a decline.

[Mark .Y. 351]

49 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Whether or not there is a second wave Mark, surely the Government has learned some lessons and will prepare for one. And we all should as well. But I wonder if when things are eased, people will go on every kind of bender of spending and hedonism they can.

For the first bit - hopefully. For the last bit - almost certainly 🙂

 

[BigFish 1,986]

11 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

My constant apologies?

I've been critical of many things this government has done. For instance, (and look back if you wish) I have said:

The government focussed on the wrong things (probably to appease the opposition) and (like everyone) missed out big issues like infection control at care homes.

 the containment policy was not well implemented 

 contact tracing and community testing should have continued even after it was found that the spread was too wide to be fully effective.

 

But I have also challenged the orthodoxy that has emerged here.   

Now tell me where you have defended the government? Or is it fair to say that you came here with an agenda that was not to have an open discussion about coronavirus?

You just can't stop yourself, can you?

What orthodoxy have you challenged? Why should I defend the government? Why are you so upset by open discussion.

[Yellow Fever 3,749]

24 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

It's a flippant remark I appreciate,  but (unless iam looking at it all wrong, and if I am correct me) that graph big fish posted does show a marked decline in the death rate. 

 It could be a seasonal element has intervened but it could also be herd immunity kicking in.  Either way what does this indicate for our next steps?

BB - The point is that its extremely unlikely to be 'herd immunity' at play - that idea is really dying (pun) on its feet.

Much more likely to be due to social distancing even in Sweden whether formal or informal. 

People have a sense of self preservation!

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

About "Herd Immunity" which people seem to mention in a derogatory way.

 

OK so the preference obviously is for a vaccine which basically lets us get to herd immunity without the actual disease having to go through the population, but as we're told repeatedly, that's not a definite.  It may never happen.

 

Without a vaccine, long term it seems to me the only way things will ever get back to normal is via herd immunity.  Unless we're willing to live with massive restrictions on movement & social contact indefinitely.  Track & trace only works if you're then able to close down areas to prevent further spread, and with no restrictions on contact between people (i.e life back to normal) then Covid will rapidly spread again and overwhelm any T&T system (unless lockdown is brought back - but like I say, I'm talking about the long term).

 

Or am I missing something?

 

One big question is the % infected you need to achieve herd immunity ,where in Sweden they seem to think it's a lot lower than the 60% mentioned from the IC modelling.

 

 

[Creative Midfielder 1,985]

8 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Read your last paragraph again.

I dont suppose you even appreciate just how closed minded you are. 

Sorry BB but BigFish is spot on - you have not being paying attention, even to the Government's own statements - 'Protect the NHS' remember!??

I have a neightbour, very capable, very well informed and extremely professional working in the public health field. They were absolutely furious and disgusted by Johnson's initial briefing because they said it was instantly apparent that the priority was not save lives but to avoid the embarassment of the NHS being overwhelmed.

I won't bother to list the very clear reasoning behind their conclusion because I know you view any criticism of the Government as unacceptable and irrelevant. But if you actually think about it, even for a short while, I'm pretty sure you will appreciate that whilst saving as many lives as possible and protecting or stopping the NHS being overwhelmed are both laudable objectives they are clearly not the same objective and in some cases they are actually conflicting objectives.

Naturally they weren't the only objectives either because like every country we were also facing a massive economic hit as well. So of course there was no perfect solution and the Government had to prioritise, and you may well think they choose the right priority. But to suggest that minimising loss of life has been their priority is pretty absurd, even avoiding the argument about the lateness of prioriting anything - just think back to that first 'herd immunity' briefing about slowing down the speed of transmission as the virus spread through the population which in turn morphed into 'Protect the NHS' when they realised the spread was already so fast the NHS was in danger of being overwhelmed - minimising deaths was never the priority.

 

[Barbe bleu 816]

32 minutes ago, BigFish said:

Sweeden is the blue line, it appears to show a plataeu over significant period, not a decline.

Thank you. 

As far as I can tell the death rate in sweden peaked at around 11 per million on day 38 or thereabouts.  By day 62 it was around 6.5.

Am I looking  at this wrong?

[Barbe bleu 816]

26 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Sorry BB but BigFish is spot on - you have not being paying attention, even to the Government's own statements - 'Protect the NHS' remember!??

 it was instantly apparent that the priority was not save lives but to avoid the embarassment of the NHS being overwhelmed.

If you believe that this government would prefer to see thousands die than see press and TV reports of the NHS being overwhelmed and the loss of prestige that follows then that's your prerogative.

I took the protect the NHS line to mean that if it were overwhelmed we would not be able to treat everyone and that this lack of treatment would lead to avoidable deaths. If you believe something different that is fine.  Neither of us really know what Boris, his cabinet or advisors really think. 

 

 

[Barbe bleu 816]

39 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

because I know you view any criticism of the Government as unacceptable and irrelevant. 

 

No i dont.  I have laid out three criticisms of the government only a couple of posts ago.

I came on this thread because I have an interest in the subject not because I have a strong party political views .

I do, however, suspect others have come on here to continue a campaign that is also being waged on other fronts. Unfortunately they have largely seen off any who dont want to get involved in a political debate and that is a shame.

Edited May 22, 2020 by Barbe bleu

[BigFish 1,986]

39 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Thank you. 

As far as I can tell the death rate in sweden peaked at around 11 per million on day 38 or thereabouts.  By day 62 it was around 6.5.

Am I looking  at this wrong?

There was a hump between day 30 and day 46 but since then there appears to have been no downward trend. The result is Sweden's figures at day 62 are the worst the FT is mapping & have been fairlt constant for the last 16 days e.g. it looks to me the rate was the same at day 46, 50, 56 and 62 and higher between 46 and 50 as well as 50 and 53.

[Barbe bleu 816]

6 minutes ago, BigFish said:

There was a hump between day 30 and day 46 but since then there appears to have been no downward trend. The result is Sweden's figures at day 62 are the worst the FT is mapping & have been fairlt constant for the last 16 days e.g. it looks to me the rate was the same at day 46, 50, 56 and 62 and higher between 46 and 50 as well as 50 and 53.

Bit more than a hump! After exponential growth it peaks and goes into retreat.

You are right about the last couple of weeks.   After day 52 it does appear to be broadly level. The overall numbers are probably too low to draw many firm conclusions but if we are to draw any it is probably that R was approximately 1 2-4 weeks ago. 

 

[sonyc 5,492]

1 hour ago, It's Character Forming said:

About "Herd Immunity" which people seem to mention in a derogatory way.

 

OK so the preference obviously is for a vaccine which basically lets us get to herd immunity without the actual disease having to go through the population, but as we're told repeatedly, that's not a definite.  It may never happen.

 

Without a vaccine, long term it seems to me the only way things will ever get back to normal is via herd immunity.  Unless we're willing to live with massive restrictions on movement & social contact indefinitely.  Track & trace only works if you're then able to close down areas to prevent further spread, and with no restrictions on contact between people (i.e life back to normal) then Covid will rapidly spread again and overwhelm any T&T system (unless lockdown is brought back - but like I say, I'm talking about the long term).

 

Or am I missing something?

 

One big question is the % infected you need to achieve herd immunity ,where in Sweden they seem to think it's a lot lower than the 60% mentioned from the IC modelling.

 

 

Having come back from the long dog walk with Snowy, I wondered if your HI question had received any response (sometimes I find it's a question of good or bad timing because a line of thread at that time is still ongoing at pace and your point gets ignored).

I read this piece (it's very long) but it is interesting in setting out the pros and cons. Sweden is talked about quite a bit (and a subtle call more towards that line of thinking).

The Herd Immunity Taboo - Tablet Magazine https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/science/articles/plague-journal-herd-immunity-doidge

 

Edited May 22, 2020 by sonyc

[sonyc 5,492]

Very encouraging news and running now on mainstream news outlets. Perhaps treatments aimed at 'helpful' T cells can be one way forward and I'm sure many more will emerge. Scientists are starting to understand this virus.

Blood test could reveal how the immune system responds to coronavirus

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200522/Blood-test-could-reveal-how-the-immune-system-responds-to-coronavirus.aspx

 

 

[Bill 1,788]

sadly another 351 deaths announced

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Not slowing down quick enough if that makes sense.

[Bill 1,788]

1 minute ago, keelansgrandad said:

Not slowing down quick enough if that makes sense.

that has always been my concern, that the tea leave gazers would leap on decreasing numbers as a sign ...."the gourd, it's a sign" of the virus having an easily understood pattern of spread, growth and then finally fading away

whereas there are so many variables the best we can do is regard death numbers as about the sum total of any exact measurement

the mythical R number is pretty much as meaningless, as it is only a guess

and given the timescale involved on becoming infected and dying we cannot be assured what has been the cause, or partial cause

anyone 'out and about' will now that the past seven days have been very open compared to before - so it will be into June before we have any idea what effect this greater social contact may have had, or being had, with the danger that folk might see the various 'reading of the runes'as meaning that is as 'good as over'......it is not