Corona Virus main thread

[Barbe bleu 826]

2 hours ago, Surfer said:

USA on Friday   51,591 - 998    if the UK had a similar size problem it would be reporting 10,000 - 200

Daily tests around 800,000 and positivity rate above 6%  - except in Florida where it's still above 15% 

New York got its act together with a positivity rate is below 1%  And they are still doing a lot of tests.

So for all of your troubles, you are doing O.K. Take care all.... 

Take heart from worldometer which shows US infection rates falling.   We'll all get there.

[Van wink 2,994]

10 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Take heart from worldometer which shows US infection rates falling.   We'll all get there.

Good to see you posting👍

[Barbe bleu 826]

44 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Good to see you posting👍

Ta, I like the debate and the intelligence on all sides on here but thought it was crossing a few too many lines yesterday. I'm staying out of it if it goes too far.

 

 

[sonyc 5,519]

I've posted about this matter at the weekend  It looks like from this week we are going to get stronger and clearer  messaging from this government. It is needed.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/sep/08/covid-19-in-britain-a-summer-of-mixed-messages?

 

[king canary 7,606]

19 minutes ago, sonyc said:

I've posted about this matter at the weekend  It looks like from this week we are going to get stronger and clearer  messaging from this government. It is needed.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/sep/08/covid-19-in-britain-a-summer-of-mixed-messages?

 

Yeah this latest announcement is going to need quite a bit of explaining to make any sense.

Can't gather in groups of more than 6 outdoors but we can still go sit in a pub with who knows how many other people and we should still be getting on public transport in order to go back to the office. Bizarre. 

[Van wink 2,994]

9 minutes ago, king canary said:

Yeah this latest announcement is going to need quite a bit of explaining to make any sense.

Can't gather in groups of more than 6 outdoors but we can still go sit in a pub with who knows how many other people and we should still be getting on public transport in order to go back to the office. Bizarre. 

We opened up far to much too soon and will be desperately trying to put the brakes on again. This rise in numbers and sadly what will follow is an inevitable consequence of the way people have been behaving, thinking, with mixed and poor quality messaging from Government.

[Barbe bleu 826]

39 minutes ago, sonyc said:

I've posted about this matter at the weekend  It looks like from this week we are going to get stronger and clearer  messaging from this government. 

 

Maybe they read the pink un message board.   You asked for a louder message and a day later they listened. Hopefully the message will get through.

[Yellow Fever 3,785]

10 minutes ago, Van wink said:

We opened up far to much too soon and will be desperately trying to put the brakes on again. This rise in numbers and sadly what will follow is an inevitable consequence of the way people have been behaving, thinking, with mixed and poor quality messaging from Government.

Entirely true. I'm very pleased the government has at last acted (a bit) but I suspect it remains too little too late and purely reactive as the djinn is out of the bottle again. I suspect stroger measure will have to follow (pubs, restaurants, clubs) but let's hope.

Separately I see the Oxford vaccine trial has had to be put on hold - suspended - a volunteer had an unexplained illness. Hopefully it will just be chance not the vaccine itself the cause and trials can continue.

[dj11 377]

I do find it ironic that Johnson is preparing to fine people for breaking the law, whilst at the same time preparing a bill to break international law. 

[CANARYKING 638]

Rumours flying around of a possible 10pm curfew and a lock in for over 60’s

[ricardo 7,395]

 

UK still within the 2-3k positives range. Fatalities back down after the weekend catch up effect

Latest UK Numbers  2659 - 8

There has been a noticeable jump in the number of inpatients from 767 to 843

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Yesterdays European.

Italy   1370 - 10

France 6544 - 38

Spain   8964  - 78

Germany  1331  - 4

France and Spain accelerate again

[Aggy 755]

Hardly putting the brakes on. I’m shocked to find out the “rule of six” wasn’t the case all along and almost everyone I’ve spoken to today thought that was already the case (including people outside of the north west where apparently it hasn’t been the case at any point). 

Also confused that the rules now appear to be bringing the “outdoor rules” in line with the “indoor rules” in terms of numbers gathering . Is the virus now equally as ‘spreadable’ indoors as out? Surely six people meeting up indoors is far more dangerous than six people sitting 2 metres apart in a park? That’s what we’ve been told for months. If it’s only safe to have six people sitting 2 metres apart in a park, then surely (on the government’s previous logic) it should only be safe for something like 2 or 3 people to meet up inside?

Today seems like little more than “let’s say anything to make it look we’re doing something” rather than anything which will make any difference.

[Surfer 1,547]

On 08/09/2020 at 14:05, Barbe bleu said:

Take heart from worldometer which shows US infection rates falling.   We'll all get there.

On average (across all the States) it is, but there is a direct relationship between those States that have taken this seriously and those that have not - NY 1%, CA 4%, TX, 8%, FL 12% IA 14%
 

The revelations today from tape recordings where the President knew the virus was 5 x more deadly than the flu and airborne but decided to play it down publicly anyway has guaranteed it’s now a highly visible political scandal / issue.

Edited September 9, 2020 by Surfer

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Calamity. Obfuscation. Vagueness. Ignorance. Dreadful.

Our government.

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

30 minutes ago, T said:

A price worth paying according to Ricardo which I guess it is if you are not the one paying the price and don’t care about other people’s jobs and lives.   

Have we any any idea at all yet what benefits we are paying this price for??

[Barbe bleu 826]

16 hours ago, ricardo said:

 

UK still within the 2-3k positives range. Fatalities back down after the weekend catch up effect

Latest UK Numbers  2659 - 8

There has been a noticeable jump in the number of inpatients from 767 to 843

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Yesterdays European.

Italy   1370 - 10

France 6544 - 38

Spain   8964  - 78

Germany  1331  - 4

France and Spain accelerate again

Mixed bag there.   Infection rates staying steady is a good thing (though we have heard of lab problems in the last few days).   The rise in hospitalisations in a bit of a concern, still a long way from the earlier peak but is this the start of a rise that leads to rising death rates? Evidence from France and Spain suggests it might be but even there the elevated levels are some way off the respective peaks.

Italy is an interesting one,  no sunstantial rise for a while, did they inadvertently do a Sweden and find a natural way out if it?  If so, was there greater cost than the official figures suggest?

[Barbe bleu 826]

15 hours ago, Surfer said:

On average (across all the States) it is, but there is a direct relationship between those States that have taken this seriously and those that have not - NY 1%, CA 4%, TX, 8%, FL 12% IA 14%
 

The revelations today from tape recordings where the President knew the virus was 5 x more deadly than the flu and airborne but decided to play it down publicly anyway has guaranteed it’s now a highly visible political scandal / issue.

 I think you are overly pessimistic. The state level graphs are all pretty much showing a rise and fall in both infections and deaths.

I know nothing of the community testing regimes but I would hope that deaths are largely reflective of trends. If so, the direction is a good one pretty much across the board ahead of the race between winter and vaccine.

Unfortunately a high price paid in many areas for the current position. For instance, I wouldnt feel too bothered about a trip to NY right now but it definitely took the brunt early on.

Don't take this as a political point, i know far too little of US policies to make a meaningful contribution.  All I am doing  is looking at the figures and commenting on where  they are currently pointing.

[Yellow Fever 3,785]

2 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

Mixed bag there.   Infection rates staying steady is a good thing (though we have heard of lab problems in the last few days).   The rise in hospitalisations in a bit of a concern, still a long way from the earlier peak but is this the start of a rise that leads to rising death rates? Evidence from France and Spain suggests it might be but even there the elevated levels are some way off the respective peaks.

Italy is an interesting one,  no sunstantial rise for a while, did they inadvertently do a Sweden and find a natural way out if it?  If so, was there greater cost than the official figures suggest?

I don't think Sweden has found anyway out at all! It's the same sort of wishful thinking we had here until a few days ago. Compare with it nordic neighbours and lets see how the virus reemerges.

[sonyc 5,519]

37 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I don't think Sweden has found anyway out at all! It's the same sort of wishful thinking we had here until a few days ago. Compare with it nordic neighbours and lets see how the virus reemerges.

It's fascinating to watch (and try and interpret). There have been many mainstream press stories in the recent 48 hours (one shared below for the graphs) announcing a certain vindication of their so-called herd immunity approach.  Yet, what happens next? Whilst hospitalisation numbers are very low, you can just see a start of 7 day average increases (also in new numbers of course). 

"Sweden has just 13 coronavirus patients in intensive care despite avoiding lockdown"

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8717867/Sweden-just-13-coronavirus-patients-intensive-care-despite-avoiding-lockdown.html

 

 

[sonyc 5,519]

Countries (central Europe)  which managed to keep infection rates low in March and April are now seeing very high increases in new infections.  Again, it's noted that younger populations are getting it. You wonder whether, in the face of low hospitalisation rates, whether the way forward is that younger people get on with their lives, take children to school, go to work etc whilst the older population take greater care. And mixing between the two groups is minimised as much as possible.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/10/czechs-face-second-coronavirus-wave-as-cases-soar-in-europe?

[Yellow Fever 3,785]

10 minutes ago, sonyc said:

It's fascinating to watch (and try and interpret). There have been many mainstream press stories in the recent 48 hours (one shared below for the graphs) announcing a certain vindication of their so-called herd immunity approach.  Yet, what happens next? Whilst hospitalisation numbers are very low, you can just see a start of 7 day average increases (also in new numbers of course). 

"Sweden has just 13 coronavirus patients in intensive care despite avoiding lockdown"

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8717867/Sweden-just-13-coronavirus-patients-intensive-care-despite-avoiding-lockdown.html

 

 

Agreed - It's just that if you went back only a week here we were 'opening up' - the argument still goes we have very low rates - but now we are closing down.

I've seen very little that would suggest Sweden is doing any better / worse than it's neighbours - more deaths certainly and by some measures actually suffered more of an economic hit (taken over two quarters). My gut instinct is that some are still clinging to 'herd immunity' which seems to have been largely debunked in most countries including Sweden to date as a major general factor. More so if your body 'forgets' after 3 months.

Reasons for the apparent 'changes' to the current infection rate etc probably lie elsewhere - demographics, the elderly bening far more cautious, many of the most exposed already passed, natural social distancing and so on.

[Aggy 755]

Hospital waiting times for routine operations now the longest they’ve ever been (since records began) according to BBC article.
 

Good reminder that this isn’t just an economy vs lives debate.

Edited September 10, 2020 by Aggy

[Barbe bleu 826]

2 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

 

I've seen very little that would suggest Sweden is doing any better / worse than it's neighbours - more deaths certainly and by some measures actually suffered more of an economic hit (taken over two quarters). My gut instinct is that some are still clinging to 'herd immunity' which seems to have been largely debunked in most countries including Sweden to date as a major general factor. More so if your body 'forgets' after 3 months.

Reasons for the apparent 'changes' to the current infection rate etc probably lie elsewhere - demographics, the elderly bening far more cautious, many of the most exposed already passed, natural social distancing and so on.

Interesting thoughts.   There is something about Sweden though.  Everywhere else in Europe is seeing cases rise dnd I think the same is largely true  of deaths (albeit on a  much smaller scale).   Sweden is seeing the  opposite, what makes them the exception ?

As to immunity lasting only 3 months, if that were the case then we might as well give up completely and just accept that out time is limited...

[Surfer 1,547]

6 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

 I think you are overly pessimistic. The state level graphs are all pretty much showing a rise and fall in both infections and deaths.

Don't take this as a political point, i know far too little of US policies to make a meaningful contribution.  All I am doing  is looking at the figures and commenting on where  they are currently pointing.

There is a very direct correlation between the wearing of masks and shutting down indoor activities like bars and restaurants. New York did, California did, stopped and restarted it, and Arizona, Texas and Florida finally did after all the evidence from New York was ignored and their rates shot up. Is it political - you bet it is, the President and his team down played the Virus - remember the Democrat hoax line - railed against wearing masks and encouraged mass meetings like political conventions, church meetings and many Republican governors followed his lead. So yes there are downward trends, but there are also other States trending upwards - usually again Republican led states for whatever reason.

Yesterday NY 1%, CA 2%, AZ 4% - all testing at high rates, whereas TX 8%, FL 12%, IA 14%. 

The US and global economy can not tolerate this discrepancy, we can’t reopen the US until everywhere is at 2%, and we can’t reopen any international travel until we get there either. 

Edited September 10, 2020 by Surfer

[Yellow Fever 3,785]

52 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Interesting thoughts.   There is something about Sweden though.  Everywhere else in Europe is seeing cases rise dnd I think the same is largely true  of deaths (albeit on a  much smaller scale).   Sweden is seeing the  opposite, what makes them the exception ?

As to immunity lasting only 3 months, if that were the case then we might as well give up completely and just accept that out time is limited...

Good luck to Sweden - the more data points the better - you might question if it's 'ethical' to deliberately go for herd immunity though. Are the deaths worth it? On 'forgetting' - a month or so ago we had the first reconfirmed case of 're-catching' the disease but as with all these things and second bout severity it's far too early to say either way. However, as with the vaccine the media (generally not the experts) love to 'grab at straws' - which is really what I'm guarding against - hyperbole.

[ricardo 7,395]

Similar figures to yesterday

Latest UK Numbers  2919 - 14

Inpatients  837

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Yesterdays European.

Italy   1434 - 14

France 8577 - 30

Spain   8866  - 34

Germany  1393  - 1

 

[ricardo 7,395]

France on course for second place.

[Herman 9,765]

Where's safer Dr. Ricardo. North Norfolk or the South Coast (Hastings/Rye area)?

[ricardo 7,395]

34 minutes ago, Herman said:

Where's safer Dr. Ricardo. North Norfolk or the South Coast (Hastings/Rye area)?

Head up to North Norfolk mate, you know it makes sense. Cromer Crab, best in the world.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

5 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Head up to North Norfolk mate, you know it makes sense. Cromer Crab, best in the world.

I would rather have a pasty than the crabs😀