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28 minutes ago, sonyc said:

1.7 seems to equate to a doubling every 7 or 8 days from what I've understood. In the previous peak R was around 3 I recall (doubling every 3 days or so). Today's figures then might be in the mid 3000s.☹️

Correct but France and Spain going haywire

Latest UK Numbers  3539 - 6

Inpatients  863 up from 837

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Yesterdays European.

Italy   1597 - 10

France 9843 - 19

Spain   10764  - 71

Germany  1758  - 9

 

Note also 50k more test yesterday in UK now 227k so positives still under 2%

Edited by ricardo

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3 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Correct but France and Spain going haywire

Latest UK Numbers  3539 - 6

Inpatients  863 up from 837

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Yesterdays European.

Italy   1597 - 10

France 9843 - 19

Spain   10764  - 71

Germany  1758  - 9

 

Note also 50k more test yesterday in UK now 227k

We are behind though by a few weeks. I think it's a fairly safe bet to suggest we will be reaching 8000/9000 fairly soon if we follow those trajectories. Hospitalisation is key isn't it. Though I note those numbers are increasing too. Let's hope we can keep the more vulnerable communities better protected via policy, behaviour, testing.

Do you believe in those "Moonshot" numbers Ricardo? 1m tests per day by December? Then more in 2021. Scientists have poured scorn or perhaps I should say, have tempered those figures with a degree of scepticism. Hope we can increase numbers for the sake of the economy. (Unsure myself though if £100bn is a good use of money for untried and unknown reliability of saliva tests). I even agreed with Hartley Brewer (there's always a first) when she suggested money like that should be used on cancer and other non Covid treatments and the backlog 

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First hospital death in Cornwall since late June.

Grandson had a test on Wednesday as he had the symptoms after a weekend trip to Windsor to see his Dad. Think he may just be a bit rundown but we aren't taking any chances until the result is negative.

Golf trip to Ashbury (16 of us) in October looking less likely. Easy to keep distance on the course but meals and evenings could affect the outcome.

 

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1 minute ago, sonyc said:

We are behind though by a few weeks. I think it's a fairly safe bet to suggest we will be reaching 8000/9000 fairly soon if we follow those trajectories. Hospitalisation is key isn't it. Though I note those numbers are increasing too. Let's hope we can keep the more vulnerable communities better protected via policy, behaviour, testing.

Do you believe in those "Moonshot" numbers Ricardo? 1m tests per day by December? Then more in 2021. Scientists have poured scorn or perhaps I should say, have tempered those figures with a degree of scepticism. Hope we can increase numbers for the sake of the economy. (Unsure myself though if £100bn is a good use of money for untried and unknown reliability of saliva tests). I even agreed with Hartley Brewer (there's always a first) when she suggested money like that should be used on cancer and other non Covid treatments and the backlog 

The history of action during the crisis would suggest £100Bn is likely to be a waste.

Hartley Brewer being conciliatory recently. Has she had an epiphany?

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3 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

The history of action during the crisis would suggest £100Bn is likely to be a waste.

Hartley Brewer being conciliatory recently. Has she had an epiphany?

She is someone who simply wants the economy opened up fully and likens C19 with flu. There is an argument there but unsure if I sign up to it fully. Yet, for sure, I can see an argument for that kind of resource going towards folk in waiting lists, for scans etc.

I'm like you perhaps, you'll be thinking that the government (Hancock) picks out big numbers and announces them before capacity is built. It is rather a distraction. I'm a bit old fashioned. Even in my job before when we had really good news to announce I was less keen on crowing about it. These days this lot seem to use phrases like 'world beating' when it's not even been in operation long. They need to over-perform first.

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Oxford and City college London predicted ( to the government ) this exact outcome if they stuck with changing the message in July. Worryingly they are telling the government what’s going to happen if other things don’t change, and all but saying I wonder if we will be listened to this time.

In 2 weeks time we will be at the point of no return as people ( and uni campuses ) go out for one last big party.  

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We live outside Birmingham so won’t be part of their lockdown ( although of course we can visit none of our relatives and friends that live in Birmingham ). We have just driven through Birmingham and wish we had videoed some of what we saw. Full buses with about 50 % in face masks, kids leaving school congregating in large numbers ( way over 30 ), hugging and absolutely no social distancing. We are being told about schools all over being closed with outbreaks.
This is probably more worrying than the initial outbreak as there won’t be another lockdown and unlike last time this means there will be no means of stopping it.

Worrying times.

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6 minutes ago, sonyc said:

She is someone who simply wants the economy opened up fully and likens C19 with flu. There is an argument there but unsure if I sign up to it fully. Yet, for sure, I can see an argument for that kind of resource going towards folk in waiting lists, for scans etc.

I'm like you perhaps, you'll be thinking that the government (Hancock) picks out big numbers and announces them before capacity is built. It is rather a distraction. I'm a bit old fashioned. Even in my job before when we had really good news to announce I was less keen on crowing about it. These days this lot seem to use phrases like 'world beating' when it's not even been in operation long. They need to over-perform first.

We can speculate for hours about the easing of lockdown despite the historical evidence that these types of virus don't go away.

Forget any systems. forget testing. What caused the downturn was lockdown and the overall attitude of the UK public. That is no longer the case and the predictions are correct.

In fact there was never anything to crow about. We can leave that to Trump.

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Here’s a stat for Ricardo. Although the government are saying the R rate is between 1 and 1.2 the experts are saying it’s actually 1.7, according to The Evening Standard ?

Covid-19 infections 'doubling every seven to eight days' as experts fear R rate could be 1.7

 

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54 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

We can speculate for hours about the easing of lockdown despite the historical evidence that these types of virus don't go away.

Forget any systems. forget testing. What caused the downturn was lockdown and the overall attitude of the UK public. That is no longer the case and the predictions are correct.

In fact there was never anything to crow about. We can leave that to Trump.

Well, as it looks like it's going to get tough again, let's hope the government makes a better fist of managing and communicating.

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1 hour ago, Well b back said:

Oxford and City college London predicted ( to the government ) this exact outcome if they stuck with changing the message in July. Worryingly they are telling the government what’s going to happen if other things don’t change, and all but saying I wonder if we will be listened to this time.

In 2 weeks time we will be at the point of no return as people ( and uni campuses ) go out for one last big party.  

I knew people had short memories but it’s been fascinating to watch how quickly something even as horrific as what was happening earlier in the year seems to have been wiped from the consciousness of so many. I would never have believed it but now we know how shallow our collective concern and memory can be. And to think people were talking  about how this pandemic may be an agent for change, there really is little hope for any global movements for change, the world will need to be burning down around our ears before we try to take real action, the big challenges we face require preemptive remedial measures, we are only capable of action when it’s too late. Feeling  depressed🙁

Edited by Van wink

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11 minutes ago, Van wink said:

I knew people had short memories but it’s been fascinating to watch how quickly something even as horrific as what was happening earlier in the year seems to have been wiped from the consciousness of so many. I would never have believed it but now we know how shallow our collective concern and memory can be. And to think people were talking  about how this pandemic may be an agent for change, there really is little hope for any global movements for change, the world will need to be burning down around our ears before we try to take real action, the big challenges we face require preemptive remedial measures, we are only capable of action when it’s too late. Feeling  depressed🙁

I was certainly one for being hopeful of some positive change. Yet, we don't seem to have much vision as a country. If we do what is it? Just to be out of Europe? That seems to be the thrust. There needs to be a far greater move towards something the whole country can get behind.

Dreaming as ever. 🤔

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27 minutes ago, sonyc said:

I was certainly one for being hopeful of some positive change. Yet, we don't seem to have much vision as a country. If we do what is it? Just to be out of Europe? That seems to be the thrust. There needs to be a far greater move towards something the whole country can get behind.

Dreaming as ever. 🤔

The nation had the chance to observe life during lockdown and what it must be like to live in many other countries where freedoms are like hens teeth.

We have no leadership but I really believed we as a people would come together as one. It may hopefully happen. Or start to happen. I await with an open mind.

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8 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

The nation had the chance to observe life during lockdown and what it must be like to live in many other countries where freedoms are like hens teeth.

We have no leadership but I really believed we as a people would come together as one. It may hopefully happen. Or start to happen. I await with an open mind.

People have come together at a community level. Many good examples of that. I'm sure there are in Cornwall. 

The freedoms / together as a nation theme I still believe was very damaged by Cummings. And it appears he is having a major influence on how the government is behaving since. One day we will get to know a lot more.

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15 minutes ago, sonyc said:

People have come together at a community level. Many good examples of that. I'm sure there are in Cornwall. 

The freedoms / together as a nation theme I still believe was very damaged by Cummings. And it appears he is having a major influence on how the government is behaving since. One day we will get to know a lot more.

Hi sonyc

I know you and Van wink read our other related thread and isn’t amazing how the Oxford and London predictions if he changed those words to be aware were ?. The horrifying thing is what they are predicting now if the government don’t start acting on their latest findings. According to their latest thoughts the first wave is going to be a drop in the ocean. In a couple of weeks time when hospital numbers start to increase big they will be telling us that the virus is just as deadly as it was before, but they should have been doing this 3 weeks ago. There are now 800 in hospital so unless treatments are really working the daily death rate will soon be at 100 a day again.

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1 hour ago, Van wink said:

I knew people had short memories but it’s been fascinating to watch how quickly something even as horrific as what was happening earlier in the year seems to have been wiped from the consciousness of so many. 

The novelty wore off and when it did we stopped caring.

 

Edited by Barbe bleu
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36 minutes ago, sonyc said:

People have come together at a community level. Many good examples of that. I'm sure there are in Cornwall. 

The freedoms / together as a nation theme I still believe was very damaged by Cummings. And it appears he is having a major influence on how the government is behaving since. One day we will get to know a lot more.

We did come together but how long did it last? Cummings was and is appalling, but it’s lazy and completely missing the point to blame the way we have behaved solely on him, if it was that simple I wouldn’t be feeling so fed up.

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14 minutes ago, Well b back said:

 the daily death rate will soon be at 100 a day again.

Quite possibly.   In the early days the conparison was italy and how many days behind we were.   Is it now going to be France?  They will be knocking at the ton up door in a few days.

This was always going to be a long term issue and the idea that 2 weeks of lockdown will kill off every particle on earth was never realistic unfortunately.

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7 minutes ago, Van wink said:

We did come together but how long did it last? Cummings was and is appalling, but it’s lazy and completely missing the point to blame the way we have behaved solely on him, if it was that simple I wouldn’t be feeling so fed up.

But I'm not blaming the way people have behaved completely on him. Where did I say that? 

I believe government sets the standard, like bosses do at organisations. Cultures are often led from the top. That said, people have a great responsibility for themselves. Many non government supporters still do the right thing (sometimes in spite or to compensate for poor messaging). But...some people need leading.

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I really cannot believe that the latest measure means anything.

Once again we are behind France and Spain but can see what is happening.

I walked past the local school a couple of mornings ago, on the other side, and the measures put in place for children going through the gates are chaotic.

Because of the stupidity of someone from miles away wanting their child to go to this respected school, half walk to school, but crucially half are driven.

So rather than stagger class starting times, all arrive at once. And parents are without masks, half the mammajammas smoking in public creating unwanted exhalation. And those driving have to get out and escort their child.

I would like to know what the head's qualifications are. Certainly not common sense.

Infant and Junior schools, where the children need parents to take them to school, are not going to suffer educationally if they are closed again.

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28 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Hi sonyc

I know you and Van wink read our other related thread and isn’t amazing how the Oxford and London predictions if he changed those words to be aware were ?. The horrifying thing is what they are predicting now if the government don’t start acting on their latest findings. According to their latest thoughts the first wave is going to be a drop in the ocean. In a couple of weeks time when hospital numbers start to increase big they will be telling us that the virus is just as deadly as it was before, but they should have been doing this 3 weeks ago. There are now 800 in hospital so unless treatments are really working the daily death rate will soon be at 100 a day again.

It's a great worry yes. Whitty stated we have a very difficult winter ahead didn't he? It seems this thing is just there, all the time and simply needs people to act as courriers. And the degree of flaunting of social distancing by certain communities (and I mean here types of social community ...such as urban, age-related etc) is providing a fertile ground. 

I have been critical of the messaging for sure. In reality, I reckon whatever government was in power, would struggle. I am sure of that. It doesn't help that we have this particular government which hasn't been very strong on the governing side or collaborative on tge community health side. I think the latter is purely ideological. 

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2 minutes ago, sonyc said:

It's a great worry yes. Whitty stated we have a very difficult winter ahead didn't he? It seems this thing is just there, all the time and simply needs people to act as courriers. And the degree of flaunting of social distancing by certain communities (and I mean here types of social community ...such as urban, age-related etc) is providing a fertile ground. 

I have been critical of the messaging for sure. In reality, I reckon whatever government was in power, would struggle. I am sure of that. It doesn't help that we have this particular government which hasn't been very strong on the governing side or collaborative on tge community health side. I think the latter is purely ideological. 

Yes they have been very weak. They seem to just follow the minority who often shout louder. There is a good example of this right now where as when they announced the schools were reopening they said if numbers start to increase rapidly, to keep the schools open, they will close the pubs. We are in this situation and the pubs are still open. Seems they are scared. 
 

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1 minute ago, Well b back said:

Yes they have been very weak. They seem to just follow the minority who often shout louder. There is a good example of this right now where as when they announced the schools were reopening they said if numbers start to increase rapidly, to keep the schools open, they will close the pubs. We are in this situation and the pubs are still open. Seems they are scared. 
 

There is a lot of in-house wrangling. Some Conservatives are canvassing for the economy and business to remain open. Johnson himself had the virus and is likely to be more cautious knowing about the virus first hand. It was telling hearing that snippet that the latest Rule of 6 for some Tories was a typical "Labour type thing to do". It is indeed odd to have pubs open I agree ....and gyms have just opened too!

Up where I live many pubs have created outdoor situations converting car parks etc. So there may be creative solutions.

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1 minute ago, Well b back said:

Yes they have been very weak. They seem to just follow the minority who often shout louder. There is a good example of this right now where as when they announced the schools were reopening they said if numbers start to increase rapidly, to keep the schools open, they will close the pubs. We are in this situation and the pubs are still open. Seems they are scared. 
 

I just hate to be proved right again on this but this upwelling in Covid goes back to August, and the eat out to get Covid mantra. The sad fact is that where I agree with the latest restrictions they are as ever purely reactive to the growing menace. The government never seems to get ahead and stay ahead of the curve. The current restrctions are unlikely to reverse but just slow the rate of acceleration with more draconian restrctions to inevitably follow.

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29 minutes ago, sonyc said:

But I'm not blaming the way people have behaved completely on him. Where did I say that? 

I believe government sets the standard, like bosses do at organisations. Cultures are often led from the top. That said, people have a great responsibility for themselves. Many non government supporters still do the right thing (sometimes in spite or to compensate for poor messaging). But...some people need leading.

Yeh ok, over reacted, apology. I’m just feeling so peed off atm, it’s been so obvious what’s been coming yet I have been watching people coming to the North Norfolk coast all summer and behaving as if there had been no pandemic and everything was fine and I hear people on radio phone ins etc using Cummings as an excuse for this. He has a huge culpability but it’s to easy to blame him for ones own failure to behave. 

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23 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Yeh ok, over reacted, apology. I’m just feeling so peed off atm, it’s been so obvious what’s been coming yet I have been watching people coming to the North Norfolk coast all summer and behaving as if there had been no pandemic and everything was fine and I hear people on radio phone ins etc using Cummings as an excuse for this. He has a huge culpability but it’s to easy to blame him for ones own failure to behave. 

Yep 5 weeks ago they could have stopped this, to late now, but maybe that’s what they want ?

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38 minutes ago, sonyc said:

There is a lot of in-house wrangling. Some Conservatives are canvassing for the economy and business to remain open. Johnson himself had the virus and is likely to be more cautious knowing about the virus first hand. It was telling hearing that snippet that the latest Rule of 6 for some Tories was a typical "Labour type thing to do". It is indeed odd to have pubs open I agree ....and gyms have just opened too!

Up where I live many pubs have created outdoor situations converting car parks etc. So there may be creative solutions.

We don’t come under Birmingham Council, but live in the area so we are not subject to the extra measures to come next week. However the measures are to begin on Tuesday, which has given the green light to the City to have one mass party tonight and tomorrow night. This again as the rule of 6 gives people an extra couple of days for the virus to gain control, why were the new rules not immediate ? Especially as they go through a weekend with good weather. If 50 people go into Birmingham tonight with the virus, if the latest estimates are right they will spread it to 100 more. Scary stuff

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45 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I just hate to be proved right again on this but this upwelling in Covid goes back to August, and the eat out to get Covid mantra. The sad fact is that where I agree with the latest restrictions they are as ever purely reactive to the growing menace. The government never seems to get ahead and stay ahead of the curve. The current restrctions are unlikely to reverse but just slow the rate of acceleration with more draconian restrctions to inevitably follow.

Indeed

Oxford and London have both said Uni courses should be online to begin with and have made the government aware of the consequences of a full reopening.

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7 minutes ago, Well b back said:

We don’t come under Birmingham Council, but live in the area so we are not subject to the extra measures to come next week. However the measures are to begin on Tuesday, which has given the green light to the City to have one mass party tonight and tomorrow night. This again as the rule of 6 gives people an extra couple of days for the virus to gain control, why were the new rules not immediate ? Especially as they go through a weekend with good weather. If 50 people go into Birmingham tonight with the virus, if the latest estimates are right they will spread it to 100 more. Scary stuff

Yep it’s  exactly the same as they did before, absolutely clueless.

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