Corona Virus main thread

[How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,187]

17 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Tricky one this i feel.    14 days of quarantine should mean you are clear of anything you picked up by the time you get out again and no risk of false negatives if testing is not involved.

But against this the travel Industry (though not the environment) does need us to travel if it is going to keep us employed and testing as an alternative to quarantine might encourage us to do   

I guess what really matters is how observant of rules we all are. That is the great unknown.

 

 

if you test again at 5 days or so, any false negatives should be revealed. No need for a 14 day quarantine (assuming 2nd test is negative)

[Barbe bleu 823]

11 minutes ago, How I Wrote Elastic Man said:

if you test again at 5 days or so, any false negatives should be revealed. No need for a 14 day quarantine (assuming 2nd test is negative)

I guess most would be.  My recollection is that the tests were around 85% sensitive.   Quick sums by me reveals ( i think) that around 1 in 50  carriers would have two false negatives (assuming they did not catch it on the plane back).   2% of a very low number is not a big issue but 2% could be a massive problem if people are coming back from the worst hit places where lots of people are carriers.

Equally, I am not sure how many people actually do the full 14 days.  The less observant we are the more testing becomes necessary.

 

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Some testing being moved from Cornwall to other areas where spikes are occurring.

Cornwall small enough for us all to have antibody tests which would provide more important information than a test to say you haven't got it- at the moment.

[How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,187]

12 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

I guess most would be.  My recollection is that the tests were around 85% sensitive.   Quick sums by me reveals ( i think) that around 1 in 50  carriers would have two false negatives (assuming they did not catch it on the plane back).   2% of a very low number is not a big issue but 2% could be a massive problem if people are coming back from the worst hit places where lots of people are carriers.

Equally, I am not sure how many people actually do the full 14 days.  The less observant we are the more testing becomes necessary.

 

There is always the possibility of a few carriers being missed I guess. I think it´s something society will have to get used to if it wants to try to carry on as near normal as possible

Regarding people not doing a full 14 days, you only have to look at the guy in Jools´s avatar to see the proof of that

[ricardo 7,385]

Took a short bike ride into the city centre this lunchtime (London St and The Walk area). Footfall seemed about 80-90% normal. Mask wearing near enough 100% in shops and around 25% outside.

[Rock The Boat 1,330]

On 03/09/2020 at 07:29, T said:

Why would you not take an off the shelf app already available from Germany unless you cared more about nationalism than lives and jobs. The crass stupidity of nationalist exceptionalism being prioritised over the benefits of International cooperation. Germany and the UK had local testing and tracing. Germany built on what they had while UK was obsessed with creating their central privatised model from scratch. Pragmatism versus Brexit boy ideology. Competence over incompetence.
 

Anither classic example Germany invested in expanding its ventilator manufacturers while the UK government ignored theirs and went to a vacuum cleaner manufacturer. The Brexit government is a sad joke. 

Ventilators are not the answer. from today;s Telegraph

 

Death rates among seriously ill Covid-19 patients dropped sharply as doctors rejected the use of mechanical ventilators, analysis has found.

The chances of dying in an intensive care unit (ICU) went from 43 per cent before the pandemic peaked to 34 per cent in the period after.

In a report yesterday, the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre said that no new drugs nor changes to clinical guidelines were introduced in that period that could account for the improvement. However, the use of mechanical ventilators fell dramatically.

Before the peak in admissions on April 1, 75.9 per cent of Covid-19 patients were intubated within 24 hours of getting to an ICU, a proportion which fell to 44.1 per cent after the peak.

Meanwhile, the proportion of ICU patients put on a ventilator at any point dropped 22 percentage points to 61 per cent either side of the peak.

 

[Rock The Boat 1,330]

18 hours ago, Herman said:

A proper holiday is getting out of Hertfordshire for a while. North Norfolk would be great. Suffolk or South Coast as well.

I'd love to buy you a beer, Herman. I imagine you're a convivial chap over a pint.

Catch is you'd have to buy a pint for each of my various identities. You know, RTB, Jools, Bagster, VW, Ben10 (who he?), BB, Madame Butterfly, Lady Jane Grey, Clucky Nora, etc.

[ricardo 7,385]

12 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

I'd love to buy you a beer, Herman. I imagine you're a convivial chap over a pint.

Catch is you'd have to buy a pint for each of my various identities. You know, RTB, Jools, Bagster, VW, Ben10 (who he?), BB, Madame Butterfly, Lady Jane Grey, Clucky Nora, etc.

Nightfly would also like a packet of salt n vinegar crisps.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

1 hour ago, ricardo said:

Nightfly would also like a packet of salt n vinegar crisps.

Nuts!

[Van wink 2,994]

3 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Nuts!

No, nuts is the one thing that he's still looking for 😄

In fact Billy has No Balls at All

 

Edited September 5, 2020 by Van wink

[Bill 1,788]

13 minutes ago, Van wink said:

No, nuts is the one thing that he's still looking for 😄

In fact Billy has No Balls at All

 

Good to see you so engrossed in the game 🙄

shame Ifollow is not showing video outside the UK (Rennes)

[Van wink 2,994]

1 minute ago, Bill said:

Good to see you so engrossed in the game 🙄

shame Ifollow is not showing video outside the UK (Rennes)

afternoon Jaffa

[ricardo 7,385]

UK a very slight downturn today

1813 - 12

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

 yesterdays major European countries.

Italy   1733 - 11

France 8975 - 18

Spain   10476 - 184

Germany 1467 - 2

 

France and Spain, oh dear.

[Van wink 2,994]

2 minutes ago, ricardo said:

UK a very slight downturn today

1813 - 12

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

 yesterdays major European countries.

Italy   1733 - 11

France 8975 - 18

Spain   10476 - 184

Germany 1467 - 2

 

France and Spain, oh dear.

France and Spain, oh dear indeed. 

[Van wink 2,994]

 

VIDEO

Virus shifts to young as lockdown fears ease

Call for normality with most cases in under-40s

 

Chris Smyth, Whitehall Editor | Sam Joiner, Head of Data | Steven Swinford, Deputy Political Editor

Saturday September 05 2020, 12.01am, The Times

Pupils returning for the new academic year are very unlikely to die from Covid-19

KIRSTY WIGGLESWORTH/AP

Most confirmed coronavirus cases are now in younger people in an “extraordinary” shift that has raised hopes that deaths can be kept low without lockdowns.

Two thirds of confirmed infections are in the under-40s while numbers in older people have fallen sharply, a Times analysis of Public Health England figures reveals.

 

 

A fifth of cases are in people over 50, compared with three quarters in the spring. Cases in those over 80 account for 3 per cent of the total, down from 28 per cent in March.

 

The need for further restrictions could be reduced as many older people appear to be voluntarily shielding. This allows younger people who are less badly affected by Covid to return to work, experts suggested.

One government adviser said that a Swedish-style strategy of keeping workplaces and hospitality open while advising older people to take greater precautions could help Britain to get through the winter.

 

While the new figures can be attributed in part to increased testing in people with milder symptoms, experts said that there had been a significant shift in infection rates among younger people as they took advantage of lockdown easing. The peak age range for infections is now in the 20s, having been in the 80s until early June when outbreaks in care homes and hospitals during the start of the pandemic began to be restricted.

Mark Woolhouse of the University of Edinburgh, who sits on the government’s SPI-M modelling group, said that “the epidemic is starting to divide” by age. “There are hints from the behavioural data that younger adults are embracing the exit from lockdown more enthusiastically than older people,” he said, suggesting that older adults were “shielding themselves”.

 

Ministers have cautioned against plans in which individuals would be asked to shield to different degrees based on their age. They are concerned that if infections rise in the young they will spill over to more vulnerable people eventually.

However, Professor Woolhouse argued: “People have worked out who’s at risk and they’re acting on it. Government and local authorities may not need to be that authoritarian about this. Maybe what people need is advice. It’s possible that would be enough to damp down many local outbreaks.”

He said that “we don’t have to panic now and maybe we can be more measured in our response”, including introducing a policy of protecting older people while allowing others to continue normal life. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported yesterday that infection rates were flat, which could be because they were falling in the elderly while rising in the young. Matt Hancock, the health secretary, said that the ONS data was a reassuring sign that the government’s measures were “supporting the country to safely return to normal”.

Mr Hancock is cautious about relying on keeping cases among the under-40s, after France reported a rise in hospital admissions weeks after cases in the young increased. “It’s obviously good news that we are not seeing hospitalisations but too early to be drawing policy conclusions,” a source said.

Last week 2,042 cases were confirmed in people in their twenties, more than ten times the number among over-80s. While cases are lower in all ages than in the spring, they are still falling in the elderly while they started rising in younger people from July.

Sir David Spiegelhalter, professor of public understanding of risk at the University of Cambridge, said that the change in age profile in infections was “quite extraordinary”. He said that the age shift was “affected by testing availability, but also a shift in who is infected”. He added: “The elderly and frail seem to be far better protected than they were at the start of the epidemic, but they need to be able to get their freedom back.”

[Tetteys Jig 830]

5 hours ago, Van wink said:

France and Spain, oh dear indeed. 

184 daily deaths reported in Spain?! Whats with their odd reporting? Their number seems to jump around like mad

[sonyc 5,516]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/05/covid-19-could-be-endemic-in-deprived-parts-of-england?

Northern focus here.

 

Professor John Wright: Partial lifting of lockdown doesn't help | Bradford Telegraph and Argus 

www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/18700820.professor-john-wright-partial-lifting-lockdown-doesnt-help/https://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/18700820.professor-john-wright-partial-lifting-lockdown-doesnt-help/

 

 

[ricardo 7,385]

Hefty increase for UK today.

2988 - 2

Incomplete numbers from Europe yesterday

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Italy   1695 - 16

France 8550 -  ?

Spain   ? - ?

Germany 775 - ?

[Van wink 2,994]

8 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Hefty increase for UK today.

2988 - 2

Incomplete numbers from Europe yesterday

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Italy   1695 - 16

France 8550 -  ?

Spain   ? - ?

Germany 775 - ?

No surprises there, stay safe.

[ricardo 7,385]

Hospital admissions and number of inpatients still only slightly above the minimum.

[Van wink 2,994]

4 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Hospital admissions and number of inpatients still only slightly above the minimum.

My view is this will continue to circulate within the younger age groups for 4 or 5 generations and then will start appearing in the more vulnerable groups with the associated ill health, hope I’m wrong .

[ricardo 7,385]

2 minutes ago, Van wink said:

My view is this will continue to circulate within the younger age groups for 4 or 5 generations and then will start appearing in the more vulnerable groups with the associated ill health, hope I’m wrong .

Vulnerable groups will no doubt be more cautious I expect.

[Van wink 2,994]

12 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Vulnerable groups will no doubt be more cautious I expect.

Fully agree, however I suspect there are many who are vulnerable who don’t appreciate that they are, and those that have taken risks so far may find the odds have changed as the winter progresses. My expectation is for an increase in admissions but nothing like the same admission to death ratio we have seen before prompting further questions, quite rightly, are we over reacting in the second wave.

Edited September 6, 2020 by Van wink

[Yellow Fever 3,777]

11 minutes ago, Van wink said:

My view is this will continue to circulate within the younger age groups for 4 or 5 generations and then will start appearing in the more vulnerable groups with the associated ill health, hope I’m wrong .

Yes. It will build up on the younger 'less serious' groups (take that meaning all ways) but the more vulnerable groups can run but never hide. It will sadly break through as cases build.

[ricardo 7,385]

7 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Yes. It will build up on the younger 'less serious' groups (take that meaning all ways) but the more vulnerable groups can run but never hide. It will sadly break through as cases build.

Meanwhile herd immunity builds and we inch towards a vaccine.

 

[Bill 1,788]

20 minutes ago, Van wink said:

My view is this will continue to circulate within the younger age groups for 4 or 5 generations and then will start appearing in the more vulnerable groups with the associated ill health, hope I’m wrong .

that's about one hundred years hence

I know you are not the brightest hand crank

but 4 or 5 generations  🤣

[How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,187]

Gloucestershire v Northants match abandoned

 

[ricardo 7,385]

I think most of us realised he meant virus generations i.e. 5-7 days

But funny never the less🤣

[Van wink 2,994]

34 minutes ago, Bill said:

that's about one hundred years hence

I know you are not the brightest hand crank

but 4 or 5 generations  🤣

🥱

[Van wink 2,994]

36 minutes ago, ricardo said:

I think most of us realised he meant virus generations i.e. 5-7 days

But funny never the less🤣

So obvious he’s a pro😀