Corona Virus main thread

[Herman 9,863]

Exceptional situations cause exceptional measures. It's definitely not a measure they would have ever contemplated until this disaster came along.

[Pugin 601]

22 minutes ago, Ian said:

So the furlough scheme is an example of a hard right policy? 

Mate, the furlough scheme is to maintain and protect the foundations of the economy so that as soon as possible we can return to the previous status quo. We have a government with some extreme hard right elements, and it is their policy. 

[Barbe bleu 837]

51 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

BB. Thst exactly what Z scores capture and neutralize. Standard deviations automatically take account of the seasonal variability.

Noooooo!

I instinctively agree with you but i've been pulling my hair out trying to understand this and i just cant get it. I've tried online calculators the lot but it's not going in.

I've tried to give a realistic scenario as below but cant work out how z scores really help do anything other than judge how odd the current data is.

Can you tell me the z score for the two scenarios where excess deaths is constant. 

Excess deaths is constant  at 200.

In winter the four year average deaths is 100 (200, 80, 80, 40 for each of the past 4 years representing bad flu, mild flu and two years of  average flu) 

In summer the 4 year mean is 10 (11, 10, 10, 9) 

This winter 300 people die, this summer 210 people die

If a score neutralised the variance why am I not getting the same z score?

 

Honestly its going my head in and I dont care who I bore asking this question!

[Bagster 101]

5 hours ago, Van wink said:

Is that Bills dog?

Oops just found out she didn't make it, she found it on the internet so maybe , who knows😁

[Barbe bleu 837]

21 minutes ago, Herman said:

Exceptional situations cause exceptional measures. It's definitely not a measure they would have ever contemplated until this disaster came along.

I'd say the furlough scheme is about as far from free market right wing thinking as it is possible to get.  

But as you say to judge a government by a single time limited measure during a crisis is a fairly meaningless way of judging their behaviour in less unusual circumstances.

[Bagster 101]

13 minutes ago, Pugin said:

Mate, the furlough scheme is to maintain and protect the foundations of the economy so that as soon as possible we can return to the previous status quo. We have a government with some extreme hard right elements, and it is their policy. 

Jeez

No we do not, there is nothing extreme or hard right about this conservative party!!

[Yellow Fever 3,852]

2 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Noooooo!

I instinctively agree with you but i've been pulling my hair out trying to understand this and i just cant get it. I've tried online calculators the lot but it's not going in.

I've tried to give a realistic scenario as below but cant work out how z scores really help do anything other than judge how odd the current data is.

Can you tell me the z score for the two scenarios where excess deaths is constant. 

Excess deaths is constant  at 200.

In winter the four year average deaths is 100 (200, 80, 80, 40 for each of the past 4 years representing bad flu, mild flu and two years of  average flu) 

In summer the 4 year mean is 10 (11, 10, 10, 9) 

This winter 300 people die, this summer 210 people die

If a score neutralised the variance why am I not getting the same z score?

 

Honestly its going my head in and I dont care who I bore asking this question!

I will look at this tomorrow in an off moment but what you need to understand is that the standard deviation is in the denominator of the Z score. The sd will be sd of the monthly means (of typical years) in this case of excess deaths. In winters there will be some bad and good flu seasons and hence the sd will be higher in these months than the quieter summer months and hence reduce the significance of an absolute increase in winter ... you need more deaths to get say above 3 sd (99% confidence) if the sd is naturally higher.

[City 2nd 191]

11 minutes ago, Pugin said:

Mate, the furlough scheme is to maintain and protect the foundations of the economy so that as soon as possible we can return to the previous status quo. We have a government with some extreme hard right elements, and it is their policy. 

I don’t think anyone can suggest a return to what was the previous status quo whether we have a populist, hard right, left wing or whatever Govt. The current policy would have been forced on whomever was in power, and the furlough scheme isn’t just to protect the economy,  it’s there to protect people, children, families and jobs, and hopefully keep unemployment and destitution, which millions would face should the policy not have been brought in. 

[Yellow Fever 3,852]

18 minutes ago, City 2nd said:

I don’t think anyone can suggest a return to what was the previous status quo whether we have a populist, hard right, left wing or whatever Govt. The current policy would have been forced on whomever was in power, and the furlough scheme isn’t just to protect the economy,  it’s there to protect people, children, families and jobs, and hopefully keep unemployment and destitution, which millions would face should the policy not have been brought in. 

Yes. I think Sunak has been forced by events to become a socialist. John McDonnell is proud of him. 

[Yellow Fever 3,852]

57 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Noooooo!

I instinctively agree with you but i've been pulling my hair out trying to understand this and i just cant get it. I've tried online calculators the lot but it's not going in.

I've tried to give a realistic scenario as below but cant work out how z scores really help do anything other than judge how odd the current data is.

Can you tell me the z score for the two scenarios where excess deaths is constant. 

Excess deaths is constant  at 200.

In winter the four year average deaths is 100 (200, 80, 80, 40 for each of the past 4 years representing bad flu, mild flu and two years of  average flu) 

In summer the 4 year mean is 10 (11, 10, 10, 9) 

This winter 300 people die, this summer 210 people die

If a score neutralised the variance why am I not getting the same z score?

 

Honestly its going my head in and I dont care who I bore asking this question!

Bb

Winter. Mean 100 sd 60. Z would be (300 - 100) / 60 = 3.33 (significant)

Summer. Mean 10 sd 0.7. Z would be (210 - 10) / 0.7 = 285 (wow)

Clearly winter is more in the bounds of random chance than summer !

The z scores should be very very different.

No more maths tonight. I'm too old but I hope you sleep well.

😁

As the saying goes summer result is so far off the bell curve it wouldn't hear it ringing!

Edited May 12, 2020 by Yellow Fever

[Icecream Snow 762]

12 hours ago, Bagster said:

Well I'll get Boris to explain it to you slowly then T

Boris is many things, but I wouldn't include clear communicator as one of them.

[T 190]

 

[Mark .Y. 352]

11 hours ago, Bill said:

So, I never actually said those words - just a matter of how you want to spin them

As previously pointed out to you - your words meant exactly the same, no matter how you try and spin things now

Only one other name claimed I was an alcoholic

That may be true but I certainly didn't say you were an alcoholic, your inference is clearly that I did - but that is just a matter of how you are trying to spin words

And I have never posted about Tuesday figures, you can check - but I did put that up, as I knew there was one poster who always tries to lie his way out

There is no way I am going to waste my time looking back through the pages to find comments. You may not specifically have addressed Tuesday's figures but you have previously said something along the lines of "the number of deaths has gone up again today"

And as pointed out you have not addressed the point, merely spouted out some old guff instead

As I pointed out, I was addressing one specific point. I didn't spout any old guff, I simply explained the facts to you as you seemed unable to grasp them.

So, " if it looks like a duck, walks like a duck..... " maybe it's not only me with a bill .... it would seem 😂

It may not be only you with a bill, I guess you may well have other user names on here, I really don't care. I don't have any others, only ever had this one in all the years I've been reading the forum.

So, if it looks like a pompous old fool with a hugely overblown opinion of his own self-importance - then yes, it likely has a bill or could be called bill.

These are my last words on the subject, I won't reply again to your inane waffling. I will leave others to decide who is right and who is wrong about all this. 

 

[king canary 7,705]

10 hours ago, Bagster said:

Jeez

No we do not, there is nothing extreme or hard right about this conservative party!!

There are some elements I'd suggest are quite far to the right, especially economically.

However, I'd argue this Government is actually a bit less right wing than the one under May, which was reliant on DUP and ERG support to get anything done.

[Bill 1,788]

10 hours ago, Bagster said:

"Mate, the furlough scheme is to maintain and protect the foundations of the economy so that as soon as possible we can return to the previous status quo. We have a government with some extreme hard right elements, and it is their policy.  "

No we do not, there is nothing extreme or hard right about this conservative party!!

replying to what has not been said .......hmmmm

and it is government not party that is spoke of

and 'some extreme hard right elements' - not the party as a whole

though the curious might wonder how someone who claims to live in France, knows anything about "this conservative party"

 

and I see hand crank has made his first post of the day (check previous times) only this time as Mark Y

 

ps be on your guard cranky, in case that naughty Bill catches you out again 🦆

Edited May 13, 2020 by Bill

[ricardo 7,445]

Another Groundhog day dawns

[sonyc 5,541]

The days all merge into one. I thought it was the weekend! 

Damn....only Wednesday

[dylanisabaddog 5,062]

10 hours ago, Bagster said:

Jeez

No we do not, there is nothing extreme or hard right about this conservative party!!

Have you heard of Windrush? 

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/mar/19/windrush-report-condemns-home-office-ignorance-and-thoughtlessness

[dylanisabaddog 5,062]

1 minute ago, sonyc said:

The days all merge into one. I thought it was the weekend! 

Damn....only Wednesday

Only 3 days till we can watch German footballers looking the other way when they tackle each other in an empty stadium. 

[Bill 1,788]

6 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Another Groundhog day dawns

not for me, I'm off out on la be cee  clette later - along the coast

(but good to see Ian log in and react so quickly😅)

hopefully there won't be too many cars around as it can be a bit hairy between Kelling and Cley

but it'll be good to get a bit of fresh air, and a long exercise

 

 

 

[Yellow Fever 3,852]

47 minutes ago, king canary said:

There are some elements I'd suggest are quite far to the right, especially economically.

However, I'd argue this Government is actually a bit less right wing than the one under May, which was reliant on DUP and ERG support to get anything done.

 

So far based on its actions I wouldn't say its left, right or even populist - just thick.

[Van wink 2,994]

14 minutes ago, Bill said:

not for me, I'm off out on la be cee  clette later - along the coast

(but good to see Ian log in and react so quickly😅)

hopefully there won't be too many cars around as it can be a bit hairy between Kelling and Cley

but it'll be good to get a bit of fresh air, and a long exercise

 

 

 

Don’t forget your mask!

[Mark .Y. 352]

59 minutes ago, Bill said:

replying to what has not been said .......hmmmm

and it is government not party that is spoke of

and 'some extreme hard right elements' - not the party as a whole

though the curious might wonder how someone who claims to live in France, knows anything about "this conservative party"

 

and I see hand crank has made his first post of the day (check previous times) only this time as Mark Y

 

ps be on your guard cranky, in case that naughty Bill catches you out again 🦆

I'll never learn will I, trying to tell you something is like banging your head against the wall.

I am nobody else, I joined the forum in 2005 as Mark .Y. and have been me ever since.

I think you can check that by looking at my profile ??

If you can, and you bother to do it, your forthcoming apology will be gracefully accepted.

[PurpleCanary 5,604]

5 minutes ago, Mark .Y. said:

I'll never learn will I, trying to tell you something is like banging your head against the wall.

I am nobody else, I joined the forum in 2005 as Mark .Y. and have been me ever since.

I think you can check that by looking at my profile ??

If you can, and you bother to do it, your forthcoming apology will be gracefully accepted.

You wouldn't listen, would you?! Ignored all the expert advice from the old hands. Thought you knew better. And have just made rookie mistake after rookie mistake...😂

[sonyc 5,541]

Change your profile name Mark to "Mark Yes, me"?

Edited May 13, 2020 by sonyc

[Bill 1,788]

25 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Don’t forget your mask!

we  both have one, though mine is a bit battered after two halloweens - but should suffice if we see any naughty pathogens

I also have a half used jar of garlic paste as back up

It will be great to be on the road as I usually head down from Sheringham to Wey'bun over the golf course  - then back via the other side of the rail line, through the woods, then the park

I will keep a track of the R rate - though it might be the r se ache that is of concern as the seat has a slight spike sticking up at the side,

a tout a l'heure

 

 

 

 

 

 

[TIL 1010 4,826]

18 minutes ago, Mark .Y. said:

 

If you can, and you bother to do it, your forthcoming apology will be gracefully accepted.

Hell will freeze over first mate but it looks like a day of peaceful discussion and debate as he has gone out. Tonight i expect the liars and multiple account holders will be outed though.

[Mark .Y. 352]

24 minutes ago, PurpleCanary said:

You wouldn't listen, would you?! Ignored all the expert advice from the old hands. Thought you knew better. And have just made rookie mistake after rookie mistake...😂

I know, I know........ but in a slightly masochistic way, I think I might be enjoying it 😂

[Mark .Y. 352]

24 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Change your profile name Mark to "Mark Yes, me"?

I guess I could sonyc..........but that would play into his hands........maybe I'll change it to Hind Cronk  😉

 

[Mark .Y. 352]

Anyway, maybe just a glimmer of good news ??................

"No country had yet seen an actual second wave, just a slight increase in R-numbers. The knowledge that we have today, I find it very unlikely that we’ll see a second wave," Kare Molbak, Denmark's state epidemiologist.

Edited May 13, 2020 by Mark .Y.