Corona Virus main thread

[Van wink 2,994]

1 minute ago, T said:

7 minutes ago, sonyc said:

University of Sussex study...public transport as main vector?https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-commuters-transport-train-bus-lockdown-study-a9512696.html

 

That’s an interesting report,  must admit my main concern about opening up too soon (as I see it ) was the increased social contact, but undoubtedly the transport issue is massive. For my sins having to work in London from time to time I walk whenever I can , even before the pandemic, and certainly would now if I had to go back in again. Masks are clearly going to help but it really is a massive problem. Community infection numbers are far too high atm to realease.

[......and Smith must score. 1,345]

36 minutes ago, Herman said:

I've had the roads to myself for weeks so have got very complacent, hence a near incident this morning. 😲

Relax, it’s not you.........it’s all those other careless b*ggers out there. 😉

[sonyc 5,526]

10 minutes ago, Van wink said:

 

I was interested too that the potential impact of each relaxation measure had been analysed... so to see transport as #1 intuitively makes sense, yet whilst perhaps obvious, this kind of study could give more ideas on future management. I read somewhere too that its the working classes who are disproportionately affected of course, as they have less choice in getting to work (thinking London especially). Bike or walk would seem the answer and you can get quite far even in a 45 minute walk. 

[Herman 9,779]

13 minutes ago, ......and Smith must score. said:

Relax, it’s not you.........it’s all those other careless b*ggers out there. 😉

Selfish, that's what they are. Why can't they stay at home so my commute is easier. 😀

[sonyc 5,526]

23 minutes ago, Bill said:

It is the close proximity over a longer period (15 mins) that is where the danger lies - and fancy dress can do little bar re-assure those involved that they are 'doing something'.

The danger there is that such 'Harry Potter invisible to viruses' cloaks will lead to folk lowering precautionary actions.

 

23 minutes ago, Bill said:

It is the close proximity over a longer period (15 mins) that is where the danger lies - and fancy dress can do little bar re-assure those involved that they are 'doing something'.

The danger there is that such 'Harry Potter invisible to viruses' cloaks will lead to folk lowering precautionary actions.

I suspect you are right. Wasn't it less than 2m for 5 minutes that is enough for virus droplets to affect another? Vallance I believe. I'm not sure of the exposure times he quoted.  I read masks have c.9% protective effect. Again, I don't have a source.

Edited May 14, 2020 by sonyc

[Van wink 2,994]

4 minutes ago, sonyc said:

 

I suspect you are right. Wasn't it less than 2m for 5 minutes that is enough for virus droplets to affect another? 

Typically 15 mins was reported I believe,  this is of course is all based on theoretical exposures, the reality is  you can become infected in an instant if the conditions are right. 

[Bill 1,788]

7 minutes ago, sonyc said:

I suspect you are right. Wasn't it less than 2m for 5 minutes that is enough for virus droplets to affect another? Vallance I believe. I'm not sure of the exposure times he quoted.  

At the moment there is no exact figure, or likely to be. All that can ne known is that the more contact, the more frequent or the longer then the greater risk of infection.

It is much with neurosurgeons who point out the dangers of cycle helmet. And the position of anyone allowing a child on a bycycle without a helmet - child abuse. Forcing a child on a scooter to wear a helmet - robbing them of childhood freedom.

So it is a matter of probability, or risk depending how you see it. Allowing people to cram into crowded buses and trains will undoubtedly increase the risk and therefore cause a higher infection rate, and death.

The question that arises from that is what is acceptable, and who decides. It won't be those at greatest risk I suspect. It will simply be a case of if the NHS can cope, then the great unwashed will have to cope.

And if someone can estimate (guess) the R number is low then the government can claim they are/were following the science. Something about as scientific as the average newspaper horoscaope.

[Bill 1,788]

Breaking news

"A coronavirus vaccine could be ready for approval in a year’s time in an “optimistic scenario”, the European Medicines Agency has said.

The body's head of vaccines said he had doubts over claims one could be ready by September.

Marco Cavaleri said: "For vaccines, since the development has to start from scratch ... we might look from an optimistic side in a year from now, so beginning of 2021."

More follows…"

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

12 hours ago, sonyc said:

Oh my goodness. That will signal reunification.

Then, his stance from the off was just ridiculous.

What's the betting that within just 5 years, (maybe less?), Wales will be the only one left in the union.

Yes - I suspect even Arlene is starting to take more interest in the orange stripe in the Irish flag than the fading  cross of St.Patrick within in the Union Jack. 

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

33 minutes ago, sonyc said:

I was interested too that the potential impact of each relaxation measure had been analysed... so to see transport as #1 intuitively makes sense, yet whilst perhaps obvious, this kind of study could give more ideas on future management. I read somewhere too that its the working classes who are disproportionately affected of course, as they have less choice in getting to work (thinking London especially). Bike or walk would seem the answer and you can get quite far even in a 45 minute walk. 

Everything is obvious with hindsight but I do suspect public transport is in for a very rough ride going forward especially in high density situations as in the tube and London.

That and pubs, clubs and restaurants. Perversely, I still think work-place itself is generally one of the better controlled areas.

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

14 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Everything is obvious with hindsight but I do suspect public transport is in for a very rough ride going forward especially in high density situations as in the tube and London.

That and pubs, clubs and restaurants. Perversely, I still think work-place itself is generally one of the better controlled areas.

 

Just saw that 'Konectbus' is now withdrawing a lot of services in Norwich. - EDP

Edited May 14, 2020 by Yellow Fever

[Mark .Y. 352]

12 hours ago, Surfer said:

Meanwhile, based on anti-body tests, it's been estimated that only 5% of the Spanish population has been exposed to CoronaVirus, and this is 10x the number of positive test confirmed cases. I'm not sure if that is good, or bad, news. But it presumably puts to bed any idea of obtaining herd immunity any time soon. 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-spain-idUSKBN22P1IK?taid=5ebc6de16e6c390001c578f1&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

p.s. Spanish borders will stay closed until July but when they reopen it will only be for Schengen Area countries, which excludes the UK, so anyone planning on having a holiday in Spain this year - tough luck. 

Just been chatting with my mate who lives in Spain, I have a particular vested interest as I have an apartment out there. He says that there is already talk of the Tourist Board putting pressure on the government to allow UK tourists back in as they make up a relatively large percentage of Spain's tourist income. Apparently, they will use the fact that the UK has a reciprocal "non-quarantine" agreement with France to back up their case. 

Can't imagine for a minute that the Spanish Government will immediately do a u-turn but maybe in  1-2 months time if case numbers in the UK and Spain are low, then it may reconsider............... I bloody hope so 🙂

   

[Bill 1,788]

9 minutes ago, Mark .Y. said:

Just been chatting with my mate who lives in Spain, I have a particular vested interest as I have an apartment out there. He says that there is already talk of the Tourist Board putting pressure on the government to allow UK tourists back in as they make up a relatively large percentage of Spain's tourist income. Apparently, they will use the fact that the UK has a reciprocal "non-quarantine" agreement with France to back up their case. 

Can't imagine for a minute that the Spanish Government will immediately do a u-turn but maybe in  1-2 months time if case numbers in the UK and Spain are low, then it may reconsider............... I bloody hope so 🙂

   

British tourists are allowed in, as

“From 15 May, all new international arrivals entering Spain, including Spanish nationals and residents, will be required to self-isolate in their residence or hotel for a period of 14 days."

Odd that someone who claims to own property in Spain didn't know that, or that fact didn't crop up in the conversation

Still, there's always West Runton beach I suppose 😉

[king canary 7,609]

1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

Everything is obvious with hindsight but I do suspect public transport is in for a very rough ride going forward especially in high density situations as in the tube and London.

That and pubs, clubs and restaurants. Perversely, I still think work-place itself is generally one of the better controlled areas.

My work is split across two locations- an office in London and one in Harlow. We could likely sociall distance very easily in both if my company decided to send us back in. However I couldn't do so on my way in to London (train then tube) but could for Harlow (solo car journey).

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

1 minute ago, king canary said:

My work is split across two locations- an office in London and one in Harlow. We could likely sociall distance very easily in both if my company decided to send us back in. However I couldn't do so on my way in to London (train then tube) but could for Harlow (solo car journey).

Yes - This might actually be a boon for smaller cities - those with good private transport (be that car or bike) as I suspect many a large office in London (or elsewhere) will be wondering why they are there - or at least asking the question. High rents, high costs, high salaries - can you work from home? - Can we downsize?  - Can we move somewhere cheaper and easier to get too?

[Barbe bleu 827]

12 hours ago, Surfer said:

Meanwhile, based on anti-body tests, it's been estimated that only 5% of the Spanish population has been exposed to CoronaVirus, and this is 10x the number of positive test confirmed cases. I'm not sure if that is good, or bad, news. But it presumably puts to bed any idea of obtaining herd immunity

Well obviously the lower the number the worse it is every right minded person want the infection rate to be as high as possible.

5% is disappointing but some hope in the other figures (11.3% in Madrid, 20% in NYC) as these might be a better comparison with at least the big cities here.  I'd guess 20% would put an huge dent in the virus' ability to move through the population.

Spain is interesting but I guess everyone really wants to know what has happened in Sweden.

 

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

38 minutes ago, Mark .Y. said:

Just been chatting with my mate who lives in Spain, I have a particular vested interest as I have an apartment out there. He says that there is already talk of the Tourist Board putting pressure on the government to allow UK tourists back in as they make up a relatively large percentage of Spain's tourist income. Apparently, they will use the fact that the UK has a reciprocal "non-quarantine" agreement with France to back up their case. 

Can't imagine for a minute that the Spanish Government will immediately do a u-turn but maybe in  1-2 months time if case numbers in the UK and Spain are low, then it may reconsider............... I bloody hope so 🙂

   

Just fo fun there is an estimate form Manchester that 25% of the UK population has been exposed.

I doubt that as even the small number of limited antibody test that have been done don't indicate this to be true. 

 

More than 25% of Britons may have already had coronavirus, study claims

Josh Halliday

A new study published this week in the International Journal of Clinical Practice suggests that more than one in four people in the UK are likely to have been infected already by the coronavirus.

The study, by researchers from the University of Manchester, Salford Royal and Res Consortium, is the first to use case data from 144 local authorities on the number of people infected in their areas. From this data, the researchers calculated the R-value - the number of people infected by one person with Covid-19 – within each area.

The data shows, they say, that more than 25% of people in the UK could already have had the virus by the second half of April – higher than previously thought.

The researchers said the UK’s R value, which was over three at the start of the outbreak in the middle of March, is now “well below 1”. This tallies with data published by Public Health England, showing that the overall UK R-value is 0.7 with variation from 0.4 in London to 0.8 in Yorkshire and the north east of England.

[T 190]

Apparently the existing antibody tests used are not that reliable. I think we will have a lot better idea as the new antibody tests which are 99.8pc reliable start to be rolled out this month and then as sample groups are tracked we will have a lot better idea on the immunity. Better be nice to the Germans though as they are producing them and putting up the money to expand research and production. 

Edited May 14, 2020 by T

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

1 minute ago, T said:

Apparently the existing antibody tests used are not that reliable apparently. I think we will have a lot better idea as the new antibody tests which are 09.8pc reliable start to be rolled out this month and then as sample groups are tracked we will have a lot better idea on the immunity. 

On an individual basis yes - but they do know the false positive/negative percentages so the are likely to be statistically correct on a sample. 

[Mark .Y. 352]

23 minutes ago, Bill said:

British tourists are allowed in, as

“From 15 May, all new international arrivals entering Spain, including Spanish nationals and residents, will be required to self-isolate in their residence or hotel for a period of 14 days."

Odd that someone who claims to own property in Spain didn't know that, or that fact didn't crop up in the conversation

Still, there's always West Runton beach I suppose 😉

British tourists are NOT allowed in. The rules you quote are not for tourists.

Odd that somebody who knows everything didn't know that.

West Runton would be a hell of a way for me to go, I live in Portchester, just outside Portsmouth.

Bloque 3, Apartamento 1B42, Hacienda La Puebla, La Puebla, Murcia, 30395 is my Spanish address, please feel free to google it.

 

 

"Spanish tourism minister Reyes Maroto told local newspaper El Pais: "We have to guarantee, when international tourism opens, that the person who comes to Spain is a safe person...

"The issue of borders will be accompanied by the evolution of the health crisis.

"Therefore, I do not have the solution of when [they will be able to open].

"On how you will be able to enjoy our beaches, we are defining different scenarios.

"It is very important that the sanitary recommendations are maintained, we are going to have to internalise what we are already doing now, hand washing, social distancing ... even on the beaches.

"Those patterns will be in our day to day for a time, you cannot take a step back."

Now The Association of Hotel Chains (ACH) and the Hotel Business Federation of Majorca (FEHM) has said it is in talks with a number of international tour operators, including UK firms.

ACH president Gabriel Llobera told the Spanish press: "The objective is to be able to open the hotels in stages and whenever the demand justifies the business effort."

 

 

Will travel to Spain be allowed this summer?

Spain isn’t expected to come fully out of lockdown until the end of June, meaning tourists still have a long wait until travel to the country is allowed.

Beaches across Spain currently remain off-limits to everyone, including swimming in the sea, under the Spanish government’s state of emergency rules.

However, the government plans to reopen beaches by late June.

[Mark .Y. 352]

11 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Just fo fun there is an estimate form Manchester that 25% of the UK population has been exposed.

I doubt that as even the small number of limited antibody test that have been done don't indicate this to be true. 

 

More than 25% of Britons may have already had coronavirus, study claims

Josh Halliday

A new study published this week in the International Journal of Clinical Practice suggests that more than one in four people in the UK are likely to have been infected already by the coronavirus.

The study, by researchers from the University of Manchester, Salford Royal and Res Consortium, is the first to use case data from 144 local authorities on the number of people infected in their areas. From this data, the researchers calculated the R-value - the number of people infected by one person with Covid-19 – within each area.

The data shows, they say, that more than 25% of people in the UK could already have had the virus by the second half of April – higher than previously thought.

The researchers said the UK’s R value, which was over three at the start of the outbreak in the middle of March, is now “well below 1”. This tallies with data published by Public Health England, showing that the overall UK R-value is 0.7 with variation from 0.4 in London to 0.8 in Yorkshire and the north east of England.

Good news, if true.

[sonyc 5,526]

17 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Just fo fun there is an estimate form Manchester that 25% of the UK population has been exposed.

I doubt that as even the small number of limited antibody test that have been done don't indicate this to be true. 

 

More than 25% of Britons may have already had coronavirus, study claims

Josh Halliday

A new study published this week in the International Journal of Clinical Practice suggests that more than one in four people in the UK are likely to have been infected already by the coronavirus.

The study, by researchers from the University of Manchester, Salford Royal and Res Consortium, is the first to use case data from 144 local authorities on the number of people infected in their areas. From this data, the researchers calculated the R-value - the number of people infected by one person with Covid-19 – within each area.

The data shows, they say, that more than 25% of people in the UK could already have had the virus by the second half of April – higher than previously thought.

The researchers said the UK’s R value, which was over three at the start of the outbreak in the middle of March, is now “well below 1”. This tallies with data published by Public Health England, showing that the overall UK R-value is 0.7 with variation from 0.4 in London to 0.8 in Yorkshire and the north east of England.

Adding to your link of the study I have I suppose you'd call it a 'third hand' view from my extended part of the family. A relative has to go to a famous London hospital every month for medical treatment and a consultant (very senior in this instance) was strongly of the view that in London that some 25% of the local population has caught the virus. Anecdotal I realise, but it chimes with speaking with friends and colleagues whom many told me that 25% (and more) of their colleagues were off from their workplace during those peak weeks. And in some instances, we are talking very large companies  The antibody tests will show. Perhaps the real figure will be closer to the muted 5%.

Edited May 14, 2020 by sonyc

[T 190]

8 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

On an individual basis yes - but they do know the false positive/negative percentages so the are likely to be statistically correct on a sample. 

Agreed good point. But not sure this was done based on an a random sample of antibody tests but looks like modelling assumptions based on antigen testing ie just a modelling estimate rather than based on actual random antibody testing. 

[Bill 1,788]

4 minutes ago, Mark .Y. said:

British tourists are NOT allowed in. The rules you quote are not for tourists.

Odd that somebody who knows everything didn't know that.

I don't now everything - it just might appear that way compared to you

however you could add to what limited knowledge I do possess by explaining to us all what the difference is between a foreign traveller and a tourist

[T 190]

I’m curious what we do with the antibody tests though. I think Germany it will initially be used to help decide on getting front line workers back to work and they are looking at immunity passports. I guess also if you know the level of immunity in a community you can adjust the level of restrictions. Just not fully got my head around what you do as a result of the anti body tests. 

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

2 minutes ago, T said:

Agreed good point. But not sure this was done based on an a random sample of antibody tests but looks like modelling assumptions based on antigen testing ie just a modelling estimate rather than based on actual random antibody testing. 

Yes - As noted the Manchester 'study' is an entirely theoretical backwards modelling. It's interesting but no more than that. They all have to be ground tested against actual antibody tests as in Spain and elsewhere which generally shown 5 to 15% min to worse case.

More data needed!   

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

2 minutes ago, T said:

I’m curious what we do with the antibody tests though. I think Germany it will initially be used to help decide on getting front line workers back to work and they are looking at immunity passports. I guess also if you know the level of immunity in a community you can adjust the level of restrictions. Just not fully got my head around what you do as a result of the anti body tests. 

Absolutely needed to nail any 'herd' immunuty or second  wave 'arguments' and form policy - but that can and should (and indeed is/has been done on much smaller lab based samples - ongoing).

Mass testing - yes I suppose it would be nice to know if you had had it or not but immunity 'certificates' look like a bad idea given we do not know how long such immunity will last or to what extent - when do you need a booster 😉

 

[T 190]

2 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Absolutely needed to nail any 'herd' immunuty or second  wave 'arguments' and form policy - but that can and should (and indeed is/has been done on much smaller lab based samples - ongoing).

Mass testing - yes I suppose it would be nice to know if you had had it or not but immunity 'certificates' look like a bad idea given we do not know how long such immunity will last or to what extent - when do you need a booster 😉

 

Absolutely. So BBC reporting that don’t know when anti body testing will be available in UK. Ho hum

 

Germany already done 60k antibody tests and 3m this month and Spain reckon 5pc of the population infected based on 60000 antibody tests to date. Obviously that figure could be a lot higher in hot spots but does suggest so far no evidence to support herd immunity based on actual reliable testing as opposed to modelling guesses. 

[sonyc 5,526]

Talk going on already about giving the whole country a flu jab later this year. They are expecting a serious outbreak (overdue is the word).  

Edited May 14, 2020 by sonyc

[Mark .Y. 352]

18 minutes ago, Bill said:

I don't now everything - it just might appear that way compared to you

however you could add to what limited knowledge I do possess by explaining to us all what the difference is between a foreign traveller and a tourist

A foreign traveller is, for example, somebody entering Spain on necessary business, the quarantine also applies to Spanish people returning home. It specifically excludes those wanting to visit their second homes.

 

Can I travel to my holiday home in Spain?

People are only allowed to travel to or within the country for emergency and health reasons, or for work if it is considered essential.

But there is an exemption for people returning to their place of primary residence, so if you happened to be out of the country at the time of lockdown you should be able to return to your Spanish home if you have the right paperwork – which means your NIE or foreign resident’s card. A padron certificate or household bill is NOT considered proof of residency.

And it doesn't apply to those with holiday or second homes in Spain. In fact those caught travelling to a second home are liable to be fined €1,500 if caught.

However travellers will continue to be allowed to leave Spain although there are few scheduled flights now operating and if travelling includes driving through France you will need to have the correct paperwork.

By the way - know is spelt "know" not "now"   it just might appear that way to you 😉

 

Edited May 14, 2020 by Mark .Y.