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The Positive Brexit Thread

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23 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

Cheers, mate!

I haven't been called mate by Van Wink for a couple of weeks now

Glad to see RTB isn't letting the word fall out of disuse ūüėÄ

 

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11 hours ago, PurpleCanary said:

Both the FT and The Guardian have stories today roughly on the same lines, that some EU leaders are worried whether Barnier will give too much ground (in fact I would say giving any ground would be too much) on UK guarantees of over level playing fields etc. The subtext I think is that any negotiator wants to get an agreement, and so in this case Barnier might be tempted to be too trusting. Which would be a fatal mistake with Johnson, as his ex-wives and ex-girlfriends could tell Barnier. And may well even have done...

Backed up by last night's reports of a bust-up.

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15 minutes ago, PurpleCanary said:

Backed up by last night's reports of a bust-up.

Must be getting close to a deal then! Last minute or late-in-the-day histrionics often emerge at such moments in negotiations.

Lots of pizzas getting delivered too and therefore I expect it's all becoming a bit saltyūü§≠.¬†

I'm now expecting we hear something in the next 48 hours.

Edited by sonyc

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22 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Must be getting close to a deal then! Last minute or late-in-the-day histrionics often emerge at such moments in negotiations.

Lots of pizzas getting delivered too and therefore I expect it's all becoming a bit saltyūü§≠.¬†

I'm now expecting we hear something in the next 48 hours.

Ah, the quiet optimist! The problem is that while there can be give and take over, say, fish, and you could even have (as BF has I think said) a very basic deal over that issue, or even trade generally, that could be revisited in 2021, the EU is not going to start trusting Bojo, or any potential Tory leader, any more than they do now, which is to say not at all.

So as I see it the EU needs to have the rules on state aid etc settled now, and that would very much include a cast-iron mechanism for ensuring they are kept. And any cast-iron mechanism is going to be anathema to hardline Brexiters. But I could be wrong!

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1 hour ago, PurpleCanary said:

Ah, the quiet optimist! The problem is that while there can be give and take over, say, fish, and you could even have (as BF has I think said) a very basic deal over that issue, or even trade generally, that could be revisited in 2021, the EU is not going to start trusting Bojo, or any potential Tory leader, any more than they do now, which is to say not at all.

So as I see it the EU needs to have the rules on state aid etc settled now, and that would very much include a cast-iron mechanism for ensuring they are kept. And any cast-iron mechanism is going to be anathema to hardline Brexiters. But I could be wrong!

True, bottom line is that the EU need a big stick with which to beat the UK if it turns out Johnson isn't being totally honest ot sincere. (Or at least a stick proportionate to the benefits the UK get through any deal). What price Sovereignty?

Edited by BigFish

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2 hours ago, PurpleCanary said:

Ah, the quiet optimist! The problem is that while there can be give and take over, say, fish, and you could even have (as BF has I think said) a very basic deal over that issue, or even trade generally, that could be revisited in 2021, the EU is not going to start trusting Bojo, or any potential Tory leader, any more than they do now, which is to say not at all.

So as I see it the EU needs to have the rules on state aid etc settled now, and that would very much include a cast-iron mechanism for ensuring they are kept. And any cast-iron mechanism is going to be anathema to hardline Brexiters. But I could be wrong!

Yes, there are 'harder ' issues like the WA and state aid. Though Northern Ireland does seem to have gone cold? Or maybe I've not kept up to that side story.

My take and read between the lines in all that talk recently about reintroducing the internal markets bill, is that it indicates more positioning (posturing is a better word). I just have a belief that Johnson wants to be seen as tough but.... come the final hour, he just wouldn't press the no deal button. That is optimism I would agree.

As for state aid, it used to be the bane of my life. I hated it.... as someone involved in scripting proposals  and then having to implement EU funding for projects. How many times must I have consulted legal opinion (and paid for it) to navigate the way through it, that no unfair competitive advantage would result!

Edited by sonyc

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1 hour ago, BigFish said:

True, bottom line is that the EU need a big stick with which to beat the UK if it turns out Johnson isn't being totally honest ot sincere. (Or at least a stick proportionate to the benefits the UK get through any deal). What price Sovereignty?

Well I'm glad that you recognise that this is about sovereignty. The getting and keeping of it. Maybe your mates on here will see what you do 

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1 minute ago, Rock The Boat said:

Well I'm glad that you recognise that this is about sovereignty. The getting and keeping of it. Maybe your mates on here will see what you do 

It's a mythical term 'sovereignty'. 

Just a label for folk. That's my opinion.

To actually have a belief that you'll have more freedom being out of Europe than being in it? Really.

Then, RTB you've stated a few times that most remain voters on here are 'losers' so I won't change your view. A loser I certainly am in political life because not once have I voted for anyone who got in!

But life isn't just about winning or losing is it? You can appreciate lots of things and feel fulfilled. Sovereignty as a concept wouldn't appear on my 'bucket' list (even if I had one). Why is such a concept so important to you? This isn't a barb RTB but just a curiosity.

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I'm actually not optimistic although all logic would say that a deal should be done.

Truth is the Breximaniacs that Johnson has to pander too are demanding their cake and eat it with totally unrealistic outdated views on 'sovereignty' whatever that means in the modern interconnected world - yet all deals and access to each other's markets (including fish) will come with a dispute mechanism. I suppose we could be like North Korea.

I'm actually rather beyond caring - the local chamber of commerce had a call around last week - are we prepared for Brexit - yes - we moved our manufacturing out of the UK in 2019! Can't be the European hub or centre outside the SM. Too much needless paperwork and costs both for us and our customers. I suspect some very tough and uncomfortable lessons are about to be learnt sadly not by my boomer generation - those that had it all yet blew it all away in fit of nostalgic nationalism. A generation best forgotten.

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Not optimistic either, Barnier seems to have lost the consensus from member states, now that’s happened I can’t see anything getting agreed.

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8 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Not optimistic either, Barnier seems to have lost the consensus from member states, now that’s happened I can’t see anything getting agreed.

Agreed - and any deal now will be very thin or sub-optimal for anybody - for instance the city/services I think will get clobbered. I suspect that in this scenario the EU and France in particular may just call a spade a spade and let a no-deal unfold in all its awful majesty - which although painful for the EU and catastrophic for UK will eventually lead by necessity to a better more rational solution after the political fallout and blame game in the rump UK.

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Betting odds have put a Brexit trade agreement between Britain and the European Union by the end of this year at at 85%.

According to data from peer-to-peer betting exchange Smarkets, the odds reached an all-time high of 90% on Thursday night before returning to 85% on Friday morning, in what is a fluctuating betting market.

The odds of the transition period being extended beyond January 2021 stayed low at 14%, as the time for negotiations ticks on.

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21 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Agreed - and any deal now will be very thin or sub-optimal for anybody - for instance the city/services I think will get clobbered. I suspect that in this scenario the EU and France in particular may just call a spade a spade and let a no-deal unfold in all its awful majesty - which although painful for the EU and catastrophic for UK will eventually lead by necessity to a better more rational solution after the political fallout and blame game in the rump UK.

I'm still of the view it HAS to be done and therefore it will be. A no deal is ridiculous. I realise this might provide you with an image of me standing in the corner of the room with my fingers in my ears and my eyes shut haha. 

I just cannot believe a no deal will be allowed!

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1 minute ago, sonyc said:

I'm still of the view it HAS to be done and therefore it will be. A no deal is ridiculous. I realise this might provide you with an image of me standing in the corner of the room with my fingers in my ears and my eyes shut haha. 

I just cannot believe a no deal will be allowed!

That's the rational grown-up view SonyC. I have have long realized on the Brexter side we are not however dealing with rational positions!

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6 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

That's the rational grown-up view SonyC. I have have long realized on the Brexter side we are not however dealing with rational positions!

I agree here. I must have asked so many questions of Brexit supporters on here and the questions are either ignored or the response is somehow about something else and vaguely generalistic. There is more real debate about our football on the main thread! At least people there articulately explain their positions. ..(edit: but then, brexit supporters are in quite a minority here and perhaps feel attacked so they don't explain a position for that fear. That's my ultimate take on it).

Edited by sonyc

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57 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Not optimistic either, Barnier seems to have lost the consensus from member states, now that’s happened I can’t see anything getting agreed.

I don't think he has to be honest. A gentle reminder of where the red lines are is not losing the consensus. 

I personally think a lot hinges on the clauses to the IM bill. They get reinserted then I think it is goodbye EU, hello utter chaos. 

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4 minutes ago, sonyc said:

I agree here. I must have asked so many questions of Brexit supporters on here and the questions are either ignored or the response is somehow about something else and vaguely generalistic. There is more real debate about our football on the main thread! At least people there articulately explain their positions. ..(edit: but then, brexit supporters are in quite a minority here and perhaps feel attacked so they don't explain a position for that fear. That's my ultimate take on it).

You do wonder if in 2016 this current likely outcome had been on the ballot (or openly admitted too) vs Remain what would have been the result !

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15 minutes ago, Herman said:

I don't think he has to be honest. A gentle reminder of where the red lines are is not losing the consensus. 

 

I hope your right. I think there is a risk however that we underestimate the political demands on Macron.

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16 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

You do wonder if in 2016 this current likely outcome had been on the ballot (or openly admitted too) vs Remain what would have been the result !

Remain would have won.

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Just now, Van wink said:

I hope your right. I think there is a risk however that we underestimate the political demands on Macron.

And by the same measure those on Johnson. For both it may be politically easier in the short term for no-deal. Johnson has never seemed to think long term in his life !

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2 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

And by the same measure those on Johnson. For both it may be politically easier in the short term for no-deal. Johnson has never seemed to think long term in his life !

I felt that was a given

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1 hour ago, SwindonCanary said:

Betting odds have put a Brexit trade agreement between Britain and the European Union by the end of this year at at 85%.

According to data from peer-to-peer betting exchange Smarkets, the odds reached an all-time high of 90% on Thursday night before returning to 85% on Friday morning, in what is a fluctuating betting market.

The odds of the transition period being extended beyond January 2021 stayed low at 14%, as the time for negotiations ticks on.

oh dear, poor mouse brain.... clueless as ever

he thinks betting odds are a representation of probability

and it is a quote that the liar has doctored to put his spin on it

I would say shame on him, but it is mouse brain so we can hardly expect anything better than lying

here is the full article

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/brexit-betting-odds-put-uk-eu-trade-deal-by-end-of-2020-at-85/ar-BB1bD5hj?MSCC=1603812684

 

Edited by Bill
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Might be vaccine optimism and business opening up stories. Or inside knowledge of a deal I'm guessing. There again depends on size of rise.

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2 hours ago, Bill said:

oh dear, poor mouse brain.... clueless as ever

he thinks betting odds are a representation of probability

and it is a quote that the liar has doctored to put his spin on it

I would say shame on him, but it is mouse brain so we can hardly expect anything better than lying

here is the full article

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/brexit-betting-odds-put-uk-eu-trade-deal-by-end-of-2020-at-85/ar-BB1bD5hj?MSCC=1603812684

 

Billy Liar - Wikipedia

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9 minutes ago, How I Wrote Elastic Man said:

A reminder of what we were told just a few days after the vote 

Boris Johnson article

I think I'd be happy with that. 

Saw this earlier as well. What was promised....

 

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8 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

Well I'm glad that you recognise that this is about sovereignty. The getting and keeping of it. Maybe your mates on here will see what you do 

Sovereignity is an abstract noun. You can't get it or keep it.

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