Bill 1,788 Posted December 4, 2020 23 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said: Cheers, mate! I haven't been called mate by Van Wink for a couple of weeks now Glad to see RTB isn't letting the word fall out of disuse 😀  1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PurpleCanary 5,560 Posted December 4, 2020 11 hours ago, PurpleCanary said: Both the FT and The Guardian have stories today roughly on the same lines, that some EU leaders are worried whether Barnier will give too much ground (in fact I would say giving any ground would be too much) on UK guarantees of over level playing fields etc. The subtext I think is that any negotiator wants to get an agreement, and so in this case Barnier might be tempted to be too trusting. Which would be a fatal mistake with Johnson, as his ex-wives and ex-girlfriends could tell Barnier. And may well even have done... Backed up by last night's reports of a bust-up. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sonyc 5,518 Posted December 4, 2020 (edited) 15 minutes ago, PurpleCanary said: Backed up by last night's reports of a bust-up. Must be getting close to a deal then! Last minute or late-in-the-day histrionics often emerge at such moments in negotiations. Lots of pizzas getting delivered too and therefore I expect it's all becoming a bit saltyðŸ¤. I'm now expecting we hear something in the next 48 hours. Edited December 4, 2020 by sonyc Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PurpleCanary 5,560 Posted December 4, 2020 22 minutes ago, sonyc said: Must be getting close to a deal then! Last minute or late-in-the-day histrionics often emerge at such moments in negotiations. Lots of pizzas getting delivered too and therefore I expect it's all becoming a bit saltyðŸ¤. I'm now expecting we hear something in the next 48 hours. Ah, the quiet optimist! The problem is that while there can be give and take over, say, fish, and you could even have (as BF has I think said) a very basic deal over that issue, or even trade generally, that could be revisited in 2021, the EU is not going to start trusting Bojo, or any potential Tory leader, any more than they do now, which is to say not at all. So as I see it the EU needs to have the rules on state aid etc settled now, and that would very much include a cast-iron mechanism for ensuring they are kept. And any cast-iron mechanism is going to be anathema to hardline Brexiters. But I could be wrong! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BigFish 1,986 Posted December 4, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, PurpleCanary said: Ah, the quiet optimist! The problem is that while there can be give and take over, say, fish, and you could even have (as BF has I think said) a very basic deal over that issue, or even trade generally, that could be revisited in 2021, the EU is not going to start trusting Bojo, or any potential Tory leader, any more than they do now, which is to say not at all. So as I see it the EU needs to have the rules on state aid etc settled now, and that would very much include a cast-iron mechanism for ensuring they are kept. And any cast-iron mechanism is going to be anathema to hardline Brexiters. But I could be wrong! True, bottom line is that the EU need a big stick with which to beat the UK if it turns out Johnson isn't being totally honest ot sincere. (Or at least a stick proportionate to the benefits the UK get through any deal). What price Sovereignty? Edited December 4, 2020 by BigFish Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sonyc 5,518 Posted December 4, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, PurpleCanary said: Ah, the quiet optimist! The problem is that while there can be give and take over, say, fish, and you could even have (as BF has I think said) a very basic deal over that issue, or even trade generally, that could be revisited in 2021, the EU is not going to start trusting Bojo, or any potential Tory leader, any more than they do now, which is to say not at all. So as I see it the EU needs to have the rules on state aid etc settled now, and that would very much include a cast-iron mechanism for ensuring they are kept. And any cast-iron mechanism is going to be anathema to hardline Brexiters. But I could be wrong! Yes, there are 'harder ' issues like the WA and state aid. Though Northern Ireland does seem to have gone cold? Or maybe I've not kept up to that side story. My take and read between the lines in all that talk recently about reintroducing the internal markets bill, is that it indicates more positioning (posturing is a better word). I just have a belief that Johnson wants to be seen as tough but.... come the final hour, he just wouldn't press the no deal button. That is optimism I would agree. As for state aid, it used to be the bane of my life. I hated it.... as someone involved in scripting proposals and then having to implement EU funding for projects. How many times must I have consulted legal opinion (and paid for it) to navigate the way through it, that no unfair competitive advantage would result! Edited December 4, 2020 by sonyc Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rock The Boat 1,332 Posted December 4, 2020 1 hour ago, BigFish said: True, bottom line is that the EU need a big stick with which to beat the UK if it turns out Johnson isn't being totally honest ot sincere. (Or at least a stick proportionate to the benefits the UK get through any deal). What price Sovereignty? Well I'm glad that you recognise that this is about sovereignty. The getting and keeping of it. Maybe your mates on here will see what you do Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sonyc 5,518 Posted December 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Rock The Boat said: Well I'm glad that you recognise that this is about sovereignty. The getting and keeping of it. Maybe your mates on here will see what you do It's a mythical term 'sovereignty'. Just a label for folk. That's my opinion. To actually have a belief that you'll have more freedom being out of Europe than being in it? Really. Then, RTB you've stated a few times that most remain voters on here are 'losers' so I won't change your view. A loser I certainly am in political life because not once have I voted for anyone who got in! But life isn't just about winning or losing is it? You can appreciate lots of things and feel fulfilled. Sovereignty as a concept wouldn't appear on my 'bucket' list (even if I had one). Why is such a concept so important to you? This isn't a barb RTB but just a curiosity. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yellow Fever 3,783 Posted December 4, 2020 I'm actually not optimistic although all logic would say that a deal should be done. Truth is the Breximaniacs that Johnson has to pander too are demanding their cake and eat it with totally unrealistic outdated views on 'sovereignty' whatever that means in the modern interconnected world - yet all deals and access to each other's markets (including fish) will come with a dispute mechanism. I suppose we could be like North Korea. I'm actually rather beyond caring - the local chamber of commerce had a call around last week - are we prepared for Brexit - yes - we moved our manufacturing out of the UK in 2019! Can't be the European hub or centre outside the SM. Too much needless paperwork and costs both for us and our customers. I suspect some very tough and uncomfortable lessons are about to be learnt sadly not by my boomer generation - those that had it all yet blew it all away in fit of nostalgic nationalism. A generation best forgotten. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted December 4, 2020 Not optimistic either, Barnier seems to have lost the consensus from member states, now that’s happened I can’t see anything getting agreed. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yellow Fever 3,783 Posted December 4, 2020 8 minutes ago, Van wink said: Not optimistic either, Barnier seems to have lost the consensus from member states, now that’s happened I can’t see anything getting agreed. Agreed - and any deal now will be very thin or sub-optimal for anybody - for instance the city/services I think will get clobbered. I suspect that in this scenario the EU and France in particular may just call a spade a spade and let a no-deal unfold in all its awful majesty - which although painful for the EU and catastrophic for UK will eventually lead by necessity to a better more rational solution after the political fallout and blame game in the rump UK. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SwindonCanary 455 Posted December 4, 2020 Betting odds have put a Brexit trade agreement between Britain and the European Union by the end of this year at at 85%. According to data from peer-to-peer betting exchange Smarkets, the odds reached an all-time high of 90% on Thursday night before returning to 85% on Friday morning, in what is a fluctuating betting market. The odds of the transition period being extended beyond January 2021 stayed low at 14%, as the time for negotiations ticks on. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sonyc 5,518 Posted December 4, 2020 21 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said: Agreed - and any deal now will be very thin or sub-optimal for anybody - for instance the city/services I think will get clobbered. I suspect that in this scenario the EU and France in particular may just call a spade a spade and let a no-deal unfold in all its awful majesty - which although painful for the EU and catastrophic for UK will eventually lead by necessity to a better more rational solution after the political fallout and blame game in the rump UK. I'm still of the view it HAS to be done and therefore it will be. A no deal is ridiculous. I realise this might provide you with an image of me standing in the corner of the room with my fingers in my ears and my eyes shut haha. I just cannot believe a no deal will be allowed! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yellow Fever 3,783 Posted December 4, 2020 1 minute ago, sonyc said: I'm still of the view it HAS to be done and therefore it will be. A no deal is ridiculous. I realise this might provide you with an image of me standing in the corner of the room with my fingers in my ears and my eyes shut haha. I just cannot believe a no deal will be allowed! That's the rational grown-up view SonyC. I have have long realized on the Brexter side we are not however dealing with rational positions! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sonyc 5,518 Posted December 4, 2020 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said: That's the rational grown-up view SonyC. I have have long realized on the Brexter side we are not however dealing with rational positions! I agree here. I must have asked so many questions of Brexit supporters on here and the questions are either ignored or the response is somehow about something else and vaguely generalistic. There is more real debate about our football on the main thread! At least people there articulately explain their positions. ..(edit: but then, brexit supporters are in quite a minority here and perhaps feel attacked so they don't explain a position for that fear. That's my ultimate take on it). Edited December 4, 2020 by sonyc Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Herman 9,765 Posted December 4, 2020 57 minutes ago, Van wink said: Not optimistic either, Barnier seems to have lost the consensus from member states, now that’s happened I can’t see anything getting agreed. I don't think he has to be honest. A gentle reminder of where the red lines are is not losing the consensus. I personally think a lot hinges on the clauses to the IM bill. They get reinserted then I think it is goodbye EU, hello utter chaos. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yellow Fever 3,783 Posted December 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, sonyc said: I agree here. I must have asked so many questions of Brexit supporters on here and the questions are either ignored or the response is somehow about something else and vaguely generalistic. There is more real debate about our football on the main thread! At least people there articulately explain their positions. ..(edit: but then, brexit supporters are in quite a minority here and perhaps feel attacked so they don't explain a position for that fear. That's my ultimate take on it). You do wonder if in 2016 this current likely outcome had been on the ballot (or openly admitted too) vs Remain what would have been the result ! 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted December 4, 2020 15 minutes ago, Herman said: I don't think he has to be honest. A gentle reminder of where the red lines are is not losing the consensus.  I hope your right. I think there is a risk however that we underestimate the political demands on Macron. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted December 4, 2020 16 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said: You do wonder if in 2016 this current likely outcome had been on the ballot (or openly admitted too) vs Remain what would have been the result ! Remain would have won. 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yellow Fever 3,783 Posted December 4, 2020 Just now, Van wink said: I hope your right. I think there is a risk however that we underestimate the political demands on Macron. And by the same measure those on Johnson. For both it may be politically easier in the short term for no-deal. Johnson has never seemed to think long term in his life ! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted December 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said: And by the same measure those on Johnson. For both it may be politically easier in the short term for no-deal. Johnson has never seemed to think long term in his life ! I felt that was a given 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bill 1,788 Posted December 4, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, SwindonCanary said: Betting odds have put a Brexit trade agreement between Britain and the European Union by the end of this year at at 85%. According to data from peer-to-peer betting exchange Smarkets, the odds reached an all-time high of 90% on Thursday night before returning to 85% on Friday morning, in what is a fluctuating betting market. The odds of the transition period being extended beyond January 2021 stayed low at 14%, as the time for negotiations ticks on. oh dear, poor mouse brain.... clueless as ever he thinks betting odds are a representation of probability and it is a quote that the liar has doctored to put his spin on it I would say shame on him, but it is mouse brain so we can hardly expect anything better than lying here is the full article https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/brexit-betting-odds-put-uk-eu-trade-deal-by-end-of-2020-at-85/ar-BB1bD5hj?MSCC=1603812684  Edited December 4, 2020 by Bill 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted December 4, 2020 FTSE100 dropped at around 14.00 and has bounced back up, make of that what you will. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sonyc 5,518 Posted December 4, 2020 Might be vaccine optimism and business opening up stories. Or inside knowledge of a deal I'm guessing. There again depends on size of rise. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SwindonCanary 455 Posted December 4, 2020 2 hours ago, Bill said: oh dear, poor mouse brain.... clueless as ever he thinks betting odds are a representation of probability and it is a quote that the liar has doctored to put his spin on it I would say shame on him, but it is mouse brain so we can hardly expect anything better than lying here is the full article https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/brexit-betting-odds-put-uk-eu-trade-deal-by-end-of-2020-at-85/ar-BB1bD5hj?MSCC=1603812684 Â Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,187 Posted December 4, 2020 4 hours ago, Yellow Fever said: You do wonder if in 2016 this current likely outcome had been on the ballot (or openly admitted too) vs Remain what would have been the result ! A reminder of what we were told just a few days after the vote Boris Johnson article I think I'd be happy with that. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Herman 9,765 Posted December 4, 2020 9 minutes ago, How I Wrote Elastic Man said: A reminder of what we were told just a few days after the vote Boris Johnson article I think I'd be happy with that. Saw this earlier as well. What was promised....  1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,187 Posted December 4, 2020 1 hour ago, Herman said: Saw this earlier as well. What was promised....  It's almost as if they weren't telling the truth 😯 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BigFish 1,986 Posted December 4, 2020 8 hours ago, Rock The Boat said: Well I'm glad that you recognise that this is about sovereignty. The getting and keeping of it. Maybe your mates on here will see what you do Sovereignity is an abstract noun. You can't get it or keep it. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites