The Cost of Promotion

[unique 466]

So we now know that Wolverhampton Wanderers posted a loss of £80m over the two seasons preceding promotion!

I would suggest that it is high time pundits and journos alike stopped making comparisons between Wolves of last season and this season’s Championship promotion contenders, as the playing field clearly isn’t level.

Were Norwich to secure promotion, the achievement, if compared to Wolves, would be more akin to Leicester winning the Premier League.

[PurpleCanary 6,385]

1 hour ago, unique said:

So we now know that Wolverhampton Wanderers posted a loss of £80m over the two seasons preceding promotion!

I would suggest that it is high time pundits and journos alike stopped making comparisons between Wolves of last season and this season’s Championship promotion contenders, as the playing field clearly isn’t level.

Were Norwich to secure promotion, the achievement, if compared to Wolves, would be more akin to Leicester winning the Premier League.

Just the 55m in the season they got promoted. And Brighton made a loss of 65m in the two seasons leading to their promotion, with a 39m loss in the promotion season, when the total loss allowed over three seasons is 39m...

Brighton said they had stayed within FFP, and Wolves apparently are saying the same. And they may well have done. But this almost ceratinly points up the flaw I have posted on before, to do with the change in the FFP rules, when they went from allowing a 13m loss per season to 39m over three.

The idea was to stop penalising clubs that, say, made a 14m or 15m loss. But it opened the door to an obvious gamble that owners with a risk-takin corporate background were likely to take.

Namely to push the FFP rules to the limit or even beyond over two seasons, using up your entire three-year allowance,  on the assumption that if you didn't get promoted the first season you would the second, and so it wouldn't matter that you couldn't have made any loss the third.

The answer is to go back to the 13m a year rule, but allow a leeway each season of a million or so, so that a club that loses 15m one season can only lose 11m the next. It would stop clubs gambling on using up their entire 39m allowance - or more - in one or two seasons.

[SwindonCanary 457]

If we get to the Premiership, I believe we will have learned from our other visits and not buy too many players who are stars , on big money. I trust our scouting set up, to find more gems from lower leagues. 

[Well b back 3,604]

We will see as surely Villa have now broken the rules over the 3 year period ?. Compared to clubs like Wolves, Villa, Bournemouth, Derby it seems strange that the only club in trouble is Birmingham who seem far less obvious ?.

[GenerationA47 864]

1 hour ago, PurpleCanary said:

The answer is to go back to the 13m a year rule, but allow a leeway each season of a million or so, so that a club that loses 15m one season can only lose 11m the next. 

Aka a rolling 2-year limit of 26m plus 15m limit in any one year ?

Edited March 6, 2019 by GenerationA47
Clarification

[Thirsty Lizard 3,215]

41 minutes ago, Well b back said:

We will see as surely Villa have now broken the rules over the 3 year period ?. Compared to clubs like Wolves, Villa, Bournemouth, Derby it seems strange that the only club in trouble is Birmingham who seem far less obvious ?.

Nothing to do with the lovable Harry Redknapp obviously. 

[splendidrush 720]

1 hour ago, SwindonCanary said:

If we get to the Premiership, I believe we will have learned from our other visits and not buy too many players who are stars , on big money. I trust our scouting set up, to find more gems from lower leagues. 

I'm with you Swindon, I'd rather go with what we have and risk relegation than put the Club in dept for years and not guarantee survival. 

[Yellow Wal 315]

On previous promotions we have needed to strenghten our squad considerably. Would we need to do that this time?

[BobLoz3 609]

I don't think we'll have to strengthen as much as we did in previous years. The recruitment has been so good that we have a number of players who had played at quite a high level before coming here. Think Leitner (Dortmund), Stiepi (Dortmund again), Pukki (Schalke, Celtic), Trybull (Werder Bremen) et al. These guys had all sort of lost their way a bit but, under the guidance of Farke, found form. So I have no qualms with any of them in terms of their potential to play in the Prem.

Plus we have some very good young players who will hopefully continue in the vein of getting out there and playing without fear.

I believe we'll make two or three astute acquisitions if going up, without p!ss!ng our money up the wall as it were, and I trust the recruitment team to do a good job with that. Again.

Edited March 6, 2019 by BobLoz3

[Jack Barak 46]

2 minutes ago, BobLoz3 said:

I don't think we'll have to strengthen as much as we did in previous years. The recruitment has been so good that we have a number of players who had played at quite a high level before coming here. Think Leitner (Dortmund), Stiepi (Dortmund again), Pukki (Schalke, Celtic), Trybull (Werder Bremen) et al. These guys had all sort of lost their way a bit but, under the guidance of Farke, found form. So I have no qualms with any of them in terms of their potential to play in the Prem.

Plus we have some very good young players who will hopefully continue in the vein of getting out there and playing without fear.

I believe we'll make two or three astute acquisitions if going up, without p!ss!ng our money up the wall as it were, and I trust the recruitment team to do a good job with that. Again.

I agree with this. I would expect a lot of our money to be directed to stuffing the academy with prospects from the lower leagues, similar to the Jame's Maddison signing. That and the development of the facilities could set us up for the next ten years. 

 

[ged in the onion bag 961]

Seems we've re-balanced the books significantly from what's said..... Those kind of losses for Wolves put this season's turnaround into starker focus.... what a job they've done at Carrow Road, one that deserves significant bonuses all around in my view whether were promoted or not, the value of the playing stock must have rocketed!   

Individually, but primarily as a collective, this squad is capable of mid-table, if promoted.     We'll need another keeper (how about Joe Hart if not Gunn), a right-back as cover and two forwards....and as we scout wisely, that won't be too expensive.    A centre-half perhaps as cover or to give us the 3-5-2 option.        

The cost of promotion... depends on the value placed on team spirit.... Fulham's value on it was diddly....  truth is, it's priceless!   

 

[wcorkcanary 4,784]

Bit of an aside but as the subject is money,players etc. Was anyone else really impressed with Dusan Tadic for Ajax last night.Matk Hughes didn't play him much at Southampton .He cost 13.5 million but earns just €275,000;p.a. ...under six grand a week!!!  That's peanuts compared with premier wages, and this is for a guy that tore Real a new one( ok, no Ramos). Then there's ji don' Wong ex Sunderland now of Ausburg another who didn't exactly set the world alight when he was over here, scored two great goals v borussia Dortmund the other day , one tenacious, the other a peachy chip. 

The players are out there for decent money and not top wages, just not flavour of the month somewhere. I'd love to take a look at who DF and DW are considering should we get promoted. Some surprises on that list I reckon.

[Woodman 92]

Let's not get ahead of ourselves, but is the homegrown rule different in the Prem?

[Van wink 2,994]

6 hours ago, BobLoz3 said:

I don't think we'll have to strengthen as much as we did in previous years. The recruitment has been so good that we have a number of players who had played at quite a high level before coming here. Think Leitner (Dortmund), Stiepi (Dortmund again), Pukki (Schalke, Celtic), Trybull (Werder Bremen) et al. These guys had all sort of lost their way a bit but, under the guidance of Farke, found form. So I have no qualms with any of them in terms of their potential to play in the Prem.

Plus we have some very good young players who will hopefully continue in the vein of getting out there and playing without fear.

I believe we'll make two or three astute acquisitions if going up, without p!ss!ng our money up the wall as it were, and I trust the recruitment team to do a good job with that. Again.

Getting the right contracts sorted out will be so important, every confidence that will be done.

[Yellow Kiwi 20]

We have proved in the past that spending loads of cash doesn’t ensure survival in the PL as have many others (Fulham this season). With the new financial model at the club I sincerely hope we don’t get dazzled by the bright lights of the top flight and continue on the current path. If we do get promotion I feel DF has earned the right to another season and a half, minimum, in charge. The 'happy clappers' need to shout down the 'MOG's who will undoubtedly come crawling out of the woodwork were we to lose our first five games in the PL. DF and SW deserve our full support. 

[ricardo 8,034]

I don't think we should try to convince ourselves that it will be anything other than very difficult. The top sides are those with the biggest spend and  apart from the very rare occasions when someone smaller (Leicester) has a bit of success, the dominant factor will always be financial. When the big boys come sniffing around it is next to impossible to hold on to your top players.

The recruitment and bringing on of young players has been phenomenal this year but that standard has to be maintained continuously if we want to stay amongst the elite for an extended period.

Edited March 6, 2019 by ricardo
spelling

[Rock The Boat 1,332]

6 hours ago, BobLoz3 said:

I don't think we'll have to strengthen as much as we did in previous years. The recruitment has been so good that we have a number of players who had played at quite a high level before coming here. Think Leitner (Dortmund), Stiepi (Dortmund again), Pukki (Schalke, Celtic), Trybull (Werder Bremen) et al. These guys had all sort of lost their way a bit but, under the guidance of Farke, found form. So I have no qualms with any of them in terms of their potential to play in the Prem.

Plus we have some very good young players who will hopefully continue in the vein of getting out there and playing without fear.

I believe we'll make two or three astute acquisitions if going up, without p!ss!ng our money up the wall as it were, and I trust the recruitment team to do a good job with that. Again.

I think you're right, Bob. History has shown us that our expensive signings all seem to have been reluctant to come here in the first place and it was only the money that persuaded them to be here. At the first sign of difficulty they're plotting their escape route. 

Invest the money in young players. We seem to be good at developing talent and they have something to prove.

[keelansgrandad 6,680]

If we could somehow maintain a promoted then relegated then promoted model I would take that. It will be increasingly difficult to find players who fit our system i.e. not prima donnas, who will make too much difference to what we already have. The likes of Buendia and Hernandez can do a similar job as they do now against some of the lower clubs in the Prem. Pukki will get less chances and the defence will come under greater pressure.

But we have been in this situation before and yet we still keep challenging regularly. So it wouldn't upset me if we came straight back down. But should it happen, it mustn't end with a panic in January and April. We are what we are and will challenge once more.

[Nuff Said 5,961]

IMHO, Webber and the board have taken a more “business-like” approach over the last two seasons. By which I mean they have invested for the longer term, planting seeds which take a while to grow to fruition. No-one panicked when we finished 14th last season (apart from on here). It was recognised that the club was moving in the right direction.

 

Actually, strike that, because if a business found it was suddenly successful (at least in this country), it would be likely to either massively increase the pay of its directors and/or return the profits to shareholders, sadly. I don’t believe that will happen if we do go up. Maybe “organic” would be a better description? 

 

Amyway, if we did reach the promised land of the Premier League, I have little doubt that it would be viewed as an opportunity to lay down more substantial roots, in the form of investment in things that will last and help us grow, rather than short-term gambles on ‘name’ players. Things like the academy and infrastructure improvements like a larger stand which would improve the revenue generating ability of the club for non-football events. It might cost us relegation in the short-term but looking at a further horizon, I have no doubt it is the right approach. And more power to the board for it, it is a surprisingly rare strategy among the top divisions.

[wcorkcanary 4,784]

1 hour ago, keelansgrandad said:

If we could somehow maintain a promoted then relegated then promoted model I would take that. It will be increasingly difficult to find players who fit our system i.e. not prima donnas, who will make too much difference to what we already have. The likes of Buendia and Hernandez can do a similar job as they do now against some of the lower clubs in the Prem. Pukki will get less chances and the defence will come under greater pressure.

But we have been in this situation before and yet we still keep challenging regularly. So it wouldn't upset me if we came straight back down. But should it happen, it mustn't end with a panic in January and April. We are what we are and will challenge once more.

Yep, yep and yep. Which is exactly why I'm intrigued by who is on DF/SW wish list. Their strike rate so far on incoming players is impressive. Excited by what's next, whether it be from the academy or feyenoord reserves, for instance.